Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

 suppose that 30% on electricity on btc miners will take place ... wouldn't it contribute to bitcoin scarcity due to some miners stop mining...

No. All mining just moves outside of the US. More money goes to the Chinese.

The current administration appears to be financially incompetent (or actually malicious) so it's hard to discount this could happen.

[Toxic2040]

[dogebearman]

seems half of twitter is waiting for 12k-13k, I wonder if it will happen  

good luck with betting on lower BTC prices when being already 72% under the ATH  

Wouldn't bet on that too. We could see a confirmation of the technical double bottom already at 18k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

When I shorted ETH last week at 1652.04 I did it as a consequence of BTC failing to break the 200MA resistance.
I was expecting BTC to confirm the technical double bottom of June 18th and November 09th one last time.
Now all this wind of news and fud is catching my sails, still I believe the bottom is in technically - just needs one more confirmation.
The only thing that has changed is that we are moving there faster now.

seems half of twitter is waiting for 12k-13k, I wonder if it will happen 

good luck with betting on lower BTC prices when being already 72% under the ATH 

I think crypto twitter is pretty split right now. Maybe 40% expect a rebound from around $20K, another 40% still expect $12-14K with probably around 20% undecided. I say "still expect", but in reality they previously called for $10-12K and have since increased their bearish target by about +$2K. I imagine that with Bitcoin returning to $24K they will be calling for $16-18K again (increasing by +$2K again).

If anything the bears are useful for one thing, being around $4K off the bottom each time. So based on this I'd estimate the lowest price goes is around $18K ($14K+4). Ideally it holds $19K for sake of continuing the uptrend, but this is also the bullish scenario too many are betting on, myself included. I'll look forward to $24K levels again, as I imagine another higher low around $22K ($18K+4) would be in play.

Wouldn't bet on that too. We could see a confirmation of the technical double bottom already at 18k.

This I agree is more realistic than $12-14K right now. Turning previous resistance into support with a technical double rounding bottom is still a reasonable suggestion for now.

[BobLawblaw]

Think I'm officially bailing on Twitter.

Don't see any further need to use it given their heavy handed moderation. Got my own private relay working last night, downloaded the Nostrid software, and was able to start using it locally and really starting to have some fun.

I was amazed at how quickly a response I posted via my private node appeared on Iris.

What a time to be alive...

[machasm]

Think I'm officially bailing on Twitter.

Don't see any further need to use it given their heavy handed moderation. Got my own private relay working last night, downloaded the Nostrid software, and was able to start using it locally and really starting to have some fun.

I was amazed at how quickly a response I posted via my private node appeared on Iris.

What a time to be alive...

Yeah very easy to setup your own relay with Umbrel.
Done the same.
We are at the dawn of the decentralisation of all things. Wrenching back control to the people through peaceful means.
Bitcoin was the Genesis of it all.
As you say very exciting times.

[Gachapin]

seems half of twitter is waiting for 12k-13k, I wonder if it will happen  

good luck with betting on lower BTC prices when being already 72% under the ATH  

Wouldn't bet on that too. We could see a confirmation of the technical double bottom already at 18k.

yeah, I'd give a turn around somewhere in the 18k's the highest probability rn.... soma^TM


BTW:
are we supposed not to get a new poll until next ATH  ??

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macson]

looks like they use real money ^(BTC) to pay off debt.

[Gachapin]

looks like they use real money ^(BTC) to pay off debt.

mmh...  some stale fud in early in the morning....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

When I shorted ETH last week at 1652.04 I did it as a consequence of BTC failing to break the 200MA resistance.
I was expecting BTC to confirm the technical double bottom of June 18th and November 09th one last time.
Now all this wind of news and fud is catching my sails, still I believe the bottom is in technically - just needs one more confirmation.
The only thing that has changed is that we are moving there faster now.

seems half of twitter is waiting for 12k-13k, I wonder if it will happen  

good luck with betting on lower BTC prices when being already 72% under the ATH  

I think crypto twitter is pretty split right now. Maybe 40% expect a rebound from around $20K, another 40% still expect $12-14K with probably around 20% undecided. I say "still expect", but in reality they previously called for $10-12K and have since increased their bearish target by about +$2K. I imagine that with Bitcoin returning to $24K they will be calling for $16-18K again (increasing by +$2K again).

If anything the bears are useful for one thing, being around $4K off the bottom each time. So based on this I'd estimate the lowest price goes is around $18K ($14K+4). Ideally it holds $19K for sake of continuing the uptrend, but this is also the bullish scenario too many are betting on, myself included. I'll look forward to $24K levels again, as I imagine another higher low around $22K ($18K+4) would be in play.

Wouldn't bet on that too. We could see a confirmation of the technical double bottom already at 18k.

This I agree is more realistic than $12-14K right now. Turning previous resistance into support with a technical double rounding bottom is still a reasonable suggestion for now.

Closed the CME "gap", not that I believe in this kind of thing being the utmost important.

Partially OT: I am still 'amazed' as of how fast things went downhill at SVB.
Wed stock at $267 and mostly flat
Thu, a gap down, then plunge with stock ending at $106.
Today-receivership, most likely a ZERO for stock holders, maybe a pittance.
Apparently , they have above 180bil of assets and close to 170bil liabilities, so maybe depositors would get close to 100%, but it would take a long time for those with more than 250K deposits.

[AverageGlabella]

 suppose that 30% on electricity on btc miners will take place ... wouldn't it contribute to bitcoin scarcity due to some miners stop mining...

No. All mining just moves outside of the US. More money goes to the Chinese.

The current administration appears to be financially incompetent (or actually malicious) so it's hard to discount this could happen.

Not many people can afford to move their mining operations out side to another country and I think this only applies to companies and not people like you and me who mine. Moving it to another country means you have to trust someone to run it for you or you have to put it in a house or location you own which is a security or cost problem that most people can not over come.

[Toxic2040]

starboard batteries fire for effect

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hostm]

This is the last chance to change all stablecoins for bitcoin. Many did it at $ 16 - 17 k but now it is still possible. Remember this when bitcoin will be $ 35 - 40 k.

[sirazimuth]

.....

looks like they use real money ^(BTC) to pay off debt.

I do that too.

[BitcoinBunny]

Fin "guy" predicts 100bp interest rate CUT within 6-9 mo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdSiIYBiGjI

Stocks bottom is usually within 6 mo of the cut start, so, say, cuts start in 3-6mo, then bull market starts (in full) in 9-12 mo.
Makes sense, just before the halving.

That...or we are in 1930 (or maybe spring 2007)...I prefer the first scenario (100 bp cut).

Looking to make a sizable purchase of btc and stocks, but not yet.

A lot of people / markets seem to have been predicting this type of Central Bank pivot.

So far it hasn't happened and I can't see it happening as banks are still not passing on the rate increases to savers, foolishly causing their own bank runs instead of protecting themselves.
Powell is also saying something very different than what these pundits are always predicting. He hasn't hinted at a pivot at all, possibly only a slowing of interest rate rises. He may well keep them at 5-6% for several years.

What needs to happen however is for governments to stop spending money they don't have (as THAT is forcing the central banks into impossible positions - just print more but control inflation? How?) and promising voters the world and stop pursuing fairy tale Greta Thunberg utopias that don't help to heat people's homes.
Stop forming this two party axis that is going on in the world and leading to a stupid Cold War scenario: The West vs China / Russia / Middle East (even Saudi Arabia and Iran are now getting along!).
End the WEF nonsense.

Central banks cannot stop that disastrous policy that is a large part of the inflation problem right now.

Get rid of the Neo-cons and multi millionaire / billionaire politicians.

Or just continue and let BTC take over I guess....
 

I always say: if you don't make a decision, then a decision will eventually be made for you.

[JimboToronto]

We are at the dawn of the decentralisation of all things. Wrenching back control to the people through peaceful means.
Bitcoin was the Genesis of it all.

The decentralization movement started long before Bitcoin. The reason why I was immediately attracted to Bitcoin when I first found out about it was that I was already a decentralization enthusiast.

I prefer to think that Napster was the voice crying in the wilderness. Napster itself was centralized (just the users were decentralized) and doomed to fail but it led to a decentralization evolution through Kazaa and Limewire, then through Bittorrent and Magnet Links and then the decentralization of PirateBay onto redundant servers on a network of virtual machines running in the cloud across many countries and continents.

It also wasn't always peaceful. Hardware was seized and people went to jail. In the long run though, the people were destined to win. War has changed over history. No longer do brightly uniformed bugle- and bagpipe-blowing drum-beating armies line up on the field of battle. Guerilla warfare is the standard now and is evolving into bot and virus warfare.

Exciting times indeed.