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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 43 (28.7%)
2020 - 59 (39.3%)
2021 - 34 (22.7%)
2022 - 8 (5.3%)
2023 - 1 (0.7%)
Never - 5 (3.3%)
Total Voters: 150

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21180714 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
jojo69
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November 21, 2018, 03:05:01 AM
Merited by QuestionAuthority (5)

I had high hopes for the merit system at first. I really thought it could bring back some of the people that used to be here. Or at least the same type of people. Then as I was looking at the people asking for merit or at least trying to post decently I realized this forum is for non English speaking altcoiners now. I couldn’t give a shit about altcoins. I’ve essentially given up on this ever being a bitcoin forum again.

It's a shithole out there man.  A cesspool of sig campaigning google translate feces.

Stay in this thread.  It is the only reliably decent place on the forum.
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QuestionAuthority
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November 21, 2018, 03:06:17 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I had high hopes for the merit system at first. I really thought it could bring back some of the people that used to be here. Or at least the same type of people. Then as I was looking at the people asking for merit or at least trying to post decently I realized this forum is for non English speaking altcoiners now. I couldn’t give a shit about altcoins. I’ve essentially given up on this ever being a bitcoin forum again.

It's a shithole out there man.  A cesspool of sig campaigning google translate feces.

Stay in this thread.  It is the only reliably decent place on the forum.

I absolutely agree with you 100%.
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November 21, 2018, 03:08:13 AM
Merited by QuestionAuthority (1)

I realized this forum is for non English speaking altcoiners now. I couldn’t give a shit about altcoins. I’ve essentially given up on this ever being a bitcoin forum again.

I don't venture outside this thread very much. Don't see much point TBH.

Find it difficult even loading up the Flat Earth thread, and seeing that tire-fire of 'tardation keepin' on burnin'

The hardware section used to be interesting before Bitmain went Chaotic Evil.

I have zero interest in Altcoins.

Used to do the whole IRC thing, but finding this thread satisfies that itch for a "hang-out", and one of the best places on the Internet to "get the pulse" of Bitcorn, in a manner of speaking.

This thread is a wonderful nexus of sorts.
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November 21, 2018, 03:08:25 AM


Dozens of tiny drivers? We used to think that Bose 801's made good PA too - back in the day.

(Truth be told, I've not heard the PJ's. But in my experience, plentiful bass requires surface area.)

dude, "there is no replacement...for displacement" used to be my mantra

I was agog when I heard that little thing, genuinely shocked.

i dunno, i prefer lots of 10" drivers in bass cabinets. faster response than 15"s because of the lower mass. gives more punch.

but cabinet design and driver specs makes a difference too, so it depends i guess.
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November 21, 2018, 03:08:35 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Too many pages..

I got my $3k number by extrapolating the ratio of the last ATH to the last ATL before the new ATH = the new post last ATH ATL = bout $3k ish mmkay..
1200-150 =about 20k-3k ish maybe 2.5k
1200/150=8  === 20k/8=2.5k


IDK about you but I don't have much soft feelers for the centralized mining cartel..
Doesn't hurt my feels 1 bit if they lose money for 6 months or so. Fuck them.

BTCBelievers will ensue the network continues. Price has little motivation on nodes and their will still be plenty of hash.
Then we will float undervalued until the next pump to..

20,000/1200 = X/20,000 = 333,333.333333 kek has spoken

hodl for 300k
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November 21, 2018, 03:09:24 AM

OK guys, a little advice. Now is the time for you americans to gift up to 15k worth of btc to family members for tax purposes before we go up again.

https://medium.com/altcoin-magazine/6-ways-to-avoid-capital-gains-tax-on-your-bitcoin-transactions-cdea03e17eb4?source=email-1e154d444ca3-1542733274163-digest.reader------0-49------------------d338a09a_bbdc_4a82_b815_fc3f6a926863-1&sectionName=top

BTW looking at the charts were too gross, I'm off to hotub.

Try to recoup something on the poker tables today. :}

Yeah, was wondering about what would happen with the US tax situation during a downturn - could cause a further slide if we dont get a Dec bull market

$15k per relative is pretty good and they will only get taxed on the amount its worth when you transfer it so send it now and everything above is pure untaxable profit.

nevermind, don't waste your time making me a hat.

Looks like Capitulation to me. Smiley

I have already lost like 80% of my peak value at ATH. The remaining 20% I can wipe my ass with it. Good luck in prying my coins from my cold, dead hands.

General sentiment of any intelligent person I would think.

is RSI at historic low?  Cry

this should bounce soon or else..  Angry

Unfortunately when market is manipulated, TA is not the best in determining what to do next.
I'm glad this is happening so it will finally be over and done with.

I think we will have reached our new ATL since the last ATH within a day or 3.

Bwahaha. It doesn't happen that easily. We're going to keep grinding lower for months. There will be a few rallies to the upside, just to raise your spirits a little bit. Once you see a glimmer of hope, the Bogdanoffs will sell again and crush it. Rinse and repeat.

It will only end when our spirits have been utterly decimated, and our souls nearly destroyed. This thread will be nothing but tumbleweeds and r0ach posts. That's when you know we're starting to head back up. It will take a few months for anyone to even realize we're in recovery mode. We won't have time to read charts at that point anyway. We'll be too busy tying nooses and working overtime at McDonald's.

Then the bull returns and we get to do it all over again. Choo choo motherfuckers.

W0rd.


His choice of an image to post speaks volumes in support of what my post implied.  Roll Eyes Stupid kid just doesn't get it.

Sigh.

I noticed that as well. Lol

The biggest catalyst that'd make BTC price skyrocket higher is simply move all your BTC to your PERSONAL bitcoin wallet (move off of Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, Square, Robinhood, CBOE/CME futures).

Fractional reserve, BTC lending, rehypothication is a bitch and can perpetually create no floor for prices by establishment market manipulators.

Plus if history is any indication, one these avenues will blow up and wreck the "holders" of bitcoin that really wasn't there because they failed to take such advice.

Take it off the exchanges and see what happens.

Remove the fuckers ammo.

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November 21, 2018, 03:10:18 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), goldkingcoiner (1)

Maybe xhomerx10 should start making avatars on Ramen packets instead of hats, with the recent dumping.  Cheesy
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November 21, 2018, 03:10:25 AM

JJG doesn’t write posts. He sits and yells into a text to speech microphone. No one would ever type that much without being forced (like in school).

I write every single one of my posts.

One thing, so far, is that i have not been accused of plagerism... hahahahahahaha.. because almost every little word that I type flows through my fingertips.... believe it or not?

Hey QA... since I got you on the line.. I seem to recall that I was pissed off at you for a certain amount of time around December 2015 because you were bragging in the thread and proclaiming to sell a decently large stash of your BTC for christmas shopping.. something like that.. so I recall that presentation from you as being an irritating set of interactions and circumstances because it seemed to be a kind of rubbing in, and even encouraging BTC sales at an inopportune time.  Like gloating.   Tongue Tongue

 Am I remembering correctly or was that a different year or perhaps a different forum member?  Could have been 2014 or even 2016.. but for some reason I seem to recall the situation as 2015.

Jay, everything seems to irritate you, so I’m sure I irritated you. LOL

You are probably reading too much into the matter becuase I don't tend to hold grudges, especially with actual humans who can deal with relatively provocative engagements and differing opinions - that do not necessarily devolve into personal attacks.  I even tend to forgive those who engage in personal attacks, though I might reciprocate a bit before letting the matter go.

I did buy that boat I told you about.

O.k... so when was the boat? Was that December 2014?  December 2015?  December 2016?    or some other date?

That could have been the incident to which I am remembering.. because I seem to recall that there were a few folks (and you might have been one of them) who were gloating over their BTC profits, and really was not a good time to be selling BTC or encouraging others to sell.  It's almost like a kind of trolling - even though it might make some sense on a personal level.

Of course, if your cost basis for the BTC is really low, then you could still end up doing quite well on a personal level, even though the timing was not so great overall and even not really good timing for many others who might be considering what to do regarding their own BTC allocation(s)/investment.

It’s beautiful BTW. I took it out on Tahoe in August for a week. I looks like I’m gonna get back all my btc too if the current trend continues.

I have my doubts about how much anyone could really count on further downward BTC movement from here, but of course, the odds for downward BTC movement from here seems to be greater than it was a few weeks ago.. Yet, on the other hand, the level of our current BTC price correction, might also leave a BTC price situation that is just too oversold.. and there could end up being a decently sized upwards movement from here that causes the bottom to already be in... and no more down is really feasible.. even though it appears that down is coming?  It seems that we will see something in the coming week, especially with a decent amount of trade volume, it is usually more difficult for the price to stay in the same spot, but you never know.
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November 21, 2018, 03:12:51 AM

...
This thread is a wonderful nexus of sorts.

group hug
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November 21, 2018, 03:19:38 AM
Merited by QuestionAuthority (5)

[edited out]

I had high hopes for the merit system at first. I really thought it could bring back some of the people that used to be here. Or at least the same type of people. Then as I was looking at the people asking for merit or at least trying to post decently I realized this forum is for non English speaking altcoiners now. I couldn’t give a shit about altcoins. I’ve essentially given up on this ever being a bitcoin forum again.

We should not be living in the past anyhow, right?  I mean the space is going to evolve with the passage of time and the introduction of new products that contribute to the dynamics of the space.

Of course, if bitcoin ends up being the sound money that the fat protocol theorists believe it to be, then of course, bitcoin is going to become the one dominant money. 

I am of the current opinion that even if the fat protocol thesis of bitcoin as the soundest of monies is true, it could take more than 50 years to work out such dynamics - and even in a better case scenario, we would not likely get to a real bitcoin as the winner of them all for at least 20 years, even if things really worked out for bitcoin in a near to perfect way.

In other words, in the short to medium term, we are going to continue to have shit coins, snake oil and scam projects, and certainly there is no shortage of dumb money that causes a 50 year scenario to be more reasonable than even anything close to 20 years.

So in the meantime, why would we be wishing for a forum that does not reflect the reality of the situation - which is an abundance of trolls, shills and dumb money pumpers.  I am not saying that they should not be criticized or called out on their bullshit, but none  of us can really wish them away because that just seems unrealistic - and perhaps "pie in the sky" to quote PoolMinor quoting me.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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November 21, 2018, 03:28:23 AM
Last edit: November 21, 2018, 03:46:22 AM by QuestionAuthority

JJG doesn’t write posts. He sits and yells into a text to speech microphone. No one would ever type that much without being forced (like in school).

I write every single one of my posts.

One thing, so far, is that i have not been accused of plagerism... hahahahahahaha.. because almost every little word that I type flows through my fingertips.... believe it or not?

Hey QA... since I got you on the line.. I seem to recall that I was pissed off at you for a certain amount of time around December 2015 because you were bragging in the thread and proclaiming to sell a decently large stash of your BTC for christmas shopping.. something like that.. so I recall that presentation from you as being an irritating set of interactions and circumstances because it seemed to be a kind of rubbing in, and even encouraging BTC sales at an inopportune time.  Like gloating.   Tongue Tongue

 Am I remembering correctly or was that a different year or perhaps a different forum member?  Could have been 2014 or even 2016.. but for some reason I seem to recall the situation as 2015.

Jay, everything seems to irritate you, so I’m sure I irritated you. LOL

You are probably reading too much into the matter becuase I don't tend to hold grudges, especially with actual humans who can deal with relatively provocative engagements and differing opinions - that do not necessarily devolve into personal attacks.  I even tend to forgive those who engage in personal attacks, though I might reciprocate a bit before letting the matter go.

I did buy that boat I told you about.

O.k... so when was the boat? Was that December 2014?  December 2015?  December 2016?    or some other date?

That could have been the incident to which I am remembering.. because I seem to recall that there were a few folks (and you might have been one of them) who were gloating over their BTC profits, and really was not a good time to be selling BTC or encouraging others to sell.  It's almost like a kind of trolling - even though it might make some sense on a personal level.

Of course, if your cost basis for the BTC is really low, then you could still end up doing quite well on a personal level, even though the timing was not so great overall and even not really good timing for many others who might be considering what to do regarding their own BTC allocation(s)/investment.

It’s beautiful BTW. I took it out on Tahoe in August for a week. I looks like I’m gonna get back all my btc too if the current trend continues.

I have my doubts about how much anyone could really count on further downward BTC movement from here, but of course, the odds for downward BTC movement from here seems to be greater than it was a few weeks ago.. Yet, on the other hand, the level of our current BTC price correction, might also leave a BTC price situation that is just too oversold.. and there could end up being a decently sized upwards movement from here that causes the bottom to already be in... and no more down is really feasible.. even though it appears that down is coming?  It seems that we will see something in the coming week, especially with a decent amount of trade volume, it is usually more difficult for the price to stay in the same spot, but you never know.

I agree with that, you’re pretty well balanced and debate well.  I’m just too lazy to read everything you post. As far as talking about things that you buy with BTC that’s a great motivator for people to get into bitcoin. If you can’t use your bitcoin to buy something nice what are we doing with it? Reminds me of an old American cartoon called Scrooge McDuck?  Only ever did was sit around and count his money, he wouldn’t spend it.  What kind of stupid shit is that.

 I hope you’re right and it doesn’t drop anymore.  I’m perfectly fine with buying right now and selling at $20,000. I don’t want a Lamborghini but a nice big house on Tahoe would be OK.

Edit: HaHa I was doing what I accused Jay of doing and driving and using text to speech so I had to edit.
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November 21, 2018, 03:47:20 AM

[edited out]

I agree with that, you’re pretty well balanced and debate well.  I’m just Too lazy to read everything you post.

I would llkely die, or close to die, if I had to read my posts in total.  I would not expect others to read everything, that's for sure.


As far as talking about things that you buy with BTC that’s a great motivator for people to get in to be at the bitcoi too lazy to read everything you post. As far as talking about things that you buy with BTC that’s a great motivator for people to get into bitcoin. If you can use your bitcoin to buy something nice what are we doing with it? Reminds me of an old American cartoon called Scrooge McDuck?  Only ever did was sit around and count his money, he wouldn’t spend it.  What kind of stupid shit is that.

Actually, I will concede that you may have had good intentions when you posted some aspect of your "profit's takings," but you might need to concede that there are certain times in the market that such publicity might be the wrong timing for most people.

For example, retrospectively, profit taking on the way up past $10k on the first time around would have been o.k. and even o.k. to post about such good practices - even though a lot of us get caught in the momentum of upward movement and expecting continued up.

I have some problems when profit taking is promoted after there has been a really large correction, including the one that we are currently in... more than 75%.. even though for some people, they might be up 50x or more. 


I hope you’re right and it doesn’t drop anymore. 

Of course I am guessing, but if we were in more than a 65% correction when BTC prices were floating in the $6,200 arena for many weeks, and then we corrected an additional 30% from there to bring our price down to nearly 80% overall correction, there are decent chances that the bottom is in, even though there is no real way to really know for sure except to kind of wait it out and attempt to assign probabilities and perhaps engage in some hopium about the overall situation.


I’m perfectly fine with buying right now and selling at $20,000. I don’t want a Lamborghini but a nice big house on Tahoe would be OK.

You see.  Your chosen framework can sometimes get to me, a bit. 

Maybe you are not engaging in 100% buying at current prices and then 100% selling at $20k, but I could not really consider selling within 20% to 30% of the previous ATH of $19,666 as being reasonable nor prudent.   

Of course, selling in the $17k territory might be reasonable and selling in the supra $26k territory might be reasonable.  In other words, the $20k arena just seems like a bit of a no man's land in terms of selling btc.  Sure, shaving off a bit of BTC for insurance might be o.k., but the bigger areas to reasonably  and prudently theorize selling decent chunks of BTC would be below $17k and above $26k.. something like that.
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November 21, 2018, 03:53:34 AM

Edit: HaHa I was doing what I accused Jay of doing and driving and using text to speech so I had to edit.


Don't drive your bmie and do forum.

BBBBBBBBaaaaaaaaaaaaaaddddddddddd!!!!!!

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November 21, 2018, 03:59:52 AM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

I have no pants or hat...wtf am I supposed to do now?

~snip


 Being hatless in this climate is not an option.



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November 21, 2018, 04:02:54 AM

The world will go back to metals again as money no matter how much kicking and screaming the banks do to try and prevent it.

I hold crypto and metals. And hope many others would too. But people are just very stupid. Just tell them to buy some real gold. The question is "What do I do with it?"

If five percent of the people used every month five percent of their income to gold and silver, the price would go up sure. The greater real demand would also make price manipulation much harder. People could use physical metals to pay each other directly. And avoid every tax and KYC/AML. But no, people are stupid.
Start your own facebook. Make it better, shinier, with more buttons. Technically better in every way. Now see if you can get people to use it.

I guess people are now slowly migrating from facebook to gab.ai.

How to run a con:
Step 1. Promise you'll defend free speech.
Step 2. Take money from 'investors' (see, e.g., https://www.startengine.com/gab [$1.07M] and https://www.startengine.com/gab-select [$5.67M so far]).
Step 3. Ban 'controversial' accounts (to appeal to more investors).
Step 4. Who cares? You already got yours.
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November 21, 2018, 04:12:08 AM

Maybe xhomerx10 should start making avatars on Ramen packets instead of hats, with the recent dumping.  Cheesy

 Unfortunately, xhomerx10 is on a low-carb regimen and also gets headaches at the mere mention of MSG  Angry
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November 21, 2018, 05:55:29 AM


I am supplementing my earlier post to you, bitserve. 

More or less, I had expected that $3k would have been the extreme maximum of any BTC price correction in this cycle, and surely our price correction down to $4k (more than $2k in less than a week) has also been a bit more and a bit faster than I expected, so in some sense, I have overbought on this downward leg a bit.

I considered that it was necessary to take my own advice in my earlier post to you, bitserve, and I reassessed all of my still outstanding buy orders and the amount of fiat that had been allocated to those buy orders. 

I have now reset my buy orders to go down to $2k.

Of course, the amounts of my buy orders seem to have become more and more pathetic because I feel that I have overbought a bit out of an expectation that we would not be going here.

Nonetheless, we are here, and my reconsideration of my buy orders have caused me to feel more prepared for down to $2k and to buy all the way down, if such a bTC price drop were to happen quickly.  If such BTC price drop were to come about more slowly (that is if there were to be a drop) then I would have the ability to reassess and potentially add more fiat with upcoming anticipated cashflow - whether it were to take 3 months or a year or maybe longer (even worse case scenarios that seem quite implausible and unlikely but still have to psychologically and financially prepare)... , and of course, any radical BTC price moves along the way may cause reconsideration(s) based on plans and strategies already in place. 

I have a bit of a sense, maybe even a bit above 50/50 that our bottom is already "in" at $4k, but gosh, we can really never know how many more coins rich people might be willing to throw at this situation and hoping to take advantage of the current state of bitcoin (even while there is no real fundamental problems).. and any possible downward momentum that they believe to still have based on breaks of various levels of support in the past approximate 6 days.
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November 21, 2018, 06:09:35 AM
Last edit: November 21, 2018, 06:35:42 AM by JimboToronto
Merited by vapourminer (1)


Dozens of tiny drivers? We used to think that Bose 801's made good PA too - back in the day.

(Truth be told, I've not heard the PJ's. But in my experience, plentiful bass requires surface area.)

dude, "there is no replacement...for displacement" used to be my mantra

I was agog when I heard that little thing, genuinely shocked.

i dunno, i prefer lots of 10" drivers in bass cabinets. faster response than 15"s because of the lower mass. gives more punch.

but cabinet design and driver specs makes a difference too, so it depends i guess.

I was always a big woofer guy myself. Ever try an Ampeg Portaflex B-18? The extra 3" of speaker diameter really made a difference over the more common B-15. It was like having 32' bass organ pipes.

Today's acoustically coupled multiple small woofers have started to win me over though. My little Roland busker's bass amp with its four 4" speakers puts out surprising bass.

The concept of acoustically linking an array of smaller speakers is actually quite old. I was only 12 years old when Popular Electronics magazine published a hi fi speaker construction project called the Sweet Sixteen in their January 1961 edition. It used 16 5" speakers to achieve "sub-sonic" bass response of 20-30 hz, which was very good for the time.

I so wanted to build one but being in grade school at the time, it was beyond both my budget and my abilities. $50 was a  good week's wages for an adult in those days.

I couldn't find the original article but here's a PDF of a follow-up article a few months later when they added a tweeter.

https://www.jimkyle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Sweet-16.pdf

There's nothing new under the sun.
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November 21, 2018, 06:35:22 AM

I love my


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November 21, 2018, 06:45:57 AM
Last edit: November 21, 2018, 07:01:10 AM by bitserve
Merited by dbshck (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), FractalUniverse (1)


I am supplementing my earlier post to you, bitserve.  

More or less, I had expected that $3k would have been the extreme maximum of any BTC price correction in this cycle, and surely our price correction down to $4k (more than $2k in less than a week) has also been a bit more and a bit faster than I expected, so in some sense, I have overbought on this downward leg a bit.

I considered that it was necessary to take my own advice in my earlier post to you, bitserve, and I reassessed all of my still outstanding buy orders and the amount of fiat that had been allocated to those buy orders.  

I have now reset my buy orders to go down to $2k.

Of course, the amounts of my buy orders seem to have become more and more pathetic because I feel that I have overbought a bit out of an expectation that we would not be going here.

Nonetheless, we are here, and my reconsideration of my buy orders have caused me to feel more prepared for down to $2k and to buy all the way down, if such a bTC price drop were to happen quickly.  If such BTC price drop were to come about more slowly (that is if there were to be a drop) then I would have the ability to reassess and potentially add more fiat with upcoming anticipated cashflow - whether it were to take 3 months or a year or maybe longer (even worse case scenarios that seem quite implausible and unlikely but still have to psychologically and financially prepare)... , and of course, any radical BTC price moves along the way may cause reconsideration(s) based on plans and strategies already in place.  

I have a bit of a sense, maybe even a bit above 50/50 that our bottom is already "in" at $4k, but gosh, we can really never know how many more coins rich people might be willing to throw at this situation and hoping to take advantage of the current state of bitcoin (even while there is no real fundamental problems).. and any possible downward momentum that they believe to still have based on breaks of various levels of support in the past approximate 6 days.

That's a sound plan and it is probably what I would do, except I am basically out of the trading game as my trading fiat is practically depleted. I will probably just throw it sooner than later to buy a little bit more but, it won't make any difference. As I say it is too little.

Contrary to the 2013-2014 downtrend where I was able to almost double my BTC count I haven't played my cards well this time. I was overconfident that once $10K was breached on the uptrend (something I did not expected to happen so soon, but in a few more years IF lucky) it would act as a support/bottom. More so when the ATH reached almost double than that.

So I not only sold too little from $10K to $19K but I depleted most of it rebuying on the way down to $10K. Under $10K I was already out of my plan and could only do some scrapping on the volatility here and there.

Also scrapping on the volatility was way better/easier right after the 2013 ATH than it is now, for three reasons:

- The volatility was brutal, with huge flash spikes all over the place.

- Arbitrage and bots were not as advanced, and there were a few seconds delay between huobi (where most big movements originated) and Bitstamp action. So it was possible to outrun other traders if you were quick.

- I was trading much more aggressively and with most of my stash. This time I tried to maintain my exchanges exposure to the same in fiat valuation, extracting BTC periodically to cold storage to achieve that target. I ended with only around 5-10% of my stash online and, even then, only a minor part of it in FIAT.

I did not adapt to the circumstances, or better yet my interpretation of the circumstances was incorrect.

I thought the market had already matured enough that a correction as deep as the previous was out of question. I fooled myself.

Still I have been able to "beat the market" in the sense that I end with a bit more BTC (which is always my goal) but for me is a failure.

Anyway, current price is more or less in line with my previous expectation so, in a sense, everything is going according to my plan as if the FOMO/bubble phase of the last bullrun didn't ever happen.

I only feel a bit saddened for not having taken advantage of the opportunity of, at least, doubling again and for not having done anything when I indeed knew in december that this had to implode.

My target is not to reach a price where I cash it all out but to have a stash that even when bottoming I still have enough to "retire" so I won't have to care about price shenanigans anymore. That will only be possible if Bitcoin really succeeds. So that's where my main bet is. Will try to play my cards better next time, though.  
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