ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Whtwabbit]

I'd be happy with 0.01 per share. If that's as low as it ever got, that would still be an amazing return for 2-3 BTC/share and solid for 4-5 BTC/share (when comparing to traditional investment opportunities). If it goes lower than 0.01... well, that would cause investor distress without some kind of calming message from Friedcat and co.

Why does Vycid post here 10x per day? Has someone hired him to post negative messages about AM all day as a full-time job? Fairly well written comments, even if negative and unceasing.

He cares about us all and likes all the attention 

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[helixone]

I'd be happy with 0.01 per share. If that's as low as it ever got, that would still be an amazing return for 2-3 BTC/share and solid for 4-5 BTC/share (when comparing to traditional investment opportunities). If it goes lower than 0.01... well, that would cause investor distress without some kind of calming message from Friedcat and co.

Why does Vycid post here 10x per day? Has someone hired him to post negative messages about AM all day as a full-time job? Fairly well written comments, even if negative and unceasing.

He cares about us all and likes all the attention  

Well he spent some time accumulating ASICMINER put options, which allow him to profit if the price goes down. If you search his post history you can see a number of posts where he is trying to buy puts.

One example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2976781#msg2976781

-helixone

[Vycid]

I'd be happy with 0.01 per share. If that's as low as it ever got, that would still be an amazing return for 2-3 BTC/share and solid for 4-5 BTC/share (when comparing to traditional investment opportunities). If it goes lower than 0.01... well, that would cause investor distress without some kind of calming message from Friedcat and co.

Why does Vycid post here 10x per day? Has someone hired him to post negative messages about AM all day as a full-time job? Fairly well written comments, even if negative and unceasing.

He cares about us all and likes all the attention  

Well he spent some time accumulating ASICMINER put options, which allow him to profit if the price goes down. If you search his post history you can see a number of posts where he is trying to buy puts.

One example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2976781#msg2976781

-helixone

Damn straight. My money is where my mouth is. I have never hidden the fact that I own a short position.

I own a short position because it's rational, not because I particularly enjoy seeing you all getting fucked over. In fact, I'd really rather see the small guys get out before the whales do, but there isn't much more I can do to influence your decisions.

As for the volume and thought behind the posts - I work harder than you do. I spend a lot more time thinking about my investments. I try to understand the market as a system, try to understand the factors that drive its movements. Sometimes those factors aren't all rational, which is why it can be so educational to see your viewpoints.

Ultimately it does pay off, and I do end up with an edge on the market - even in traditional markets, where I have beaten the market every year for the past 5 years (the jury is still out on 2013). The competition is smarter, but there is more information, too.

I'd consider starting a hedge fund, but I have this funny feeling that the moment I take someone else's money I'd immediately lose everything and feel like a prick.

Edit: Oh, yeah, and I'm self-aware enough to admit that I like the attention. So what? Go fuck yourself. At least I'm not Mircea Popescu.

[mechs]

I believe fair value at this point has been reached.  Dividend size (unless an extreme #) will have a much smaller impact on the AM price for the next several weeks than it has traditionally.

Those who believe AM will not be able to keep up with the next wave of ASIC technology have sold, while bulls have added to their position. Bulls will be unphased by a drop in dividends since it will only be seen as bullish to them since it means increased R&D.  The bear argument of a decrease in dividends is obvious.

I believe the only two things will move the share price significantly in the next couple months:
1. Any news about the new AM hardware (specs and when it will be delivered)
2. Any news (good or bad) about the competition.  This especially goes for the new batch of unproven unknowns with big promises such as bitfury, cointerra and hashfast.  If they deliver on schedule, AM will drop well below 2.  If they start announcing missing specs or deadlines, this will benefit AM.  News of a serial disappointment such as BFL actually delivering on such projects as the Monarch will pummel AM, but I would think that is as probable to occur as the sun going supernova by the end of the year.  I do predict a lot of whining by those who BFL duped towards the end of the year, but I suspect there will not be much sympathy for them on the boards.  Afterall, full us once shame on you, full us twice.....

I personally believe friedcat will deliver and add the majority of his new hashing power in November and December, with sales to the community of this news higher performing hardware not until February. His emphasis will be on improving the network hash percantage of asicminer rather than selling to the miner community.  To me, if you want to decide if AM will recover or continue its tailspin, your real focus needs to be on the competitors, both individually and collectively. 

I cannot say where Asicminer will be in January 2014, except to say it will be either much higher or lower than it is currently.

My prediction: In January 2014 this will either be go below 1.25 or back above 4.5.  If there were long-dated options available in AM, I would say play the volatility and buy both Out-of-the money call and puts. Sadly, know such options exist, so either pick a side or go to the sidelines if you cannot tolerate volatility.

[neilol]

Damn straight. My money is where my mouth is. I have never hidden the fact that I own a short position.

So many haters - Not sure if I'm the first to congrats but - good call Vycid. You were spot on and filling up on puts from 3.0 all the way up

[twentyseventy]

LOL at the 'Public note' spam on the ASICMiner Div Address today:

"Public Note: Hello, dear Sir! Please read the short text at this link - http://[removed].blogspot.com/. You REALY can help! Great thank you!"

[supert]

LOL at the 'Public note' spam on the ASICMiner Div Address today:

"Public Note: Hello, dear Sir! Please read the short text at this link - http://[removed].blogspot.com/. You REALY can help! Great thank you!"

eh?

Anyway my div prediction: 0.014

[twentyseventy]

LOL at the 'Public note' spam on the ASICMiner Div Address today:

"Public Note: Hello, dear Sir! Please read the short text at this link - http://[removed].blogspot.com/. You REALY can help! Great thank you!"

eh?

Anyway my div prediction: 0.014

Very close! 0.01404192 BTC/share

[xchrisxsays]

LOL at the 'Public note' spam on the ASICMiner Div Address today:

"Public Note: Hello, dear Sir! Please read the short text at this link - http://[removed].blogspot.com/. You REALY can help! Great thank you!"

eh?

Anyway my div prediction: 0.014

Very close! 0.01404192 BTC/share

Where can we find this information?

[twentyseventy]

LOL at the 'Public note' spam on the ASICMiner Div Address today:

"Public Note: Hello, dear Sir! Please read the short text at this link - http://[removed].blogspot.com/. You REALY can help! Great thank you!"

eh?

Anyway my div prediction: 0.014

Very close! 0.01404192 BTC/share

Where can we find this information?

This is the official ASICMiner Dividend address: http://blockchain.info/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF

Each Wednesday, they send that week's mining revenue plus hardware profits (if any) to this address and then send them to all shareholders at once.

[Vycid]

I think you are Mircea Popescu, just another one of your accounts, may as well put PR on the end of your name.  

Oooo! I DO like the sound of Vycid-PR.

Perhaps I shall start riding camels in ill-fitted suits as well.

In other news, divs next week are shaping up to be brutal. With the diff increase, mining revenues are gonna be less than 0.05/share, and if FC has really sold out of hardware... well.

Perhaps he's got something else in that box of tricks, but that box is going to be empty sooner or later.

[freedomno1]

I think you are Mircea Popescu, just another one of your accounts, may as well put PR on the end of your name.  

Oooo! I DO like the sound of Vycid-PR.

Perhaps I shall start riding camels in ill-fitted suits as well.

In other news, divs next week are shaping up to be brutal. With the diff increase, mining revenues are gonna be less than 0.05/share, and if FC has really sold out of hardware... well.

Perhaps he's got something else in that box of tricks, but that box is going to be empty sooner or later.

For some reason I want to see this picture so +1
But make sure to include a sandstorm  

Anyways tentatively calling trend reversal but I'll wait a few more weeks to confirm that suspicion to be aligned with Friedcat's schedule.

[Ytterbium]

When it was ActimeMining's IPO (or whatever it was called back then), some guy wrote "this is putting my kids through college".

 

Even at today's prices that guy will be able to put his kid through college many times over.

[Ytterbium]

It is really guess territory here, but what I find most likely is that AM will still do what has lead them to success: focus on something that is quick to design/build. So I would say 65 or 55, with a 3rd generation of 28 later. People tend to give too much importance to this aspect even if the electricity bill is really far from having any significant impact in the mining industry for the moment.

It has little to do with Electricity cost and more to do with being able to use MUCH less space with MUCH greater Hashrate.

Look at the size of his blades, they do 10-12GH, with 28nm he would be able to do ~500GH or more with that same space more than likely making it much easier to scale and keep a steady hash rate while minimizing maintenance.

But I also agree with you that he could also likely do a 55nm chip and still be in a really good position.

Yeah, this is the key thing.  A single Cointerra chip replaces 50 asicminer blades.

But it's not just space, it's also PCB cost. PCBs and SMT aren't free, and they don't take zero time.  A single massive chip will cost far less to mount and deploy, but cooling a chip like that may be more difficult.

[Vycid]

It is really guess territory here, but what I find most likely is that AM will still do what has lead them to success: focus on something that is quick to design/build. So I would say 65 or 55, with a 3rd generation of 28 later. People tend to give too much importance to this aspect even if the electricity bill is really far from having any significant impact in the mining industry for the moment.

It has little to do with Electricity cost and more to do with being able to use MUCH less space with MUCH greater Hashrate.

Look at the size of his blades, they do 10-12GH, with 28nm he would be able to do ~500GH or more with that same space more than likely making it much easier to scale and keep a steady hash rate while minimizing maintenance.

But I also agree with you that he could also likely do a 55nm chip and still be in a really good position.

Yeah, this is the key thing.  A single Cointerra chip replaces 50 asicminer blades.

But it's not just space, it's also PCB cost. PCBs and SMT aren't free, and they don't take zero time.  A single massive chip will cost far less to mount and deploy, but cooling a chip like that may be more difficult.

Hence the synergy in reducing power draw, one of CoinTerra's primary objectives. Less power in, less heat out.

[Ytterbium]

Even at today's prices that guy will be able to put his kid through college many times over.

That's not how it works.
Either the guy had invested 1 BTC and expects 10000% returns.
Or he invested his life savings and he won't be able to sell without making the price crash.

The IPO price was 0.1BTC, when BTC was $10 or so. Let's say he invested $1k, or 100BTC.

The price now is 2.35. His 100BTC would be worth 2,350BTC, or $282,000.  Easily enough for two college educations, although you're right he wouldn't be able to sell all his shares in one shot (at least not on BTCT) he should be able to gradually sell them over a couple weeks.

[Progressive]

Price is going down? 2.2 @ BTCT, 2.18 @ BitFunder
Something happened?

[VeeMiner]

The IPO price was 0.1BTC, when BTC was $10 or so. Let's say he invested $1k, or 100BTC.

The price now is 2.35. His 100BTC would be worth 2,350BTC, or $282,000.  Easily enough for two college educations, although you're right he wouldn't be able to sell all his shares in one shot (at least not on BTCT) he should be able to gradually sell them over a couple weeks.

why would he sell them when he can pay the tuition from dividends?

[velacreations]

1.99 on BTCT. ouch.

[velacreations]

I was seeing a lot of money going from other securities into ActM yesterday, but today, I just see people cashing out of AM.