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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26406718 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
d_eddie
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December 28, 2017, 11:09:06 PM

Sorry for posting way off topic this morning, I was in panic mode. I know you guys are always on here, and I appreciate your help. Looks like I actually got my coins back now. (mind blown) I got on this morning to send a transaction, I was watching it on the blockchain, 2 hours later. A separate transaction appeared sending my remaining coins to unknown address. Which turns out, is one of my own hidden addresses. I know change can be sent back to hidden addresses, my understanding is it's always in the same Transaction ID though. This transaction shows on the blockchain with it's own ID but doesn't show in my wallet.

That's the first time I've ever seen a backdoor virus detected on this pc and I definitely did not turn defender off myself. Maybe that's just a coincidence and it was leading to draw the wrong conclusions. I dunno. I did a format and reinstall of windows 3 days ago because windows was reporting corrupt system files when trying to update. I've only installed programs I consider trustworthy since, so I'm really surprised to find a backdoor got on here. Anyway, think I'm going to take a nap when my blood pressure returns to normal.
Wheeeew!!!
Some celebration is in order, methinks. Pull out the good stuff!  Grin
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December 28, 2017, 11:12:01 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?
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December 28, 2017, 11:15:45 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30FKrP6BrnI&feature=youtu.be

These odd transactions multiple people are reporting about today
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December 28, 2017, 11:16:57 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

They provide data/application service for the devices but never your keys.  So they could recover.  But if they did dissapear ever, you need to always write down your private key, i.e. 12 words or more so you could recover to another type of device or wallet.

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December 28, 2017, 11:18:51 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

No need to worry. If the TREZOR company goes bust, just enter your seed in a Ledger. They are compatible. It's a standard. There will always be a way to get to your coins from your seed. Plus, the servers of these companies don't know (and can't know, by design) your seed or your private keys.
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December 28, 2017, 11:20:44 PM

Sorry for posting way off topic this morning, I was in panic mode. I know you guys are always on here, and I appreciate your help. Looks like I actually got my coins back now. (mind blown) I got on this morning to send a transaction, I was watching it on the blockchain, 2 hours later. A separate transaction appeared sending my remaining coins to unknown address. Which turns out, is one of my own hidden addresses. I know change can be sent back to hidden addresses, my understanding is it's always in the same Transaction ID though. This transaction shows on the blockchain with it's own ID but doesn't show in my wallet.

That's the first time I've ever seen a backdoor virus detected on this pc and I definitely did not turn defender off myself. Maybe that's just a coincidence and it was leading to draw the wrong conclusions. I dunno. I did a format and reinstall of windows 3 days ago because windows was reporting corrupt system files when trying to update. I've only installed programs I consider trustworthy since, so I'm really surprised to find a backdoor got on here. Anyway, think I'm going to take a nap when my blood pressure returns to normal.
Wheeeew!!!
Some celebration is in order, methinks. Pull out the good stuff!  Grin

On a sour note, the second attempt to double spend that transaction I send a .1 btc fee. A little overkill, lmao. Of course that's the one that went through. Miners are making a killing today.
RejectedBanana
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December 28, 2017, 11:23:12 PM



Bitcoin was a $5-10 billion market at most in late 2013, concentrated on a handful of exchanges, most infamously Mt Gox, which was manipulated by Karpeles' Willie bot followed by the catastrophic loss of Bitcoin and collapse of the whole exchange and fragile ecosystem. You know this, Tera.

Bitcoin is now at least a $200B market cap by itself and has established itself as the trading foundation of an overall crypto market of half a trillion and is even legal tender in Japan of all places, in spite of Mt Gox. There are hundreds of exchanges in dozens of countries and massive infrastructure and overhead now invested in Bitcoin's future. Sure there are many who want to see it fail, mainly governments, regulators and old-school investors, but there are now far too many devoted to seeing it succeed.

I understand the importance of chronic unease and cautious optimism in such a volatile investment. But now it just seems you are just trying to incite doom and gloom, you are trying to instill fear, uncertainty and doubt, you are searching for patterns to corroborate your... hope, is it?? Hope that Bitcoin will continue to fall?  Because it doesn't just seem like fear driving your prognostications. It actually seems like you seriously hoping Bitcoin will stumble and fall into a multi-year bear market and retest old lows. Is this all stemming from regret? Regret that you didn't buy enough to exit this whole game by now and the hope that you can scoop up some more cheap coin?

Rough patches remain ahead, no doubt, but the days of $300 or $3000 coin are Christmas past.

I understand you sentiments, as someone who must be losing big right now. However, they are not true. I did not miss out on this run. I made a fortune.
Why do I share TA like this?  I do it because I observed a pattern or because I believe in something. I actually do it in both directions. I dont do it becasue I want to manipulate the market. I do it either to spark up a conversation, have someone prove me wrong, or to get credit when something I said comes true. So far I'm on a good run. First I called a breakout above 17000 and then that a stop order at 18800 would be a good idea, then later on after the second drop I called a floor at 11700, and then I called a top at 16000. Next I'm calling a bounce at 8000. It's probably going to come true. In my mind all these things about the market needing to correct and test lows are simply pieces of inevitable logic, are healthy, and have nothing to do with fear or pessimism or malice. I dont know if we're going to enter a 3 year crypto winter like the chart above but I noticed that two segments of the chart looked almost exactly the same and wanted to stir up the opinions of analysts on here.

How is this TA?



I see this is as the most realistic shape if there is going to be another bubble. Not months, years. The shape looks good at this will time for the USD to take over from China and for the coders to fix the throughput issues.
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December 28, 2017, 11:23:34 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

No need to worry. If the TREZOR company goes bust, just enter your seed in a Ledger. They are compatible. It's a standard. There will always be a way to get to your coins from your seed. Plus, the servers of these companies don't know (and can't know, by design) your seed or your private keys.

Which HW wallets do you like more? I have a ledger and have not used a Trezor.
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December 28, 2017, 11:24:26 PM

Sorry for posting way off topic this morning, I was in panic mode. I know you guys are always on here, and I appreciate your help. Looks like I actually got my coins back now. (mind blown) I got on this morning to send a transaction, I was watching it on the blockchain, 2 hours later. A separate transaction appeared sending my remaining coins to unknown address. Which turns out, is one of my own hidden addresses. I know change can be sent back to hidden addresses, my understanding is it's always in the same Transaction ID though. This transaction shows on the blockchain with it's own ID but doesn't show in my wallet.

That's the first time I've ever seen a backdoor virus detected on this pc and I definitely did not turn defender off myself. Maybe that's just a coincidence and it was leading to draw the wrong conclusions. I dunno. I did a format and reinstall of windows 3 days ago because windows was reporting corrupt system files when trying to update. I've only installed programs I consider trustworthy since, so I'm really surprised to find a backdoor got on here. Anyway, think I'm going to take a nap when my blood pressure returns to normal.
Wheeeew!!!
Some celebration is in order, methinks. Pull out the good stuff!  Grin

On a sour note, the second attempt to double spend that transaction I send a .1 btc fee. A little overkill, lmao. Of course that's the one that went through. Miners are making a killing today.

 Okay, better save the good stuff for another day Wink
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December 28, 2017, 11:26:28 PM

Had my Trezors since early 2015 and they have been sitting on my desk behind my monitor for the past 2 years collecting dust.   Needless to say, I got out of the crypto scene and just focused on work until this year.   Never even took them out of the little boxes until I saw in Dec 17 that the price of btc hit 19k !

After cleaning the dust off the boxes, you know I was kind of nervous because I haven't even plugged them in almost 2 years.  Wondered if the little display would work and so forth.  I have my seeds so was no big deal.   Well, plugged the first one in and voila worked like a champ but needed updates badly... was on like ver 1.2 or earlier.   Unplugged and held both buttons down and plugged back in.  Updated flawlessly.  Same with the 2nd one.

There was all my BTC and what the heck there's BCH/BitcoinGold ready to be split in their nice little tool.   Split both coins and sent them to exchanges to be exchanged.

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December 28, 2017, 11:27:37 PM

I will pay 20% CGT - but a penny more and they will find out just what a determined bastard I can be.

I seriously doubt they'll bother asking for anything else. For them to want more you'd have to voluntarily hand over hundreds of pages nominating hundreds of trades per day. I'm sure they'll be dead pleased with the CGT windfall and leave it there.

I agree. Thankfully, HMRC isn't like the US IRS - I know them, I used to live in NYC and the IRS can get nasty.

It's likely they will accept CGT, IMO, yep.  I truthfully don't know all of my trades in any case - what with Gox, Cryptsy and originally buying BTC via OK Pay to Japan etc... I just didn't have (and cannot now get) records of all purchases and certainly cannot work out all crypto trading stuff for the past five years.

But BTC bought is possible to (mostly) prove and BTC sold, I am not hiding.

It's: 'I put this in, and I have taken this out - here are my bank records'. I didn't take a penny out until this tax year anyway.

20% is not so bad, I can live with that (and it's totally honest - I have no need to hide stuff).  My accountant says they can go for 'you're a trader' but I think they won't - I didn't live off it, until recently I couldn't have.

If they get shitty, I can afford a very good team of lawyers, I will be a serious pain in their rear end.  I am volunteering payment, why would they bother?
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December 28, 2017, 11:28:19 PM

Sorry for posting way off topic this morning, I was in panic mode. I know you guys are always on here, and I appreciate your help. Looks like I actually got my coins back now. (mind blown) I got on this morning to send a transaction, I was watching it on the blockchain, 2 hours later. A separate transaction appeared sending my remaining coins to unknown address. Which turns out, is one of my own hidden addresses. I know change can be sent back to hidden addresses, my understanding is it's always in the same Transaction ID though. This transaction shows on the blockchain with it's own ID but doesn't show in my wallet.

That's the first time I've ever seen a backdoor virus detected on this pc and I definitely did not turn defender off myself. Maybe that's just a coincidence and it was leading to draw the wrong conclusions. I dunno. I did a format and reinstall of windows 3 days ago because windows was reporting corrupt system files when trying to update. I've only installed programs I consider trustworthy since, so I'm really surprised to find a backdoor got on here. Anyway, think I'm going to take a nap when my blood pressure returns to normal.

Congratulations!!
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December 28, 2017, 11:30:47 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

No need to worry. If the TREZOR company goes bust, just enter your seed in a Ledger. They are compatible. It's a standard. There will always be a way to get to your coins from your seed. Plus, the servers of these companies don't know (and can't know, by design) your seed or your private keys.

You can recover your Trezor/Ledger seeds in Electrum, too. First thing I tested when I got mine. Offline of course.
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December 28, 2017, 11:33:25 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

pretty sure if you have your BIP39 seed you are good
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December 28, 2017, 11:34:21 PM

Sorry for posting way off topic this morning, I was in panic mode. I know you guys are always on here, and I appreciate your help. Looks like I actually got my coins back now. (mind blown) I got on this morning to send a transaction, I was watching it on the blockchain, 2 hours later. A separate transaction appeared sending my remaining coins to unknown address. Which turns out, is one of my own hidden addresses. I know change can be sent back to hidden addresses, my understanding is it's always in the same Transaction ID though. This transaction shows on the blockchain with it's own ID but doesn't show in my wallet.

That's the first time I've ever seen a backdoor virus detected on this pc and I definitely did not turn defender off myself. Maybe that's just a coincidence and it was leading to draw the wrong conclusions. I dunno. I did a format and reinstall of windows 3 days ago because windows was reporting corrupt system files when trying to update. I've only installed programs I consider trustworthy since, so I'm really surprised to find a backdoor got on here. Anyway, think I'm going to take a nap when my blood pressure returns to normal.

Thank fuck for that. Get yourself a linux partition to start with.
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December 28, 2017, 11:37:40 PM

There, I sold .01BTC. That should make this down trend reverse. Roll Eyes

Same feeling here. I need to sell something for price to go up again.


Seems crazy as fuck to see guys in this thread doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing.. .


Crazy


Fuck

Each of us, reading this thread, should realize that we buy on the way down and sell on the way up, not the opposite.

Helrow??

Agreed! Panic selling when price going down is the noobs mistake.

(edit: though I know the feeling very well of doing a trade and then the price going the other way just because you did it!  Wink  Grin )

Perhaps we finally agree about something... hahahahahaha   unless you got hit in the head by an asteroid over the christmas weekend?   Cheesy Cheesy



I'm curious if you hold all your bitcoin on an exchange ready for good moments to buy and sell?


Up until about early 2017, I used to keep about 50% of my bitcoin (including my bitcoin investment allocated funds - that converted to fiat) on exchanges, and I think that some of that was merely out of convenience in moving it around, and a kind of happen-stance - and could have also been motivated by some insecurities from myself and the bitcoin price regarding whether some kind of an event might cause me to want to liquidate a decent quantity of BTC all at once.

Seems that during this year, and perhaps, mostly in the past several months, I had to tweak my perspective, and even to redistribute a lot of my risk off of exchanges while still attempting to maintain my ongoing trading strategy of selling about 1% of the total value of my BTC for every 10% rise in bitcoin price (and to have that money and to use it to buy BTC back during likely price drops).  

Accordingly, my newer approach has been somewhat motivated by BTC price rises that went 3x to 4x beyond my previously most bullish of expectations, and so I have moved additional value off of exchanges, and I have further considered that I don't really need those BTC on exchanges anyhow, because it is not likely that I am going to sell more than a certain amount anyhow because I have tweaked some of my thinking regarding proportions of BTC to fiat that I am going to maintain in my BTC portfolio.

Right now, I have kept enough value on exchanges in order to mostly keep within my system.  I have enough BTC to sell up to about $35k - and a bit more in a few cases, and I have enough  dollars to buy down to about $3k, which would be about an 85% correction (which may also be a bit of an overkill, but I feel a bit of comfort to currently be prepared for such).  I also could move more value of BTC or dollars onto exchanges if either the price goes beyond reasonable expectations or if I decide to tweak my strategy a bit based on changes in my overall viewpoint(s).  

I think that the punchline is that currently, I have somewhere between 15% to 20% of total value on exchanges, as compared with my previous approximately 50% status.



My own trading style necessitates that I don't hold anything on an exchange, (because I have lost funds from exchange hacks which is not nice really and I decided not to risk it happening again).

I have had some losses too, yet I am considering that my strategy has allowed me to gain more than I lost, and maybe even playing some kind of role in both understanding and facilitating the existing bitcoin trading/market system.

I believe that active and interactive engagement does allow for a kind of learning that cannot come from a less engaging style - such as keeping all value in cold storage.

I don't have any beef with folks who choose to take the 100% cold storage approach because in the end that approach may result in very decent results for that person - including whatever timeline s/he may have for liquidating.



Also is selling any real amount of your stash a tax event? For me it is. This all makes trading in and out quite a difficult business potentially.

Yep.  Problematic area, and changing laws and differing between jurisdictions.

Because of these factors I only trade very infrequently, ie last time I bought in any decent amount bitcoin was about $300. I have cashed out some at a few different levels but because like I say tax makes me hesitate to do more when I otherwise might have.  But I might only trade once, twice or less in a year.

Yep.... Some of the laws are simply draconian... and accounting burdens and off putting because of their lack of clarity and varying interpretations that seem to differ from time to time.

However I do a lot more trading in and out using other crypto, mainly Dash with smaller amounts, mainly for fun, but also because I can profit pretty well generally. I chose Dash because I really like it but any other pair with decent liquidity could do it. This is good because most the time I don't need to get carried away thinking about fiat  and tax. I don't use leverage and so if price goes the wrong way I can be patient. I like bitcoin and Dash so holding either bags if fine for me.

Also, seems to be a matter of interpretation about whether trading crypto assets is materially different from trading fiat that has not been cashed out.  And, we can do what we believe is less burdensome in terms of accounting, I suppose.

Anyway thought I'd give you the chance to elaborate a bit more, which I'd be interested in hearing. Cheers

Of course, each of us have our experiences, and frequently, I am learning and tweaking my approach when I interact with posters and sometimes reconsider my approach in light of the varying approaches and viewpoints of others.  Hopefully, I have provided you some personal details that you consider helpful to your own thinking on the topic.
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December 28, 2017, 11:37:47 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

No need to worry. If the TREZOR company goes bust, just enter your seed in a Ledger. They are compatible. It's a standard. There will always be a way to get to your coins from your seed. Plus, the servers of these companies don't know (and can't know, by design) your seed or your private keys.

Which HW wallets do you like more? I have a ledger and have not used a Trezor.

here is a comparison

https://youtu.be/SKWYO3Qh79A
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December 28, 2017, 11:38:16 PM


snip


Buying and selling dash is not a taxable event for you? How is that?

Well I understood you pay captial gains when there is a fiat gain in value at the time when you dispose it, ie sell it for fiat. I'm in the UK. I hope I got that right. If I have to proof every single trade between Dash and Bitcoin or whatever other crypto I don't know how on earth I could even start to do that  Huh Some exchanges I have used no longer even exist.



I sympathise, in UK too. 

Since HMRC advice is so sketchy (it goes back to a vague 2014 reference effectively saying 'we will treat it all on a case-by-case basis') we are in the dark.

I only cash out in BTC and only (originally) went in via BTC so, I am asking my accountant to simply list all fiat 'in' events and fiat 'out' events and hoping it will be just CGT.  But be aware they can see it as 'badge of trade' and charge as though it was income if they think you're a trader.

I am hoping if I cough up CGT and list only Bitcoin bought and sold and just pay up, they will accept it.

If not, I will find others here in the same position and suggest we club together to get a QC to fight HMRC - as paying 45% income tax will be too much to let pass.

I know you and I have different 'cryptos of choice' but we may end up in the same expensive boat, under the same threat of a massive tax bill.

Odds on they will just take the CGT, but if not...  Let's consider a fight - I think we can probably both afford to chip in for a legal case with others, which they won't have the staff or competence to want to bother with.

Sometimes Dashheads and Moneroans can perhaps find common cause ;-)


Hey kurious, Sounds similar to my take on it too. Yes I could team up with a Moneron for a cause like  that!

Cheers
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December 28, 2017, 11:38:41 PM
Last edit: December 29, 2017, 11:00:47 PM by micgoossens

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

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MERRY XMAS TO Y'ALL     AND GOOD LUCK
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December 28, 2017, 11:40:29 PM

15125. Bought thy Fucking dip! Cheesy

Unfortunately I believe we might retest $13-14k.

Nailed it.

Look at you.

Just cannot resist patting yourself on the back for some nearly meaningless prediction that had about a 50% chance of happening.    Roll Eyes


Sure, once it happens, then it becomes 100% - but still remains a BIG

SO

FUCKING

WHAT?
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