[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[FloatesMcgoates]

The difficulty adjustment missed the 23:59 GMT deadline by about 30 minutes, guess that selling dividend will have to wait

[Deprived]

Yeah SELLING dividend won't be tomorrow.

After I do tomorrow's dividend I'll post a dummy report for the next day - showing what dividend would be assuming no further profit from investments and no further sales of PURCHASE.

It definitely looks like being around .008 - unless investments go up or down a lot (J-D can fall as well as rise - at present it's slightly up from last report).

[alexius89]

How much BTC is the expected income from investments?
How many btc each share will?

[Lohoris]

Deprived, not sure if you answered this already, but have you looked into automating the transfer of PURCHASE to MINING+SELLING shares?

I did have a quick look around a few days back but couldn't find any Oauth 2 libraries I could use to do it quickly, so as I'll likely have to learn some new language to do it it'll have to wait until I've finished what I'm currently working in.

You should be able to do it pretty easily with Python using urllib2 and google's oauth2 library. If you don't know python yet, it is one of the easier languages to learn and very expressive / powerful.

I don't know python but it did seem to be the one I was likely to end up using.  I'll probably sling up a bounty for someone else to do it - then amend whatever they produce to add in the extra functionality I'll want later.

Had hoped to find a C++ library for it but doesn't seem to be a decent one around.  The issue isn't so much learning another language as learning all the different libraries for things like building a GUI, interfacing with a database etc.

I know python, though I've never used the oauth library.
Unless you find someone who already knows both, I might be of help.
Let me know : )

[Rannasha]

Deprived, not sure if you answered this already, but have you looked into automating the transfer of PURCHASE to MINING+SELLING shares?

I did have a quick look around a few days back but couldn't find any Oauth 2 libraries I could use to do it quickly, so as I'll likely have to learn some new language to do it it'll have to wait until I've finished what I'm currently working in.

You should be able to do it pretty easily with Python using urllib2 and google's oauth2 library. If you don't know python yet, it is one of the easier languages to learn and very expressive / powerful.

I don't know python but it did seem to be the one I was likely to end up using.  I'll probably sling up a bounty for someone else to do it - then amend whatever they produce to add in the extra functionality I'll want later.

Had hoped to find a C++ library for it but doesn't seem to be a decent one around.  The issue isn't so much learning another language as learning all the different libraries for things like building a GUI, interfacing with a database etc.

I'm currently working on a C# library for communication with the BTCT API (and a simple client as a testing platform). Many of the API calls are already implemented and tested.

Adding automated transfers is a simple matter of making a periodically called function that loads the trade history (transfers are listed there) and submits the appropriate transfer requests afterwards.

[Mabsark]

Yeah SELLING dividend won't be tomorrow.

After I do tomorrow's dividend I'll post a dummy report for the next day - showing what dividend would be assuming no further profit from investments and no further sales of PURCHASE.

It definitely looks like being around .008 - unless investments go up or down a lot (J-D can fall as well as rise - at present it's slightly up from last report).

This post is confusing due to the time it was posted. Just to clear things up, will SELLING be paying out on Friday or Saturday?

[twentyseventy]

It will be paying out on Friday around Noon GMT.

[Deprived]

Yeah SELLING dividend won't be tomorrow.

After I do tomorrow's dividend I'll post a dummy report for the next day - showing what dividend would be assuming no further profit from investments and no further sales of PURCHASE.

It definitely looks like being around .008 - unless investments go up or down a lot (J-D can fall as well as rise - at present it's slightly up from last report).

This post is confusing due to the time it was posted. Just to clear things up, will SELLING be paying out on Friday or Saturday?

It'll pay out tomorrow at a bit after 16:00 GMT - that's 1 day and half an hour from now.

EDIT : That's Friday for me and for most time-zones.

[twentyseventy]

Sorry, Noon EDT, 1600 GMT   

Getting my time zones mixed up!

[coco23]

in the meantime it already looks like a very nice dividend for selling after the next difficulty change 

Est Next Difficulty 31817240.82
Est % Change 21.61%
Retarget Distance 10d 20hr 48m 6s

[Deprived]

Sold   2306
Swapped   0
Total   2306
Price   0.048832
Total   112.606592
Less Fee   112.3813788
Man Fee   3.371441364

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1449.445288
12581 LTC-ATF.B1    125.81000000
Coinlenders CD    201.63041398
Just-Dice Balance    108.03255545
TOTAL ASSETS    1,884.91825790
   
Outstanding MINING   39813
Outstanding SELLING   39813
Outstanding PURCHASE   675
Effective Units   40488
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   21,335,329
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00011786
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00589288
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01178577
365 days (Buyback)    0.04301806
405 days (IPO)    0.04773236
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.04714308
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.04832165
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,880.14643576
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.04643713
Days Dividend Post Div   394.01
SELLING Dividend    -        
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,880.14643576
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.04643713
PURCHASE selling price    0.04875898
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.04550839

[twentyseventy]

in the meantime it already looks like a very nice dividend for selling after the next difficulty change 

Est Next Difficulty 31817240.82
Est % Change 21.61%
Retarget Distance 10d 20hr 48m 6s

That'd be nice if it does continue at this pace; DI before yesterday's was 'only' ~9-12% though

[Deprived]

NOT AN ACTUAL REPORT - ESTIMATE OF TOMORROW'S

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1444.673373
12581 LTC-ATF.B1    125.81000000
Coinlenders CD    201.75000000
Just-Dice Balance    108.03255545
TOTAL ASSETS    1,880.26592824
   
Outstanding MINING   39813
Outstanding SELLING   39813
Outstanding PURCHASE   675
Effective Units   40488
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,876.37459782
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.04634397
Days Dividend Post Div   482.19
SELLING Dividend    0.00789968
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,556.53216697
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03844428
PURCHASE selling price    0.04036650
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03767540

This excludes any profit/loss from J-D and also any increase in NAV from sales of PURCHASE.

Projected SELLING dividend is just under .008 - had the difficulty change occured an hour earlier then the dividend would have been today and been just over .008 (difference is 1 day of MINING dividend at the old rate).

Total SELLING dividend paid (to SELLING + PURCHASE) should be around 320 BTC.

[carnitastaco]

er, will you remind me why the selling div didn't happen today?

edit: oh...23:59 GMT deadline....? weird, I don't remember that, oh well, no matter.

[Deprived]

er, will you remind me why the selling div didn't happen today?

edit: oh...23:59 GMT deadline....? weird, I don't remember that, oh well, no matter.

Same thing happened on one of the other two SELLING dividends - the contract was written to pay based on difficulty 16 hours earlier so that, on average, MINING got slightly more than strict PPS without the messier math of working out an exact dividend based on the precise time a difficulty change occurred at.  I subsequently added a personal commitment that where the change occurs prior to midnight (but after 16:00 the previous day) I'd personally pay the difference between old and new dividends to MINING (which I did on one occasion so far).  That wouldn't, of course, have changed SELLING's entitlement to a dividend today had difficulty changed a bit earlier.  The personal commitment was made so as to allow more direct comparison to TAT.VM - but having exactly same dividend payment (other than rounding of the last digit on occasions).

It's simpler this way - once you realise how it's done - but more confusing UNTIL you realise how it's done.

[carnitastaco]

yeah its all good, I remembered the part about mining dividend based on 16 hours, but not the part about that affecting selling div timing if difficulty had changed already, but I haven't actually looked at all the details of the fund since week 1 when I set up my spreadsheet, and now I just look at that

[alexius89]

just a question...

For example the Difficulty rises each time by 20% ( about 2 times per month) so then follows a decrease by about 0.008 per PURCHASE share each time difficulty rises.

The beginning Price was  0.066149BTC  for PURCHASE.

so....0.066149-0.008-0.008-0.008.....and so on...

so after about 4 Months the Price/Value of PURCHASE will be about 0 BTC    is that correct?

What happend then? is the Security OVER?

and what happend with the TOTAL Assets of about 1900 BTC now?

what happend with SELLING shares?



((the numbers are "estimated"))

[Deprived]

just a question...

For example the Difficulty rises each time by 20% ( about 2 times per month) so then follows a decrease by about 0.008 per PURCHASE share each time difficulty rises.

The beginning Price was  0.066149BTC  for PURCHASE.

so....0.066149-0.008-0.008-0.008.....and so on...

so after about 4 Months the Price/Value of PURCHASE will be about 0 BTC    is that correct?

What happend then? is the Security OVER?

and what happend with the TOTAL Assets of about 1900 BTC now?

what happend with SELLING shares?



((the numbers are "estimated"))

You have the principle wrong.

Let's assume every change happened just like the current one.

Next dividend would NOT be 0.008 again.  The amount of the dividend depends on what the current NAV/U is - and that will be much smaller after this one.

So next dividend would actually be more like .0064 then the one after that .0051 etc.  Each time the size of the dividend would get smaller - so although it would tend towards 0 it would never actually get there. (EDIT: that's assuming similar difficulty rise to this one, similar profits from investment etc).

The amount of the dividend isn't actually a percentage of SELLING price anyway - it's based on PURCHASE price (which is a reflection of NAV/U) and isn't the same as the percentage difficulty rsie (it's just a coincidence that this time it happens to be the same % of SELLING price).

The total assets drop when the dividends are paid - that's what they're used for where they go.

You can see how it works yourself.  Just start off with some number like 10 - and take off 10% each time.  How long does it take you to reach 0?

With what you were describing it would reach 0 in 10 gos.  But if you keep multiplying it by 0.9 (which takes 10% off CURRENT value) then you won't reach 0 ever (subject to limitations of whatever you do it on).

[furuknap]

On what basis do you decide it has a higher volatilty?  Here's the graph for MINING (go to 30-day):

http://www.coinflow.co/chart/DMS.MINING

Indeed there WAS a big drop after the difficulty rise on 22nd June.  But thing is, the price rebounded back up again afterwards.  In fact the price now (1 day before a large rise in difficulty) is basically exactly the same as it was on 21st June (the day before the large difficulty rise 2 rises ago).  The evidence just doesn't support your agrument that DMS.MINING has more volatilty.

I'm basing my argument on the fact that the entire security was designed to give a double exposure to changes and that people convinced of a shift in either direction would choose to get that double exposure.

DMS.Purchase is essentially a two-ticket bet; one FOR, one AGAINST. Assuming someone believes in FOR, then it makes no sense to hold the AGAINST, so they sell that. To get in on the FOR bet, they also have to vote against AGAINST. I think you even wrote this in your prospectus.

Right now, there is a 'panic' of sorts due to the difficulty shift, and what I'm seeing is that DMS.Mining drops 20% in 24 hours, whereas BFMines has dropped less than 10% and TAT.VM has dropped just around 10%. A seller that wants to liquidate DMS.Mining now has lost far more than whoever wanted to liquidate his or her BFMines today.

.b

[furuknap]

Right now, there is a 'panic' of sorts due to the difficulty shift, and what I'm seeing is that DMS.Mining drops 20% in 24 hours, whereas BFMines has dropped less than 10% and TAT.VM has dropped just around 10%. A seller that wants to liquidate DMS.Mining now has lost far more than whoever wanted to liquidate his or her BFMines today.

Just so that I'm not just gut-feeling numbers here, I'm using the 24-hour high versus latest sale at 7:46 PM CST:

DMS.Mining high: 0.018661
DMS.Mining latest: 0.01355
DMS.Mining diff: 72%

TAT.VM high: 0.004675
TAT.VM latest: 0.004226
TAT.VM diff: 90%

BFMines high: 0.004
BFMines latest*: 0.003603
BFMines diff: 90%

*actually BFMines latest just popped up to 0.00399 again, so I'm using the 24 hour lowest instead

.b