Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I'm glad this is happening so it will finally be over and done with.

I think we will have reached our new ATL since the last ATH within a day or 3.

Bwahaha. It doesn't happen that easily. We're going to keep grinding lower for months. There will be a few rallies to the upside, just to raise your spirits a little bit. Once you see a glimmer of hope, the Bogdanoffs will sell again and crush it. Rinse and repeat.

It will only end when our spirits have been utterly decimated, and our souls nearly destroyed. This thread will be nothing but tumbleweeds and r0ach posts. That's when you know we're starting to head back up. It will take a few months for anyone to even realize we're in recovery mode. We won't have time to read charts at that point anyway. We'll be too busy tying nooses and working overtime at McDonald's.

Then the bull returns and we get to do it all over again. Choo choo motherfuckers.

I thoroughly enjoyed the story telling time.

[_javier_]

Breakeven cost is $4000-4500 for the GPU mining as a way to buy BTC

(last gen GPUs, 0.1 usd/kwh)

[JayJuanGee]

what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?

My post will allow your earlier linked image to be seen (above )
(Edit - although Ludwig Von beat me to it.. hahahahaha).

Maybe you should explain a bit more about what you are getting at, exactly, because for several months there had been decent BTC price variance (premium) on USD tether based exchanges ranging between $50 and $250.   Currently that premium is in the $200 area, but a day or two ago it had gotten below $100 for a while.. so I still don't seem to understand your point, exactly?    

How much do we really care about "true" BTC price anyhow?   We have some folks taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities, and we have FUD thrown around about tether, and surely the introduction of "stable coins" is not going to really resolve any of this any time soon, is it?  

Surely, an additional factor is that a lot of folks tend to use Bitstamp as our price reference point for other reasons as well, including that bitstamp does not engaged in margin trading...

[Febo]

Found this chart on reddit. Quite possible timeline. With nice bottom. Bear trap next summer then BAM. Two years of fun.

[RivAngE]

I was trying to explain to one bloke that it doesn't matter if you buy 0.1 bitcoin or 100000 of some shitcoin for same amount of money, if it rises 50% the gains will be the same. He firmly believed that his 100000 coins will make him more money, as the numerical value of them is higher. Many know nothing about math, sad.

That's not right. If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin.

To prove it with an example, say a small project has a market cap of 1mil $. An investor who will throw 1 million $ on this coin will increase its price by 100% (doubling the coin's price)
If the same investor would throw the same 1 million $ in BTC which has 66 billion $ market cap, the increase in price would be a drop in the bucket.

However, we can argue that BTC would draw more investors... the thing is that no matter how you look at it, we're speculating here! If someone is investing in small market cap coins which he has researched and believes that they have potential, then that's a high-risk high-reward play. It's definitely not the same thing as investing the same amount in BTC.

[Ludwig Von]

I was trying to explain to one bloke that it doesn't matter if you buy 0.1 bitcoin or 100000 of some shitcoin for same amount of money, if it rises 50% the gains will be the same. He firmly believed that his 100000 coins will make him more money, as the numerical value of them is higher. Many know nothing about math, sad.

That's not right. If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin.

To prove it with an example, say a small project has a market cap of 1mil $. An investor who will throw 1 million $ on this coin will increase its price by 100% (doubling the coin's price)
If the same investor would throw the same 1 million $ in BTC which has 66 billion $ market cap, the increase in price would be a drop in the bucket.

However, we can argue that BTC would draw more investors... the thing is that no matter how you look at it, we're speculating here! If someone is investing in small market cap coins which he has researched and believes that they have potential, then that's a high-risk high-reward play. It's definitely not the same thing as investing the same amount in BTC.

"If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin."

That is not math, no science, just sentiment.

[yefi]

That's not right. If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin.
[...]

That's not what he's saying - he's talking about the value per coin or token irrespective of supply.  I've witnessed this first-hand from my interactions too. On the whole people are innumerate, which is remarkable when you think about it - I mean all the calculations that your unconscious has to perform just to achieve the feat of balance, yet throw a simple equation at the conscious and it falls to pieces.

[HairyMaclairy]

They are making more from shorting than losing on mining.  

orly? Who's 'they'?

Ayre, Jihan, Ver and CSW.  

You don’t think they are in it for the ideology do you?

[Ludwig Von]

Just got back from a day at the hospital. Damn...
I'll hodl as long as it takes, but damn

bitcoin is now a part of history books weeeee

Time to write some best-sellers about bitcoin(history), in order to maintain income... .  

 I believe a hat is required in order to be a successful writer.



avatar-sized




Agh ja Xhomerx, super well done ! I will put it to active duty tomorrow! Thanks .

[HairyMaclairy]

I'm glad this is happening so it will finally be over and done with.

I think we will have reached our new ATL since the last ATH within a day or 3.

Bwahaha. It doesn't happen that easily. We're going to keep grinding lower for months. There will be a few rallies to the upside, just to raise your spirits a little bit. Once you see a glimmer of hope, the Bogdanoffs will sell again and crush it. Rinse and repeat.

It will only end when our spirits have been utterly decimated, and our souls nearly destroyed. This thread will be nothing but tumbleweeds and r0ach posts. That's when you know we're starting to head back up. It will take a few months for anyone to even realize we're in recovery mode. We won't have time to read charts at that point anyway. We'll be too busy tying nooses and working overtime at McDonald's.

Then the bull returns and we get to do it all over again. Choo choo motherfuckers.

We are the fighting Uruk-hai

[JayJuanGee]

They are making more from shorting than losing on mining.  

orly? Who's 'they'?

Ayre, Jihan, Ver and CSW.  

You don’t think they are in it for the ideology do you?

You are likely correct, hairy bearie...

If you are a relatively BIG player, you should not be making relatively BIG bets without hedging your position, just in case your initial plan might NOT go too well....

So, surely, the BIGGER players are likely taking both sides of these kinds of bets, and some of us smaller players may or may not be able to know, exactly where they are going, before they go.

[Zaanda]

https://i.postimg.cc/4dj5Wm3T/tttt.png


what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?

My post will allow your earlier linked image to be seen (above )
(Edit - although Ludwig Von beat me to it.. hahahahaha).

Maybe you should explain a bit more about what you are getting at, exactly, because for several months there had been decent BTC price variance (premium) on USD tether based exchanges ranging between $50 and $250.   Currently that premium is in the $200 area, but a day or two ago it had gotten below $100 for a while.. so I still don't seem to understand your point, exactly?    

How much do we really care about "true" BTC price anyhow?   We have some folks taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities, and we have FUD thrown around about tether, and surely the introduction of "stable coins" is not going to really resolve any of this any time soon, is it?  

Surely, an additional factor is that a lot of folks tend to use Bitstamp as our price reference point for other reasons as well, including that bitstamp does not engaged in margin trading...

sorry for my english.  i am happy you chose the example of bitstamp.

I try to explain harmonic patterns appear on USDT exchanges much more regularly than on a place similar to bitstamp.additionally bitstamp is lower price than a bitcoin live sell exchance such as cex.io.  how can this be?  if harmonics are the purest form of Fibonacci numbers in trading then this suggests that tether trades fit a more natural organic pattern. 

bitstamp for my experice is a good example.  it is higher in bull times, and lower in bear times, suggesting the manipulation is there not with usdt.    When harmonic patterns show on tether echanges, especaily bitstamp will behave almost opersite to the expected result of fibbonacci harmonic patterns.  this is why the price flutuates between supposed usd and usdt, and additionally why bitstamp is lower than cex.io. 

I believe that bitstamp especally is price manipulating, either a alorthim program, the exchange or one or many traders.   you can also see the bitstam orderbook is not behaving normally.

[Biodom]

Found this chart on reddit. Quite possible timeline. With nice bottom. Bear trap next summer then BAM. Two years of fun.

Nice graph, but it is just a projection of the 2013-2015 onto 2018 bear market.
I doubt that it would repeat itself.
The "Decreasing bounce" model suggests that we painted the bottom at $4000-4300.
See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg44213157#msg44213157
I will reiterate the model here:

Two previous large bears were 93-94%, then 86%, accordingly we should have less  this time around (less downturn then prior). If we decline more than 85.9%, then this model is invalidated.
I initially favored 78% decline=$4350 (violated on the intraday basis, but we will see the "close" at US midnight), but anything between 78 and 85.9% would still fit.
This model would be invalidated if we stay below $2800, otherwise we are still in it.
The average price between $4350 and 2800 is $3575.

Interestingly, we can also examine bounces:
The first peak was at $32, then decline to $2, bounce to $1160, decline to $150, and bounce to $19873.
Therefore, the first bounce ($2 to $1160) was 57900%
The second bounce was smaller in % ($150 to $19873)= 13100% (X0.226 of the first in %%).

Therefore, if we would bottom at around $4000, then this model predicts the next peak at or less than 2963% higher than $4000 or $122500.
At the lowest possible bound decline of the model ($2800), the next peak would be projected similarly 2963% higher than $2800 or about $85700.

[ninobtcx]

Just read this on biz. Made me laugh so I thought I'd share it:

>>> Yeah fuck 2018. Got arrested and ruined my life now I'm financially ruined. Trump not doing any of the shit he said he would. Family won't talk to me. Homeless until I go to prison. Sitting in McDonalds. Nowhere to go. Fuck 2018 and I almost made it

Poor guy though, I'd gladly help him out if I could.

Thinking of him, sitting at MacDonalds on his last days of freedom, browsing biz in front of his laptop, watching his cryptoassets fall to oblivion.

[realr0ach]

Did you guys hear about this one weird trick to make a small fortune in bitcoin?  Start with a large fortune in bitcoin.

[BHSMC]

I can't believe there are still some idiots who believe in graphics, pattern etc.

lol

[goldkingcoiner]

Just read this on biz. Made me laugh so I thought I'd share it:

>>> Yeah fuck 2018. Got arrested and ruined my life now I'm financially ruined. Trump not doing any of the shit he said he would. Family won't talk to me. Homeless until I go to prison. Sitting in McDonalds. Nowhere to go. Fuck 2018 and I almost made it

Poor guy though, I'd gladly help him out if I could.

Thinking of him, sitting at MacDonalds on his last days of freedom, browsing biz in front of his laptop, watching his cryptoassets fall to oblivion.

Go to mexico, open a burro show, buy coins with earnings.

[infofront]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1064854774028427264

This video should be familiar to most of us.

[realr0ach]

https://i.imgur.com/FI9vwaD.png

This is one of the dumbest charts I have ever seen.  It claims against all logic that with no fundamentals, scalability, and entirely centralized defeating the purpose of it's existence, bitcoin is going to be pumped to $600,000 each and then immediately just crash again to nothingness to $30k? LOL.  If it was $600k each, it would basically be the world reserve currency, which chances of that happening are slim to none against silver and gold.  And yet, even if it did happen, a world reserve currency can't just skyrocket to infinite market cap and then immediately dump to nothingness two days later.  

World reserve currencies are supposed to last something like 200 years or so on average.  But this retarded model based on nothing but extrapolating from a simple curve claims bitcoin is going to be pump and dumped out of nowhere to be the world reserve currency for something like <1 year then instantly implode.  Nothing about the chart or the numbers makes any sense.  Charts like this are like listening to Vitalik describe sex with girls using math.  

You cannot predict the future by creating a completely arbitrary, meaningless curve in a TI-82 graphing calculator.  Are people actually this stupid thinking the future can be predicted in this manner, or did they just toss it out there as some half ass pump and dump attempt propaganda knowing it's bullshit but just don't even care?

[realr0ach]

But...if the price is crashing so much...what about the tax revenue for the US war machine?

Please don't sell at a loss...think of the poor third world children that have never seen the glow of phosphorous before.

Prime example of govt employee incompetence.  He works for the govt then forgets he works for the govt and posts this...while spending his usual time off complaining about the govt and promoting libertarianism...while working for the govt.