Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

I do wonder

Is there still a market where punks and ape and whatever being sold for millions…?

[goldkingcoiner]

I just got rekt in the wick below 200 WMA.  Compounding the injury, my desperate 0.01 BTC sell order executed just as the liquidator bot closed in to sell more.  I was left with just over 0.03 BTC in total.  I had some margin available again, so I have been trying to grab back some sats... why not, at this point.  hey, I got myself over 0.04 BTC.

Just in case any newbies are still wondering whether BTC margin is a good idea..... or in case anyone else needs to feel extra-smug about the coins y’all have in your wallets...  I think that my personal train wreck here is done, because it barely even matters anymore if I keep getting ground down into dust.  insert curse words here.  I have rainy-day funds that i refused to let be eaten by the margin account after I had thrown in so much else, so I won’t starve...  I have some things I can use to rebuild...  but I am very close to official nocoiner status.

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.

You would not believe how much money many of us here have lost at the beginning of our Bitcoin journeys... Don't see it as a loss but rather as a fee for learning important lessons which will help you become a better coiner!

[BobLawblaw]

Just FOMOED £500

Rick just did a smash buy of $500. I've already stacked on the way down, and have orders outstanding between $22,500 and $22,400 if we go that low.

Got filled @ $22,500 & $22,450 & $22,400.

Bought > 0.1 BTC today.

Life is good.

[JayJuanGee]

Historically, the 200 WMA has only ever been touched a few times by spot price, but never deeply crossed. In other words, spot price shouldn't go below $22,287 (as of today). If spot price deeply crosses that value (i.e., goes below $20k), it will be a first in Bitcoin's 13-year history.

Each of those dots on that chart are weekly averages, so from time to time, the BTC spot price has gone below the 200-week moving average, but does not tend to be sustained below the 200-week moving average for very long.

We can scan on the chart on the linked webpage to get the actual average BTC price numbers for any day, but we cannot really see specifics for the ups and downs of the day.. and in 2015 between January and October the 200-week moving average moved up from $190 at the beginning of January to $245 by the end of October.

In January 2015 we had BTC spot price lows of $155-ish but the average for the day show higher numbers and the 200-week moving average would have been around mid $190s at that time, and by the time we got to August 2015, the 200-week moving average was about $240 - but the spot price tested $200 and even lingered below $240 for a few of those weeks.

I will concede with you that it may well be difficult to sustain BTC prices below the 200-week moving average, but also, I would not concede that there might NOT be some temporary levels of success from the bearwhale twats to be able to get the BTC price to go below the 200-week moving average and perhaps even lower than we might think is reasonable or plausible and to be able to keep it below the 200-week MA for longer than we expect to be within any kind of range of reasonableness or plausibility.. I have hardly any fucking clue, except for not ruling out extremes - and I am surely hoping that these twats will get reckt as fuck with a spring back.. but I am not going to start counting my chickens too soon.. when it surely seems that we are still in the egg territorystage.

[death_wish]

Anybody mindrusted yet?

I am anti-mindrusting. I am sweating bullets, trying to not prematurely buy the dip. Cmon 20k!

Be careful what you wish for.  I have a feeling that if someone can smash the 200 WMA line and drop it to >10% below that, without the assistance of a Covid mass-panic, they wouldn’t want to stop at $20k.  How does $10k sound to you?

I hope not, and I doubt it.  If the market is really trashed, which it is, we can bounce along/just above 200 WMA for awhile.  It has happened before—several times, for months—without any lasting damage.  That line is a self-fulfilling prophecy, due to how many people do not consider it “buying prematurely”—and with each 1% below that, how much bigger are the walls of bids from people who have been waiting for this?

[vapourminer]

I'm calling it. Experiments over.

i long ago said i would ride this pig into the ground if need be.

swan dive initiated. cuz theres nothing left but style baby.

[Hamza2424]

Just sold 0.05 BTC.  Pushed liquidation price down to about $22,080.  No choice with margin account health around 1.5%; last time I cut it this close (and I was at the computer fully functional), it was the first liquidation.  Another liquidation would dump more, with penalty.  (Not much more to dump, at this point.)

I chose the name for this forum account very well.

Congratulations to everyone who is buying BTC at these prices.

That is a mistake I think so,
Saving a trade by More margin is not really good idea that trade is already about to die and you want to save that trade by more money is a Hopeless decision unfortunately if you consider it the market crashes more ( I wish that should not happen ) What if then more margin is also dead and you sold precious holding as well.

Until you better know how to manage your own portfolio as my observation is about an Overall scenario.

Best of Luck my Wishes are with you.


Yeah  exactly good username = DeathWish that's cool your wish will be accepted with our prayers

Dear Wo Did you added more Margin to save from Liquidation because Its Early Morning and First thing i wanted to See was BTC.

[death_wish]

I just got rekt in the wick below 200 WMA.  [...]

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.

You would not believe how much money many of us here have lost at the beginning of our Bitcoin journeys... Don't see it as a loss but rather as a fee for learning important lessons which will help you become a better coiner!

Thanks for the condolences.  This is the first time that I have ever almost wished that I were a Bitcoin newbie.

Almost.

[sirazimuth]

< funny wonder monkey gorilla gifs>

Thanx for the chuckle mate!

[BitcoinBunny]

< funny wonder monkey gorilla gifs>

Thanx for the chuckle mate!

Glad you had a laugh at it. 

[Hamza2424]

I just got rekt in the wick below 200 WMA.  [...]

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.

You would not believe how much money many of us here have lost at the beginning of our Bitcoin journeys... Don't see it as a loss but rather as a fee for learning important lessons which will help you become a better coiner!

Thanks for the condolences.  This is the first time that I have ever almost wished that I were a Bitcoin newbie.

Almost.

No bro dont get upset its the reality every Thing movies with cycle today you are in loss tomorrow is yours to enjoy the Profit.

Upsdowns makes Personality powerful and BTC ups & Downs Teaches lessons to the economic System

[jojo69]

[BitcoinBunny]

[tadamichi]

I don’t disagree with you about that, either.  You do understand that when I just went through five months of hell and destroyed my own assets with foolishness that I had previously warned others against, I am urgently, passionately warning those who don’t know better—which I did, which makes it worse for me.

Even after my recent experiences, I may try margin again someday.  For example, if I were to devote serious time and effort to studying mathematical finance (I’ve been dabbling with it lately, on a “beginner dipping a toe in” level), become a Real Quant(TM), and create a thoroughly backtested algorithmic HFT bot based on a rigoroous probability model, then—well, then, at that point I would know if and how that bot should use leverage!

Until then, I will stay the hell away from margin.  And I don’t need it.  I can write other bots, that do more basic stuff without risks...  I’m working on that; it was my plan to save my bitcoins from debt that I otherwise had no way to repay.

I will advise others accordingly.

It’s an interesting thought and something worth looking into.
But what i think speaks against bots ever reaching a level to survive such volatile markets consistently, even if based on the best mathematical finance, are two factors:

1. The market is basically infinitely complex, there will never be a point where every possible influencing factor can be modelled into a bot correctly, it’s a catching up game that never ends.

2. Markets are ruled by irrationally, a bot would need to understand emotion, deception, manipulation, politics and other factors.

Although nothing is impossible, i think it’s more efficient to just stick to fundamentals and keep it simple. The market is too much human influenced to be predicted by mathematics. Simple dca and spending time to accumulate more fiat trough businesses or well paying jobs will probably beat trying to time the market, in most cases.

[death_wish]

I'm calling it. Experiments over.

i long ago said i would ride this pig into the ground if need be.

swan dive initiated. cuz theres nothing left but style baby.

* death_wish pours Cognac.

Two purposes.

One:  A toast to that.  Thank you, vapourminer.  Just thank you.  That Antimindrust attitude is a breath of fresh air.  Inspiring.

The other:  I need real sleep if I ever want to do productive moneymaking work.  I do not think I will ever sleep again, unless I get very drunk right now.  I do not drink often.  This bottle has been lasting me for years, for special occasions.  Not much left... may as well make this a good one!

Here’s to that attitude quoted above.  Most people will call it foolish.  But it is the attitude that changes the world, as most people could never do.

Cognac makes everything look cheerier.  I should stop writing soon...  I have never drunkposted here before, lol.

[cAPSLOCK]

Lol.  I log in first thing in the morning and post a couple things...

And bam.  NINE PAGES of new shit. 

I look forward to reading it, but it might take a moment.

That said... I feel compelled to mention... and I do not mean it to be condescending.  I know some of you have been here longer than me.  And some of you are just naturally smarter...

But THIS IS THE FUCKING SHIT!

Do you think Bitcoin is going to stop?  Do you think it loses?  That CDBCs stand a fucking chance AGAINST IT?

ok... LET ME JUST TELL YOU THE TRUTH...  OOPS... CAPS IS ON.

(YEAH bOB, i BOUGHT A LITTLE RUM)

[Gachapin]

Yesterday there was the continuous mass-selling of 0.81001 BTC increments on stamp.

Today it has changed to 0.812 BTC

[Gachapin]

remember "the herd is coming" ?  

This is what it looks like when they're leaving ...


welcome to 21k...  probably last cycle's ATH next...   100k EOY  

[sirazimuth]

[philipma1957]

Sell and buy back immediately, harvest losses...if your trading vol is high enough,  the fees should be  low enough. HIFO with losses harvested make for the best strategy, IMO for US tax payers

Gotta be careful to not screw yourself with short-term vs long-term cap gains though. Loss carry-over is also a potential issue.

yes, those $3K/year are not very generous, lol

but if a 20k sale creates a 40k loss then if you buy it back

and the 20 k rallies to 80k you can sell 40k in under a year with no tax.

and have 20k left over.