[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[nullius]

For someone that is usually so pragmatic

This is new.  Usually, I am accused of being an idealistic dreamer. ;-)

...I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path.

I’m not sure why you are arguing about the media polls with me, when your own statement was that Trump was an underdog in the betting markets.

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

A part of my point was that if PN7’s numbers are correct (probably—haven’t checked—don’t really care), Trump is less of an underdog now than he was in 2016.  And—guess who became U.S. president in 2016.

This is probably not the best time to be getting into an even money bet for Trump to win. The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

A deeper point is that this is a plebiscite on Trump:

How do you feel about Trump?

• ☐ I LOVE TRUMP!!! 🤩
• ☐ I HATE TRUMP!!! 😡

That is not very good for Biden, in and of itself.

Trump has fans.  A large number of Americans perceive him as an awe-inspiring hero.  I think that that’s ridiculous; but it is an objective fact that large numbers of people see him that way.

Trump has haters.  A large number of Americans perceive him as the devil.  I think that that’s also ridiculous; but...

Does anybody perceive Biden as a hero?  I mean, seriously.  LOL.

Does anybody perceive Biden, personally, as the devil?  Of course, there are many Americans who see the Democratic Party as the devil.  (Same as for the Republican Party.)  But the Democratic Party is not Biden.  A political party does not move people as personality does—not in either direction.

Objectively, the candidates are not so different.  The followers of Pepsi-Lenin (D) scream that Coke-Kerensky (R) is a “right-wing extremist”, and the followers of Coke-Kerensky (R) scream that Pepsi-Lenin (D) has betrayed the revolution.  The practical difference between them is negligible.  But that is not how votaries voters perceive it; and the above sums up how most Americans are evaluating their choice for this vote.

biden anti-trump betters

Well said.

All of this is consistent with my point:  Many Americans were disillusioned—literally, they stopped seeing the illusion of importance in the vote.  Trump got them re-engaged with the system.  Good job!

[1714136578]

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[1714136578]

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[1714136578]

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[Gyfts]

National polling was accurate, but some of the state polling wasn't even close. Wisconsin and Michigan were off by a sizeable amount. There's no doubt he's down in the polls, but I don't think it's impossible for Trump to trip towards the finish line like he did in 2016.

Due to huge numbers of early voting it's getting increasingly unlikely with every day. For example if FBI announced an investigation into whatever Fox News is accusing Biden of, it would be much less likely to have the same kind of impact like Hillary's e-mails did because so many have already voted.

You are probably right, but I still give Trump about a 15% chance of victory. Of course, a 15% chance in politics pretty much means this election is a wrap.

I still think we'll see a couple states be a bit closer than what the polls are showing. But since we're a week out, and the polls have indicated the gap is not closing, my final prediction is that Biden wins the electoral college.

Can't win them all, oh well. 

[suchmoon]

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations.

I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

This was in response to:

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

[nullius]

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

What censorship?  Before I deleted your post, I appended it to the end of mine with an appropriate note:

I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

Please read the local rules before posting.

Local Rules:  Effective immediately, suchmoon is categorically banned from all of my self-moderated threads (unless I make an accusation against her, in which she will be accorded a fair right of reply).  The post to which I replied has the same subject matter, i.e. offering a wager to theymos.  It has not been deleted; therefore, I draw the obvious inference.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

Per its OP, that whole thread only got started because you deleted my reply to eddie13’s offer to theymos.  You didn’t delete that—nor did you delete some other talk about wagering.  The only reasonable explanation is that you deleted my post out of petty personal dislike for its author.

And now you whine because I have stated upfront that you are categorically banned from my self-mod threads^*?  

* Except if I were to bring an accusation against you; per what I stated, the accused shall always have a fair right of reply in my self-moderated threads.

<snip>

This was in response to:

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

Among other things, hypocrisy is untrustworthy.

[nutildah]

Damn sensor ships... where are the social media regulations that Trump promised. I tried betting on a Trump win and:

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations.

I'm in... and since I'm gonna lose anyway I went ahead and donated the money already. Thanks for playing!

This was in response to:

If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times.

Maybe I'm not trustworthy enough. Anyway, I lost fair and square, so sad.

That is very funny -- not often do you see $140 jokes being made around here.

I don't have the confidence you do that Trump has already lost. Too shattered since last time. If we learned anything from 2016, its that nobody really knows what the fuck is going on.

[eddie13]

ACLU?
Yuck..

[suchmoon]

ACLU?
Yuck..

Well, it's actually your bet with theymos, I'm just an intruder. If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it, just watch out for those sensor ships and don't say anything unpleasant about the nutcase OP.

I don't do "real" betting. I'd do a modified bet (with you and/or eddie13 and/or other reputable forum members) where the loser has to donate 0.01 BTC to a charity of his choice.

[nullius]

ACLU?
Yuck..

theymos had suggested the NCLA to me.  I think that was the target of suchmoon’s misguided grandstanding.

Upon a brief review of the NCLA’s website, three things jumped out at me:

• The NCLA’s endorsement of Amy Coney Barrett’s record of quashing administrative law tyranny.
• The NCLA’s defence of Bitcoiners against privacy violations by the IRS.
• Gun rights!

Please let me know what you think.

just watch out for those sensor ships and don't say anything unpleasant about the nutcase OP.

Quoted for the next time somebody complains about your own self-mod actions.  I notice that you consistently ban quite a list of users from your threads.  My name was not on the list for the thread where I posted, or any previous list of yours that I have seen.  You were banned by name in the OP’s local rules of the thread where you posted.  Stop whining like such a lunatic.

[eddie13]

If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..
Haven't decided how to phrase a reply of "no thanks" to that yet..

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..

[nutildah]

If you wanna play and donate to something else you should definitely do it

The NRA is always looking for donations...

just watch out for those sensor ships

Very sensor, much ship.



Its more sensor than ship though.

[nullius]

I'm not much for charity, no matter how well it presents itself..

Nor am I.  (Largely because nonprofit organizations are usually corrupt as hell.)

The way I see it:  If I were to bet against theymos and lose, then he could donate the money if he wants.  Now, if I lose, I will instead donate to something suggested by him, and acceptable to me; whereas if I win, he will donate to something that I probably do not disagree with.

Either way, it is much better than risking that I may give my money to a liberal!

I'm not wealthy enough to be in a giving position really..

Nor am I.  It is an open secret that I’m poor.  0.01 BTC is significant to me—I can afford to risk it, but barely so.  I wouldn’t want to make a fuss about it.  Moreover, there is no practical difference between sending the money to theymos, and sending it to the NCLA:  Either way, I am out 0.01 BTC if Trump loses.

Haven't decided how to phrase a reply of "no thanks" to that yet..

Awww.  Spoilsport.  :-(

[suchmoon]

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..

Seems perfectly fine to me but I'm not setting the rules over there. It's a bit funny though how you first jumped on it but now... losing confidence?

Chant a few MAGAs, get your game back on!

Its more sensor than ship though.

Too sophisticated. Self-mod retaliation is more like this:

[eddie13]

The NRA

Life member since I was about 11 or 12

If anything, I'd only do it for a "charity" I already give to, to help refinance MY pocket for things I already blow money towards..

Seems perfectly fine to me but I'm not setting the rules over there. It's a bit funny though how you first jumped on it but now... losing confidence?

Well.. I could be 100% certain it wouldn't benefit my Satoshi stash, couldn't I?

I look at these bets as a risk to benefit my wallet, not just a chance to lose a bunch of Satoshis "for a good cause"..

I have spent FAR too much of my life/time helping other people and not getting anywhere for it..
It's time to help ME..
Huge reason I'm taking an out of town gig, is to escape and focus on myself for a change.. My financial security and my future, instead of always spending my life away to help someone else..
Literally gave a bunch of my blood away today to make it happen, + piss, and took a dose of radiation straight to the heart..

Think I pass, hope I pass.. Have some hearing loss apparently, likely from bangsticks..

[Gyfts]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

After messing around with the electoral map, Biden quite literally has 270+ electoral votes before even factoring in swing stages. Take all the democratic states where Biden is leading largely and give them to him (including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), Biden wins.

Give Trump all of his red states, he still needs Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and one of the three rust belt states above to barely break 270. All these states are essentially toss ups. Some models have given Texas "lean R" to "toss up" but there is no way in hell Texas will vote for Biden so I'm not going to bother including that.

Out of the three rust belt states, Pennsylvania is probably the closest. Recent poll has Trump up by 2 points, but it's not a very accurate poll. Looking at Biden's RCP average, it dropped largely from what it was a month ago.

So, the ONLY outcome of Trump winning this election is taking all the swing states, and stealing Pennsylvania from Biden which is about the only state that is within the margin of error out of the three I mentioned above.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/mRL9Y

I have Biden at 279 electoral votes so far.

For a Trump victory, this is what I predict that electoral map would look like:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZmP8Q

[squatz1]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

After messing around with the electoral map, Biden quite literally has 270+ electoral votes before even factoring in swing stages. Take all the democratic states where Biden is leading largely and give them to him (including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), Biden wins.

Give Trump all of his red states, he still needs Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and one of the three rust belt states above to barely break 270. All these states are essentially toss ups. Some models have given Texas "lean R" to "toss up" but there is no way in hell Texas will vote for Biden so I'm not going to bother including that.

Out of the three rust belt states, Pennsylvania is probably the closest. Recent poll has Trump up by 2 points, but it's not a very accurate poll. Looking at Biden's RCP average, it dropped largely from what it was a month ago.

So, the ONLY outcome of Trump winning this election is taking all the swing states, and stealing Pennsylvania from Biden which is about the only state that is within the margin of error out of the three I mentioned above.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/mRL9Y

I have Biden at 279 electoral votes so far.

For a Trump victory, this is what I predict that electoral map would look like:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZmP8Q

If you play around with 538's little tool - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews - you're able to see that the map can get interesting pretty fast. Take this situation:

Trump winning Florida changes this map around very quickly. That immediately puts him at a 30 percent chance of winning. Then if Arizona comes in, we're at a 55-43 situation, with Biden still leading. But now we're in cointoss territory as Trump has defied the polls in some places, which means that turnout is probably pretty good for him and the GOP.

This isn't such an easy win for Biden like the media is making it out to be.

[Gyfts]

Only a few days out, so some concluding remarks on this election cycle in regards to the campaigns.

I'll start with Trump because he is obviously the extreme underdog.

If Trump loses:

I think his campaign was ran horribly. His last 1.5 weeks of campaigning was based on a Hunter Biden story which correctly points out that Hunter used his dad's last name to make bank across the globe. But, who cares? The media would never run with it, obviously, and Americans do not care enough to do research into the matter themselves. Other issues are more important. There's evidence that the polling gap closed in Trump's favor over the last couple weeks, so it was a devastating mistake to shift his campaign message away from Biden's extreme policies, and focus it on his son who isn't running. My personal view is that the Hunter Biden story pointed out that Biden is this typical Washington DC corrupt politician, but again, is some middle class family man going to think the same thing? Would they care? Meh.

COVID-19 obviously another reason why Trump loses. Joe Biden is the normal candidate and Americans, when faced with crisis, depend on someone who is "normal" for comfort. I don't really blame them. If all you are watching is CNN doom and gloom headlines, you will feel panicked. Trump also like a fucking dipshit ran his Twitter account into overdrive (this is my BIGGEST gripe with Trump, being a complete fool with his twitter account). He on numerous occasions would butt heads with Dr. Fauci who was the only doctor that Americans would feel comfortable with (for reasons I don't understand). On policy, Trump didn't do that bad. But do Americans *feel* safe with Trump in office? Probably not. And we know how this works, feelings over facts.


If Biden loses:

In my opinion, it's because of two reasons.

1.) Kamala Harris
2.) Splitting the lane with the moderates and the left.

You can get the strong sense, even if you're a liberal, that Kamala Harris is an extremely dishonest character. Realistically, had it not been for George Floyd, we would see Klobuchar as Biden's VP pick. This knee jerk reaction to select a black woman who has an extreme left history (GND, most liberal record in Senate, Medicare 4 all) would be Biden's biggest mistake. She was California's top cop, and now she is supposedly going to be a champion of the left and fight for police reform? Sure. Anyone can recognize she is an opportunist who say anything to get elected. She is going to be the U.S.'s president if Biden wins.

Second point, Joe Biden on policy needed to stick to the moderate lane and he didn't. Whether it's in regard to police reform, climate change, immigration/amnesty, he's chosen the extreme far left position across the board to capture the far left and moderate lane. Problem is, you really can't have both. Biden's suggestion that America and law enforcement are systemically racist is not a winning message. Advocating for trillions in government spending to make a miniscule impact on climate change while destroying the U.S. economy is not a winning plan. And paving the way for millions of illegals to become citizens just so you get more democratic voters not a logical way to solve illegal immigration. I've said it before -- on policy, Trump wins. On character, Biden wins by a landslide. I guess we'll see on Tuesday what Americans care more about but if the polling is any indication, we already know the answer.

What do you guys think about this?

[suchmoon]

What do you guys think about this?

Trump doesn't have policies. He's a useful tool for McConnell to rubber stamp judges and tax cuts but that could be done by any Republican president. Mexico is still not paying for the wall, China is still not paying the tariffs, and people seem to be catching on to the con.

Biden is about as vapid as a politician can get but that's where the pendulum swings when you gamble on a reality TV show host to run a country and the gamble plays out roughly how you would expect it to play out.

As for the stuff that you labeled "extreme far left" - which would be center-right in sane countries but I digress - unless Democrats win the Senate there will be very little of that. And perhaps not much even if they do win the Senate. Just like Trump couldn't deport all illegals, Biden won't make them all citizens. Big problems are hard to solve, who knew.

[eddie13]

Feeling like Trump will pull it off somehow no matter what the media says..

Feeling like Trump has a better chance of winning this one than 2016 when I was ecstatically astounded by the results and really expecting him to loose..

If not.. No reason to really worry about it for me..
Roll with the punches..

[nullius]

Trump also like a fucking dipshit ran his Twitter account into overdrive (this is my BIGGEST gripe with Trump, being a complete fool with his twitter account).

Say what?  Trump’s Presidential Tweets are his best feature!  I did indicate that I do not take him so seriously...

On character, Biden wins by a landslide.

Say what!?  Character?  The stereotypical sleazy career politician, the old-school crypto-banner and extreme Drug Warrior cum “civil liberties” darling who turns whichever way the wind blows, and selects this as his running-mate:

You can get the strong sense, even if you're a liberal, that Kamala Harris is an extremely dishonest character. Realistically, had it not been for George Floyd, we would see Klobuchar as Biden's VP pick. This knee jerk reaction to select a black woman who has an extreme left history (GND, most liberal record in Senate, Medicare 4 all) would be Biden's biggest mistake. She was California's top cop, and now she is supposedly going to be a champion of the left and fight for police reform? Sure. Anyone can recognize she is an opportunist who say anything to get elected. She is going to be the U.S.'s president if Biden wins.

On character, Biden loses by default!  He does not know what “character” is.

Trump is a cheap showman, but his TV-boss tomfoolery seems almost innocent compared to Biden’s smoothly polished professional lie-machine.

Feeling like Trump will pull it off somehow no matter what the media says..

Ah, you’re onto the trick!  The media will set a narrative that Trump is bound to lose.  They will do it one way or another, any way they can.  I don’t buy it.  Maybe he will lose—maybe not—it is simply political realism to recognize that just as in 2016, it is a very close call between the frenzy of Trump-lovers, and the frenzy of Trump-haters.

The outcome looks tantamount to a coin-flip, IMO.

As for the stuff that you labeled "extreme far left" - which would be center-right in sane countries but I digress -

Stereotypically simpleminded American know-it-all, living in a fantasy that saner peoples are all a bunch of far-left Socialists.

It is bad enough when American right-wingers pretend that everything outside their borders is practically the Soviet Union.  Worse when you do it approvingly.

FYI, the only reason why it sometimes comes off that way is that the Communist NATO-puppet^* régimes in e.g. Europe have passed extreme political censorship laws that criminalize any speech not passing Soviet-style litmus tests.  Thus for instance, Europeans are legally prohibited from having an honest discussion of, say, immigration policy.  Seriously:  In much of Europe, you can come under police investigation for engaging in Facebook discussions about the impact of immigration on your posterity (!).

The only reason why TPTB still tolerate the First Amendment in your country is that the insane American population is so extremely far to the left, dissent from the Marxist agenda is marginal and mostly irrelevant.  If that changes, expect for it to be piecewise dismantled similarly as your Second Amendment—with liberals cheering.  Indeed, that has already been a gradual process ongoing for decades—and there is currently a big push to accelerate it.  Free speech lovers, watch out.

* Yes, I could back that up—with a bird’s-eye view appetizer, not an historical main course, of headline quotes from Wesley Clark and his clique dictating the future of how Europeans shall run their countries.  However, (0) it is off-topic in a thread about the American reality-TV “election”, and (1) attempts to educate the ineducable are not worth my time.

[PrimeNumber7]

Only a few days out, so some concluding remarks on this election cycle in regards to the campaigns.

I'll start with Trump because he is obviously the extreme underdog.

If Trump loses:

I think his campaign was ran horribly. His last 1.5 weeks of campaigning was based on a Hunter Biden story which correctly points out that Hunter used his dad's last name to make bank across the globe. But, who cares? The media would never run with it,

There is some evidence that Joe Biden was personally profiting off his Hunter's deals. This means that Joe Biden formulated his positions (as a Senator), and US policy (as Vice President) based on money his family was receiving.

Joe Biden had been a senator for 40 years when he became Vice President. If Joe Biden had refused to be influenced by money his family was receiving over 40 years, Hunter's ability to make money off of his family name would be near zero. Over time, the Biden family would develop a reputation for either changing stances based on money received by his family, or not doing this.

I think the real scandal is the censorship of the story, and the media's refusal to report on it. Some have questioned if the coverage of this story (or more specifically, the lack thereof) is an indication that the media will become defacto state-media if Biden is elected.

If Biden loses:

In my opinion, it's because of two reasons.

1.) Kamala Harris
2.) Splitting the lane with the moderates and the left.

It appears that Biden made a deal with the devil (the far left wing of his party) once he got nominated. It appears that he is trying to avoid the same anger from Sanders' supporters when Bernie was denied the nomination in 2016.