Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

And they have plans to fork off unclaimed coins to the (biggest) miners

Are you talking about BSV? I do have unclaimed coins... Should I do something? What is the deadline?

I thought that had already been solved and they were NOT doing that.

It's not that I do have much but there's some people in here that do (i.e. Jimbo) so this is public service information totally pertinent for us Bitcoin holders and, even if "accidentally" and for laziness, BSV "holders" too.

If you have any unclaimed scam coins you should dump them on their scum sucking asses just for GP.

[bitebits]

Very interesting reading.

Bitcoin is like gold only with one unique and differentiating property. It can be transported over a communications channel.
@coinbase
 presents a bullish case for bitcoin's commodity-like value in its latest blog post:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/coindeskdata/status/1225902161843937280

Compared to gold, Bitcoin is significantly more volatile. However, Bitcoin volatility is dampening over the years. According to CoinMetrics, average Bitcoin volatility (180d) has declined compared to the first half of the decade: from 6.4% (2011–2015) down to 3.7% (2015–2020).

Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/digital-gold-scarcity-and-bitcoin-halvings-1d6cc16f3e8d

Most interesting to me is that Coinbase is loudly mentioning Bitcoin again. Previous blog posts refused the mention the word, it was all about ‘crypto’.

[Hueristic]

Very interesting reading.

Bitcoin is like gold only with one unique and differentiating property. It can be transported over a communications channel.
@coinbase
 presents a bullish case for bitcoin's commodity-like value in its latest blog post:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/coindeskdata/status/1225902161843937280

Compared to gold, Bitcoin is significantly more volatile. However, Bitcoin volatility is dampening over the years. According to CoinMetrics, average Bitcoin volatility (180d) has declined compared to the first half of the decade: from 6.4% (2011–2015) down to 3.7% (2015–2020).

Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/digital-gold-scarcity-and-bitcoin-halvings-1d6cc16f3e8d

Most interesting to me is that Coinbase is loudly mentioning Bitcoin again. Previous blog posts refused the mention the word, it was all about ‘crypto’.

Coinbase needs bitcoin, bitcoin does NOT need Coinbase.

[ivomm]

By doubling I was simply referring to last year (2019) with a desire to see the trend continuing sans large spikes and drawdowns.

Agreed.

2019 was a doubling of fiat value; that's for sure.

In another thread, I have already been criticized for somewhat selectively stating that point and also I had stated that so far this year, we are up more than 30% (well currently it is about 36%).  So, yeah overall 2019 was a good performing year, but we also have to kind of put the matter in context of having had started very close to the bottom of the drowntrend that drug nearly to the end of 2018.

I just don't think that we can expect some kind of gradual incline, and even if we look at 2019, it was quite the ride that got us through that whole process, and surely lucky to be up nearly 100% for the calendar year.

Many of us anticipate that BTC is ramping up for an upburst, yet it is still uncertain whether we could expect 100% for 2020 and another 100% for 2021, but we also know that there are quite a few of us (and surely I am inclined in that direction too) who are kind of anticipating that 2020 and 2021 are going to at least average !00% for each of those two years by the time we get to the end of 2021.. which would be a mere $28,700 (/2 = $14,350  /2 = $7,175).  So, yeah the next two years may well be decently performing years, but we have to prepare for extreme volatility - which seems quite likely too. 

I think that you, Biodom, anticipate such likely considerable volatility too - even though you might be just hoping for a more gradual wave sequence that is amongst the lesser likely scenarios.

Surely, we are going to find out.. and surely the next couple of years seem to be quite critical^tm in showing us how closely BTC price is likely to track the stock to flow and 4 year fractal model or if any kind of doubt starts to build regarding whether more appropriate models might apply.

No way am I hostile to the theories that bitcoin's price swings might become less severe into the future with a growing market capitalization - but still we had a decent 78x in the 2015 to 2017 growth period, so even a 1/4 of that level of growth is going to put BTC into quite high territories, even if we were to use the current absolute bottom of $3,124 as our starting point - even though I believe that a $6k-ish bouncing off point would probably be more representative of BTC's bouncing off point.... but a 1/4 the volatility which is a 20x still puts BTC's high at anywhere between $65k and $120k.... and maybe you are wanting to go lower than 1/4 of the volatility.. which seems to erring on the side of almost fantasized conservatism in what are likely to be forces underlying BTC's upcoming price forces.   

So, yeah, it is possible that the upcoming bubble (if it happens) will be less than 1/4 the size of the 2015-2017 bubble, even though we really have not been witnessing evidence of such conservativism, and really we have likely been witnessing evidence that bitcoin is even more bullish and even more frontloaded in the ability to perform beyond such conservative constraints.  I like to be conservative too, and not to count my eggs before they are hatched, but such conservativism, if it plays out, is likely going to justify tweaking our currently most historically conforming price prediction models a quite a bit towards the downside... so we will see, we will see.

I am not going to deny that powerful forces are likely going to try to manipulate such BTC price prediction models down or to make us believe them to NOT be true, but I just have my doubts about if they can be successful, especially if we are looking at 2 years or more for the price movements to potentially play out.... they are going to likely try to manipulate down and overdo it, and what happens is exactly the opposite of what you want, which is an explosion to the upside that is NOT sustainable.

Each scenario must be analyzed, including the most negative one. If we are talking about the top of the bull market in the next 4 years, we have to take into account all the factors that have influenced the price in the last 4 years. The question is which factors will be absent and would affect the peak reduction. The difference from $ 175 to $ 19666 is 112x. 1/4 reduction is 28x. One factor is the liquidity of the most bearish exchange, which participates in the price formation. The other factor is the FOMO mania caused by the media at the end of 2017.

In my opinion, the FOMO effect at the end of 2017 did not increase the liquidity. On the contrary, people went to buy shitcoins and miners because they thought bitcoin was very expensive. So the jump to 20K was something that should have happened, even slightly delayed by the numerous bans in China.

Concerning liquidity, there should be signs of a decrease, expressed in lower percentage peaks than in the previous period. So far, I see no objective factors for such a huge 1/4 drop. We even have a double ahead of growth - in July 2019 and the present. After the halving, if FUD is not successful, this overtaking can only increase.

However, on the one hand, the price of 349K (112x) seems too high and comes close to the price of gold. On the other hand, the way the Bitcoin exchanges operate is very different from that of gold exchanges. In Bitcoin exchanges the volatility is very high for a number of reasons. Jumps of 20-40% in one day are normal, and they are determined by the avalanche elimination of short positions. So, even without a rise in liquidity, these things happen. Of course, this cannot go on forever. At some point, liquidity may start to stall.

For example, at 1/10 reduction, we would have a peak of 35K (11x). To me, this is the absolute minimum, in the absence of extremely bad news/FUD that would permanently damage the market. With a 1/4 reduction we would have a peak of 87K (28x). Perhaps the most likely option is a 1/3-1/2 reduction with a peak between 120K and 180K.

[mindrust]

One more dip is possible.

It is possible that I didn't draw this lines correctly but it looks like it is breaking free:



Small possibility of seeing $8k maybe one more time before the next parabolic to $20k.

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-dilemma-facing-china-truly-awful

"Yet for those market participants merrily saying this is “just a flu” (there are some) we also have 4,824, 15% of the total, in critical condition, and 638 deaths. Further, one arguably cannot measure the death-rate of any virus against the number of *currently* sick people: you surely measure it against those who eventually recover vs. those who don’t. Given we have 1,563 who have recovered vs. 638 dead (and 4,824 critical) that is a worrying ratio of 29% dead as an end-outcome, which is right up there with the MERS virus from a few years ago"

Yikes.

[HairyMaclairy]

Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China
7 February 2020
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

Key Points
Question  What are the clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China?

Findings  In this single-center case series involving 138 patients with NCIP, 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit and 4.3% died. Presumed human-to-human hospital-associated transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients.

Meaning  In this case series in Wuhan, China, NCIP was frequently associated with presumed hospital-related transmission, 26% of patients required intensive care unit treatment, and mortality was 4.3%.

Please note re above I understand that the Chinese case definition requires a patient to have developed pneumonia to fall within the scope of the study, therefore the mortality rate is skewed high.  I don't know the rate at which pneumonia develops.  However, mortality rate is skewed down as further patients in intensive care will likely die. 

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
30 January 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

[HairyMaclairy]

If Justin Sun can censor txs on TRX, then yes, Justin Sun has undue control over TRX.

Your implication that Ayre has such control over BSV is just embarrassing ignorance.

ANY SHA256 miner can guarantee that BSV will live. All they need do is not cease mining.

Now go fuck yourself.

Well done Jbear.  I knew you had it in you. 

[Cryptotourist]

You sound salty. Poor thing.

Your moral compass sounds way off. Broken.
Poor(er) thing.

You know nothing of my morals.

OTOH, Excoriating someone merely because they have a conflicting opinion of the relative value of the details of otherwise similar technical implementations seems to be rather broken morality to me. But whatevs. You do you.

But I do.

We don't have conflicting opinions. We both like/value BTC & hodl a position with it.
But what I find morally broken in your posts, is your BSV shilling narrative. To make things worse, you do it here, on the WO.
Not to mention your marvelous triple axel moves when things get squeeze-y.

Yeah, I'll do me, thanks.

[Cryptotourist]

LS & JJG, JJG & LS...

Do I have to pull both of ya ears, to stop you from fighting on who's dick is longer?
You're both bulls, and bulls have a large enough penis anyhow.

Next time I catch you fighting, you're gonna have to show up with your parents, & write 1000 times "I'll be nice to my fellow bull".

[Globb0]

I just ran the calculations on my Bitmain S9i at 12TH and 1,000 watts. (one only, never to ROI) BTC Miner on www.slushpool.com

So it will TAKE 14 years and 2 months for me to make ONE Bitcoin on this puppy!

What boggles my mind is AFTER Halving (currently May 12th, 2020) https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

The same S9i (assuming difficulty the same..as in very unlikely, but still) it will take 28 years to make ONE BITCOIN!

As a result, I bought some BTC, just now, so prepare for a dump in BTC price! (This is how I roll!)

But a different way to have the halving hit you in the face in an obvious way!

Brad
                        

When you put it like that a high price makes more sense

[Globb0]

For anyone looking to really smoke some Hopium, here goes.

What if the Chinese Communist Party ends up losing power from the Coronavirus and transitions to a Democracy in the next few years. What would that mean for Bitcoin.

Ill tell you what it means. We will get full legalization of Bitcoin as a currency in China, a return of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges, a Chinese Bitcoin ETF, and much more.

Percent probability of China suddenly going democratic?



Ultra ultra low?

[Globb0]

In my opinion it is this:

It is one thing to find an alternative protocol to Bitcoin interesting, or believe in it as an investment.

I don't agree with this view, but people have the right to make choices, even if they ultimately prove to be wrong.  Live and let live.

However, going so far as refusing to condemn the objectively indefensible, places someone beyond the possibility of respect.  A fellow traveler ceases to be a friend, which is a shame.

Craig Wright's lack of principles and honesty is objectively indefensible.  This has been proven in a court of law.  He has lied under oath; it is not unreasonable to conclude he lives a tissue of lies.

When any man is obviously of sound mind and intelligent, but still disregards the obvious and will not condemn this plainly malignant, transparent liar, one can only conclude he is either; as corrupt as the man he defends, too egotistical, or too weak and foolish to look in the mirror and admit that he might be wrong.

And again, you conflate my support of BSV with support of CSW. Just no.

Dashjr has stated it is legitimate to kill all non-xtians. Does that taint all of BTC? No. For the person and the coin are two different things.

Do you think TRX and Justin Sun are two different things? Do you think TRX is not tainted by Justin?

If you believe that, then I have some TRX to sell you.  

There are plenty of reasons to completely ignore TRX. So I do.

Irrelevant false equivalence is irrelevant.

“I don’t like your question because I can’t answer it truthfully without revealing my corruption so I am going to pretend that I am above answering it”.

Have you considered running for office?

Don’t be a pussy.  Answer the question. Yes or No.

I answered the question. TRX is irrelevant to me. I can't be bothered to spend the time to look into it. Perhaps you have infinite amounts of free time on your hands. I do not.

Don’t pretend ignorance of Justin Sun and TRX - it’s completely transparent  You always run away from hard questions.

Stop being a pussy and answer the question.   Can Justin Sun be separated from TRX.  Yes or No.  

Go fuck yourself. I have no idea, and I can't be arsed to look into it.

But maybe we can figure it out together. What control does Justin Sun have over TRX? For example, can he censor transactions?

Yes.  Justin Sun can censor transactions the same way Calvin Ayre can



Stop deflecting and running away from the question.  Answer the question.  Yes or No.  

If Justin Sun can censor txs on TRX, then yes, Justin Sun has undue control over TRX.

Your implication that Ayre has such control over BSV is just embarrassing ignorance.

ANY SHA256 miner can guarantee that BSV will live. All they need do is not cease mining.

Now go fuck yourself.

I thought again maybe wrongly they had servers ready to go restoring the chain if they need to roll it back? that sounds to me like a yes, even if it is a defensive measure

[Globb0]

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-dispatches-bleach-trucks-to-spray-down-cities-2020-2

Just getting weirder and weirder out in Communistland. Dont think for one minute that this isnt cosmic punishment for being hostile to Bitcoin. CCP is going down and probably sooner rather than later.

https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1225962215691497472 video of trucks spraying down the city

That screamed propaganda video, look we are mighty. Our big trucks can crush virus.

Always a staged moment is captured

[El duderino_]

About to break AYH ??



Stifler back in bizzz

[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/peterktodd/status/1225918769882636290?s=20

  actually making some sense; on masks

[HairyMaclairy]

Five British nationals including a child have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in France, after staying in the same ski chalet and coming into contact with a Briton who had been in Singapore, the French health minister said.
Agnès Buzyn said none of the patients were in a serious condition.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/coronavirus-five-new-cases-in-france-are-british-nationals

[Arriemoller]

naah

10K Tuesday or Wednesday

Yep, around Feb 12th, if this channel holds up:

Jupiter9?  Is that you?

Nope. If i were him, i'd be like:
Beware! "2020/02/20"...important date, the prophet of blah had his first ejaculation on a 20th feb. too, the prove is, it's written in the stars of the electric universe.

Or similar...

Try harder


EDIT: Good night at $9.794 #thisissomehint

Are you going to be an asshole in this inkarnation as well?

[Arriemoller]

You sound salty. Poor thing.

Your moral compass sounds way off. Broken.
Poor(er) thing.

You know nothing of my morals.

OTOH, Excoriating someone merely because they have a conflicting opinion of the relative value of the details of otherwise similar technical implementations seems to be rather broken morality to me. But whatevs. You do you.

Your morals, or lack thereof, are clear to anyone who reads your posts.

[El duderino_]

For me personal this was one of the best BTC-TA-chart I have ever seen, can someone update it please with where we are or something...?