We all know that anything (literally anything) can happen in bitcoinlandia - within an hour, we can either get a nice green $1k candle or a dark red $1k candle. We've seen it before and we should definitely be ready to see it again.
You might be saying anything could happen, which is partly true, but a BIGGER truth is that some outcomes are more likely than other outcomes, and people are going to differ in their speculations regarding what is more likely or less likely ... otherwise, everyone could just agree on $1million per bitcoin, and we could be done with it.. but that is NOT going to happen.
However, the reason why I quote that wild guess, again & again after each pump, is to enjoy a new value of odds that is a little more closer to 100%, and I guess that it makes everybody around feel a bit better.
Even if odds might be moving in your favor, I would not even come close to concluding that the whole ballgame has changed, because the changing of odds do not tend to happen so dramatically absent some kind of major event.. and our short squeeze from yesterday (that may be continuing into today and beyond) has not yet risen to enough of event beyond tweaking the odds a bit into your favor... which ends up being a BIG "so what?" rather than some kind of trigger to cause more happiness..
In fact, if you attempt to describe inflated expectations, then you are likely to increase the likelihood of people feeling bad, rather than better. Hopefully, you have heard of the concept of maintaining and spreading low expectations, and therefore, when the situation over delivers, then surplus happiness comes from those kinds of outcomes.
Imagine looking at these posts after a few years, when the probability of going below $3900 will actually be close to zero; it'd be pure pleasure.
Actually, you are correct. There will come a point in which going below $3,900 becomes a very low possibility, just like sub $1k currently fits into that formula... Of course, sub $1k is NOT impossible, but it is pretty damned low on the scale of possible outcomes.
Some nice progress has already been made in the last few days... From:
less than 25% arena
to:
maybe we are getting close to the 50/50 arena..
My state of mind should not be considered as much of a barometer, except perhaps for myself to decide the extent to which I might make some adjustments to my BTC strategies - or other adjustments in life that I might consider making.
BTW, I don't think that we're close to that 50/50 arena yet. If I were you, I'd call it 50/50 once we break above ~$5700. But then again, it's all pure speculation... This thread is all about speculation anyways.
Of course, people are going to come to differing numbers, and nuances are not likely to make much if any substantive differences. I have not come out of my consideration that we remain in a bear market... and merely breaking above $5,700 would not be enough for me. my parameters for getting out of a bear market have not changed very much in the past couple of months, even if the current price performance has changed, and I remain encouraged and enthusiastic regarding our lovely surprise price movements of the past 24 hours or so.
Well, let's just hope that it does come true!
You would find no complaining from me, if below $3,900 were to ever occur again, and in fact, it would be kind of nice to se the bitcoin naysayers, fence sitters and the no coiners to be forced to buy BTC at a higher price than they were expecting.
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