Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The Financial Times Alphaville explains what the halvening (pardon the gobbledygook) is.

Bitcoin’s “halvening” won’t boost its price
By: Jemima Kelly

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/01/30/1580390916000/Bitcoin-s--halvening--won-t-boost-its-price-


In the comments, I found our old friend NLC

That above linked article is behind some kind of paywall (registration wall).  Me, not gonna do it.   

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[kurious]

Interesting...

Bitcoin may enhance the risk and return profile of institutional investment portfolios. More in my "Investment Case for Bitcoin" presentation. Source: https://vaneck.com/globalassets/home/us/insights/blogs/investment-outlook/vaneck-digital-assets--the-investment-case-for-bitcoin.pdf

Source: https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs/status/1224708731650412547

This makes me smile.  A 'small amount of Bitcoin may enhance... portfolios'?  Bless.

A small amount of Bitcoin.... has enhanced some portfolios so much it now makes up a huge part of those portfolios, simply because it's outperformed most other investments by orders of magnitude.   

Some people didn't wait a whole decade to start thinking about buying Bitcoin.   

But hey, you!  Yes, you institutions?  You're in luck - It's not too late.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know about the exact math, but seems to me that you need better than slightly more than 50% in order to actually have an edge, and so should not be fucking around unless your odds are in the 70%plus arena... and how the fuck do you measure it anyhow?

Yeah, a coin toss is 50/50, so getting a bit of an edge will help you in that case, but TA contains many variables and does not even measure all of the variables and sometimes there are folks out there who purposefully manipulate against the TA.. just to fuck folks out of money.

Maybe in the end, I am saying fuck TA and suggesting to establish a system that makes money no matter what.  and stop fucking around with TA that only gives you slightly better than 50% and you are not even sure about that.

very true JJG but for a bullet proof system you need mostly deep pockets to drive the market in "your" direction to get out with a profit in 70 to 80 percent of the trades.

I don't mean to spout out about my system... or maybe I do, but I think that my system is just to accumulate BTC... so it is kind of bullet proof as long as ultimately BTC goes up in the long run.. of course, if BTC does not go up in the long run then it does not end up being bullet proof... so in that sense, my system seems to be bullet proof so long as BTC price continues to go up.. and BTC prices have been continuing to go up, especially if we start to measure from 2015.. but we could even start measuring from late 2013, and overall BTC prices have largely been going up.

There are also ways to shave off enough profits, within my system in order that even if BTC prices were to go to zero, then at least the principle would be recovered, but if you invested no more than you were willing to lose, then you should also be both financially and psychologically prepared to ride the matter to zero, if such an extremely unlikely scenario were to play out.. which seems a lot less likely with the more passage of time and the more that BTC continues to go up in price, gradually and with ups and downs along the way.

[JayJuanGee]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.

I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.

Looks good so far.

Boring is best. A little more time to establish support at 7900 might be needed. ..then a few months to get back through 9xxx. would be the most sustainable way forward. Another spike like last Jun/Sep would not be a good sign.

10500 is the first real resistance, and it needs to be taken real slow. So far, so good.

I don't really have any problem with what you are saying, Majormax - except maybe with your term: "need".  

I mean, really, bitcoin no doesn't work like dat.

Bitcoin does not just do things gradually.. at some point, we will have an explosion and thereafter a correction after the explosion.  

It is just the way that things work out when you have an s-curve exponential adoption asset like bitcoin and people involved, too.

[JayJuanGee]

The Financial Times Alphaville explains what the halvening (pardon the gobbledygook) is.

Bitcoin’s “halvening” won’t boost its price
By: Jemima Kelly

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/01/30/1580390916000/Bitcoin-s--halvening--won-t-boost-its-price-


In the comments, I found our old friend NLC

That above linked article is behind some kind of paywall (registration wall).  Me, not gonna do it.   

Bypass paywall works in chrome. https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
Was going to copy the article here until I saw the copyright warnings.

I am too fraidy kitty...  I am NOT that interested in reading the article...

[marcus_of_augustus]

sounds like things in china are starting to fall apart ... watch out for retaliatory actions, cyber-strikes, market-dumps, etc.

Here's one from the fringe that might get your hair standing up.

https://gnews.org/102888/

On the 3rd February, a video about the Wuhan coronavirus was published on a Chinese website named Xilu. Governed by the Chinese Military Commission (CMC), the highest-level Chinese military authority, and operated by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Xilu is the most important official information source of Chinese military force. Its status is equivalent to those of the Pentagon and West Point in the US. The information published there must be approved by Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the CMC and thus is of utmost importance.

According to the latest uploaded video, the Wuhan coronavirus was not naturally evolved. It was not originated from the Huanan  Seafood Market, or from wildlife such as bat, rat or snake etc.. With four genetic sections edited from Zhoushan bat, this virus is artificially synthesised. It is non-immunable, untreatable, uncontrollable, and contagious between humans. ...

[jojo69]

So this really starts to beg the question who?

PRC on accident?  Seems plausible.  To develop countermeasures to a nightmare siphon filter you would need to develop that nightmare yourself in a controlled environment, and the Chinese are not noted for their proficiency at industrial hygiene.  This seems to be the dominant narrative developing in the West however, which bothers me.

PRC on purpose?  The r0ach theory; facing economic downturn and internal stresses Chinese elites decide to cull their own herd.  Seems unlikely.

The US/Western state actors?  Entirely possible and terrifying.  Are we, in fact, watching WWIII play out before our eyes?

Mossad?  I don't really see a compelling motive, but I wouldn't put anything past them and no list would be complete without.

Non state actor/secret society/Bond villain/aliens?  Scary if it turns out, but pretty unlikely.


I think the important thing is to view with skepticism any tidy story being peddled by the media propaganda machine.

[Biodom]

buy Tesla...derp.

Why WS bobbleheads always whine about btc, but when a stocks goes up 20% every day for what, 5-6 day now, then it is totally cool.
Stock market has become positively insane. Bitcoin is the oasis of sanity.

[bitserve]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.

I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.

Looks good so far.

Boring is best. A little more time to establish support at 7900 might be needed. ..then a few months to get back through 9xxx. would be the most sustainable way forward. Another spike like last Jun/Sep would not be a good sign.

10500 is the first real resistance, and it needs to be taken real slow. So far, so good.

I don't really have any problem with what you are saying, Majormax - except maybe with your term: "need".  

I mean, really, bitcoin no doesn't work like dat.

Bitcoin does not just do things gradually.. at some point, we will have an explosion and thereafter a correction after the explosion.  

It is just the way that things work out when you have an s-curve exponential adoption asset like bitcoin and people involved, too.

I think we already recently had some conversation about the multiple meaning and intensities of "need".

I would say that what Majormax means with "needs", in this particular case, is that it would be better for the price to reach the resistant point above in a kind of way (slowly) so that it doesn't correct as fast as it climbs. Also, even if at some point we will surely see some sort of "explosion" (see? that word could also have different meanings depending on context) and subsequent correction, it would be better for us bulls if that happens from a higher slowly consolidated price.

Does it really NEED to be that way to reach the best outcome? Of course not... it just "needs" it to maximise the probabilities of it. But it could perfectly happen otherwise. That's so obvious that it should be needed (lol) to explicitly mention.

I remember you have in the past also questioned me about some statements in which I used the word "need" in relation to Bitcoin price and I think I didn't, at that time, clarify my position about it. So, this is it and I hope it helps for better understanding any future usage of the word "need" I might unconsciously use in the future when talking about price dynamics

[El duderino_]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.

I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.

Looks good so far.

Boring is best. A little more time to establish support at 7900 might be needed. ..then a few months to get back through 9xxx. would be the most sustainable way forward. Another spike like last Jun/Sep would not be a good sign.

10500 is the first real resistance, and it needs to be taken real slow. So far, so good.

Though.... to visit 7900 etc isn’t really that necessary imo, and a spike isn’t the worst as well, if it goes hard forward to dip back lower then that’s just how the market goes.... if
We go steady just the same
...
all just different paths leading to a same point.....

[HairyMaclairy]

In some good news on the virus front the last 2 days of data show the trend is peaking for cases outside of China. Few more days like this and we have dodged the proverbial thermonuclear biobomb.

China infection rate is still accelerating, they're fucked for now.

Thank you Trump for taking decisive action against WHO and Chinese pleadings to quarantine the commies', keep the Chinese Communist virus mess inside China and allow the rest of the world to follow suit and avoid chinese commie bullying threats over trade, etc.

So far, yes. But that doesn't mean it's as good as over yet. Nobody knows the number of early, undiscovered infections, that maybe only induced mild forms of sickness, but the spreading continues. Two weeks incubation time ain't no shit.
However, the good news for China is, that the count of recovered is increasing faster now than the count of deaths, at least regarding official numbers.
The list of countries/regions where infections were found is still growing, too.
I think about four weeks (three from now) are needed to get a better picture of the spread and infection rates.

Agreed, we are not out of the woods yet. Idiotically, Thailand, Myanmar, Indonesia and the Phillipinnes still have open borders with China so we need to watch for outbreaks there and isolate those countries if needed. I don't see ANY good news coming out of China for 2-3 months.

... the next 2 weeks are critical.

Idiotic countries also include the UK and EU

At the stage am now concerned about open borders with Hong Kong

[Biodom]

An official version:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7

Furthermore, it was found that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus.

I don't have time to read it carefully, maybe during the weekend.
From a first look at the abstract, unless there are clear areas where you can see the other 4% being of artificial/or other source origin, the idea that it is an artificial construct appears to have little support. In artificial construct, there would be larger areas of little sequence similarity, i would think.
Again, keep digging, maybe there would be a sudden revelation re other 4%.

[bitserve]

buy Tesla...derp.

Why WS bobbleheads always wine about btc, but when a stocks goes up 20% every day for what, 5-6 day now, then it is totally cool.
Stock market has become positively insane. Bitcoin is the oasis of sanity.

Maybe becase for that kind of "conventional" stocks to surge in price it is needed that they WS types are also in pumping it themselves. So they are not gonna question their own actions. Not before they sell, I mean. Then they will talk about how it was a bubble. And blah blah blah... Rinse and repeat.

[El duderino_]

Pre halving corn needs.
High price, main stream adoption.
Craving for 5-dig.

[JayJuanGee]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.

I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.

Looks good so far.

Boring is best. A little more time to establish support at 7900 might be needed. ..then a few months to get back through 9xxx. would be the most sustainable way forward. Another spike like last Jun/Sep would not be a good sign.

10500 is the first real resistance, and it needs to be taken real slow. So far, so good.

I don't really have any problem with what you are saying, Majormax - except maybe with your term: "need".  

I mean, really, bitcoin no doesn't work like dat.

Bitcoin does not just do things gradually.. at some point, we will have an explosion and thereafter a correction after the explosion.  

It is just the way that things work out when you have an s-curve exponential adoption asset like bitcoin and people involved, too.

I think we already recently had some conversation about the multiple meaning and intensities of "need".

I would say that what Majormax means with "needs", in this particular case, is that it would be better for the price to reach the resistant point above in a kind of way (slowly) so that it doesn't correct as fast as it climbs. Also, even if at some point we will surely see some sort of "explosion" (see? that word could also have different meanings depending on context) and subsequent correction, it would be better for us bulls if that happens from a higher slowly consolidated price.

Does it really NEED to be that way to reach the best outcome? Of course not... it just "needs" it to maximise the probabilities of it. But it could perfectly happen otherwise. That's so obvious that it should be needed (lol) to explicitly mention.

I remember you have in the past also questioned me about some statements in which used the word "need" in relation to Bitcoin price and I think I didn't, at that time, clarify my position about it. So, this is it and I hope it helps for better understanding any future usage of the word "need" I might unconsciously use in the future when talking about price dynamics

Hahahahaha

You are not going to censorship me...  


This happens to be one of my sensitivity points (i have a lot of them), so it seems that I respond to these kinds of asserted "stability" points quite a bit, and that is when members assert that bitcoin needs to be "stable" into the future, and yeah they are implicitly suggesting a condition, but still.... it is an unrealistic expectation... Yeah... we all would like BTC to be stable, but it is NOT going to happen... I mean there is about a snowball's chance in hell for bitcoin to become stable at this point in its life.

I understand that even though in this case Majormax does kind of lean towards a prescription for BTC to be stable, he likely does not even believe his own words.  Sure, he is saying these kinds of things quite frequently and seemingly inclined towards overly bearish sentiments, NOT only in his suggestions about bottoms that "need" (sure he might mean preferred to be) to be tested, but also he is suggesting that bitcoin should not be getting out of hand in terms of explosive UPPITY, otherwise the BTC price is going to crash.. and I agree that it is more likely to crash if it goes up quickly, but what the fuck we gonna do... I mean sometimes it might go up too quickly and then continue to go up MOAR.  I doubt that there is a need to complain about that.

Perhaps, I don't really disagree with him about what might happen or what becomes more likely to happen, except towards assigning numbers to it (his numbers might be a bit higher than mine), but in the end, bitcoin does not act stable, and sometimes does not really go down as much as theoretically it would seem necessary to go down because frequently it seems that members, including Majormax, are failing and refusing to adequately account for bitcoins s-curve exponential adoption... and trying to attribute more maturity to bitcoin, as an asset class, than it seems to deserve.  

I surely do not have anything against Majormax, but I believe that he has too much bearishness ingrained into his head, and we (royal we) NEED to beat that bearishness out of his head to the extent practicable and feasible (not physically but with lots (walls) of bear-beating words).      

[realr0ach]

buy Tesla...derp.

Why WS bobbleheads always wine about btc, but when a stocks goes up 20% every day for what, 5-6 day now, then it is totally cool.
Stock market has become positively insane.

Looks pretty obvious the cybertruck debacle was a staged event to try and bait shorters for a squeeze - not one broken window, but two...yea sure.  There's also the fact the world might be going through peak oil, so maybe companies that don't make electric cars might be the ones that are worthless instead.  It supposedly requires over $100 a barrel oil to justify new exploration, so new finds have been virtually nothing (if there's even any big finds to be had) and it seems like the oil industry is heading towards a seneca cliff even if there is lots of undiscovered oil out there because nobody is looking for it.

[bitserve]

You are not going to censorship me...  

I don't want to censorship you! I just want to smack some sense in your head so that you stop being distracted by the subtle and irrelevant details of everyone's writing styles and focus (and argue if you feel the need) on the practical/real meaning of the contents FFS!  

[realr0ach]

Let's pump the brakes on JayJuanGee-ism, swap it over to Nazism.

[marcus_of_augustus]

An official version:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7

Furthermore, it was found that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus.

I don't have time to read it carefully, maybe during the weekend.
From a first look at the abstract, unless there are clear areas where you can see the other 4% being of artificial/or other source origin, the idea that it is an artificial construct appears to have little support. In artificial construct, there would be larger areas of little sequence similarity, i would think.
Again, keep digging, maybe there would be a sudden revelation re other 4%.

96% similarity genetically is made-for-tv pablum you usually get out of Nature ... it's not a science journal, it's a science propaganda and history journal.

... humans are 96% genetically similar to chimpanzees. Someone's monkeyed with nCoV and now humanity has to deal with the exposure and alteration to our immune systems (and probably genomes) for all eternity.

[lightfoot]

An official version:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7

Furthermore, it was found that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus.

I don't have time to read it carefully, maybe during the weekend.
From a first look at the abstract, unless there are clear areas where you can see the other 4% being of artificial/or other source origin, the idea that it is an artificial construct appears to have little support. In artificial construct, there would be larger areas of little sequence similarity, i would think.
Again, keep digging, maybe there would be a sudden revelation re other 4%.

Good paper and pretty solid support this came from an infected bat and not a bunch of Chinese vampires. Hm....