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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26356529 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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February 20, 2020, 02:37:46 AM

Macro cycles, important point to consider.

Quote
Dips like today can be discouraging to some—particularly to those just entering the space. But remember to keep the macro cycles in mind. #bitcoin
It's going to be an exciting 2-3 years...#Bitcoin 🚀🚀🚀

*Dashed blue line is a projection of upcoming retracement touch points.


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February 20, 2020, 03:24:47 AM
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HOW MUCH BITCOIN YOU NEED TO BE IN THE RICHEST 1% OF BTC HOLDERS

Quote
According to the BlockWorks Group analyst, you only need 0.28 BTC to be in the top 1% richest of the world (in BTC terms).

No more than 5-10 million people will ever own a full Bitcoin

This naturally implies an unfair distribution of the wealth as “whales, hodlers, nations and institutions” hold the lion’s share.


  Bitcoin is distributed perfectly fairly based on the time, effort and passion each person put into acquiring and holding their share.  The only natural implication here is that most people ignored Bitcoin until it was too late for them to afford their "fair" share.  Do people get paid to write this tripe?

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February 20, 2020, 03:33:48 AM

Supposedly Binance is back up...amazing how they 'always' seem to have issues on a major pump in price over a few days or the reverse on a dump in price.

I can see the engine room on the mighty Binance Yacht now! Down in the bowels of the ship this is being bellowed:

'Shut her down boys and girls, its time we polish the brass in the engine room and coast for a bit..till we can fire up and drive through this price/pump/dump storm and tranquil seas"

rinse/wash/repeat

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February 20, 2020, 03:35:48 AM

Iike this nonsense more than the previous nonsense.
Hey, I found our friend, just can't remember his name, must be something wrong with my memory Wink
But I recon this woman's with the wrong colored folk


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February 20, 2020, 03:58:17 AM

Supposedly Binance is back up...amazing how they 'always' seem to have issues on a major pump in price over a few days or the reverse on a dump in price.

I can see the engine room on the mighty Binance Yacht now! Down in the bowels of the ship this is being bellowed:

'Shut her down boys and girls, its time we polish the brass in the engine room and coast for a bit..till we can fire up and drive through this price/pump/dump storm and tranquil seas"

rinse/wash/repeat



Happens everywhere.
Even Fidelity had some accounts inaccessible today-just when I wanted to make a rare trade (in fiat).
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February 20, 2020, 04:51:38 AM

"Some Bitcoin promoters are deliberately misrepresenting my concession that anyone who bought Bitcoin 10 years ago and sells now will make money as an endorsement of buying #Bitcoin today. It is not. Those who buy today and sell 10 years from now will likely do so at a loss."

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1229742185651851266

LOL, I wonder what he will say as the years go by and he gets proven wrong over and over, just like for the last 6 or 7.

So far, history has shown that bitcoin has always been higher at any point 4 years after purchase, and of course, at some point that might no longer be true.  There is also the problematic nature that an investment, such as bitcoin that starts from zero is going to have pretty steep performance once it gets a value that is much above zero... So for example, maybe we could start measuring bitcoin's value in 2011, and bitcoin was valued in about a $2 to $7 price range for a large portion of 2011.  Seems like a decently fair starting point to start measuring bitcoin's advancement from there.

Also, we know that no investment is guaranteed, but bitcoin still seems to show pretty strong signs of continuing to be a good investment, even looking at a 10 to 20 year time horizon into the future.. and one thing about being a free-willed individual, we are empowered to change our minds or our investment strategies at any time that we chose, but those people who have invested into bitcoin and have held their bitcoin for longer periods have tended to do well with their bitcoin investments (so far), and even though there is no guarantees about future performance based on past performance, the current evidence still seems to support bitcoin as an investment, at least as a way to hedge 1% to 10% of investment assets and currently, there is no real evidence to suggest that anything is changing in regards to the ongoing investment thesis into bitcoin, except perhaps becoming stronger and stronger and stronger with the passage of time in a kind of Lindy effect kind of way.   

Like Lambie bambie asserts, seems like Peter is going to just continue to be wrong and wrong and wrong, but stubborn as Peter is, he is NOT likely to give up with his nonsense, even if he is shown to be a fool in the next 10 years.
Enough with this 1 to 10 percent.  Roll Eyes 10 percent should be the minimum a coiner invests in King Bitcoin.  Cheesy

You do what the fuck you like, lambie bambie.  I could give less than two shits. 


This 1-10% message is talking to the everybody and to the no coiner to get the fuck off of zero.  Hey, yeah, I get it that many active participants in this thread are already off of zero and are already likely in the 1-10% arena, if not higher, but ultimately, whatever people do, they are best to be tailoring their approach to their own situations in terms of their cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin versus other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time and skills to learn more and/or manage their portfolios including trading and making sure that their life expenses are adequately covered.

Getting off of zero is going to come a long way for a lot of people, especially since we still likely are not even approaching 1% of the world population into bitcoin in any kind of meaningful way.

Likely 1-10% speaks to people who are already balls deep into bitcoin too at least in terms of already establishing their initial stake into bitcoin, and surely there is going to be a decent amount of variance in terms of when people got into bitcoin.  Some people may have started out investing into bitcoin in a bit of a timid manner or they really did not have a lot of capital to inject into bitcoin from the start, and they may have even witnessed the 2015-2017 price run while being on the low side of 1-10% or even that amount of money did not add up to very much for them because se they did not have a lot of capital that they were able to work with.

So, yeah, there is likely little to no get rich quick with bitcoin, even though there can be some gambling towards making bets that bitcoin is going to do another exponential growth that did pay off with some luck or could pay off again with some luck, and surely I do not recommend that anyone invest like that, even though there are certain number of people who might be inclined in that direction, and that is on them to tweak their style in that direction, if they so choose.


Also long term winning for Bitcoin is guaranteed as long as humanity doesnt go extinct. Incorrect usage of my name will result in more GayJaunGee branding as well.  

If you are so fucking stupid as to really believe that long term winning in bitcoin is guaranteed, then that is your choice.  I doubt that very many prudent people agree with you and/or are willing put everything on black in that direction.  I certainly would not recommend such a gambling approach with anything more than a fraction of anyone's wealth or credit.

Surely, if anyone has already been able to ride out one or two exponential periods of bitcoin's growth while having a decent amount of value invested into bitcoin, then there are good chances that the bitcoin portion of their investment has sufficiently increased in value in which they are faced with decisions about whether to reallocate or the extent to which to reallocate - which is also going to depend on their individual circumstances, including their cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin versus other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time and skills to learn more and/or manage their portfolios including trading and making sure that their life expenses are adequately covered.

If someone has their life expenses adequately covered and they are pretty solid in their various investments, I surely do not recommend reallocating back down to 1-10%, especially if their gained value has come from bitcoin price appreciation.  There is a kind of concept in investing regarding increasing your chances of getting richie faster and to a higher level by letting your good investments ride (rather than reallocating them), and I am surely not opposed to such an approach to bitcoin, including that I personally invested a bit over 10% in 2013/2014 to establish my initial stake in bitcoin, but my BTC portfolio has grown to become a much greater than 10% portion of my wealth, and in about early 2017 I decided to let that bitcoin aspect ride and have reconfirmed my "let it ride" commitment on a large number of occasions since then. 

But, I consider that my particular fortune in bitcoin should not be skewing either my discussions of the topic in a thread like this with "everybody" or my discussions with the no coiner / fence sitter or the under committed bitcoin investors, and starting with 1% to 10% remains as great starting out recommendations.... that is surely able to be tweaked by anyone who really embarks upon engaging with the various aspects of his/her own situation to tailor his/her BTC investment approach to his/her circumstances -  even while I also understand that if someone is really young, this category of person might hardly have any investments at all, and for those people, they might start out only investing in one asset while they are building their initial stake, which could end up being bitcoin and then branching out after their investment has had some time to mature and appreciate (hopefully, in the case of investing all into bitcoin, their remains a prudent approach that does mature and price appreciates).

I do get the sense that you, lambie bambie, might be one of those snot-nosed younger investors who surely might not have any other investments or responsibilities in life, and surely in those kinds of cases, it could surely be prudent to start out aiming towards 100% start in terms of establishing a stake, and then diversifying as the investment grows including as you might start to perhaps acquire some real world expenses after you move out of grandma's basement.  So, yes, I will concede that there could be some people in which 100% starting out in bitcoin only could be practical and prudent while establishing early investment capital, but that still does not mean that any of this kind of investment approach is generally applicable or that it would even be a prudent approach for a more mature investor who might have a complicated set of expenses and life style that is already staring them in the face while they are considering getting into bitcoin by getting off of zero.
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February 20, 2020, 04:53:25 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), HairyMaclairy (1)

- Total deaths have risen by 114 to 2,118 with 74,576 cases.

- Russia bans entry Hong Kong and Macau residents.

- South Korea has reported 51 new cases of Coronavirus in 24 hours.

- Japanese prime minister Abe urges people across the country not to go to work or school if they have cold-like symptoms.

- Iranian authorities announce that all schools and universities in Qom (central Iran) will be closed on Thursday, following the confirmation of 2 deaths caused by Coronavirus.

- 2 passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship have died of Coronavirus.

- More than 5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California Department of Public Health. Hundreds more are self-quarantining in Georgia, Washington state,
  Illinois, New York and other states.

- Prices of Paracetamol, other bulk drugs jump as coronavirus crisis stokes fear of shortage. Paracetamol jumps with 40% in India.

- Rising food prices in China.

- New virus cases drop in China as counting of cases changes again..

- China expels three Wall Street Journal reporters. China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

- Erotic stores suffers from Coronavirus, shortage of sex toys.

- China deploys 40 mobile incinerators to Wuhan. Anybody in China could be arrested for not wearing a mask.

- The mass escape from China has begun through unpatrolled borders. Thousands of people have escaped to Vietnam from the Guangxi border.

- The Chinese regime has deployed wartime propaganda measures (1600 internet trolls) to censor info about the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak.

- China offers Corona loans and Corona bonds.


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February 20, 2020, 05:15:42 AM

but then i figure if folks like me we not actually using bitcoin what good is it?

so, no regerts.



Fuckin' a dude.

If nobody uses said commodity for its intended purpose, it is indeed no different from a Ponzi scheme. I can't help but think if there was more people with your mindset, Bitcoin would have arrived to a greater degree within the mainstream than it currently has. However, it is doing just fine, so hodlers HODL on, if you must.

I'd be a millionaire by now if I didn't keep spending 0.1BTC here, 0.05BTC there on takeaways and stuff over the years.
I like to think I helped the cause.
Though in reality, it probably ended up in the hands of whales :/

If you are in the accumulation phase of your bitcoin, then any spending of bitcoin should be obviously considered as having a replacement (a subsequent buy).

Once you get to your maintenance or liquidation phase, then you are likely to have a bit more flexibility, which might allow you to  consider the size and/or portion of your bitcoin a little bit differently, and surely maintenance means what it's name implies.....

In other words, no matter what phase you are in, you should be considering how you are spending your money in terms of gresham's law, and of course, spending the worse monies first, and if you are really depleting the size of your bitcoin holdings because of spending, then you likely have invested too much into bitcoin....   I am not saying that there is NOT any value in spending bitcoin, and I have spent some and found some value in trying to play around or figure out the bitcoin ecosystem in that direction... ... and so spending bitcoin would merely amount to whatever it's dollar value at the time, and so who fucking cares if it would add up to a $million right now.. because you still have to live, and most people can only stock so much away into investing, anyhow.

Surely, any of us who have the ability or the actual fortune to have an income that is greater than our living expenses should feel grateful to be able to do that, but we are still tasked with trying to figure out our own budgets and figuring out how much to live within our means including the value of deferred gratification, when possible.   So, yeah, it makes way more sense to be living it up with a lot of luxuries maybe including buying cups of coffee when you can make it much cheaper without loss of quality and when you have a lot of extra value coming in versus if you are in a stage of setting up your investments, including if you are in a BTC accumulation stage.
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February 20, 2020, 05:34:24 AM

I actually LOVED it,

Good good, here's how I pictured it:



Oh my!!!!!!!!

The above does not paint me in a very good light.  Embarrassed

so embarrassing.

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February 20, 2020, 06:12:58 AM

[edited out]

JJG I am delighted that I have had the opportunity to make you so happy. And myself as well. Truly a win-win.

Now I just need to get that fuck V8 to pay up.

Oh yeah... i had lost track about the exact ending date of such bet, which seems to have unambiguously ended on the 19th.. .

I recall that V8 had wanted the date of the bet to run one year from the time that the bet was made, which seemed kind of long, but reasonable, too, and so yeah, I was able to find the series of posts (below)

Seems like it should not be a problem to receive payment from V8 within a few days of the ending of the time-period of the bet, and of course, there could be reasons that reasonable delays of payment could happen, too.

Actually, the amount of .012 BTC did NOT really seem to be too much at the time, but surely we consider that the price of BTC has gone up nearly 3x, so the amount does seem like a bit more, when thinking about it currently.

 

re: The bottom is in bet.
HairyMaclairy bets that it is.
Last of the V8s bets that it is not.
One litecoin.
I'd rather only bet against Hairy, but thanks for the offers @kurious, @arriemoller.
I'd want no upper limit as was suggested, as I think it could fluctuate higher than that and still come down lower.
Bitstamp low of 3122.
If Bitstamp becomes unavailable, how about preev, bitcoinaverage? some other named exchange?
I'd want a year just to keep it simple, though I do think it could happen later than that (3.7% likelihood for JJG).
Would be happy to send my litecoin to escrow if needed.
Payment in btc equivalent is acceptable. No one actually wants the shitcoin itself.
If that's agreeable...


Agreed.  If the Bitcoin price falls below US$3,122 on Bitstamp (or if Bitstamp not available for any reason, Bitcoinaverage Global Bitcoin Price Index USD) at any time prior to 20 February 2020, then Hairy will pay V8 BTC0.012.  If the Bitcoin price does not fall below US$3,122 prior to 20 February 2020, then V8 will pay Hairy BTC0.012.   


Propose to lock in current LTC exchange rate of approx BTC0.012 (Bitstamp) to keep it simple.  Please quote above if amenable.

Agreed. It's a bet. Good luck Mr. Maclairy.

Good luck Monsieur De La V8s
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February 20, 2020, 06:18:28 AM

[edited out]

JJG I am delighted that I have had the opportunity to make you so happy. And myself as well. Truly a win-win.

Now I just need to get that fuck V8 to pay up.

Oh yeah... i had lost track about the exact ending date of such bet, which seems to have unambiguously ended on the 19th.. .

I recall that V8 had wanted the date of the bet to run one year from the time that the bet was made, which seemed kind of long, but reasonable, too, and so yeah, I was able to find the series of posts (below)

Seems like it should not be a problem to receive payment from V8 within a few days of the ending of the time-period of the bet, and of course, there could be reasons that reasonable delays of payment could happen, too.

Actually, the amount of .012 BTC did NOT really seem to be too much at the time, but surely we consider that the price of BTC has gone up nearly 3x, so the amount does seem like a bit more, when thinking about it currently.

 

re: The bottom is in bet.
HairyMaclairy bets that it is.
Last of the V8s bets that it is not.
One litecoin.
I'd rather only bet against Hairy, but thanks for the offers @kurious, @arriemoller.
I'd want no upper limit as was suggested, as I think it could fluctuate higher than that and still come down lower.
Bitstamp low of 3122.
If Bitstamp becomes unavailable, how about preev, bitcoinaverage? some other named exchange?
I'd want a year just to keep it simple, though I do think it could happen later than that (3.7% likelihood for JJG).
Would be happy to send my litecoin to escrow if needed.
Payment in btc equivalent is acceptable. No one actually wants the shitcoin itself.
If that's agreeable...


Agreed.  If the Bitcoin price falls below US$3,122 on Bitstamp (or if Bitstamp not available for any reason, Bitcoinaverage Global Bitcoin Price Index USD) at any time prior to 20 February 2020, then Hairy will pay V8 BTC0.012.  If the Bitcoin price does not fall below US$3,122 prior to 20 February 2020, then V8 will pay Hairy BTC0.012.   


Propose to lock in current LTC exchange rate of approx BTC0.012 (Bitstamp) to keep it simple.  Please quote above if amenable.

Agreed. It's a bet. Good luck Mr. Maclairy.

Good luck Monsieur De La V8s

Wup wup congrats Hairy! Being a bull pays off!  Grin
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February 20, 2020, 06:22:37 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

- The mass escape from China has begun through unpatrolled borders. Thousands of people have escaped to Vietnam from the Guangxi border.
I can correct a bit about this, because I'm currently working here, a little concerned about the news. This escape took place, but it was unsuccessful because Vietnam had tightened the border, they lined up with thousands of people and asked to cross the border, however, they were not allowed. Anyway, Vietnam is still doing its job well. I saw this news more than 7 days ago. About a thousand people wanted to cross the border but failed  Cheesy
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February 20, 2020, 07:08:25 AM

This dip came perfectly for me. Now it can go back to 10k+, I don't mind.
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February 20, 2020, 07:27:06 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

Thank you JJG for that burst of WO history.

Wup wup congrats Hairy! Being a bull pays off!  Grin

Being a bull in the world’s greatest bull market pays handsomely.
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February 20, 2020, 07:41:42 AM

I actually LOVED it,

Good good, here's how I pictured it:



Oh my!!!!!!!!

The above does not paint me in a very good light.  Embarrassed

so embarrassing.



Don't you care what other people think of you  Wink
But if you didn't do so, watch the movie. The character your nick was overlaid next to on the screenshot is the most noble one in this masterpiece.

I had a bad dream tonight. Peter Schiff wanking off hard to r0ach inserting a buttered gold bar into his emergency exit door, while Mnuchin was secretly watching from outside, lubing up a big red silicone dildo with balls in the shape of the dollar sign. This was already hard, but seconds after waking up, i was checking the BTC price to calm myself down a little, and that's where the real nightmare was starting. I hope i am still dreaming while typing this into WO.... [insert vomit emoticon here]
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February 20, 2020, 07:45:15 AM

I actually LOVED it,

Good good, here's how I pictured it:



Oh my!!!!!!!!

The above does not paint me in a very good light.  Embarrassed

so embarrassing.



Don't you care what other people think of you  Wink
But if you didn't do so, watch the movie. The character your nick was overlaid next to on the screenshot is the most noble one in this masterpiece.

I had a bad dream tonight. Peter Schiff wanking off hard to r0ach inserting a buttered gold bar into his emergency exit door, while Mnuchin was secretly watching from outside, lubing up a big red silicone dildo with balls in the shape of the dollar sign. This was already hard, but seconds after waking up, i was checking the BTC price to calm myself down a little, and that's where the real nightmare was starting. I hope i am still dreaming while typing this into WO.... [insert vomit emoticon here]

#nohomo
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February 20, 2020, 08:01:46 AM

HOW MUCH BITCOIN YOU NEED TO BE IN THE RICHEST 1% OF BTC HOLDERS

Quote
According to the BlockWorks Group analyst, you only need 0.28 BTC to be in the top 1% richest of the world (in BTC terms).

No more than 5-10 million people will ever own a full Bitcoin

This naturally implies an unfair distribution of the wealth as “whales, hodlers, nations and institutions” hold the lion’s share.


  Bitcoin is distributed perfectly fairly based on the time, effort and passion each person put into acquiring and holding their share.  The only natural implication here is that most people ignored Bitcoin until it was too late for them to afford their "fair" share.  Do people get paid to write this tripe?

Xhomerx10...  The official: "WO party poop of the day."

Don't you realize, homer, that us early(ier) adopters with .28BTC or more want to feel MOAR better about our lil selfies and our decision to get into BTC... and therefore, appreciate that we are part of an "elite" class and there are lot's of peeps who have less BTC than us...? actually 99% of peeps....   Tongue
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February 20, 2020, 08:38:46 AM

Observing $10,140

Only 82 days until the halvening, things are looking good.



I hold LFC personally responsible for the Bart.
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February 20, 2020, 08:45:45 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), vapourminer (1), gentlemand (1)


I'd be a millionaire by now if I didn't keep spending 0.1BTC here, 0.05BTC there on takeaways and stuff over the years.
I like to think I helped the cause.
Though in reality, it probably ended up in the hands of whales :/

If you are in the accumulation phase of your bitcoin, then any spending of bitcoin should be obviously considered as having a replacement (a subsequent buy).

Once you get to your maintenance or liquidation phase, then you are likely to have a bit more flexibility, which might allow you to  consider the size and/or portion of your bitcoin a little bit differently, and surely maintenance means what it's name implies.....

In other words, no matter what phase you are in, you should be considering how you are spending your money in terms of gresham's law, and of course, spending the worse monies first, and if you are really depleting the size of your bitcoin holdings because of spending, then you likely have invested too much into bitcoin....   I am not saying that there is NOT any value in spending bitcoin, and I have spent some and found some value in trying to play around or figure out the bitcoin ecosystem in that direction... ... and so spending bitcoin would merely amount to whatever it's dollar value at the time, and so who fucking cares if it would add up to a $million right now.. because you still have to live, and most people can only stock so much away into investing, anyhow.

Surely, any of us who have the ability or the actual fortune to have an income that is greater than our living expenses should feel grateful to be able to do that, but we are still tasked with trying to figure out our own budgets and figuring out how much to live within our means including the value of deferred gratification, when possible.   So, yeah, it makes way more sense to be living it up with a lot of luxuries maybe including buying cups of coffee when you can make it much cheaper without loss of quality and when you have a lot of extra value coming in versus if you are in a stage of setting up your investments, including if you are in a BTC accumulation stage.

Basically, the situation I'm in is if I didn't have BTC to supplement my income I'd have a very sad life; never eating out, no holidays, no 'nice' things every-so-often.
I'm VERY lucky to have BTC. Very.
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February 20, 2020, 08:50:45 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

To follow up on yesterdays TA, we currently are breaking down from the head & shoulders pattern with a close below the neckline.

...Bare in mind, we are above the VPVR point of control support at $9,785, with strong volume support around $9,300 level....




I have however channel the parameters of my parallel channel as I'm not convinced this bullish channel is invalidated yet*, especially now the 200 MA on the 4hr is also providing support.



We did find support from the VPVR point of control around $9,300 as expected, but this level will need to hold to avoid falling to the 50 or 200 Day MA (dotted lines).

For reference sake, this is the sort of "unclean" bullish channel I'm thinking could remain intact given the current correction:



A fall below the 200 MA would very much invalidate this outlook and would increase the likelihood of re-testing the 200 Day MA and longer term VPVR control. Still bullish.
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