rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[TERA]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

Any theories on why such a crazy bounce occurred? There are no 55% surges out of capitulation in the history of bitcoin. And look at the stamp order book. Wow!

[cosmofly]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

Any theories on why such a crazy bounce occurred? There are no 55% surges out of capitulation in the history of bitcoin. And look at the stamp order book. Wow!

complete Chinese market manipulation, i've been observing the chinese volumes and comparing it to the patterns we see now and we've seen in the past 2 months, very unnatural movements. I also explained it here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=488485.0

my level of respect of rpietila really increased today, i'm glad he's a true realist rather than just going "to the moon" like everyone else is.

[porcupine87]

Ok, here a little paint. There are a quite a few similarities. I am well informed about all events since october. Who knows about the events from april to september?

[chessnut]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

it was a decisive point. it is touching some very important short term averages. If it cant pass through those effortlessly, then the panic is not resolved.

when the curve goes exponential and stalls like that at resistance, it is left very weak....

[GreekGeek]

I have a feeling I would like to share with you guys
it is not purely TA analysis but more of a Market Dynamics Analysis


What if this last rally/bubble (peak @ ~1200) was (partly) caused by Mtgox's long term liquidity problems
(the other reason being the Chinese buying like mad)  

I know for a fact that me and my friends wanted to get some money out from Gox after the April bubble
but the delays were very very long so we bought back and moved to Stamp and hedl because the price was going up
So I presume many (I mean MANY) people did the same thing,
resulting in the price going up in Gox and the rest of exchanges followed  


The result of the above (moving from Gox + Chinese madness) was the December spike


My Question to you guys is
What would the price have been if Gox had no liquidity problems

I know this purely theoretical/speculative but it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the matter
 





  




 

[creekbore]

Ok, here a little paint. There are a quite a few similarities. I am well informed about all events since october. Who knows about the events from april to september?

...snip..

The rise in March would correlate with a lot of media stories about both SR and Bitcoin.  After 266 there was a lot of fear, a few merchant adoptions, a lot of Gox-hate...I seem to remember it was a very dull period (esp compared to the last few weeks) but in hindsight it was exactly what was needed. 

My fear is that the next few weeks/months will bring the crypto eco-system into the glare of the MSM and I'm not sure all of the current participants will survive the exposure.

[chessnut]

This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2

The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.

[mmitech]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

just make sure to not ignore the 1d chart, indicators are showing that there will be a crossover in a couple of days with high volume it could be a nice reverse, I made a fine profit from yesterday and I am not risking it for few % ...

we were in a long bear market, this could turn out to a long bull market in few days, of course there will be waves, allot of them, but I am not risking this one...it just not worth it...

[seleme]

This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2

The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.

The fact that you change your mind each half an hour is good indicator you should stay away from trading for few days 

[chessnut]

This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2

The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.

The fact that you change your mind each half an hour is good indicator you should stay away from trading for few days 

I changed my mind 24hours ago, and I have only been paying attention today, hoping to break 630, but not expeting it. best to be flexible at critical levels!

[MatTheCat]

This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2

The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.

Media reports are number 1 contrarian indicator!

[creekbore]

This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2

The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.

This is the same bunch of clowns that last week that an Australian company would be setting up the world's first BTC bank by the end of the year (for those who missed it Neo & Bee opened yesterday).  Dire, uninformed dross...if it were in print, i wouldn't wrap my chips in it.

[chessnut]

Media reports are number 1 contrarian indicator!

my favourite.... the only time you know when you are right is when you know everyone else is wrong.

[MrHindsight]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

just make sure to not ignore the 1d chart...
...this could turn out to a long bull market in few days

Same happened on June 19th 2013, where the drop from $105 to $66 (daily average) started. Don't place your bets on a single indicator.

[TERA]

The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

just make sure to not ignore the 1d chart...
...this could turn out to a long bull market in few days

Same happened on June 19th 2013, where the drop from $105 to $66 (daily average) started. Don't place your bets on a single indicator.

What? That rise took 8 days. This took less than one day.

[rema]

Congratulation for the mansion, its the really fine place, hope I will visit it, really near place I live

[ErisDiscordia]

Any theories on why such a crazy bounce occurred? There are no 55% surges out of capitulation in the history of bitcoin. And look at the stamp order book. Wow!

My non-TA perspective: the last bear market in May - June 2013 occurred in an environment of relative quiet and was rather dull. Less people were paying close attention (myself included as it was spring/summer and I was traveling instead of sitting at home, staring at charts) so the capitulation event was under less intense scrutiny. Nonetheless when I look at the daily chart the crossing of 1day EMA happened rather quickly after the bottom.

In contrast, this bear market had a lot of media exposure with gox related problems and a lot of well informed people actively looking for the bottom. Gox closing down and the huge sell-off with a bounce from 400 made a lot of those people who are watching this closely think that the bottom has been found. They have been ready to buy for some time now but have waited for some sort of closure on the Gox situation. Closure has been provided more or less-ish so the first salvo of the fiat cannons has been enormous, because it has presumably been building up for some time.

[MatTheCat]

What? That rise took 8 days. This took less than one day.

Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?

I have buy-ins in low $500s and I am short since just recently $575 (after suffering a little bit of slippage transferring BTC around). What sort of a retraction would you personally be looking at here? Would you consider the possibility that the 'recovery' has occurred so sharply, that it may actually represent a dramatic counter trend reaction. Afterall, it could be argued that we have fallen short of the last crest at $640, and looking at the longer term chart and forgetting the astronomical nominal values involved, it could be argued we are staying right on track for lower lows:













I am not saying that I necessarily subscribe to this viewpoint at this point in time, but this recovery has been insane and very much in keeping with the sharp price spikes consistent with bear market counter trend rallies. Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?

[ErisDiscordia]

Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?

This could very well be the case. But personally I am also fooled by the relief and euphoria and find it likely that a bottom has been found.

[TERA]

What? That rise took 8 days. This took less than one day.

Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?

I have buy-ins in low $500s and I am short since just recently $575 (after suffering a little bit of slippage transferring BTC around). What sort of a retraction would you personally be looking at here? Would you consider the possibility that the 'recovery' has occurred so sharply, that it may actually represent a dramatic counter trend reaction. Afterall, it could be argued that we have fallen short of the last crest at $640, and looking at the longer term chart and forgetting the astronomical nominal values involved, it could be argued we are staying right on track for lower lows:











I am not saying that I necessarily subscribe to this viewpoint at this point in time, but this recovery has been insane and very much in keeping with the sharp price spikes consistent with bear market counter trend rallies. Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?

Here's the evidence I have so far that 400 was (probably) bottom:
1. The VOLUME: Bitstamp did 118K BTC of volume in a day. This type of volume hasn't been seen since the bottom in December. Huobi also did a record volume of >300K but Huobi might be irrelevant.
2. The trends support this being possible bottom: including the horizontal support at 380 and the long term logarithmic support somewhere between 300 and 500 (each of us have a different opinion about where this trend is).
3. The order book: The bitstamp order book now looks like a monster of giant continuous bidwalls against a tiny ask. Everything is consistent and there are no more 'cliffs' for the price to fall off of. The amount of fiat on there increased from 8M to 22M (an ATH) overnight.
4. The hammer candle on the daily chart.
5. The recovery right back above the 530 low that took two weeks to break.
6. The amount of overextended short interest that was on bitfinex.
7. The weekly chart pattern consistency with all previous bitcoin rallies (except 2011 bubble)