rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Queeq]

All of the above arguments could also be applied to dot-coms when they were in their early stages. I'm sure early adopters were as ecstatic as BTC early adopters. So it must not be a surprise when bubble crashes sooner or later, before cryptocurrencies become as usual as Internet.

[1714466351]

1714466351

[shields]

All of the above arguments could also be applied to dot-coms when they were in their early stages. I'm sure early adopters were as ecstatic as BTC early adopters. So it must not be a surprise when bubble crashes sooner or later, before cryptocurrencies become as usual as Internet.

But the dot-coms were companies not the technology. The success of the internet itself never faltered, it's just that people scrambled to speculate on companies to capitalise on it, and some terrible or highly risky companies got too much money. It's easier to say Bitcoin itself will succeed than it is to say that blockchain.info or coinbase will be the next google. There's also another dimension to crypto in that there can be an alt-coin bubble in parallel.

So, with the dot-com bubble, pets.com is often used an example of the crash. The pets.com of crypto could be a company (e.g. gox), or it could be an alt coin (e.g. litecoin), but it's not crypto itself. Just as HTTP and SMTP (email) went from strength to strength, so will crypto.  

On the otherhand there is a possibility that another crypto overtakes Bitcoin, but this won't happen overnight, and any Bitcoin holders would have plenty of time to diversify towards the alternative before suffering any real loss.

[rpietila]

But the dot-coms were companies not the technology. The success of the internet itself never faltered, it's just that people scrambled to speculate on companies to capitalise on it, and some terrible or highly risky companies got too much money. It's easier to say Bitcoin itself will succeed than it is to say that blockchain.info or coinbase will be the next google. There's also another dimension to crypto in that there can be an alt-coin bubble in parallel.

So, with the dot-com bubble, pets.com is often used an example of the crash. The pets.com of crypto could be a company (e.g. gox), or it could be an alt coin (e.g. litecoin), but it's not crypto itself. Just as HTTP and SMTP (email) went from strength to strength, so will crypto.  

On the otherhand there is a possibility that another crypto overtakes Bitcoin, but this won't happen overnight, and any Bitcoin holders would have plenty of time to diversify towards the alternative before suffering any real loss.

Emphasized for emphasis.

[zimmah]

But the dot-coms were companies not the technology. The success of the internet itself never faltered, it's just that people scrambled to speculate on companies to capitalise on it, and some terrible or highly risky companies got too much money. It's easier to say Bitcoin itself will succeed than it is to say that blockchain.info or coinbase will be the next google. There's also another dimension to crypto in that there can be an alt-coin bubble in parallel.

So, with the dot-com bubble, pets.com is often used an example of the crash. The pets.com of crypto could be a company (e.g. gox), or it could be an alt coin (e.g. litecoin), but it's not crypto itself. Just as HTTP and SMTP (email) went from strength to strength, so will crypto.  

On the otherhand there is a possibility that another crypto overtakes Bitcoin, but this won't happen overnight, and any Bitcoin holders would have plenty of time to diversify towards the alternative before suffering any real loss.

Emphasized for emphasis.

They will likely speak of a "crypto bubble" sometime soon, emphasizing the failure of all other cryptos (and implying a failure of bitcoin as well, most likely just after a peak during a bear market). But indeed bitcoin will be like the internet. It will continue and it won't care what happens around it. And they will surely make reference to the dot com bubble. Bad news sells, good news does not.

And with the millions upon millions invested in bitcoin I doubt anyone will seriously even think about switching to a different crypto. It's not as easy as pressing "delete myspace account" and "welcome to facebook".

[shields]

But the dot-coms were companies not the technology. The success of the internet itself never faltered, it's just that people scrambled to speculate on companies to capitalise on it, and some terrible or highly risky companies got too much money. It's easier to say Bitcoin itself will succeed than it is to say that blockchain.info or coinbase will be the next google. There's also another dimension to crypto in that there can be an alt-coin bubble in parallel.

So, with the dot-com bubble, pets.com is often used an example of the crash. The pets.com of crypto could be a company (e.g. gox), or it could be an alt coin (e.g. litecoin), but it's not crypto itself. Just as HTTP and SMTP (email) went from strength to strength, so will crypto.  

On the otherhand there is a possibility that another crypto overtakes Bitcoin, but this won't happen overnight, and any Bitcoin holders would have plenty of time to diversify towards the alternative before suffering any real loss.

Emphasized for emphasis.

They will likely speak of a "crypto bubble" sometime soon, emphasizing the failure of all other cryptos (and implying a failure of bitcoin as well, most likely just after a peak during a bear market). But indeed bitcoin will be like the internet. It will continue and it won't care what happens around it. And they will surely make reference to the dot com bubble. Bad news sells, good news does not.

The Bitcoin 'bubble' has already done the media cycle at least twice, sentiment is starting to change, it's no longer treated as a fad so much. Other crytpos aren't really even on the media radar tbh.

And with the millions upon millions invested in bitcoin I doubt anyone will seriously even think about switching to a different crypto. It's not as easy as pressing "delete myspace account" and "welcome to facebook".

Well i think it is as easy, I can with a single click trade all my Bitcoins for any other alt currency on an exchange instantly. What is important is that it would take a catastrophic event to cause a critical mass of people to do this in the same time frameframe, and to the same alt coin. It's possible, just really unlikely.

[thezerg]

3 fundamentals of production, decentralized:

1. Information: What to build, how to build it efficiently, how to market your product  (Web)
2. Exchange: How to efficiently get value for your product (Bitcoin)
3. Fabrication: efficiently constructing the product (3d printing baby steps)

[Vanderi]

Hey all and regards to Risto my fellow countryman

I have a question for the good readers and writers of this quality thread.

Elsewhere on these forums I read that a son to a (oil) billionaire got tasked by his father to look into Bitcoin. The result was interesting - he had to advice his father against it, as it was "too transparent". They didn't want other people to know what they invested in and where and when they bought their local coffee.
Even if the story is hearsay, I can relate to a son of a billionaire thinking that way.

What are your thoughts regarding this? How come bitcoin still keeps raking in success after success, when people will lose a large portion of their privacy along with using it?
And finally, how can the general consensus be so one-eyed to think that "mostly criminals or shady dealers will use anonymous coins"? In my country, cash is used almost as widely as cards and nooone, repeat noone will raise a brow if you pull out bills from your pocket. Which are -anonymous-! currency.

Regards,

[pa]

Hey all and regards to Risto my fellow countryman

I have a question for the good readers and writers of this quality thread.

Elsewhere on these forums I read that a son to a (oil) billionaire got tasked by his father to look into Bitcoin. The result was interesting - he had to advice his father against it, as it was "too transparent". They didn't want other people to know what they invested in and where and when they bought their local coffee.
Even if the story is hearsay, I can relate to a son of a billionaire thinking that way.

What are your thoughts regarding this? How come bitcoin still keeps raking in success after success, when people will lose a large portion of their privacy along with using it?
And finally, how can the general consensus be so one-eyed to think that "mostly criminals or shady dealers will use anonymous coins"? In my country, cash is used almost as widely as cards and nooone, repeat noone will raise a brow if you pull out bills from your pocket. Which are -anonymous-! currency.

Regards,

We need Monero or Zerocash to go mainstream for privacy. Bitcoin will be more about accountability it seems.

[Wekkel]

3 fundamentals of production, decentralized:

1. Information: What to build, how to build it efficiently, how to market your product  (Web)
2. Exchange: How to efficiently get value for your product (Bitcoin)
3. Fabrication: efficiently constructing the product (3d printing baby steps)

It's happening.

[thezerg]

If you buy bitcoin from an exchange that you have identified yourself on and spend it directly, it'll be pretty easy for you to be identified.  But when the "virtuous circle" closes (i.e. you receive BTC for a service and spend it for something else and so does everybody else) it will be much harder to trace trace the real people involved.  You'd have to track each individual down and ask who they transferred the coin to -- just like you'd do with cash.

One qualification is that the above can be applied to the shortest path from identified transaction to wallet address.  There may be a shorter path to find the owner of wallet X then the path the attacker is actually interested in.  But wallets are slowly increasing anonymity automatically by encouraging new receive addresses for every txn, and allowing you to spend from specific received coins (coin control).

[thezerg]

3 fundamentals of production, decentralized:

1. Information: What to build, how to build it efficiently, how to market your product  (Web)
2. Exchange: How to efficiently get value for your product (Bitcoin)
3. Fabrication: efficiently constructing the product (3d printing baby steps)

It's happening.

Yes.  My point here is people compare Bitcoin to http and say Bitcoin is as big as or bigger than the web without explaining why.  This is why.  Both it and the web are fundamental building blocks of the modern economy.

[2017orso]

Hey all and regards to Risto my fellow countryman

I have a question for the good readers and writers of this quality thread.

Elsewhere on these forums I read that a son to a (oil) billionaire got tasked by his father to look into Bitcoin. The result was interesting - he had to advice his father against it, as it was "too transparent". They didn't want other people to know what they invested in and where and when they bought their local coffee.
Even if the story is hearsay, I can relate to a son of a billionaire thinking that way.

What are your thoughts regarding this? How come bitcoin still keeps raking in success after success, when people will lose a large portion of their privacy along with using it?
And finally, how can the general consensus be so one-eyed to think that "mostly criminals or shady dealers will use anonymous coins"? In my country, cash is used almost as widely as cards and nooone, repeat noone will raise a brow if you pull out bills from your pocket. Which are -anonymous-! currency.

Regards,

High-level oil transactions are completed with cash?  

The public is not necessarily privy to the details of those transactions, however the media is for the most part.  

Just as in a cumbersome and cluttered SWIFT et al space, the public is not necessarily educated on the bank account numbers of institutions, it can also very well be the case that in a fast-pace bitcoin denominated financial future, with many high-value transactions, the public is not necessarily privy to the addresses of certain institutions.  While it will be easier to investigate and track, it is not necessarily inherently more transparent, especially as side-chains or the like are introduced.  In fact, the potential for transparency can allow for corporate maneuvering through address movement.  Think transaction bluffing, ghost subsidiaries and other high-level tactics which would render the landscape more opaque.

That comment was likely a farce anyways.  It would be absolutely absurd for such a figure to make claim to the potential for transparency as an aggregate detractor from the obvious advantages.  Where was that posted the alt-coin forum?  

[BitChick]

So Risto, since you were, as usual, correct about your prediction for $650 being the price on July 1st, where do you think we are headed now?  This appear to be stagnating right now.  I guess that is not necessarily a huge cause for concern, but I would think we would need to start inching up pretty soon here.  You had mentioned a new ATH at the end of July or into Ausust and I am curious if you think this is still doable.

[btcbeliever]

So Risto, since you were, as usual, correct about your prediction for $650 being the price on July 1st, where do you think we are headed now?  This appear to be stagnating right now.  I guess that is not necessarily a huge cause for concern, but I would think we would need to start inching up pretty soon here.  You had mentioned a new ATH at the end of July or into Ausust and I am curious if you think this is still doable.

good question here ... however Risto you do not pretend to have a crystal ball any more than anyone else, right?  Would you say the July 1 prediction was a lucky guess? 

[2017orso]

So Risto, since you were, as usual, correct about your prediction for $650 being the price on July 1st, where do you think we are headed now?  This appear to be stagnating right now.  I guess that is not necessarily a huge cause for concern, but I would think we would need to start inching up pretty soon here.  You had mentioned a new ATH at the end of July or into Ausust and I am curious if you think this is still doable.

good question here ... however Risto you do not pretend to have a crystal ball any more than anyone else, right?  Would you say the July 1 prediction was a lucky guess? 

He has a great handle on trendline and order dynamics.

What I haven't seen you overtly mention rpietila is market psychology. 

My guess is ~$800 next couple months, test ATH soon after, ~$6000 by Winter.  Would be interested to hear your thoughts on the potential of this occurring.

[Biodom]

So Risto, since you were, as usual, correct about your prediction for $650 being the price on July 1st, where do you think we are headed now?  This appear to be stagnating right now.  I guess that is not necessarily a huge cause for concern, but I would think we would need to start inching up pretty soon here.  You had mentioned a new ATH at the end of July or into Ausust and I am curious if you think this is still doable.

good question here ... however Risto you do not pretend to have a crystal ball any more than anyone else, right?  Would you say the July 1 prediction was a lucky guess?  

He has a great handle on trendline and order dynamics.

What I haven't seen you overtly mention rpietila is market psychology.  

My guess is ~$800 next couple months, test ATH soon after, ~$6000 by Winter.  Would be interested to hear your thoughts on the potential of this occurring.

could it be $600-800 until Dec 31 and $6000 on anytime in Jan or Feb-it would help with my cap gains,  

[rpietila]

So Risto, since you were, as usual, correct about your prediction for $650 being the price on July 1st, where do you think we are headed now?  This appear to be stagnating right now.  I guess that is not necessarily a huge cause for concern, but I would think we would need to start inching up pretty soon here.  You had mentioned a new ATH at the end of July or into Ausust and I am curious if you think this is still doable.

good question here ... however Risto you do not pretend to have a crystal ball any more than anyone else, right?  Would you say the July 1 prediction was a lucky guess? 

He has a great handle on trendline and order dynamics.

What I haven't seen you overtly mention rpietila is market psychology. 

My guess is ~$800 next couple months, test ATH soon after, ~$6000 by Winter.  Would be interested to hear your thoughts on the potential of this occurring.

- Thank you.
- I think we are headed up, after a short breather. But this is just the most likely scenario. It's like the weatherman says "rain" but it only rains in 70% accuracy or so and can never be otherwise.
- There is no inching up; once we start moving, that's it. See weekly Parabolic SAR in Stamp, 2y.
- There is no cause for concern whatever happens. Crypto is either the next big thing or it isn't, and short term price movements do not change this reality.
- I currently think that the new top is reached in August-October, with the old ATH beaten only 3-5 weeks before.
- I don't pretend having a crystal ball.
- July 1 prediction was mathematically derived from the similarities in the current situation and the one in late 2011. If we would follow that lead strictly, now would be a 12-month period of price stagnation, but I do not believe such is going to happen.
- I am lazy to write about psychology because it needs many words, that does not however mean that I were totally ignorant about it.
- Your prediction of slow growth is not compatible with market psychology. Once we clear the ATH, there is nothing stopping us. 6000 is conservative (for an intraday high).

[wachtwoord]

- July 1 prediction was mathematically derived from the similarities in the current situation and the one in late 2011. If we would follow that lead strictly, now would be a 12-month period of price stagnation, but I do not believe such is going to happen.

Where are you getting the twelve months from?

[rpietila]

- July 1 prediction was mathematically derived from the similarities in the current situation and the one in late 2011. If we would follow that lead strictly, now would be a 12-month period of price stagnation, but I do not believe such is going to happen.

Where are you getting the twelve months from?

With Bitcoin, going from $7 to $13 in 12 months is equal to stagnation. With all the other investments, that would be stellar performance of course

[wachtwoord]

- July 1 prediction was mathematically derived from the similarities in the current situation and the one in late 2011. If we would follow that lead strictly, now would be a 12-month period of price stagnation, but I do not believe such is going to happen.

Where are you getting the twelve months from?

With Bitcoin, going from $7 to $13 in 12 months is equal to stagnation. With all the other investments, that would be stellar performance of course

Ah, so you're talking about Bitcoin going up by $50 monthly for the next 12 months as stagnation 

Anyway, last cycle didn't have twelve month slow rise so we'll see.