Ok boyz, its speculation time.
Clearly we are in the early stages of a prehalvening pump. The sample is small, but this wonderful event has never failed to have a pre-pump, nor afaik has the litecoin halvening.
The questions are always:
1. When Pump?
2. How high Pump?The answer to question one is clearly, Pump Now.Number 2 is the more interesting question.
A similar pump to the last halvening pre-pump would take us to as I stated yesterday, 16100. I see this as a minimum for two major reasons. 1. The Global Stock Market (as measured by MSCI ETF
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/world-market-map/world)
The worlds major stock markets are in aggregate hitting all time highs on a regular basis in a lengthy bull market. In the midst of this late stage bull market melt up the world is flooded with money printing as Trump jawbones the Fed to keep his election hopes alive and China is printing at the speed of light to avoid a epidemic induced recession.
A huge swath of the worlds bonds are at negative interest rates and interest rates are at historically rock bottom levels. We are in as risk on of an environment as they come with historically high stock valuations that keep climbing.
The shitty yields for bonds and t-bills make Bitcoin more attractive. The stock market may not be that correlated to Bitcoin in price but the panic to keep pumping it is forcing central banks to money print like crazy. The money printing is of course fantastic for Bitcoin for obvious reasons of supply, demand, and scarcity.
Even if we get the inevitable crash they will just have to print more money, so for stocks its heads Bitcoin wins, and tails Bitcoin wins. If these central bankers weren't arrogant they would be raising rates at the end of a long bull cycle and that would mean less money printing and be a Bitcoin head wind.
Fortunately for us they have put themselves in a box that requires money printing in all scenarios. This is a dream scenario for Hodlers.2. The Aids-Flu (tin foil boyz call it Coronavirus)
Perhaps the Aid-Flu will fizzle out and become a distant memory as the summer comes and nations get it under control. What will certainly not happen is it fading from memory in the next few months.
This virus is sowing massive distrust in governments and for good reasons. Distrust in govs means less faith in fiat and more love for King Bitcoin. Its also forcing central bankers to print more money and helps keep us in the dream scenario discussed above.
Bitcoin is a safe haven and this Aids Swan is proving it. The halvening will only buttress our case for safe haven status as
it will be hard to distinguish how much of our rise is due to a flight to safety and how much is due to the halvening. This will give the faithful (WO Elites an such) the opportunity to push whatever narratives we like with impunity and the masses will fall in line,
because at the end of the day they love sick gainz above all else.The MSM will actually imo prefer to give the Coronavirus credit for our incoming pump. Thats bc they don't like talking about the halvening too much since it makes the masses wonder why the fuck they are slaves to inflationary currency in the first place when the cool kids get their currency supply cut in half by computer algos. This MSM fear of deflation just plays into our hands bc newbs will find an infinite amount of disasters over the years to make them want more Bitcoin. They will misdirect, but we will win either way.
Most of the pump inducing scenarios mentioned above were not in play during the 2016 halvening. Central Bankers were looking for the first opportunity to raise rates. Stocks had been sideways for a year. Negative bond yields were not as widespread, and there was nothing comparable to the Coronavirus.
Prediction:
16100 is a minimum worst case scenario for this halvening pump and a more likely target is the old all time high of 20k. After this perhaps we go a bit higher but most likely it happens in a blow off top form and we get the predictable halvening crash from profit taking.
The profit taking would crash us to about 14k and then we build our way back up to all time highs again in several months, bc after all,
its Bull $eason. TLDR: New all time highs this summer.This is absolutely investment advice. Sell your wife or your neighbors wife into sex slavery and buy Bitcoin for the ride to 100k and beyond.
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