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Author Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon  (Read 9541 times)
sirazimuth
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August 30, 2020, 01:39:10 PM
 #641

.... - thoughts and prayers.

How caring of you sm, that will surely help...

..... haven’t been able to get ahold of him..

Well I do hope he's ok. I kinda miss him actually. (in the same sense I miss the FE fella)

Suchmoons odds...etc

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August 31, 2020, 02:32:17 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2020, 02:45:07 PM by TwitchySeal
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 #642

Good example of why people who support Trump think the polls that don't look good for Trump are fake.





"NO INFORMATION about the sample"




"R or D"






"or anything else"
Quote
The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, party identification, race/ethnicity by gender, race/ethnicity by age, and race/ethnicity by education. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2019 March supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls. The weighting categories were as follows:

Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)
Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Gender (Male, Female)
Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Age (18-44, 45+)
Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Education (Some College or less, Bachelor and beyond)
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.17. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.


https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-08/topline-abc-ipsos-poll-aug30.pdf
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-republican-national-convention-2020


"I've been getting some really good polls, some over 50%, except one"


...etc

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

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August 31, 2020, 03:27:14 PM
 #643

I'm quite impressed that only 80% of Republicans approve of the RNC in the Ipsos poll. I wonder if the other 20% think it was too batshit or not batshit enough.

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August 31, 2020, 05:16:23 PM
 #644

I'm quite impressed that only 80% of Republicans approve of the RNC in the Ipsos poll. I wonder if the other 20% think it was too batshit or not batshit enough.

Going to assume that the 20% think it's too batshit given the fact that most of the speaking time was given to people with the Trump name. There are still many Republicans who back Trump reluctantly but still want to see some other prominent republicans speaking.

Could've put Ted Cruz, Lindsey Grahm, Marco Rubio, and so on to at least put some typical GOP names into the convention. The convention was WEIRD. Who the hell wants to listen to all of his children speak about him? They're not the best source of info, and I doubt they have much pull over votes in swing areas that are needed.

Little too batshit for me....




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August 31, 2020, 06:53:31 PM
 #645

Going to assume that the 20% think it's too batshit given the fact that most of the speaking time was given to people with the Trump name. There are still many Republicans who back Trump reluctantly but still want to see some other prominent republicans speaking.

Could've put Ted Cruz, Lindsey Grahm, Marco Rubio, and so on to at least put some typical GOP names into the convention. The convention was WEIRD. Who the hell wants to listen to all of his children speak about him? They're not the best source of info, and I doubt they have much pull over votes in swing areas that are needed.

Little too batshit for me....

I think I may have lost all sense of scale of this craziness over the last 4 years. Nothing seems too batshit to me about Trump. If he had Stormy Daniels at the RNC praising his mushroom I'd have been only mildly surprised. As for Lil' Marco et al... I think that despite their best efforts to get on Trump's wagon he still holds a grudge against them for the 2016 primary.

actmyname
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September 01, 2020, 02:57:49 AM
 #646

Partisan politick please. Make it easier for Southern Canada to prepare for annexation. Roll Eyes

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September 01, 2020, 03:14:10 PM
 #647

Going to assume that the 20% think it's too batshit given the fact that most of the speaking time was given to people with the Trump name. There are still many Republicans who back Trump reluctantly but still want to see some other prominent republicans speaking.

Could've put Ted Cruz, Lindsey Grahm, Marco Rubio, and so on to at least put some typical GOP names into the convention. The convention was WEIRD. Who the hell wants to listen to all of his children speak about him? They're not the best source of info, and I doubt they have much pull over votes in swing areas that are needed.

Little too batshit for me....

I think I may have lost all sense of scale of this craziness over the last 4 years. Nothing seems too batshit to me about Trump. If he had Stormy Daniels at the RNC praising his mushroom I'd have been only mildly surprised. As for Lil' Marco et al... I think that despite their best efforts to get on Trump's wagon he still holds a grudge against them for the 2016 primary.

Oh he totally still holds a grudge against them for 2016, but I wouldn't understand why he can't remember that it was a very competitive time for everyone. Obviously everyone is going to be throwing jabs at one another over it, that's just how politics works. I think him and Ted Cruz, even if there was the most vicious of fighters, became friendly later on as they did share many similarities on policy.

But yes, I think the whole -- flood the news with craziness is a Trump strategy to keep our brains filled with so much stuff that we can't even pay attention to breaking news anymore.

Is any news breaking news if all news is breaking news? LOL.




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September 03, 2020, 09:22:20 PM
Last edit: September 03, 2020, 11:28:14 PM by velomare
 #648

This man is fantastic (Trump). I trully appreciate him for being a political animal or manipulator.

I don't care what sites you give to me but what I can say is that today is the first day when Trump went in polls over the fucking retarted, why the fuck nomenee of the democratic party, Biden.

Really that 49.5% vs 49% is going to give Trump the victory. At this moment I would bet myself on Trump. He said on twitter that he has 50% over. Neah 49.5% is more than what he needs. Thats how much he got at the last elections. With an useless Biden who tries to send a message only after he checks the people reaction, just being there, not fast enough, not counting enough.. The only way the democrats will win is only if they have something really fucked about trump. And truth to be told... after the fact that each time u watch trump and u fact check and most are lies or missleadings... they really need something about negros or whatever to lose that 20% of the population and even so...30% of those will still vote for him as they are republicans..

Even if he's idiot, a shit, a nothing, a racist, a anti feminist a homophobic and so on, he is still better than Obama/Bush.... still seen him doing nothing... as the legislator changed after midterms..but still .. I think he is better at giving some big part of usa citizens a better hope than the others gave. I don't know if you unterstand my point.

I am hosting usa citizens from all the country (usa); even some democrats love him. What I see bad is the way the shity white supremacists or the league of black, those extremists and so many other groups support him.
As  I said before, I am happy he was elected. He is the face of USA - A bad apprentience show on TV only.

I found funny his last says on sars cov 2 that they won't join the world research because it is managed by OMS. He kinda stands on his ideas (even if those are bad as fuck)

Edit: http://www.youtube.com/w/TZ-yFnFyJ34
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September 04, 2020, 01:59:27 AM
 #649

As  I said before, I am happy he was elected. He is the face of USA - A bad apprentience show on TV only.

So what you're saying is that The Apprentice needs to be made into a feature-length film starring Donald Trump?

Let's talk about you for a second. Are you Railai? You don't need to answer that because I know that you are.

You didn't get a merit from suchmoon for praising their assured victory a mere week ago so now you are fishing for merits by going the opposite direction?

Just wondering why else you would venture out of your normal habitat of trying to do shady account sales deals.





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September 04, 2020, 02:50:47 AM
 #650

In addition, there is a grassroots recall operation in process, to recall WI Gov. Tony Evers for the lockdowns and for Kenosha.


Kenosha Residents RISE UP Against Democrat Violence! Massive SURGE In Support For Trump After Riots!



Kenosha Residents RISE UP Against Democrat Violence! Massive SURGE In Support For Trump After Riots!

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September 04, 2020, 06:10:06 AM
 #651

As  I said before, I am happy he was elected. He is the face of USA - A bad apprentience show on TV only.

So what you're saying is that The Apprentice needs to be made into a feature-length film starring Donald Trump?

Let's talk about you for a second. Are you Railai? You don't need to answer that because I know that you are.

You didn't get a merit from suchmoon for praising their assured victory a mere week ago so now you are fishing for merits by going the opposite direction?

Just wondering why else you would venture out of your normal habitat of trying to do shady account sales deals.

Cool man. I don't quite get what you mean, I don't need merits, the limits are lifted. Can send as many PM's I need and post each 28 seconds. No problem from my side.

I saw another post of you which is funny, I can assure you that I am not Railai, check the discord of each
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September 04, 2020, 07:38:57 AM
 #652

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

538 is giving Trump's election chances at a 29/100 which is basically one percentage point higher than he was in 2016. Seems kind of odd considering he is down in the polls by a larger margin than 2016. HuffPo had him at a 1 percent chance and the NYTs iirc had him at 90% last cycle.

Obviously not counting him out, as I did in 2016, but I think the only way Trump wins is if dems get a low turnout. He isn't winning enough independents to carry the election.

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September 19, 2020, 04:40:05 AM
 #653

Trump spends $13 billion to buy some votes in Florida. Gotta love the hustle.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/914466896/trump-administration-announces-nearly-13-billion-in-aid-for-puerto-rico

To be fair, PR needed that money... THREE FUCKING YEARS AGO.

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September 19, 2020, 07:18:30 AM
 #654

Michael Moore says Trump is on course for another win: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning

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September 19, 2020, 07:23:35 AM
 #655

So...rip RGB...and I thought things were intense this morning.

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September 19, 2020, 08:56:14 PM
 #656

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/act-blue-donations-record-rgb-death-flip-senate/

Quote
According to ActBlue's tracker, the platform brought in about $17 million between the hours of 9 p.m. ET, just after McConnell's statement, and midnight.

Quote
Crooked Media, the organization started by former top Obama staffers that is behind popular podcast Pod Save America, said Saturday that donations to their fundraiser "Get Mitch or Die Trying," which distributes donations between 13 Democrats targeting seats held by Republican senators, are significantly up.

Unfortunately McTurtle can still fill the position during the lame duck session... regardless how the election goes.

So...rip RGB...and I thought things were intense this morning.

RIP

She was a superstar.

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September 19, 2020, 10:24:25 PM
 #657

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/act-blue-donations-record-rgb-death-flip-senate/

Quote
According to ActBlue's tracker, the platform brought in about $17 million between the hours of 9 p.m. ET, just after McConnell's statement, and midnight.

Quote
Crooked Media, the organization started by former top Obama staffers that is behind popular podcast Pod Save America, said Saturday that donations to their fundraiser "Get Mitch or Die Trying," which distributes donations between 13 Democrats targeting seats held by Republican senators, are significantly up.

Unfortunately McTurtle can still fill the position during the lame duck session... regardless how the election goes.

Crooked Media has some really great podcasts (for those who don't mind listening to former Obama staffers).

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September 20, 2020, 05:08:05 AM
 #658

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/act-blue-donations-record-rgb-death-flip-senate/

Quote
According to ActBlue's tracker, the platform brought in about $17 million between the hours of 9 p.m. ET, just after McConnell's statement, and midnight.

Quote
Crooked Media, the organization started by former top Obama staffers that is behind popular podcast Pod Save America, said Saturday that donations to their fundraiser "Get Mitch or Die Trying," which distributes donations between 13 Democrats targeting seats held by Republican senators, are significantly up.

Unfortunately McTurtle can still fill the position during the lame duck session... regardless how the election goes.

Crooked Media has some really great podcasts (for those who don't mind listening to former Obama staffers).

Ugh, not a fan of listening to Obama staffers view on stuff. Are those some of the guys who were in marketing (like, creating campaign ads) or am I thinking of someone else?

Only somewhat politically related podcast I've ever liked on Spotify is Freakonomics radio. But that's just cause they delve into political topics every so often alongside a ton of other stuff.

But onto the RBG craze news. Yes, even if the Republicans lose control of the Presidency / the Senate, they're going to pick someone after the lame duck (or before it, if they rush it through right now) I think political donors are much happier to have a SC that is rightward for the next few decades compared to having something short term.




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September 20, 2020, 09:29:14 PM
 #659

Hope we can get one more good scotus pick..
It is the main reason real conservatives vote trump..
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September 21, 2020, 04:39:05 AM
 #660

Hope we can get one more good scotus pick..
It is the main reason real conservatives vote trump..

So what do you think will happen if he lets one get confirmed before the election?

Was just thinking about it...seems like his best play is to sabotage whoever he nominates and blame the democrats.  

After RGBs seat, it's unlikely there will be another opening in the next decade let alone next 4 years. Think about it.

Maybe I'm missing something, but Trump letting a confirmation happen or seem inevitable before election day seems like it would be a big mistake.

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