Odds seem against three years, and odds seem against 3 months, too, but seems that each are within a similar probabilities range.
Absolutely... 3 months to 3 years is a wide range: just a bell curve of probabilty .
So maybe from what seems really hard to forecast, and those range defining guesses, we can estimate a period of ~18 months between 5k and 10k ?
Can you live with that ? I am guessing that most ppl find it difficult to accept, and they might be at risk of overtrading through boredom.
Actually, if you agree that 3 months and 3 years are merely a bundle of probabilities that are on a bell curve, then agreeing to a compromise, some point in the middle could become the most probable, but that still does not make the most probable one as to being the scenario that actually plays out or that we should place 100% on that most like scenario... Also the bell curve could be skewed to one side or another from each persons perspective, which might make a spot on one end or another end of the range to be more likely.
Hypothetically, let's say that for whatever reason, there is decent evidence to conclude that 13.3months has the highest score, but even with that "high score" might only add up to 35% or something like that, right?
I don't know exactly how the points on the graph plot out, but I know that factors in the world could change the shape of the "bell" curve and the peaks of such curves (and even whether it is a bell curve or a skewed curve or double hump curve) to change at time 1, time 2 and time 3, etc etc.
The most practical way of betting such curves would be to attempt to reflect the probability assignments that you give to each one, and maybe playing some probabilities a little bit higher than others, but never really betting BIG on any one scenario or narrow set of scenarios, merely because on one day or over time, it appears that that narrow set of outcome possibilities is viewed to be largely more likely.
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Jay can do 18 months standing on his head. As for me, price action has become secondary to meme action and ignoring people.
Actually, you are correct to suggest that my investment into bitcoin has been planned for the long-term, so the plan plays out for the long-term too.
Actually, when I got into bitcoin, I was thinking that my investment timeline would be for several years, such as a supplemental retirement fund, so I did not develop any exit strategy, beyond just planning long term. None of the fundamentals of bitcoin have changed or caused any reason to change the plan, and surely it helps to be in sufficient profits that even a dip to $1k would still be profitable (even though concededly, it would not be a good thing to drop 1/8th of today's price or anything even approaching that kind of low price range).
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