ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[mechs]

What investors are looking for now is the % of the total network hashrate and things that effect that. 

What investors? the shares of AM have all been sold.  You are merely buying/selling pass thru shares... You could sell all your shares and it would have zero consequence for AM.

That is a totally ridiculous comment.

[1714691727]

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[1714691727]

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[powpow]

What investors are looking for now is the % of the total network hashrate and things that effect that. 

What investors? the shares of AM have all been sold.  You are merely buying/selling pass thru shares... You could sell all your shares and it would have zero consequence for AM.

That is a totally ridiculous comment.

Assume an investor wants to offload their direct shares, they provide to btct who in turn take ownership of the shares.  They then loan their shares to someone else on a "virtual" exchange, that has the following terms of service:


No assets on the site are to be considered real.

The use of this site is for educational and entertainment purposes only.

If an asset issuer on this site defaults, you have ZERO RECOURSE. (not like you have any recourse in most international BTC situations anyway.)


You are invested in btct and nothing else, if the site goes away tomorrow -- they have all the direct shares and you have nothing, because buying pass thru shares is not investing in AM.  Regardless of the price on btct it has zero consequence to the company.

[powpow]

Forgot my favorite part:

Why should we trust this site after so many others have failed?

We are different in several key ways:

• We do not pretend that we are a real registered exchange.
• We do not pretend the assets on the site are real.
• We are a real company, registered in Belize.

[Rival]

Although I am an owner of direct shares and an advocate for direct shares, I also often reinvest dividends into passthrough shares on btc-tc and occasionally TAT shares.

While this does initiate a second and third layer of risk, the value obtained for me does outweigh that risk in no small part due to the track record of the parties involved. If that risk for you outweighs the benefits, then that's fine and quite understandable. Everything about bitcoin is experimental and could vaporize tomorrow leaving many people standing around with an empty cookie jar. These disclaimers are warnings for events that are unforeseen and outside of the control of the operators. They do not wish to be held accountable for such events, nor do I personally think they should be. They are providing a service, you are free to use it or not. As with any other bitcoin-related service, do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. Thats pretty much sound advise to follow, and I don't see it as a negative when someone openly points it out.

[powpow]

Although I am an owner or direct shares and an advocate for direct shares, I also often reinvest dividends into passthrough shares on btc-tc and occasionally TAT shares.

While this does initiate a second and third layer of risk, the value obtained for me does outweigh that risk in no small part due to the track record of the parties involved. If that risk for you outweighs the benefits, then that's fine and quite understandable. Everything about bitcoin is experimental and could vaporize tomorrow leaving many people standing around with an empty cookie jar. These disclaimers are warnings for events that are unforeseen and outside of the control of the operators. They do not wish to be held accountable for such events, nor do I personally think they should be. They are providing a service, you are free to use it or not. As with any other bitcoin-related service, do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. Thats pretty much sound advise to follow, and I don't see it as a negative when someone openly points it out.

I'm not saying don't invest in btct.  But, don't fool yourself into thinking your invested in AM.  AM could care less what the PT holders want of the company.  They have nothing to lose or gain by the price of the shares on an exchange.  Tired of reading all these stuff of "we need an update from friedcat!" or more network %.  AM is not listening, nor should they.

[Rival]

Although I am an owner or direct shares and an advocate for direct shares, I also often reinvest dividends into passthrough shares on btc-tc and occasionally TAT shares.

While this does initiate a second and third layer of risk, the value obtained for me does outweigh that risk in no small part due to the track record of the parties involved. If that risk for you outweighs the benefits, then that's fine and quite understandable. Everything about bitcoin is experimental and could vaporize tomorrow leaving many people standing around with an empty cookie jar. These disclaimers are warnings for events that are unforeseen and outside of the control of the operators. They do not wish to be held accountable for such events, nor do I personally think they should be. They are providing a service, you are free to use it or not. As with any other bitcoin-related service, do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. Thats pretty much sound advise to follow, and I don't see it as a negative when someone openly points it out.

I'm not saying don't invest in btct.  But, don't fool yourself into thinking your invested in AM.  AM could care less what the PT holders want of the company.  They have nothing to lose or gain by the price of the shares on an exchange.  Tired of reading all these stuff of "we need an update from friedcat!" or more network %.  AM is not listening, nor should they.

Actually, I think what PT members desire actually does have a "PT" effect. For example, if PT owners are dissatisfied they will divest themselves of PT shares, dropping the price and lowering the book value of those running the PT shares. By proxy those running the PT offerings will become dissatisfied. People vote with their dollars, or in this case, with their btc.

On a side note, I prefer the so-called lack of transparency because I see a well-run and well-positioned company that has no serious competitors on the horizon. (others may disagree, and that's fine). I tend to believe that this causes the share prices to jump around everywhere on whimsy and rumor making it occasionally easy for me to pick up more shares at a discount to my personal target values. I suppose time will tell if my investments were shrewd.

[binaryFate]

CanaryInTheMine (US reseller) about the new USBs (the one with new colors):

This is the first batch under production in quantity.

 
Does this mean that the previous volume of USB sells were not considered to be "in quantity"?
And therefore that new volumes are going to be much larger than before?

[Trillian]

You are invested in btct and nothing else, if the site goes away tomorrow -- they have all the direct shares and you have nothing, because buying pass thru shares is not investing in AM.  Regardless of the price on btct it has zero consequence to the company.

With humility I beg to differ, security owners continue to get updated lists of share holders, so if btct goes down for whatever reason there are still accounts of who owns what. I have a lot of faith in the system Burnside set up, this may or may not prove to be misplaced, but the track record gives me a lot of confidence.

[BitAddict]

CanaryInTheMine (US reseller) about the new USBs (the one with new colors):

This is the first batch under production in quantity.

 
Does this mean that the previous volume of USB sells were not considered to be "in quantity"?
And therefore that new volumes are going to be much larger than before?

Yes, it was just the breakfast 

[twentyseventy]

The hashrate has been pretty high and stable for a few days now - wish I had more BTC to put in at these prices! I'm in around 2.8-2.9

[ianp]

The hashrate has been pretty high and stable for a few days now - wish I had more BTC to put in at these prices! I'm in around 2.8-2.9

I'm pretty sure we're still hashing at around 55 th/s, as we have been for the last month.

[twentyseventy]

The hashrate has been pretty high and stable for a few days now - wish I had more BTC to put in at these prices! I'm in around 2.8-2.9

I'm pretty sure we're still hashing at around 55 th/s, as we have been for the last month.

No, the hashrate has definitely varied  from that number. FC even acknowledged this in his last update.

[culexevilman]

FC, we need some super good news.

[Rival]

I don't know how many USB asics they are selling but ebay is jammed with them. Picked up 10 more for myself. Hardware sales by pure volume must be huge.

[bitfair]

I don't know how many USB asics they are selling but ebay is jammed with them. Picked up 10 more for myself. Hardware sales by pure volume must be huge.

Hardware seems to be flying out the door and competitors are failing left and right (Avalon refunds chips, BFL under investigation, Ken/ActiveMining goes MIA, BTCGarden, etc.) - but still the ASICMINER shares have dropped in price.

I'm puzzled - anyone have a reasonable explanation?

[ianp]

The hashrate has been pretty high and stable for a few days now - wish I had more BTC to put in at these prices! I'm in around 2.8-2.9

I'm pretty sure we're still hashing at around 55 th/s, as we have been for the last month.

No, the hashrate has definitely varied  from that number. FC even acknowledged this in his last update.

Where did he say this?

[ianp]

I'm puzzled - anyone have a reasonable explanation?

The market is still unproven (i.e., new) and people are skittish. Even at 50% ROI, it's a rather risky investment.

With that said -- the reason the price is low (by my guess) is because of the rather low dividends over the past several weeks. I know that it's short sighted, but people are.. short sighted.

[bbxx]

I don't know how many USB asics they are selling but ebay is jammed with them. Picked up 10 more for myself. Hardware sales by pure volume must be huge.

Hardware seems to be flying out the door and competitors are failing left and right (Avalon refunds chips, BFL under investigation, Ken/ActiveMining goes MIA, BTCGarden, etc.) - but still the ASICMINER shares have dropped in price.

I'm puzzled - anyone have a reasonable explanation?

people are scared that ASICMINER network share will be below 5% soon
but friedcat has best team, most experience and he is smart
if mining will be not profitable, selling miners margin will be small
he will be producing bitcoin vending machines, terminals etc
i will keep shares till the end of bitcoin or for my kids

[velacreations]

low hashrate recently, low dividends, and the rise of Labcoin is what has caused the slump in prices.

Every time Labcoin rises, AM falls a bit.  People are looking to get rich quick with LC.  But don't worry, cause when the LC bubble pops, that money will jump back to AM. 

[twentyseventy]

The hashrate has been pretty high and stable for a few days now - wish I had more BTC to put in at these prices! I'm in around 2.8-2.9

I'm pretty sure we're still hashing at around 55 th/s, as we have been for the last month.

No, the hashrate has definitely varied  from that number. FC even acknowledged this in his last update.

Where did he say this?

In an update last week:

Update

We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.

Could we have an official live hashrate meter from ASICMINER?
We have an internal one, mainly for troubleshooting when some of the racks going down. The hashrate meter based on the blocks mined reflects more of the real speed (plus luck of course). We will buy more bandwidth before making it accessible by the whole internet. It also requires more commitment in maintenance.

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.

Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.
The ASICMiner expansion via franchising is still much within China border. The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.