Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

I'm calling it. Experiments over.

i long ago said i would ride this pig into the ground if need be.

swan dive initiated. cuz theres nothing left but style baby.

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[1714856477]

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[Hamza2424]

Just sold 0.05 BTC.  Pushed liquidation price down to about $22,080.  No choice with margin account health around 1.5%; last time I cut it this close (and I was at the computer fully functional), it was the first liquidation.  Another liquidation would dump more, with penalty.  (Not much more to dump, at this point.)

I chose the name for this forum account very well.

Congratulations to everyone who is buying BTC at these prices.

That is a mistake I think so,
Saving a trade by More margin is not really good idea that trade is already about to die and you want to save that trade by more money is a Hopeless decision unfortunately if you consider it the market crashes more ( I wish that should not happen ) What if then more margin is also dead and you sold precious holding as well.

Until you better know how to manage your own portfolio as my observation is about an Overall scenario.

Best of Luck my Wishes are with you.


Yeah  exactly good username = DeathWish that's cool your wish will be accepted with our prayers

Dear Wo Did you added more Margin to save from Liquidation because Its Early Morning and First thing i wanted to See was BTC.

[death_wish]

I just got rekt in the wick below 200 WMA.  [...]

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.

You would not believe how much money many of us here have lost at the beginning of our Bitcoin journeys... Don't see it as a loss but rather as a fee for learning important lessons which will help you become a better coiner!

Thanks for the condolences.  This is the first time that I have ever almost wished that I were a Bitcoin newbie.

Almost.

[sirazimuth]

< funny wonder monkey gorilla gifs>

Thanx for the chuckle mate!

[BitcoinBunny]

< funny wonder monkey gorilla gifs>

Thanx for the chuckle mate!

Glad you had a laugh at it. 

[Hamza2424]

I just got rekt in the wick below 200 WMA.  [...]

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.

You would not believe how much money many of us here have lost at the beginning of our Bitcoin journeys... Don't see it as a loss but rather as a fee for learning important lessons which will help you become a better coiner!

Thanks for the condolences.  This is the first time that I have ever almost wished that I were a Bitcoin newbie.

Almost.

No bro dont get upset its the reality every Thing movies with cycle today you are in loss tomorrow is yours to enjoy the Profit.

Upsdowns makes Personality powerful and BTC ups & Downs Teaches lessons to the economic System

[jojo69]

[BitcoinBunny]

[tadamichi]

I don’t disagree with you about that, either.  You do understand that when I just went through five months of hell and destroyed my own assets with foolishness that I had previously warned others against, I am urgently, passionately warning those who don’t know better—which I did, which makes it worse for me.

Even after my recent experiences, I may try margin again someday.  For example, if I were to devote serious time and effort to studying mathematical finance (I’ve been dabbling with it lately, on a “beginner dipping a toe in” level), become a Real Quant(TM), and create a thoroughly backtested algorithmic HFT bot based on a rigoroous probability model, then—well, then, at that point I would know if and how that bot should use leverage!

Until then, I will stay the hell away from margin.  And I don’t need it.  I can write other bots, that do more basic stuff without risks...  I’m working on that; it was my plan to save my bitcoins from debt that I otherwise had no way to repay.

I will advise others accordingly.

It’s an interesting thought and something worth looking into.
But what i think speaks against bots ever reaching a level to survive such volatile markets consistently, even if based on the best mathematical finance, are two factors:

1. The market is basically infinitely complex, there will never be a point where every possible influencing factor can be modelled into a bot correctly, it’s a catching up game that never ends.

2. Markets are ruled by irrationally, a bot would need to understand emotion, deception, manipulation, politics and other factors.

Although nothing is impossible, i think it’s more efficient to just stick to fundamentals and keep it simple. The market is too much human influenced to be predicted by mathematics. Simple dca and spending time to accumulate more fiat trough businesses or well paying jobs will probably beat trying to time the market, in most cases.

[death_wish]

I'm calling it. Experiments over.

i long ago said i would ride this pig into the ground if need be.

swan dive initiated. cuz theres nothing left but style baby.

* death_wish pours Cognac.

Two purposes.

One:  A toast to that.  Thank you, vapourminer.  Just thank you.  That Antimindrust attitude is a breath of fresh air.  Inspiring.

The other:  I need real sleep if I ever want to do productive moneymaking work.  I do not think I will ever sleep again, unless I get very drunk right now.  I do not drink often.  This bottle has been lasting me for years, for special occasions.  Not much left... may as well make this a good one!

Here’s to that attitude quoted above.  Most people will call it foolish.  But it is the attitude that changes the world, as most people could never do.

Cognac makes everything look cheerier.  I should stop writing soon...  I have never drunkposted here before, lol.

[cAPSLOCK]

Lol.  I log in first thing in the morning and post a couple things...

And bam.  NINE PAGES of new shit. 

I look forward to reading it, but it might take a moment.

That said... I feel compelled to mention... and I do not mean it to be condescending.  I know some of you have been here longer than me.  And some of you are just naturally smarter...

But THIS IS THE FUCKING SHIT!

Do you think Bitcoin is going to stop?  Do you think it loses?  That CDBCs stand a fucking chance AGAINST IT?

ok... LET ME JUST TELL YOU THE TRUTH...  OOPS... CAPS IS ON.

(YEAH bOB, i BOUGHT A LITTLE RUM)

[Gachapin]

Yesterday there was the continuous mass-selling of 0.81001 BTC increments on stamp.

Today it has changed to 0.812 BTC

[Gachapin]

remember "the herd is coming" ?  

This is what it looks like when they're leaving ...


welcome to 21k...  probably last cycle's ATH next...   100k EOY  

[sirazimuth]

[philipma1957]

Sell and buy back immediately, harvest losses...if your trading vol is high enough,  the fees should be  low enough. HIFO with losses harvested make for the best strategy, IMO for US tax payers

Gotta be careful to not screw yourself with short-term vs long-term cap gains though. Loss carry-over is also a potential issue.

yes, those $3K/year are not very generous, lol

but if a 20k sale creates a 40k loss then if you buy it back

and the 20 k rallies to 80k you can sell 40k in under a year with no tax.

and have 20k left over.

[hisslyness]

Yesterday there was the continuous mass-selling of 0.81001 BTC increments on stamp.

Today it has changed to 0.812 BTC

Someone got tired of typing 001 and replaced it with a 2…

[Gachapin]

Yesterday there was the continuous mass-selling of 0.81001 BTC increments on stamp.

Today it has changed to 0.812 BTC

Someone got tired of typing 001 and replaced it with a 2…

sure... 

[BitcoinBunny]

There goes 22K.

Oh well.

Goodnight and take care.

[death_wish]

I don’t disagree with you about that, either.  You do understand that when I just went through five months of hell and destroyed my own assets with foolishness that I had previously warned others against, I am urgently, passionately warning those who don’t know better—which I did, which makes it worse for me.

Even after my recent experiences, I may try margin again someday.  For example, if I were to devote serious time and effort to studying mathematical finance (I’ve been dabbling with it lately, on a “beginner dipping a toe in” level), become a Real Quant(TM), and create a thoroughly backtested algorithmic HFT bot based on a rigoroous probability model, then—well, then, at that point I would know if and how that bot should use leverage!

Until then, I will stay the hell away from margin.  And I don’t need it.  I can write other bots, that do more basic stuff without risks...  I’m working on that; it was my plan to save my bitcoins from debt that I otherwise had no way to repay.

I will advise others accordingly.

It’s an interesting thought and something worth looking into.
But what i think speaks against bots ever reaching a level to survive such volatile markets consistently, even if based on the best mathematical finance, are two factors:

1. The market is basically infinitely complex, there will never be a point where every possible influencing factor can be modelled into a bot correctly, it’s a catching up game that never ends.

2. Markets are ruled by irrationally, a bot would need to understand emotion, deception, manipulation, politics and other factors.

Although nothing is impossible, i think it’s more efficient to just stick to fundamentals and keep it simple. The market is too much human influenced to be predicted by mathematics. Simple dca and spending time to accumulate more fiat trough businesses or well paying jobs will probably beat trying to time the market, in most cases.

I want to make it very clear, I am not encouraging any kind of TA or day-trading strategies!

TA is astrology.  (And doubt that anyone could accuse me of low IQ—not that I care.  Cheers to ImThour for his savvy buy, but his forum account personal text is nonsense.)

And (as an issue distinct from but overlapping with TA), amateur day-trading is gambling, maybe getting lucky for awhile, and then getting rekt.

I do not want my posts to mislead anyone.

I am not worried about newbies getting burned experimenting with what I meant by “Real Quant(TM)” stuff—because they can’t.  For instance, here is a screenshot from a tiny part of one page of one academic research paper in the vast field of mathematical finance—I found this some time ago, when I first got curious about how professional market maker bots work:



LOL, I am not worried about newbies getting burned messing with that!

Post to be continued.  Sorry, I was not joking in what I just wrote to vapourminer... limited writing abilities now, hahahah.  I just want to make it absolutely clear for the recvord that newbies should not get the notion that they can beat the market with some fancy-pants trading strategy they found on the web, or got in a hot tip from whomever, or whatever.

What I was talking about requires a ton of maths.  Institutional trading firms such as Blackrock hire people with university degrees in this field.  And they are backed by billions of dollars in capital.  And they run high-performance computer equipment and low-latency networking that you are unlikely ever to obtain.

Besides the general problem that you cannot predict the market to begin with:  You will not beat them with any trading strategy that can >99% of people could actually do.  They will eat you alive.  They will take all of your money.  You will lose, and then you will cry just like me right now... what the hell did I do.........

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation