Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Just being like JJG and doing my DCA


2022 Dca results



Nov 04 - - - - x
Nov 11 - - - - x
Nov 18 - - - - x
Nov 25 - - - - x
Sub Total—— 4x
Dec 02 - - - - x
Dec 09 - - - - x
Dec 16 - - - - x
Dec 23 - - - - x
Dec 30 - - - - x
Sub Total—— 9x dca for 2022


2023 Future dca results
Jan 06 ------ x first one for 2023
Jan 13
Jan 20
Jan 27
Total ————

Looking to see how long I can do this for. Would be nice to do it for all of 2023

[1714683658]

1714683658

[1714683658]

1714683658

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

OT: Torque's New Years Resolution

To watch all the programs on Netflix that interest me over the next few months (mostly documentaries), and then cancel my subscription.

Reason: I am so done with their bullshit agenda-pushing, bait-and-switch garbage shows. Just not worth it anymore.

[TrustedBitcoiner]

looks like market is just about ready to move.

and by move I mean slowly grind up taking weeks to get to 18800 only to fall back to 16950 

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoiners love to catch falling knives.....

https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1609372921104842752?t=lgCnDecB2yU2icLkxKfGZg&s=19
That's right, 2022 was a bad year for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin stands lower today as Luna, FTX fall into blame.

Well if JJG is correct and there really is no 4 year cycle we could be like gold was during Clinton's presidential terms. Plus first term of Bush

I'm wondering when JJG proclaimed any kind of belief that there is no 4-year cycle.  From my point of view, it is almost as if I have frequently said the opposite since I still put quite a bit of weight into the three models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.  1 and 2 are kind of redundant and have a lot of the 4 year cycle contained there-in.. yes based on supply limitations issues, and even thought the stock to flow model may well need to be shifted down on it's curve, I cannot see how it has yet been broken in terms of the overall themes contained therein.  What other models are there that you would be suggesting that I am adopting?  Are you getting me mixed up with someone else?  

Regarding your desire to compare bitcoin to gold seems quite premature, too - at least in terms of how early bitcoin is in its adoption, and I have frequently asserted bitcoin is like 1,000x better than gold - even though it could take 20 to 50 to 150 years or more to actually have bitcoin's 1,000x superiority to gold reflected in it's price.  

So short term we can end up having all kinds of BTC price movements that might cause some folks to reassess bitcoin's value proposition - but it seems quite difficult to dismiss the strength of ongoing underlying bitcoin fundamentals that do not seem to have been undermined.. at least not so far, from various ongoing efforts at attacking and/or manipulating aspects of bitcoin.

1992 to 2004 we stayed in a 200 to 400 slot mostly very close to 300

Gold finally took off in 2005.

 so a long flatness for BTC may be in the cards.

https://nma.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/historic_gold_prices_1833_pres.pdf

HISTORICAL GOLD PRICES - 1833 to Present
The price of gold remained remarkably stable for long periods of time. For example, Sir Isaac Newton, as master of the U.K. Mint, set the gold price at L3.17s. 10d. per troy ounce in 1717, and it remained effectively the same for two hundred years until 1914. The only exception was during the Napoleonic wars from 1797 to 1821. The official U.S. Government gold price has changed only four times from 1792 to the present. Starting at $19.75 per troy ounce, raised to $20.67 in 1834, and $35 in 1934. In 1972, the price was raised to $38 and then to $42.22 in 1973. A two-tiered pricing system was created in 1968, and the market price for gold has been free to fluctuate since then as the table below shows.
Year
Average Price

snip

1992
343.82
1993
359.77
1994
384.00
1995**
383.79
1996
387.81
1997
331.02
1998
294.24
1999
278.98
2000
279.11
2001
271.04
2002
309.73
2003
363.38
2004
409.72
 
Average Year Price
2005
444.74
2006
603.46
2007
695.39
2008
871.96
2009
972.35
2010
1,224.53
2011
1,571.52
2012
1,668.98
2013
1,411.23
2014
1,266.40
2015
1,160.60
2016
1,250.74
*Prices from 1883-1994, World Gold Council. Taken from Timothy Green's Historical Gold Price Table , London prices converted to U.S. Dollars.
**Prices from 1995-present, Kitco.com, based on the London PM fix.

Note I grabbed and altered from the link I posted above.

Now the world is faster than in 1992-2004. so while a 12 year flat space may be too long for flat btc. why not a 3 or 4 year flatness in the 14-22 range?

I doubt that it is very fruitful to be getting caught up in seemingly lame analogies that try to pigeon-hole bitcoin into some kind of a class of asset that is similar to something that you know - even if there are likely going to be a variety of tactics that may well even try to "tame" bitcoin in similar ways that gold had been tamed.

It seems to be a pretty BIG waste of time going down that kind of gold/bitcoin comparison road - when bitcoin remains a different animal in a variety of ways, even if bitcoin shares some similarities to gold.. but in the end, bitcoin beats gold on almost every single metric that matters including verifiability, portability, divisibility - which just with those three we should be able to appreciate the power of bitcoin in terms of some of the difficulties that the powers that be are going to have to control bitcoin in ways that they had been able to control gold - just think of all the poor peeps of the world who are able to easily possess bitcoin.. and even rich folks might decide to hold way more wealth in bitcoin than they were willing to risk holding in gold.. and all of them are able to verify that they really have bitcoin and to divide it and move it in a variety of ways, and sure they (we) may well need to learn a lot of these tactics of managing our own wealth - and skepticism of institutions, but some poor folks may well already have a lot of skepticism of institutions, which maybe they are going to be confused in regards to the various ways to hold and verify their bitcoin too? so there may well be some short-term periods in which some folks may well falsely conclude that the various ways of suppressing bitcoin's price is working, just like it did with gold... but I have my doubts that the powers that be are going to be as successful to suppress bitcoin as you are seeming to suggest them capable of accomplishing.. even when there are a lot of financial/manipulation instruments at their disposal.

OT: Torque's New Years Resolution

To watch all the programs on Netflix that interest me over the next few months (mostly documentaries), and then cancel my subscription.

Reason: I am so done with their bullshit agenda-pushing, bait-and-switch garbage shows. Just not worth it anymore.

First:  fill up your brain with their bullshit, and then cut them off and proclaim that "it's all garbage."   

Wonder how that is going to work out? 

hahahahahaha

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

OT: Torque's New Years Resolution

To watch all the programs on Netflix that interest me over the next few months (mostly documentaries), and then cancel my subscription.

Reason: I am so done with their bullshit agenda-pushing, bait-and-switch garbage shows. Just not worth it anymore.

I unsubscribed a few years ago, though still have access. I'm glad I'm not paying anymore though.

I'm mostly a movie buff and their made for Netflix movies are just absolutely utterly atrocious.
I attempted to watch White Noise. Holy crap, what a shitty movie. Who comes up with that mental crap and why? Was it written in an insane asylum? Did the insane asylum supervisor take a long break when this was happening?
The Grey Man showed that the Russo brothers suck and Infinity War was just a massive fluke. Endgame sucked too.
Also Mike Flanagan, what the F is he doing? Again he is back with a terrible new series, I could barely sit through 2 episodes just like the last one and the last one before that.
His Haunting of Hill House and Oculus are superb and really good horror but everything else he has done since, is just awful and not watchable.

Streaming in general just doesn't seem to be for me. I think the just churn out as much as you can as quick as possible attitude sets a low standard.


Can't imagine subbing to Disney + with the endless Star Wars milking. I used to be the biggest fan of the movies.

Probably the most memorable thing I "streamed" (made especially for streaming) recently that I can recommend is Spirited on Apple TV, it is a good Christmas musical movie, fun with decent songs, a big exception to the bad streaming movies rule it seems to me. You have to give it 10-15 minutes to get into it. I almost turned it off before that.

Netflix just seems to be getting worse even though they have big names and big budgets.

---

Greatly enjoyed Top Gun Maverick and Avatar 2 at the cinema though.

Both had minimal agenda in my opinion. It probably says something.
These days, I'm starting to think if it doesn't have Tom Cruise and isn't directed by James Cameron it's a 50-50 gamble it will suck. On streaming the odds are worse in favour of it sucking.

[Paashaas]

They don't make -besides a few- great movies/series anymore thanks to the woke, feminism, anti-masculinity and cancel culture.

They will learn it the hard way by going bankrupt ore so, let them rot.

Read books instead.

[Biodom]

OT: Torque's New Years Resolution

To watch all the programs on Netflix that interest me over the next few months (mostly documentaries), and then cancel my subscription.

Reason: I am so done with their bullshit agenda-pushing, bait-and-switch garbage shows. Just not worth it anymore.

<snip> These days, I'm starting to think if it doesn't have Tom Cruise and isn't directed by James Cameron it's a 50-50 gamble it will suck. On streaming the odds are worse in favour of it sucking.

I beg to disagree...Ridley Scott is just as good as a director, but as far as commercial success-yes, maybe a bit more patchy.
Scott's movies that i liked: Alien (the original one), Black rain (M. Douglas), Gladiator (with Russel Crowe), The Martian (with M. Dimon).
Albeit, he is 85 and started making "historical" movies, although Napoleon could be good.

[Torque]

Greatly enjoyed Top Gun Maverick and Avatar 2 at the cinema though.

Both had minimal agenda in my opinion. It probably says something.
These days, I'm starting to think if it doesn't have Tom Cruise and isn't directed by James Cameron it's a 50-50 gamble it will suck. On streaming the odds are worse in favour of it sucking.

Top Gun: Maverick was the surprise highlight of the year. Tom Cruise is seriously crushing it.

Avatar 2 -I haven't seen yet, but will probably catch it later as a rental stream. Not really that enthused because Cameron is a bit of a non-creative hack. I mean, he said Fire Na'vi for Avatar 3? C'mon, seriously?

Amazon surprised with shows like The Terminal List and Reacher. But reached new lows of ESG agenda-bait garbage with The Rings of Power and Wheel of Time.

Disney+? Oh hell no (ESG everywhere - see Marvel phase 4 garbage, Star Wars garbage, Willow, Disney live action garbage)

Netflix assassinated The Witcher series, then stomped on its grave with the horrid The Witcher: Blood Origin.

I'm so done with Netflix. Keeping Amazon Prime only for the free shipping thing.

I beg to disagree...Ridley Scott is just as good as a director, but as far as commercial success-yes, maybe a bit more patchy.
Scott's movies that i liked: Alien (the original one), Black rain (M. Douglas), Gladiator (with Russel Crowe), The Martian (with M. Dimon).
Albeit, he is 85 and started making "historical" movies, although Napoleon could be good.

Ridley Scott is a great director, but both The Last Duel and House of Gucci were recent commercial failures. Perhaps at 85 it might be time to call it a day? I dunno.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

looks like market is just about ready to move.

and by move I mean slowly grind up taking weeks to get to 18800 only to fall back to 16950 

Feels that way doesn’t it. Think we’re going to be devoid of any excitement for at least 6-9 months. If somebody offered me a deal for the price to be over $25,000 by the end of 2023 I’d take it.

I think we’ll start to move up nicely in mid 2024. It’s going to be at best mediocre until then though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

OT: Torque's New Years Resolution

To watch all the programs on Netflix that interest me over the next few months (mostly documentaries), and then cancel my subscription.

Reason: I am so done with their bullshit agenda-pushing, bait-and-switch garbage shows. Just not worth it anymore.

I was having similar thoughts too. Care to share which documentaries you have in mind? I seem to spend more time trying to find something worth watching on Netflix, than actually watching Netflix.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Inflation and how the central banks and governments are screwing you from all angles...

Yorkshire fish and chip shop from 1976.


Fish and chips are now about £7.50 in the UK... (if you are lucky! My local chippy charges £9.50 for small fish and chips and £11.50 for regular).

According to the Bank of England inflation calculator 21 pence in 1976, should be about £1.30 in today's money.
(https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator)

Those absolute wankers.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Supermarket prices

King Kullen New York

Jan 2023

12 Eggs...............................  $5.79

Arnold White bread 2 lbs........  $6.29

Head Of Iceburg lettuce.......... $2.99

Pound of bacon..................... $10.99

Cheddar cheese lb ...............  $10.99
total __________________$37.05

Summer 2021

12 Eggs ............................ $1.59
Arnold White Bread ............ $4.49
Head of Iceberg lettuce ......  $1.99
Pound of bacon .................  $2.99
Cheddar cheese lb .............  $3.99
total _________________$15.05

18 month time span

[OROBTC]

...

Inflation's a killer...  Pretty soon, I would imagine, we will hear some pretty serious squawking from those in delicate financial circumstances...

*   *   *

But I note that BTC price is very close to 17k once again.  And at the site where I just saw that (bitbo.io), I also note that the current hash rate is 330 EH/s, which is the highest I have ever noted (though I do not follow hash rate closely).

Gold and other precious metals also had a good day, the US$ did not.

[Torque]

OT: Torque's New Years Resolution

To watch all the programs on Netflix that interest me over the next few months (mostly documentaries), and then cancel my subscription.

Reason: I am so done with their bullshit agenda-pushing, bait-and-switch garbage shows. Just not worth it anymore.

I was having similar thoughts too. Care to share which documentaries you have in mind? I seem to spend more time trying to find something worth watching on Netflix, than actually watching Netflix.

Well, I really liked the series 'Ancient Apocalypse'. Very thought provoking and engaging.

Others:

Secrets of the Saqqara Tomb

Secrets of Great British Castles (a little dark at times, but great if you like cool Castle history)

Any of the Animal/Sea Planet documentaries are great

Cold Case Files (bad guys finally get caught, fk yeah some justice in the world)