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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 34 (28.1%)
2020 - 48 (39.7%)
2021 - 30 (24.8%)
2022 - 5 (4.1%)
2023 - 1 (0.8%)
Never - 3 (2.5%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21173910 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
HI-TEC99
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August 06, 2018, 08:48:26 PM
Last edit: August 06, 2018, 09:02:11 PM by HI-TEC99

For certain purposes it's necessary to determine the logical cross-bearings of the concepts which we take for granted. But honestly, is there a single not obvious thing in here. You really thought I needed a reintroduction to basic financial literacy by way of cringe-y homespun wisdoms?

Now I'm even more morose!

Geeze. Sorry about that. I didn't mean to bum you out.

I'll admit the writing style is a little "cringe-y and homespun" but it left me feeling happy after reading it.

Maybe xhomerx10's suggestion will work better.

Maybe not, the Huffington Post review warns it contains no "soft puffy cloud prancing unicorns offering hugs on colorful rainbows".


https://www.huffingtonpost.com/tree-franklyn/the-subtle-art-of-not-giv_b_12012008.html?guccounter=1

Quote
There are no soft puffy cloud prancing unicorns offering hugs on colorful rainbows, only F-bomb explosions and brutal smack-you-in-the-face reality slaps.

What good's that to bitcoiners? We want unicorns.








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JayJuanGee
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August 06, 2018, 08:54:00 PM

Private jets, helicopters...
ARE YOU NOT INTO TRAINS?

Literally too pedestrian.

How are we going to keep the riff-raff out if we throw the party somewhere accessible via train ?!??

5 - 10 bitcoin ownership MINIMUM entry?

If I don't have 5 or 10 bitcoin? And now price very bad. I am sad.


Our strategy should not be so anxious as to expect $20k too soon, and there is some value to having bitcoin price lower in order to be able to continue to accumulate a decent position, such as 5 to 10 btc.  Just a couple years ago, you could have gotten 10 BTC for around $2,500, and now it is going to cost you nearly $70k.... So, yeah, once bitcoin goes above $20k, and perhaps significantly stays above $20k, then $200k entrance point for the double digit BTC stash...   So, easier to attempt to enter bitcoin now, and continue to accumulate - even if the price goes down more from here for a short period of time - hopefully not another 3 years of down from here, but you never know in bitcoinlandia.
JayJuanGee
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August 06, 2018, 08:56:08 PM

A high entrance fee like that will keep the riff-raff out. I'll be the banker.

Naw dude, just sign the invitation from a funded-enough address, to have the address/location/country/planet/galaxy revealed.

No need for bankers or people to HODL admission funds :-)

We have the technology.

just don't bring a phone with funds to this future meetup, witness recent SIM-jacking of crypto conferences attendees (lost $5 mil).

Do you have a link?
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August 06, 2018, 08:58:11 PM

Our strategy should not be so anxious as to expect $20k too soon
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August 06, 2018, 09:00:45 PM

Interesting observation from Yuval Noah Harari, found within a treatise on society's long-standing relationship with Fake News:

"You might argue that, at least in some cases, it is possible to organise people effectively through consensual agreements rather than through fictions and myths. Thus in the economic sphere, money and corporations bind people together far more effectively than any god or holy book, even though everyone knows that they are just a human convention. In the case of a holy book, a true believer would say “I believe that the book is sacred” while, in the case of the dollar, a true believer would say only that “I believe that other people believe that the dollar is valuable”. It is obvious that the dollar is just a human creation, yet people all over the world respect it. If so, why can’t humans abandon all myths and fictions, and organise themselves on the basis of consensual conventions such as the dollar?

Such conventions, however, are not clearly distinct from fiction. The difference between holy books and money, for example, is far smaller than it may seem at first sight. When most people see a dollar bill, they forget that it is just a human convention. As they see the green piece of paper with the picture of the dead white man, they see it as something valuable in and of itself. Hence in practice there is no strict division between knowing that something is just a human convention and believing that something is inherently valuable. In many cases, people are ambiguous or forgetful about this division."

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/aug/05/yuval-noah-harari-extract-fake-news-sapiens-homo-deus
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August 06, 2018, 09:08:17 PM

Only 5-10 coins? I thought that was riffraff.

100 coins minimum.  Cool

Edit:

On second thought, no one with any real amount of coins would keep more than a couple dozen in any single wallet.

10 coins it is I guess.


100 coins is a lot of coins these days.  Even 10 coins seems to be a decent stash... especially if we can get another upwards BTC price move and if the person can still maintain 10 coins in his possession, even at higher BTC prices. 

Let's say, for example, that a person currently has 12 bitcoins, but if the price goes up to $20k then that person might only have 11 coins and then $40k only 10 coins.. so it can be difficult to maintain a certain quantity of coins when the BTC price goes up.. so in my thinking, any rational HODLer has to consider starting with a quantity of bitcoins that is a bit of a higher number of coins that s/he aspires to maintain at target higher prices.

I recall in about early to mid 2014, I had responded to one of rptiela's posts about some party or gathering that he was planning to have (perhaps at his castle), and since I was still early into bitcoin, my goal, at that time, was to attempt to acquire 30 coins in 6 to 12 months.. something like that. 

When I mentioned that I might want to consider his party, and rptiela asked me about how many coins I had and he gave me some snooty response that there was going to be a 100 coins minimum to be invited to any of his parties.. blah blah blah..   

Sometimes the scammiest of folks are not only engaging in exclusivity considerations, but also trying to figure out ways to target folks who are dumb enough to flaunt there quantity of coins.  Right around that same time, rptiela claimed that he had lost his laptop in the sauna of a bitcoin conference hotel, and there were thousands of coins on there.. something dumb like that.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Cheesy Cheesy
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August 06, 2018, 09:15:36 PM

ot:
Quote
Climate change denial – involves denial, dismissal, unwarranted doubt or contrarian views which depart from the scientific consensus on climate change, including the extent to which it is caused by humans,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_topics_characterized_as_pseudoscience
lots of these are obvious wierd, but wtf is that^ authoritarian socialist claptrap

on topic: also includes this lol
Quote
Technical analysis ... The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.[13] It is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[14]

TA is probably the only pseudoscience where if enough people believe in it, then it becomes true. TA is effective as a form of collective delusion, and that is enough.
Raja_MBZ
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August 06, 2018, 09:16:03 PM

Smells like trouble for bitcoin's dominance:



Or will it break out?
Last of the V8s
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August 06, 2018, 09:17:52 PM

ot:
Quote
Climate change denial – involves denial, dismissal, unwarranted doubt or contrarian views which depart from the scientific consensus on climate change, including the extent to which it is caused by humans,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_topics_characterized_as_pseudoscience
lots of these are obvious wierd, but wtf is that^ authoritarian socialist claptrap

on topic: also includes this lol
Quote
Technical analysis ... The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.[13] It is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[14]

TA is probably the only pseudoscience where if enough people believe in it, then it becomes true. TA is effective as a form of collective delusion, and that is enough.

But everyone's is different. Whose chart becomes true?
Anyway btc died again.
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August 06, 2018, 09:19:32 PM

Surprise?
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August 06, 2018, 09:26:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

A high entrance fee like that will keep the riff-raff out. I'll be the banker.

Naw dude, just sign the invitation from a funded-enough address, to have the address/location/country/planet/galaxy revealed.

No need for bankers or people to HODL admission funds :-)

We have the technology.

just don't bring a phone with funds to this future meetup, witness recent SIM-jacking of crypto conferences attendees (lost $5 mil).

Do you have a link?

yeah
https://www.techspot.com/news/75750-20-year-old-college-student-hacked-40-phones.html
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August 06, 2018, 09:27:26 PM

ot:
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Climate change denial – involves denial, dismissal, unwarranted doubt or contrarian views which depart from the scientific consensus on climate change, including the extent to which it is caused by humans,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_topics_characterized_as_pseudoscience
lots of these are obvious wierd, but wtf is that^ authoritarian socialist claptrap

on topic: also includes this lol
Quote
Technical analysis ... The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.[13] It is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[14]

TA is probably the only pseudoscience where if enough people believe in it, then it becomes true. TA is effective as a form of collective delusion, and that is enough.

Isn’t that just the market mechanism in general?
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August 06, 2018, 09:29:06 PM

For certain purposes it's necessary to determine the logical cross-bearings of the concepts which we take for granted. But honestly, is there a single not obvious thing in here. You really thought I needed a reintroduction to basic financial literacy by way of cringe-y homespun wisdoms?

Now I'm even more morose!

Aww, don't go down that road. It's closed anyway.



9.5?
Nice
B1tUnl0ck3r
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August 06, 2018, 09:30:52 PM

For certain purposes it's necessary to determine the logical cross-bearings of the concepts which we take for granted. But honestly, is there a single not obvious thing in here. You really thought I needed a reintroduction to basic financial literacy by way of cringe-y homespun wisdoms?

Now I'm even more morose!

Aww, don't go down that road. It's closed anyway.



9.5?
Nice

it's a kidnapping for little st james island?
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August 06, 2018, 09:48:47 PM

When there is that party Somewhere @ 2022-ish @ a TOP-secret (only for coiners/WO members) location i would absolutly BE in to Co-organize the first multi trilion dollar entity party
Some small point like
-only 3* chefs
- luxury island
-private pick up
....... finest booze with No end etc.....
HairyMaclairy
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August 06, 2018, 09:48:53 PM

ot:
Quote
Climate change denial – involves denial, dismissal, unwarranted doubt or contrarian views which depart from the scientific consensus on climate change, including the extent to which it is caused by humans,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_topics_characterized_as_pseudoscience
lots of these are obvious wierd, but wtf is that^ authoritarian socialist claptrap

on topic: also includes this lol
Quote
Technical analysis ... The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.[13] It is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[14]

TA is probably the only pseudoscience where if enough people believe in it, then it becomes true. TA is effective as a form of collective delusion, and that is enough.

But everyone's is different. Whose chart becomes true?
Anyway btc died again.

That is the reason why you should only ever use the most trivial and childlike TA (such as lines on charts and Fib ratios).  Anything more complex cannot work because it will be different, or if it works is just a fluke.
HairyMaclairy
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August 06, 2018, 09:49:52 PM

For certain purposes it's necessary to determine the logical cross-bearings of the concepts which we take for granted. But honestly, is there a single not obvious thing in here. You really thought I needed a reintroduction to basic financial literacy by way of cringe-y homespun wisdoms?

Now I'm even more morose!

Aww, don't go down that road. It's closed anyway.



9.5?
Nice

That’s an awfully big latte.  If she drinks that whole thing she will likely jump off the pier.
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August 06, 2018, 09:51:04 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

That’s an awfully big latte.  If she drinks that whole thing she will likely jump off the pier.

Judging by what coffee does to my guts, after quaffing it she'll pinch a loaf longer and thicker than the pier and be able to charge admission.
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August 06, 2018, 09:53:40 PM

Just like your guess on the list for highest price This year ..... around 7.5K or something
 Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

LOL
yer sorry, i got that one wrong.  but still made decent profit 20k peak.

You are hardly convincing.

How could you be in a position to be making "decent profits" at any point in time if you are continuously  spewing bear scenarios?

If you attempt to live anywhere near your prophecies, then you are not going to have very much of your possible investment capital in bitcoin.  Therefore you are quite likely to be way under invested into bitcoin during times in which the exponential price increases take place.

As the old saying goes, "you gotta be in it to win it" and bitcoin has a relatively low number of real bull days during any particular calendar year.. even during bull years... so if you are nearly always preaching the bear scenario, then you are likely going to largely miss out on those bull days, when they do occur.

It was meant to say "decent profit since 20k peak".

There is an element of truth to what you say.  I didn't hold any bitcoin from after i got wiped out to now, just alts (traded some btc from late 2017).  made about 2000% by this time last year.  sold all my alts well before the peak.   if i'd held bicoin and sold at the exact peak that would be about 1500% profit.   made almost 400% trading since Dec 2017.  So since, i guess approx mid 2014 (i can't remember the date), thats about 8000% in 4 years.  That's a conserative estimate.

But i did't have much to start with, so still very small fry, but im happy and very greatful.

I suppose that it takes all types, and even those betting against bitcoin can make profits, even though it would be a lot more difficult to do so, especially when the price had gone up nearly 80x between late 2015 and late 2017...

But, yeah there were a lot of bear periods in there too... and like you mentioned additional bear periods in 2014.

i wasn't really betting against bitcoin, just had nothing left, so had to take bigger risks with relitivly unknown alts.  It could have gone the other way, but the crypto gods were favorable.   I have only shorted bitcoin a handful of times, and even then low amounts.

Well, yes... could be a matter of luck to get out of bitcoin at the right time and/or into various alts at the right time that end up outperforming bitcoin.

When people try to make various assertions that these bouts of luck in dabbling in alts  are repeatable, they are largely spewing nonsense, because it takes a certain kind of timing, luck and insider information to be able to get some of those right (and especially on a consistent and repeatable basis.  There were certain periods that you could have thrown a dart at the board and still done well (even better than bitcoin) on some of the alts.


I have nothing against bitcoin, my only problem is bitcoin evangelists, that only see bitcoin is going in one direction, and try to make out your point is not even worth contesting.  

Well, one thing if you are in a bitcoin thread, such as WO, talking about the downfall of bitcoin and pumping various other coins, then you are either partly off topic or you don't recognize the value of bitcoin.  Yes, there are a lot of bitcoin naysayers, trolls and shills who are spouting similar negative bitcoin ideas, so perhaps easy to get lumped in with those folks.

I also doubt that there is as much bitcoin evangelism going on in the WO thread as you make out to be.  Of course, there should be some pro bitcoin nature to the whole matter because it is a bitcoin thread and bitcoin is a bullish and world-changing technology.  At the same time, we have to expect the market to move in all directions, even while it is largely going up.


I would reconmend anyone to buy bitcoin, but proceed with caution and buy at the right time.  Now could be the right time, or it could be later.  

Yes.  There are variations in this, too.  Some people engage in dollar cost averaging and they never sell, and that is not a bad strategy too. 

You can also attempt to buy on dips, and if you believe in a technology, then you should be attempting to accumulate and not get tricked out of your coins that you have accumulated.  Of course, if you accumulated the coins at a much lower price, then you are not in such a bad position to sell some of them, even if you are selling at the wrong time.


But as for "continuously spewing bear scenarios?" , I haven't, there are a few short term bullish posts too.  

O.k..  I might be exaggerating this assertion a bit, but you do tend to have an ongoing prevalence of non-justified and out of context bearishness in your posts.

But if you want to challange that fine, just bear in mind as per my post on 20th Jan 2018, I sold my trade at 12800, and it never got close to that price again.   So until the price is above that, i was right to be mainly bearish for that time.

We are not in a contest.  I don't recommend that people sell on the way down, but I understand if people over invested then sometimes they have to sell some on the way down.. which was the case on January 20th-ish.

So, who gives a shit, if you made a lot of money or not.  If you get aggravated at supposed bitcoin evangelists (which I do not), I get aggravated at people who are bragging about how smart they are in terms of their trading.. especially if they sold on the way down...

Now, I do understand that there are more reasonable ways to come to such conclusions to sell on the way down, especially if you can acknowledge that you fucked up and you did not sell as much as you should have on the way up, the first time. 

So certainly, each of us has ways of phrasing the situation that we believe is more acceptable in terms of considering overall strategies and overall mentalities in respect to an investment like bitcoin.

By the way, I do understand and accept that there are a lot of folks in this thread and in the real world that cannot get gambling ideas out of their head, so I understand that they frequently are engaging a form of gambling (and too much gambling from my own perspective), so I will push back on some of these kinds of gambling framings, even though I understand that a lot of people do it, including a lot of people that I know and respect (both in real life and on this forum).

Im short term bullish atm, which may become long term or may not.

Does that mean I should sell?   hahahahahaha...

Surely, bullishness is going to have some difficult times breaking above $8k, $8,500 and $10k..  So I understand bullish reservations, that is for sure.

You already probably recall my approach which is not really to attempt to make any kind of short term predictions - or at least, I don't really change my buy /sell strategies based on short term price expectations.  I will only tweak a little bit here and there, and I don't really make BIG moves.  Accordingly, sometimes I am pushing back on folks who make BIGGER moves, but I understand that if you are feeling a bit heavy in fiat, then you might want to put a bit back in at these price points... but even that is not uncertain, and for that reason, I largely continue to practice and recommend incrementalism and smaller moves in order to always be prepared for both (UP and DOWN) price directions.
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August 06, 2018, 09:56:36 PM

That’s an awfully big latte.  If she drinks that whole thing she will likely jump off the pier.
Nah these young girls nowadays can really handle their long milky drinks.
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