Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gyrsur]

The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.

Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.

There where times people thought the same with hitting 10 or 20K ......

I do believe 50 tot 100K can go much faster as many do believe it can, not that it matters the most but I just think its gonna be happening faster as many do think.

$50,000 - $100,000 is 1 - 2 years away, I’m certain of it. $50,000 is only 5 x $10,000 & we’ll probably be sitting at least $10,000 at the halving. Each parabolic rise gets less post halving as we go on but we were at $700 or something last halving & reached nearly $20,000.

It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving. 

i assume next bubble (IF) something between $100K to $200K (peek) and bottom between $30K and $50K. period. now let me sleep the Crypto winter again. 

[JSRAW]

Let's get it done - Boris

@JSRAW brother what mean Boris?
Boros= Bearish trend?

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is known as Boris Johnson : Father of Lara, Theon, Peaches and Authur, Husband of Marina Wheeler, Ex- Husband of Allegra Mostyn, British Politician, used to be a writer and Journalist now serving as a Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

joke of the century  

Not going to comment on that i am just observer from the outside.

@Dabs : Regarding adoption : I am planning to pay my kids tuition fees etc in the year 2040-45 with BTC, if that's count. Hopefully

[fillippone]

The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.

Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.

It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving. 

I think I already said this many times, also here on the WO.
I have a feeling a lot of people, institutional investors included, are looking at PlanB models, and probably sometimes between here and the halving we'll start seeing some kind of front running. I do agree with LFC scenario of easy 50K after halving in May20.

If the halving rally fails to materialise before or after the halving, say one year after, we still are around today's level, then we will experience a very long and cold cryptowinter II.
Institutional money, who is ready to dump a LOT of money into cryptos, see Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, high volatility asset. Something that is very precious in low volatility/negative interest rate financial environment.
If bitcoins then fails to provide those investors  with a positive return, then we we'll have a serious adoption problem posing a threat to further growth.

[Negotiation]

Let's get it done - Boris

@JSRAW brother what mean Boris?
Boros= Bearish trend?

leader of the UK - Boris Johnson

EDIT: if you ever read about Donald and Boris here. it refers not to Donald Duck and his buddy in Ducktown.

yaah understood brother @Gyrsur

nice to see white man.

[Negotiation]

Let's get it done - Boris

@JSRAW brother what mean Boris?
Boros= Bearish trend?

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is known as Boris Johnson : Father of Lara, Theon, Peaches and Authur, Husband of Marina Wheeler, Ex- Husband of Allegra Mostyn, British Politician, used to be a writer and Journalist now serving as a Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

joke of the century  

Not going to comment on that i am just observer from the outside.

@Dabs : Regarding adoption : I am planning to pay my kids tuition fees etc in the year 2040-45 with BTC, if that's count. Hopefully

all over @JSRAW brother giving interesting information 

[Gyrsur]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

[El duderino_]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

[fillippone]

Lot of Germans coming to Bitcoin, shouldn't surprise as German yield curve is entirely negative up to 30y!
Saving at negative rates is the biggest push for BTC to the moon!

[Negotiation]

#bitcoin is the driving force to understand money's profound role of facilitating societal evolution.

The price system is a collection of individual choices producing equilibrium to the division of labour.

Result is efficient productivity!

🙏
@saifedean
 for suggested reading.

source:https://twitter.com/bronzefozzz/status/1179366284531814400

reading this book information about bitcoin help learning.

[Gyrsur]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

done, Brother

[El duderino_]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

done, Brother

#Bull

[lightfoot]

$350,000 a year salary is not ''enough'' to be part of the middle class in expensive U.S cities.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-budget-shows-how-a-350000-salary-barely-qualifies-as-middle-class-2019-09-11?link=sfmw_tw

Ok, this is bullshit. Because I follow the Micawber school of finance, I have tracked income and expenditures for a number of years and have a pretty good idea of the ratios. The above spreadsheet is a straw man and excludes a couple of key items:

1) Biggest is income: If you look at line 3 you see they took the 24k standard deduction alone. Bullshit: If you're making 350k, have a big mortgage, and donate to charity/childcare and are not taking more than the 24k deduction your tax professional should be stoned. Probably is.

Fixing this with more rational numbers yields an estimated tax of 52k instead of 92k, leaving them with another 40k a year in free cash flow.

With just that, you now have a cash flow of net 40k a year or +$3,333 a month. That's a bit more than starvation amounts.

2) Other numbers are somewhat suspect as well. Sorry, but middle class people don't spend 24k for "preschool" (fuck, I pay less than that for college for 2), which adds another 2k a month to the pot. Some other numbers as well are low (utilities and fuel for example, but those are little people things), so once again I think this is a crock budget.

So overall I think this is a crock of crap and a perfect example of how people think their lives are so much worse than they are.

[ChefImGartenPavillion]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

done, Brother

Guess here im a newbie, however, there aren't that many newbies in the German WO, are there?

[Gyrsur]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

done, Brother

Guess here im a newbie, however, there aren't that many newbies in the German WO, are there?

so when did you hear about Bitcoin for the first time?

EDIT: you are a forum member since below one year. but this could mean nothing. I've heared about Bitcoin over one year before I registered to the Forum because I thought FBI, CIA, NSA will hunt me if I do it earlier.  

[serveria.com]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

Hey Mic! Interesting, what is your own prediction?  

[goldkingcoiner]

Do people actually believe Bitcoin will or even can die? Cmon, now. Lets ask the Venezuelans what they think about paying with fiat.

[El duderino_]

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

Hey Mic! Interesting, what is your own prediction?  

Just the worst in guessing things I would follow Hairymaclairy with a slight of more bullishness so we could close the year +5-digit somewhere near 11,777 is the price at dec 31
Maybe a bit higher in front but some n00bs will sell for some more expensive X-mass presents as they normal would buy.....
Just some n00b people with unexpected gains and not able handling there money properly

[Dabs]

@Dabs : Regarding adoption : I am planning to pay my kids tuition fees etc in the year 2040-45 with BTC, if that's count. Hopefully

In that year, 1 BTC (or less) per child should cover a 4 year degree, including all expenses, ... likely those still exist in some form.

[ivomm]

The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.

Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.

It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving. 

I think I already said this many times, also here on the WO.
I have a feeling a lot of people, institutional investors included, are looking at PlanB models, and probably sometimes between here and the halving we'll start seeing some kind of front running. I do agree with LFC scenario of easy 50K after halving in May20.

If the halving rally fails to materialise before or after the halving, say one year after, we still are around today's level, then we will experience a very long and cold cryptowinter II.
Institutional money, who is ready to dump a LOT of money into cryptos, see Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, high volatility asset. Something that is very precious in low volatility/negative interest rate financial environment.
If bitcoins then fails to provide those investors  with a positive return, then we we'll have a serious adoption problem posing a threat to further growth.

It is good to have a Plan B (pun intended), in case things don't go the way we expect. So, I appreciate every well informed contrarian opinion even if it's bearish. It is good to play every possible scenario. The worst you are talking about - staying at the current levels long after the halving  is only theoretically possible, IMHO. With almost all bitcoins mined and millions (probably even billions) new investors, I don't think this is a realistic scenario after 3 halvings. For example, after the one year bear market we saw a strong bull run with an increase more than 4 times, while most of the traders were still asking themselves if the 3k bottom was the last! There were no good news and the halving was a year away. This is a clear sign that 3K was not a real price but way below that price. The Summer action was also a good sign, since it showed that the exchanges have a good liquidity and can sustain 10K price. The bad news of bakkt's flop was a major blow to that support, but still the price in the next days fell only 15%, not 30%+ like in some previos bad days. So, even without institutional investors, we can expect the price will continue to grow. This will mean a 10K-ish rise of the price each year, so by 2025 we definitely should be above 50K. Then only 450BTC will be mined each day and many more will be lost, as Dabs pointed out. Again, I don't think it will be the case,  this is at least for me the worst bearish practically possible scenario. And since in the high volatile markets there are always explosive bull runs, it is highly probable that 50K will be touched much earlier.

[Dabs]

2012   25   10500000   75.00%
2016   12.5   15750000   87.50%
2020   6.25   18375000   93.75%
2024   3.125   19687500   96.88%
2028   1.5625   20343750   98.44%
2032   0.78125   20671875   99.22%

So... these are estimates, and the first number is the year, so that could be off by 1 (or a few months). By 2030 we'd have 20 million corns and close to 99% of all corns mined. Within the next few years after that we will see more adoption. More hash rate.

And yet, anyone who gets in at that point is still an early adopter. I would guess we might see some stability by 2040 to 2050 as there are no new (not really) new corns being mined anymore. I mean only 10k corns every year, so that's like 850 corns per month.

The price per mined corn would be higher then, simply because each corn uses up more hashing power and there are less block rewards.

Even if every halving from now till then just results in a mere doubling in value, we are talking about 8 halvings. That's 2.56 million before the year 2050.

The goal now is to set aside some fiat, buy some corn, stick it in cold storage, don't touch it for a decade. A better idea would be to move and upgrade wallets as needed, from time to time, even if you just consolidate your corns into new addresses when fees are low. Like, you can wait a day to pay 1 sat / byte to move them, as you continue to buy $100 or whatever amount.