rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[2017orso]

- Thank you.
- I think we are headed up, after a short breather. But this is just the most likely scenario. It's like the weatherman says "rain" but it only rains in 70% accuracy or so and can never be otherwise.
- There is no inching up; once we start moving, that's it. See weekly Parabolic SAR in Stamp, 2y.
- There is no cause for concern whatever happens. Crypto is either the next big thing or it isn't, and short term price movements do not change this reality.
- I currently think that the new top is reached in August-October, with the old ATH beaten only 3-5 weeks before.
- I don't pretend having a crystal ball.
- July 1 prediction was mathematically derived from the similarities in the current situation and the one in late 2011. If we would follow that lead strictly, now would be a 12-month period of price stagnation, but I do not believe such is going to happen.
- I am lazy to write about psychology because it needs many words, that does not however mean that I were totally ignorant about it.
- Your prediction of slow growth is not compatible with market psychology. Once we clear the ATH, there is nothing stopping us. 6000 is conservative (for an intraday high).

Would it be considered slow growth if we were to stay within $600-$800 for a couple months, and then burst through ATH and beyond?

You think the next top will be higher then $6000?

I Don't assume you are ignorant of much of anything, especially not market psych, just haven't heard you discuss it, can understand why. 

You non-existent crystall ball is much better then mine or most anyone else's. 

[1714465529]

1714465529

[dnaleor]

I should post more here than in the "wall observer BTC/USD" thread...

This is what I'm guessing will happen:
We will go to 800 USD in the next 10 days. We will stay there for a few days (not more than a week) and after that an attempt to break ATH.
This (failed) attemp will be folowed by a small correction towards 1000 USD and after that... Lift off to da m00n* !!!

*m00n defined in a range between 4000 and 9000 USD

[ErisDiscordia]

Just as in a cumbersome and cluttered SWIFT et al space, the public is not necessarily educated on the bank account numbers of institutions, it can also very well be the case that in a fast-pace bitcoin denominated financial future, with many high-value transactions, the public is not necessarily privy to the addresses of certain institutions.  While it will be easier to investigate and track, it is not necessarily inherently more transparent, especially as side-chains or the like are introduced.  In fact, the potential for transparency can allow for corporate maneuvering through address movement.  Think transaction bluffing, ghost subsidiaries and other high-level tactics which would render the landscape more opaque.

The nice thing about crypto is that it is (probably) able to offer the whole range off possibilities from total transparency to total anonymity.

It is possible to set up the local tax collection agency with tagged addresses so that everyone can see how much tax money is arriving. The agency, being in possession of the keys to that address, can then choose to convert a part of the balance to an anonymous coin but this would be highly visible, watched and raise lots of questions.

Actually, why don't we skip that part and just program the tax collection agencies as digital entities and code total transparency into them?

Actually, why don't we skip that part, too and abolish tax collection agencies?

[zimmah]

But the dot-coms were companies not the technology. The success of the internet itself never faltered, it's just that people scrambled to speculate on companies to capitalise on it, and some terrible or highly risky companies got too much money. It's easier to say Bitcoin itself will succeed than it is to say that blockchain.info or coinbase will be the next google. There's also another dimension to crypto in that there can be an alt-coin bubble in parallel.

So, with the dot-com bubble, pets.com is often used an example of the crash. The pets.com of crypto could be a company (e.g. gox), or it could be an alt coin (e.g. litecoin), but it's not crypto itself. Just as HTTP and SMTP (email) went from strength to strength, so will crypto.  

On the otherhand there is a possibility that another crypto overtakes Bitcoin, but this won't happen overnight, and any Bitcoin holders would have plenty of time to diversify towards the alternative before suffering any real loss.

Emphasized for emphasis.

They will likely speak of a "crypto bubble" sometime soon, emphasizing the failure of all other cryptos (and implying a failure of bitcoin as well, most likely just after a peak during a bear market). But indeed bitcoin will be like the internet. It will continue and it won't care what happens around it. And they will surely make reference to the dot com bubble. Bad news sells, good news does not.

The Bitcoin 'bubble' has already done the media cycle at least twice, sentiment is starting to change, it's no longer treated as a fad so much. Other crytpos aren't really even on the media radar tbh.

And with the millions upon millions invested in bitcoin I doubt anyone will seriously even think about switching to a different crypto. It's not as easy as pressing "delete myspace account" and "welcome to facebook".

Well i think it is as easy, I can with a single click trade all my Bitcoins for any other alt currency on an exchange instantly. What is important is that it would take a catastrophic event to cause a critical mass of people to do this in the same time frameframe, and to the same alt coin. It's possible, just really unlikely.

sure, you can change, but there's a lot of risk and loss of money involved.

Also, what about all the VCs, Wall street, and Merchant adoption. Will they follow you to your new beloved altcoin?

That's what i mean.

Facebook and myspace work well on their own (altough facebook has integration with many other websites nowadays, but back then it did not).

You can't just swap to an altcoin and expect merchants to accept it. What use is an altcoin with a 'better sourcecode' if you can't spend it anywhere?

That's why bitcoin will stay.

It's like, people switched from MySpace to facebook, but they still use HTTP to get there. They switched from hotmail to gmail, but they still use SMTP. Etc.

Since bitcoin has it's own protocol, that is by design not compatible with altcoins (as that would be like creating more than 21 million coins). Either the whole protocol itself will fail, or bitcoin will succeed, both as a protocol as well as a currency.

What is most likely to happen?

[shields]

I agree with you, Bitcoin is the most likely to succeed, that's why I said a catastrophic event would have to occur. If Bitcoin was fundamentally broken tomorrow in an irreparable way what would happen? Would bitcoin companies etc close down? or would they switch to an altcoin that was resistant to whatever killed bitcoin?

EDIT: obviously part of replacement by another coin would be that other coin becoming the most popular coin, in this case bitpay, coindase etc would provide merchant services for the coin. Merchants themselves would not have to do anything, their payment processors would do the switch.

[cAPSLOCK]

sure, you can change, but there's a lot of risk and loss of money involved.

Also, what about all the VCs, Wall street, and Merchant adoption. Will they follow you to your new beloved altcoin?

That's what i mean.

Facebook and myspace work well on their own (altough facebook has integration with many other websites nowadays, but back then it did not).

You can't just swap to an altcoin and expect merchants to accept it. What use is an altcoin with a 'better sourcecode' if you can't spend it anywhere?

That's why bitcoin will stay.

It's like, people switched from MySpace to facebook, but they still use HTTP to get there. They switched from hotmail to gmail, but they still use SMTP. Etc.

Since bitcoin has it's own protocol, that is by design not compatible with altcoins (as that would be like creating more than 21 million coins). Either the whole protocol itself will fail, or bitcoin will succeed, both as a protocol as well as a currency.

What is most likely to happen?

When it comes to a coin as currency nothing touches Bitcoin yet, And in my opinion nothing is really likely to.  Network effect be praised, As you say it is Bitcoin's fate to succeed or fail.  It is Bitcoin's game to win.

That said, I personally see a relationship with bitcoin and at least one other coin(s) which will offer features bitcoin should not have to.  Privacy for one.  In fact I think bitcoin NEEDS a symbiotic relationship with coins as well as services which compliment it and even facilitate it's dominance in the areas where it is designed to work.

The really successful altcoin will be the one that offers features bitcoin never can.  It will actually protect bitcoin's dominance.

[rpietila]

Would it be considered slow growth if we were to stay within $600-$800 for a couple months, and then burst through ATH and beyond?

You think the next top will be higher then $6000?

Staying in 600-800 for some time is a possibility, but I give a higher probability to a rather short time (<2 months) than a longer one.

Going higher than 6000 is the more likely, the longer it takes for the boom to start.

- I don't pretend having a crystal ball.

You non-existent crystall ball is much better then mine or most anyone else's. 

I also don't pretend having a castle..

[rpietila]

Speaking of castles, have you posted anywhere on the 2 forums about the Super Node meeting last week?

Not much. I let others do it.

Btw why is it that you repeatedly insult me, and when banned, lay low for a couple of months, and then sneak back without apologizing? That's not cool and I don't advice trying it with the castle.

[phatsphere]

I think it's still very likely that it goes down once again to 550-570. 800 would be the next step, that's fine, but on the other hand we have summer and I imagine major investment decisions are probably delayed until Sept/Oct once everyone is back from taking sunbaths.

[windjc]

Speaking of castles, have you posted anywhere on the 2 forums about the Super Node meeting last week?

Not much. I let others do it.

Btw why is it that you repeatedly insult me, and when banned, lay low for a couple of months, and then sneak back without apologizing? That's not cool and I don't advice trying it with the castle.

Banned? I was never banned. What are you talking about?

I won't apologize for calling you out on some of your B.S.

Having said that, I have always encouraged you regarding your bitcoin castle. Unlike you, apparently, I don't hold grudges, I simply call it as I see it. And I would never try to "sneak" into Estonia. lol.  

If the time comes that I want to visit the estate, you'll be happy to let me in. Even if you don't believe it right now.

 

OK whatever. Don't visit my thread again. Insulting my loved ones is like cognac, it becomes more costly when time passes. And I don't believe you will get to sneak into my castle except with a different nick, of course. And that would be not cool.

Others, enjoy the pictures!

I never insulted your loved ones. What are you talking about?

All I was saying, is that one day you will be happy to have me at your castle - windjc.  You will consider me a friend, although you don't believe it. 

[holomen]

By the  Law of conservation of energy, it would be more wise to waste the Energy and Time on more serious talks.

Those who don't understand their mistakes, will not recognize their faults. And are far from apologizing.

Rp, what's your plan with the Malla, will it ever be a place for less than BTC1000's+ supernodes?

As a Fusion of different age and ability personal generations could spark some new and exciting ventures in the space.

[rpietila]

Rp, what's your plan with the Malla, will it ever be a place for less than BTC1000's+ supernodes?

I'd say if you hold more than BTC100, the place might interest you. For lesser holdings, you should concentrate on building a bigger balance first.

When bitcoin goes up, there will be more castles and the cutoff grade to be part of one (also the supernode threshold) will go down in btc terms.

[rpietila]

Speaking of castles, have you posted anywhere on the 2 forums about the Super Node meeting last week?

Not much. I let others do it.

Btw why is it that you repeatedly insult me, and when banned, lay low for a couple of months, and then sneak back without apologizing? That's not cool and I don't advice trying it with the castle.

Banned? I was never banned. What are you talking about?

I won't apologize for calling you out on some of your B.S.

Having said that, I have always encouraged you regarding your bitcoin castle. Unlike you, apparently, I don't hold grudges, I simply call it as I see it. And I would never try to "sneak" into Estonia. lol.  

If the time comes that I want to visit the estate, you'll be happy to let me in. Even if you don't believe it right now.

 

OK whatever. Don't visit my thread again. Insulting my loved ones is like cognac, it becomes more costly when time passes. And I don't believe you will get to sneak into my castle except with a different nick, of course. And that would be not cool.

Others, enjoy the pictures!

I never insulted your loved ones. What are you talking about?

All I was saying, is that one day you will be happy to have me at your castle - windjc.  You will consider me a friend, although you don't believe it.  

If you don't apologize, you will not enter my castle. We are talking about manners here, not political expediency.

We will see. If the day happens, it will be at least a few years down the road. That's like a couple of centuries in bitcoin time.

I can see that you believe money trumps manners. I am happy to teach you otherwise (while feeling sorry that you've had the wrong notion for such a long time).

If the readers want to know other ways to be banned; not paying your bill, and scamming are those.

Was in no way referring to money. Or power. Or possessions. Just humanity.

If your humanity forbids apologizing when you have wronged another human, why do you even desire to visit the castle? It will be a painful experience for you to find other people in harmony with each other - such a contrast to what your actions testify of your inner reality!

[zimmah]

Speaking of castles, have you posted anywhere on the 2 forums about the Super Node meeting last week?

Not much. I let others do it.

Btw why is it that you repeatedly insult me, and when banned, lay low for a couple of months, and then sneak back without apologizing? That's not cool and I don't advice trying it with the castle.

Banned? I was never banned. What are you talking about?

I won't apologize for calling you out on some of your B.S.

Having said that, I have always encouraged you regarding your bitcoin castle. Unlike you, apparently, I don't hold grudges, I simply call it as I see it. And I would never try to "sneak" into Estonia. lol.  

If the time comes that I want to visit the estate, you'll be happy to let me in. Even if you don't believe it right now.

 

OK whatever. Don't visit my thread again. Insulting my loved ones is like cognac, it becomes more costly when time passes. And I don't believe you will get to sneak into my castle except with a different nick, of course. And that would be not cool.

Others, enjoy the pictures!

I never insulted your loved ones. What are you talking about?

All I was saying, is that one day you will be happy to have me at your castle - windjc.  You will consider me a friend, although you don't believe it.  

If you don't apologize, you will not enter my castle. We are talking about manners here, not political expediency.

We will see. If the day happens, it will be at least a few years down the road. That's like a couple of centuries in bitcoin time.

I can see that you believe money trumps manners. I am happy to teach you otherwise (while feeling sorry that you've had the wrong notion for such a long time).

If the readers want to know other ways to be banned; not paying your bill, and scamming are those.

Was in no way referring to money. Or power. Or possessions. Just humanity.

If your humanity forbids apologizing when you have wronged another human, why do you even desire to visit the castle? It will be a painful experience for you to find other people in harmony with each other - such a contrast to what your actions testify of your inner reality!

That's some quality real life drama over there haha.

But I agree, no matter how rich you are or feel, you gotta have some manners.

It's just not cool being a rich jerk, or a poor jerk. Or a middle class jerk. Whatever. Be nice.

[2017orso]

- I don't pretend having a crystal ball.

You non-existent crystall ball is much better then mine or most anyone else's. 

I also don't pretend having a castle..
[/quote]

So you do actually have a crystal ball or you don't actually have a castle?...or did you take offence to something I said which wasn't meant as such

Anyways I'll say again what I've said before, I respect you and what you've done for this community over the years regardless where your mind goes to after its beginnings.

[BitChick]

Speaking of castles, have you posted anywhere on the 2 forums about the Super Node meeting last week?

Not much. I let others do it.

Btw why is it that you repeatedly insult me, and when banned, lay low for a couple of months, and then sneak back without apologizing? That's not cool and I don't advice trying it with the castle.

Banned? I was never banned. What are you talking about?

I won't apologize for calling you out on some of your B.S.

Having said that, I have always encouraged you regarding your bitcoin castle. Unlike you, apparently, I don't hold grudges, I simply call it as I see it. And I would never try to "sneak" into Estonia. lol.  

If the time comes that I want to visit the estate, you'll be happy to let me in. Even if you don't believe it right now.

 

OK whatever. Don't visit my thread again. Insulting my loved ones is like cognac, it becomes more costly when time passes. And I don't believe you will get to sneak into my castle except with a different nick, of course. And that would be not cool.

Others, enjoy the pictures!

I never insulted your loved ones. What are you talking about?

All I was saying, is that one day you will be happy to have me at your castle - windjc.  You will consider me a friend, although you don't believe it.  

If you don't apologize, you will not enter my castle. We are talking about manners here, not political expediency.

We will see. If the day happens, it will be at least a few years down the road. That's like a couple of centuries in bitcoin time.

I can see that you believe money trumps manners. I am happy to teach you otherwise (while feeling sorry that you've had the wrong notion for such a long time).

If the readers want to know other ways to be banned; not paying your bill, and scamming are those.

Was in no way referring to money. Or power. Or possessions. Just humanity.

If your humanity forbids apologizing when you have wronged another human, why do you even desire to visit the castle? It will be a painful experience for you to find other people in harmony with each other - such a contrast to what your actions testify of your inner reality!

That's some quality real life drama over there haha.

But I agree, no matter how rich you are or feel, you gotta have some manners.

It's just not cool being a rich jerk, or a poor jerk. Or a middle class jerk. Whatever. Be nice.

Why does part of me want to see a reality TV show of windjc visiting Risto at his castle?    Maybe I need to question some impure motives within myself for that!

All in all, I think Bitcoin users are an interesting bunch.  We all come from so many different backgrounds.  Having a relative stay with us from New Zealand last week, and seeing how completely annoyed she was at our bluntness and how opinionated we were kind of opened my eyes to how as Americans we can really tick others off without really meaning too.  Saying what we want without any filters, or perhaps what other call "respect" is perhaps just allowed a bit more in our culture.  It is often in good fun.  We like a good debate and enjoy the banter.  It isn't necessarily something that calls for a duel.  That said, I am still not sure who is right or wrong.  Perhaps we are obnoxious and other Europeans are more civilized? 

[jook]

All of the above arguments could also be applied to dot-coms when they were in their early stages. I'm sure early adopters were as ecstatic as BTC early adopters. So it must not be a surprise when bubble crashes sooner or later, before cryptocurrencies become as usual as Internet.

But the dot-coms were companies not the technology. The success of the internet itself never faltered, it's just that people scrambled to speculate on companies to capitalise on it, and some terrible or highly risky companies got too much money. It's easier to say Bitcoin itself will succeed than it is to say that blockchain.info or coinbase will be the next google. [...]

The dot-com-comparison is very interesting as it exposes a totally unique property of Bitcoin. It has always been possible to invest into companies that utilize a new technology in some way, but this is the first time ever that you can invest into the technology itself. This doesn't necessarily make Bitcoin a good investment, the decision is still up to anyone, but IF you expect mainstream success of this technology, it's extremely easy and safe to take part in it.

Imagine you were back in the 90s, the WWW is starting to gain traction, you're convinced of its golden future, and you are able to buy shares of the HTTP. You don't even need a brokerage account or anything, you can do it in any amount, by cash, anonymously, on the street. That's pretty amazing.

People are arguing that only crypto-currency as a concept can be considered analog to HTTP, not the concrete Bitcoin implementation, which is more similar to things like Facebook. But what has survived the dot-com-bubble is not a multitude of viewable-content transfer-protocols, but HTTP. Complementary blockchain-based protocols for special applications will probably exist, too, like there are protocols for video streaming, filesharing and so on, but the network effect is too strong for payment-altcoins.

Every time I reflect about the basics I am more convinced that mainstream adoption of Bitcoin is unavoidable. Printed-page-style information has been transferred by third parties in a slow and cumbersome way for ages until the Web took over in an instant (historically seen). The Bitcoin protocol opens a similar evolutionary path for money transfers. We're still at an early stage and I'm sure the next decade or so will become increasingly interesting.

[BTCtrader71]

we have summer and I imagine major investment decisions are probably delayed until Sept/Oct once everyone is back from taking sunbaths.

Where do you live, France??? Stateside investors only take two weeks off in August. If that. Haven't you seen the famous Cadillac commercial?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGJSI48gkFc

(btw, Bill Maher did a great parody of that commercial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjqIgeFR6Ds )

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Imagine you were back in the 90s, the WWW is starting to gain traction, you're convinced of its golden future, and you are able to buy shares of the HTTP. You don't even need a brokerage account or anything, you can do it in any amount, by cash, anonymously, on the street. That's pretty amazing.

Great point. Makes for a good sales pitch.

[Its About Sharing]

Imagine you were back in the 90s, the WWW is starting to gain traction, you're convinced of its golden future, and you are able to buy shares of the HTTP. You don't even need a brokerage account or anything, you can do it in any amount, by cash, anonymously, on the street. That's pretty amazing.

Great point. Makes for a good sales pitch.

I love how these types of simplistic, short sighted, narrow, etc. comments (following):

All of the above arguments could also be applied to dot-coms when they were in their early stages. I'm sure early adopters were as ecstatic as BTC early adopters. So it must not be a surprise when bubble crashes sooner or later, before cryptocurrencies become as usual as Internet.

Bring out TRUTH that not only squashes the OP's comment but does so in a multi-faceted way.
Not only do we now see the diamond that is Bitcoin (and cryptocurrency like tech) but we get to see more of her facets thanks to the bright comments shared here.

Its About Sharing and thanks for doing so