Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[becoin]

Gold is not the ultimate money. It has failed miserably, for example, to signal the massive amounts of fiat monetary expansion that's gone on in recent years which is one of its primary roles as a monetary asset.

You're wrong. Keep both gold and bitcoin in your portfolio!

[toknormal]

You're wrong. Keep both gold and bitcoin in your portfolio!

Which type of gold ?

The paper type ? It's available in unlimited supply.

The physical type ? It's un-tradeable in any significant quantity.

These are now two distinct assets which is something most gold bugs have failed to realise. Yet one can't work without the other which means they act as a mutual attenuator on each other's value.

The most favourable trading conditions gold has ever seen since the great depression have just occurred during the last 8 years, yet it lost value. Maybe people who still promote it as a 'safe haven' should start asking themselves why  

[Spaceman_Spiff]

(Sorry Mike. Loved your videos. The theory's perfect, you just identified the wrong asset.

Sorry guys but you don't get it. Bitcoin will not be used the way you imagine. Bitcoin will not be used directly as money between merchants and consumers. Different tokens based on bitcoin and backed by bitcoin will be used in competing payment systems where moving bitcoin on the blockchain will be the settlement layer. Gold will always be the ultimate money. The only but very important advantage of bitcoin compared to gold is that bitcoin is cheaper to audit and provide proof of reserves.

Lightning will use just use bitcoins, so will sidechains. If bitcoin will be the settlement layer, then the currency in use is bitcoin, not some other token.
The only advantage that I see to gold is its immutability.  Gold will always be gold.  Whereas bitcoin represents a form of agreement between people, the code of which is more changeable.  This means bitcoin can evolve, both in a positive or a negative way.  In a way bitcoin is a grand social/game theoretic experiment.  Will a great form of money be born, and will the essential elements of that money stay stable (is the system such that its incentives cause any deviation to 'autocorrect'), or will it in the crumble in the end?

[becoin]

Which type of gold ?

The paper type ? It's available in unlimited supply.

The physical type ? It's un-tradeable in any significant quantity.

Only investment grade physical gold. It is tradeable everywhere!

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Bitcoin will not be used directly as money between merchants and consumers. Different tokens based on bitcoin and backed by bitcoin will be used in competing payment systems where moving bitcoin on the blockchain will be the settlement layer.

I actually agree with this. I see 2 types of "money". One with price stability and goods denomination as its priority which (it necessarily follows) must be inflationary. One for long term store of value which (it necessarily follows) must be deflationary.

I disagree. Why would I as an individual hold anything else than the deflationary kind of money if it is equally easy to store and spend it as the inflationary type.  Paper and digital dollars were easier to transact with than gold coins, bitcoin will hopefully be as easy and cheap (if not more) to transact with as digital fiat.

Which type of gold ?

The paper type ? It's available in unlimited supply.

The physical type ? It's un-tradeable in any significant quantity.

Only investment grade physical gold. It is tradeable everywhere!

The margins gold dealers ask are generally quite high.

[toknormal]

I disagree. Why would I as an individual hold anything else than the deflationary kind of money if it is equally easy to store and spend it as the inflationary type.

Because modern societies don't like prices floating all over the place due to a fixed supply monetary base. It makes it impossible to plan and you'd have loads of manufacturing businesses, for example, simply going bust. Even if you did have a fixed supply they'd just invest in a huge amount of hedging derivatives to minimise their exposure to price volatility and that would inflate the effective money supply instead.

As economies expand, demands for liquidity have to be met. They can either be met by expanding and contracting the money supply (and keeping prices relatively stable) or by price inflation - which will just carry a similar cost in terms of adverse commercial conditions, bankruptcies and localised losses. If you're a car manufacturer, you're more interested in the "stable price" type of money. If you're a long term saver then you're more interested in the "stable supply" type of money. There have always been these two types and always will be.

Only investment grade physical gold. It is tradeable everywhere!

Well you can't sell the gold bar under your bed to a customer on the other side of the planet and deliver it at the same time, so it isn't tradable everywhere. You can transfer ownership to them instantly but not possession.

The whole basis of gold's value traditionally is that it was a bearer token where possession and ownership were synonymous. If you like, in that sense it was the "physical bitcoin" of its day. But it is no longer able to perform that role because we've moved to electronic platforms and left the physical behind. That's the reason it failed to gain anything over the last 8 years of money printing.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I disagree. Why would I as an individual hold anything else than the deflationary kind of money if it is equally easy to store and spend it as the inflationary type.

Because modern societies don't like prices floating all over the place due to a fixed supply monetary base. It makes it impossible to plan and you'd have loads of manufacturing businesses, for example, simply going bust. Even if you did have a fixed supply they'd just invest in a huge amount of hedging derivatives to minimise their exposure to price volatility and that would inflate the effective money supply instead.

As economies expand, demands for liquidity have to be met. They can either be met by expanding and contracting the money supply (and keeping prices relatively stable) or by price inflation - which will just carry a similar cost in terms of adverse commercial conditions, bankruptcies and localised losses. If you're a car manufacturer, you're more interested in the "stable price" type of money. If you're a long term saver then you're more interested in the "stable supply" type of money. There have always been these two types and always will be.

Thanks for the reply, I ll have to think this over.

[toknormal]

Thanks for the reply, I ll have to think this over.

Naeborra. I had to 'think it over' as well.

It's sometimes useful to see these two sides to monetary measure another way...in terms of price denomination. Fiat currency is really just a basis for denominating prices rather than storing value. Just a number. If people want to store value over time, it's their responsibility to convert their fiat denominated credit (just a number) into a tangible monetary commodity which may be a completely different thing.

For example, if you look around the world, many national currencies have weights, measures or metals as their name. Peseta, Pound, Nickel etc. But these are now just price denomination units and no longer bear any relation to their original commodity base. All the same, it's the commodity you still need to hold to store value. As its value increases, more "denominational units" will be created to reflect that new value.

Here's Christine Lagarde talking about the importance of price denomination in the context of the Remnimbi and the IMF's SDR.

[ImI]

china seems to be serious...

[AlexGR]

Huobi 666.53

[ImI]

stamp very reluctant to move even one bit

[JayJuanGee]

(Sorry Mike. Loved your videos. The theory's perfect, you just identified the wrong asset.

Sorry guys but you don't get it. Bitcoin will not be used the way you imagine. Bitcoin will not be used directly as money between merchants and consumers. Different tokens based on bitcoin and backed by bitcoin will be used in competing payment systems where moving bitcoin on the blockchain will be the settlement layer. Gold will always be the ultimate money. The only but very important advantage of bitcoin compared to gold is that bitcoin is cheaper to audit and provide proof of reserves.

Whoaza Becoin.   Did someone, such as Aztec Miner, take over your account to proclaim the supposed superior value of PMs?

We don't know all the ways that cryptos are going to evolve in the future in order to assess which asset class is going to be preferred; however, it seems a bit much to be suggesting that gold is the best and is going to continue to be the best because it has always been the best....

The fact of the matter is that bitcoin is likely a game changer, but we don't know how long it is going to take to play out - and in that regard, it could take a long time before we know how bitcoin is going to play out or if could possibly get stuffed into obscurity (which seems a bit doubtful, at this point).

[Paashaas]

a few more of these nice little green dildo's...then KABOOM!

[Karartma1]

Weekend pump incomming!

Oh, by the way, you were right! I forgot where I read about a pump, it was you. Now reading you last post I remembered.
It's so nice to wake up in the morning and seeing all those green candles.
I want to see past $700 and then I'm a happy guy (quoting my dear George Carlin)

[Elwar]

(Sorry Mike. Loved your videos. The theory's perfect, you just identified the wrong asset.

Sorry guys but you don't get it. Bitcoin will not be used the way you imagine. Bitcoin will not be used directly as money between merchants and consumers. Different tokens based on bitcoin and backed by bitcoin will be used in competing payment systems where moving bitcoin on the blockchain will be the settlement layer. Gold will always be the ultimate money. The only but very important advantage of bitcoin compared to gold is that bitcoin is cheaper to audit and provide proof of reserves.

I think the most likely scenario, at least in the short term, is that most companies will move more toward their own payment system (gift cards) for payment at their stores. More people will use it and more tools will become available so you can pay at any store with any payment system you like. Taking the onus off of the retailer for payment processing and moving it to a new third party layer.

[mymenace]

(Sorry Mike. Loved your videos. The theory's perfect, you just identified the wrong asset.

Sorry guys but you don't get it. Bitcoin will not be used the way you imagine. Bitcoin will not be used directly as money between merchants and consumers. Different tokens based on bitcoin and backed by bitcoin will be used in competing payment systems where moving bitcoin on the blockchain will be the settlement layer. Gold will always be the ultimate money. The only but very important advantage of bitcoin compared to gold is that bitcoin is cheaper to audit and provide proof of reserves.

I think the most likely scenario, at least in the short term, is that most companies will move more toward their own payment system (gift cards) for payment at their stores. More people will use it and more tools will become available so you can pay at any store with any payment system you like. Taking the onus off of the retailer for payment processing and moving it to a new third party layer.

exactly right i agree

this is great as bitcoin is sidechanied and value increase's in those sidechains so does bitcoin....wooohoo

this would make bitcoin like the digital gold of side chains used as a currency reserve..decentralized

luvin it

[Etalia]

Can someone explain why dump 4500K BTC on the market with such slippage. Are there not trading programs that will slice the order up into smaller, random appearing pieces and consume tasty bids from time to time until the whole order is filled? One could do that manually too.

[becoin]

Can someone explain why dump 4500K BTC on the market with such slippage.

Where did you see this dump?

[rich93]

Can someone explain why dump 4500K BTC on the market with such slippage.

Where did you see this dump?

He's probably talking about one of the Chinese exchanges like OKcoin that has no trading fees. There is always huge apparent volume on them, but it's most likely fake. There have been tens of thousands of coins apparently dumped there in the previous few hours, but there have also been tens of thousands apparently bought there in the last few hours. During those few hours none of the equivalent volume bars of Bitfinex were even 100 coins high, they were in tens of Bitcoins high.

[ImI]

ok, last 200 "wall" on stamp at 652$ got bought. lets see how long it takes him to reload and bring up the next 200.