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Author Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)  (Read 907160 times)
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rpietila (OP)
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July 02, 2014, 09:25:08 AM
 #4121

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

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July 02, 2014, 09:30:23 AM
 #4122

I feel this thread is like a cult. The more confident everyone is about a bubble to $3,000 the less confident I think we will ever see $1000 again.

I thin you shud all start pumping dread and doom, i would feel a lot better about the future if you did.

Yes, there is certainly a cultish element to it at all. I think, in some ways, this has led to the discounting of all of the amazingly positive news this week. Then again, the "cultish" element -- and by that I don't mean disrespect but rather it is just the diehards who are true believers in the project -- also makes me feel like we have some stability against grand scale fluctuations absent a Gox-like event (and it was probably why BTC was able to survive the Gox clusterstorm). In short, the diehards, counterintuitively, bring stability and that stability has a value of its own. So things are ok.
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July 02, 2014, 09:40:32 AM
 #4123

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

Auction is finished, one bidder took all 30000btc. Price back to normal.
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July 02, 2014, 12:38:19 PM
 #4124

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

The US Government coins at auction went to a single undisclosed bidder
The auction had over 60 bidders. Some were low ball
Lots of rumours and no official data on  the winning bid price
One of the rumours /  leaks put one of the losing bids (Second Market) at around 665 USD indicating the coins sold at a premium
The market was very quiet with an overall bullish sentiment from the auction

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 02, 2014, 01:23:27 PM
 #4125

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

The US Government coins at auction went to a single undisclosed bidder
The auction had over 60 bidders. Some were low ball
Lots of rumours and no official data on  the winning bid price
One of the rumours /  leaks put one of the losing bids (Second Market) at around 665 USD indicating the coins sold at a premium
The market was very quiet with an overall bullish sentiment from the auction


And Tim Draper won the auction :
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/sns-rt-us-usa-bitcoin-20140701,0,4038036.story
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July 02, 2014, 03:31:29 PM
 #4126

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

Oh not much .....

US auction was completed successfully.
California passes bill making crypto officially legal.
Winklevoss ETF bags the symbol COIN, announces will be on NASDAQ, and gets listed on Bloomberg terminal
1800flowers announces they'll start accepting bitcoin.
Newegg starts accepting bitcoin.
Beyoncee and Jay-Z accept bitcoin for upcoming concert.

IOW, just another boring couple of days .... Wink

EDIT: almost forgot! Kuwait finance firm suggests trading oil in bitcoins
http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.-bus.%20news/256/details/398622/kuwait-finance-firm-suggests-trading-oil-in-bitcoins

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
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July 02, 2014, 04:21:10 PM
 #4127

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

Oh not much .....

US auction was completed successfully.
California passes bill making crypto officially legal.
Winklevoss ETF bags the symbol COIN, announces will be on NASDAQ, and gets listed on Bloomberg terminal
1800flowers announces they'll start accepting bitcoin.
Newegg starts accepting bitcoin.
Beyoncee and Jay-Z accept bitcoin for upcoming concert.

IOW, just another boring couple of days .... Wink

EDIT: almost forgot! Kuwait finance firm suggests trading oil in bitcoins
http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.-bus.%20news/256/details/398622/kuwait-finance-firm-suggests-trading-oil-in-bitcoins

Very true. Many of us were focusing on the auction but there was a lot more going on.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 02, 2014, 05:42:55 PM
 #4128


First major step on the road to global reserve status.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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July 02, 2014, 05:53:09 PM
 #4129

I feel this thread is like a cult. The more confident everyone is about a bubble to $3,000 the less confident I think we will ever see $1000 again.

I thin you shud all start pumping dread and doom, i would feel a lot better about the future if you did.

Yes, there is certainly a cultish element to it at all. I think, in some ways, this has led to the discounting of all of the amazingly positive news this week. Then again, the "cultish" element -- and by that I don't mean disrespect but rather it is just the diehards who are true believers in the project -- also makes me feel like we have some stability against grand scale fluctuations absent a Gox-like event (and it was probably why BTC was able to survive the Gox clusterstorm). In short, the diehards, counterintuitively, bring stability and that stability has a value of its own. So things are ok.

I myself refuse to be overly optimistic. Emotionally, I threw my money away when i bought my first bitcoin stash. Me talking about how my Bitcoin are gonna make me a millionaire sounds sooooo pathetic.

Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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July 02, 2014, 06:03:54 PM
 #4130

I feel this thread is like a cult. The more confident everyone is about a bubble to $3,000 the less confident I think we will ever see $1000 again.

I thin you shud all start pumping dread and doom, i would feel a lot better about the future if you did.

Yes, there is certainly a cultish element to it at all. I think, in some ways, this has led to the discounting of all of the amazingly positive news this week. Then again, the "cultish" element -- and by that I don't mean disrespect but rather it is just the diehards who are true believers in the project -- also makes me feel like we have some stability against grand scale fluctuations absent a Gox-like event (and it was probably why BTC was able to survive the Gox clusterstorm). In short, the diehards, counterintuitively, bring stability and that stability has a value of its own. So things are ok.

I myself refuse to be overly optimistic. Emotionally, I threw my money away when i bought my first bitcoin stash. Me talking about how my Bitcoin are gonna make me a millionaire sounds sooooo pathetic.

The excess of doom is extremely tiresome. Superbulls can be a grind too but at least they're a bit more variable and sometimes actually listen to others.
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July 02, 2014, 08:47:56 PM
 #4131

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

Oh not much .....

US auction was completed successfully.
California passes bill making crypto officially legal.
Winklevoss ETF bags the symbol COIN, announces will be on NASDAQ, and gets listed on Bloomberg terminal
1800flowers announces they'll start accepting bitcoin.
Newegg starts accepting bitcoin.
Beyoncee and Jay-Z accept bitcoin for upcoming concert.

IOW, just another boring couple of days .... Wink

EDIT: almost forgot! Kuwait finance firm suggests trading oil in bitcoins
http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.-bus.%20news/256/details/398622/kuwait-finance-firm-suggests-trading-oil-in-bitcoins

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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July 02, 2014, 09:11:42 PM
 #4132

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

Wouldn't it look like dot-com bubble?
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July 02, 2014, 10:39:47 PM
 #4133

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

Oh not much .....

US auction was completed successfully.
California passes bill making crypto officially legal.
Winklevoss ETF bags the symbol COIN, announces will be on NASDAQ, and gets listed on Bloomberg terminal
1800flowers announces they'll start accepting bitcoin.
Newegg starts accepting bitcoin.
Beyoncee and Jay-Z accept bitcoin for upcoming concert.

IOW, just another boring couple of days .... Wink

EDIT: almost forgot! Kuwait finance firm suggests trading oil in bitcoins
http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.-bus.%20news/256/details/398622/kuwait-finance-firm-suggests-trading-oil-in-bitcoins

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

If someone had predicted this list of developments a year ago, it would have seemed to many as being absurdly bullish. And yet, here we are.

What amazing things will have happened between now and one year from now? Perhaps I should start a thread on that question ....

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
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July 02, 2014, 10:46:28 PM
 #4134

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

Wouldn't it look like dot-com bubble?

Do you really understand how disruptive this space is?

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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July 02, 2014, 10:49:44 PM
 #4135

OK, the III Supernode was practically a whole week experience for me, but now safely back in Finland. What has happened meanwhile? Smiley

Oh not much .....

US auction was completed successfully.
California passes bill making crypto officially legal.
Winklevoss ETF bags the symbol COIN, announces will be on NASDAQ, and gets listed on Bloomberg terminal
1800flowers announces they'll start accepting bitcoin.
Newegg starts accepting bitcoin.
Beyoncee and Jay-Z accept bitcoin for upcoming concert.

IOW, just another boring couple of days .... Wink

EDIT: almost forgot! Kuwait finance firm suggests trading oil in bitcoins
http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.-bus.%20news/256/details/398622/kuwait-finance-firm-suggests-trading-oil-in-bitcoins

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

If someone had predicted this list of developments a year ago, it would have seemed to many as being absurdly bullish. And yet, here we are.

What amazing things will have happened between now and one year from now? Perhaps I should start a thread on that question ....

Honestly, the event horizon is getting to the point that looking one year out is hard.
It is starting to really look like BTC might be the foundation for the 2.0 technologies and
A host of other coming technologies. Those "crazy" price projections are starting to
make contextual sense as the holes are being filled with so many possibilities.

Its about sharing

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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July 02, 2014, 10:54:43 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2014, 11:11:08 PM by BitDreams
 #4136

re: auction - Where these coins are going is very interesting. I caught a little of a live press conference and I'd heard mention of four countries.

Here's an old chart from May, I have some of the numbers off a bit, timing too (should have accounted for auction), but my projection for last month's price move is starting to sketch out nicely. The projection targets a challenge of the all time high in August. Maybe I should move that out a bit.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/gT8w1Qnq/ for chart (click the arrow to progress candles)

Here's a pic from back in May:



Edit: the Three Drivers Pattern is a stretch. I learned more about it and made an attempt to correct it here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/ki1IKkbD/
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July 03, 2014, 01:13:03 AM
 #4137

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

Wouldn't it look like dot-com bubble?

Do you really understand how disruptive this space is?

Yes, so imagine how much is going on behind the scenes.......silicon valley, banking, govt and that's not US-centric; this is worldwide.
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July 03, 2014, 02:12:10 AM
 #4138

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

Wouldn't it look like dot-com bubble?

Do you really understand how disruptive this space is?

This, many people see high prices and they immediatly think "oh, it's a bubble, it's a Ponzi, nothing can be that profitable"

But they fail to understand the impact of the underlying technology.

Bitcoin is bigger than facebook, bigger than email, bigger than the internet.

And the best thing is, you can invest directly in the protocol itself!

Many people will slam their head into the wall by next year for not seeing this obvious moneymaker before it increases in value another 100 times or so.
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July 03, 2014, 02:13:30 AM
 #4139

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

Wouldn't it look like dot-com bubble?

Do you really understand how disruptive this space is?

This, many people see high prices and they immediatly think "oh, it's a bubble, it's a Ponzi, nothing can be that profitable"

But they fail to understand the impact of the underlying technology.

Bitcoin is bigger than facebook, bigger than email, bigger than the internet.

And the best thing is, you can invest directly in the protocol itself!

Many people will slam their head into the wall by next year for not seeing this obvious moneymaker before it increases in value another 100 times or so.

I agree.  But 100x by next year?  I am trying hard not to get my hopes up that high.  It could happen though.

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July 03, 2014, 05:12:17 AM
 #4140

What is scary strange is just how fast this space is moving. Think back to just a year. There was not much going on outside speculation.
Now, Wall St. is just starting to get involved, Money is pouring in to infrastructure, Wallets and Services abound, big companies are jumping on board, etc.

What about in another year? Seriously, if this continues (and not to dwell on price but it is a huge measure of adoption and success) we might be in the $5,000-$10,000 range.
Unless something catastrophic happens then things are going to continue. And by catastrophic, I mostly mean I don't think the Elites planned that the free market might
rescue people from their planned USD/Euro collapse... (Unless BTC is theirs  Shocked ) No more wars please... (For the love of People)

IAS

Wouldn't it look like dot-com bubble?

Do you really understand how disruptive this space is?

This, many people see high prices and they immediatly think "oh, it's a bubble, it's a Ponzi, nothing can be that profitable"

But they fail to understand the impact of the underlying technology.

Bitcoin is bigger than facebook, bigger than email, bigger than the internet.

And the best thing is, you can invest directly in the protocol itself!

Many people will slam their head into the wall by next year for not seeing this obvious moneymaker before it increases in value another 100 times or so.

And others -

I often said BTC is as disruptive as the Net. My tune has been changing. The Net is now like electricity, it is a given and a required necessity. We are talking about the language
of money evolving and with it peoples perceptions. This is not just going to be financial. It is going to rock perspectives, realities and imo, in part, usher in another age.
But that event horizon is just so hard to see past, but I can feel and taste it. My point is, this might very well be much bigger than the Net, at least as far as the Political changes it
brings. The Net put pressure on governments but the strong governments were a part of it and used it. The same might happen to BTC, etc. but I have a feeling we are going
to see it GREATLY weaken the power of the State AND it is going to come in forms that we just can't make out from here.

Barring some catastrophe, when we look back on this time in a few years, it will all make sense. Bitcoin and the cryptos are sort of laying down a new Internet.

The whole blockchain technology, which is in huge part where the disruption will also take place is going to rock the business and political world.

The price that is to come is probably very difficult to imagine. Look at the price now, roughly $650. How many people really even have a clue of what BTC is?
How much of Wall St. is in? Has the investment money really even started? Chew on this fellas, we are still early adopters...

Its about sharing

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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