Coronavirus Outbreak

[CoinCube]

https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196

Thesis:  May have leaked out of Fort Detrick and kicked around the U.S. for a while before it popping up in a big way at the Wuhan 'wet market'.  Fallout (deaths) were blamed on other things (e.g., vaping) and swept under the carpet.

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I also have to wonder if a long-ago SARS vaccine trial didn't contribute to the overreactions among some of the Chinese victims as postulated earlier.

This is a highly contagious pandemic. It cant leak out of somewhere and "kick around" without it exploding in a very fatal and very obvious way. If it had first escaped out of Fort Detrick Maryland would be ground zero and there would be thousands of deaths by now in the state and local hospital systems would be crumpling under the mass numbers of critically ill ICU patients. That has not happened. We probably have a few weeks until we reach that point in the US starting Greater Seattle area. High death rates have been reported in Italy and Iran where there was no SARS vaccine trial. This disease does not appear to be ethnic specific.

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[tvbcof]

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globalresearch.ca seems pretty wacky even by Chinese media standards.  They are like the infowars of China.
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I still have yet to come across any convincing evidence that the virus didn't most likely originate from some animal, probably a bat, somewhere near Wuhan.

I'm not holding my breath.  Seems like there is a perfect 1-to-1 relationship between what the mainstream tells you to believe and what you believe.  If Big Bro tells you through an authorized channel (PBS, MSNBC, FOX, etc) that it looks like a chink weapon from their labs I'm sure you will have no problem finding all kinds of 'convincing evidence' for that.  Until then, it's bat soup.  Period.

For my part I've got no idea which lab it came from, but I'm quite sure that it (or they) came out of one.  I've for years understood why these labs exist and what they monkey around with.  It's also clear that these labs exchange data and biological materiel.  It's OK for you to see 'convincing evidence' of that since it was reported by our glorious mainstream media when the arrests and vial smuggling happened from Canada to China a month or two ago.

What I will do with the information from the article is to keep it in my mind and pattern-match the hypothesis against new observations as they come in.  That's kind of an old-school method of analysis, but it worked pretty well since the age of enlightenement so I'll stick with it.

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BTW, .ca is for 'canada'.  Globalresearch.ca is not 'Chinese infowars'.  China (mainland) is .cn.  Globalresearch.ca is headed by some Canadian professor and they have been pretty focused on 'anti-globalization' for a long long time now.  Probably since you were still shitting soft.  I can understand how that might look 'anti-western' to people operating at a fairly simplistic level.

[tvbcof]

https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196

Thesis:  May have leaked out of Fort Detrick and kicked around the U.S. for a while before it popping up in a big way at the Wuhan 'wet market'.  Fallout (deaths) were blamed on other things (e.g., vaping) and swept under the carpet.

...
I also have to wonder if a long-ago SARS vaccine trial didn't contribute to the overreactions among some of the Chinese victims as postulated earlier.

This is a highly contagious pandemic. It cant leak out of somewhere and "kick around" without it exploding in a very fatal and very obvious way. If it had first escaped out of Fort Detrick Maryland would be ground zero and there would be thousands of deaths by now in the state and local hospital systems would be crumpling under the mass numbers of critically ill ICU patients. That has not happened.

From what I 'know' about the ailment I don't necessarily believe that to be true.  Seems mostly like it is (to most people) just another seasonal bug which many don't even know they got, and there are thousands of 'flu deaths' every month.  The mortality figures we've seen out of China are not in the numbers that couldn't be swept under the statistics.

Also, as has been pointed out elsewhere, people were told that Grandma's death was the flu, then when they look at the death cert it says (from months ago) 'coronavirus'.  So it is being reported by some at least.

Again, the mysterious inability for the U.S. to be able to come up with a test for 'covid-19' is getting more suspicious by the day.  Perhaps they are not getting 'false' positives but rather the correct reading.  That is to say, perhaps it has already been around the block in the U.S..

We probably have a few weeks until we reach that point in the US starting Greater Seattle area. High death rates have been reported in Italy and Iran where there was no SARS vaccine trial. This disease does not appear to be ethnic specific.

It is said that Italians are fairly close to Iranians in terms of phenotype.  It is also clear that there are multiple 'strains' floating around and that the Italian/Iranian strain is different than, say, the Japanese one.  Type C and type L if I remember correctly with different characteristics.

We know that these BL4 labs have been cooking up bags of these things and it's a fair bet that they have 100's of related strains to choose from.

Some people conjecture that the easiest time to use one of these goodies on an adversary is when another one is already kicking around and there is a lot of confusion.  And that might be why the Iranians (esp, their leadership) are so sick right now.

edit:  Oh ya.  Italy also deserved a lesson in good behavior:  https://en.mfa.ir/portal/newsview/573093/iran-italy-discuss-bilateral-relations-jcpoa

[CoinCube]

...
Again, the mysterious inability for the U.S. to be able to come up with a test for 'covid-19' is getting more suspicious by the day.  Perhaps they are not getting 'false' positives but rather the correct reading.  That is to say, perhaps it has already been around the block in the U.S..
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Some people conjecture...

No mystery about the tests. Our government is incompetent and slow. The CDC was not prepared to handle the volume that was required of it and our bureaucracy likes to centralize power so other labs were prohibited from developing their own tests by red tape. As soon as the CDC cried uncle and outsourced the process to the private sector we had labs like the University of Washington immediately performing hundreds and soon thousands of tests a day. Many of the cases diagnosed to date including the one in my local hospital ICU were diagnosed by such labs and are "presumptive positives" because the centralized labs are too overwhelmed to even confirm the findings despite having days to do so. Private sector positives are required to send their positives to state level labs for confirmation.

It is probably best to avoid conjecture. Otherwise things quickly degenerate into a let's blame the group we like least contest. The USA did it. No the Communists did it. No the Jews did it. No it was the Nazi White Supremacist ect. TwitchySeal reaction is probably best. Without hard proof we should proceed as though this were a natural interspecies jump. The fact that it is well within the realm of possibility that this was was an engineered interspecies jump requires investigation at this stage and perhaps suspicion but not accusation.

From what I 'know' about the ailment I don't necessarily believe that to be true.  Seems mostly like it is (to most people) just another seasonal bug which many don't even know they got, and there are thousands of 'flu deaths' every month.  The mortality figures we've seen out of China are not in the numbers that couldn't be swept under the statistics.

That depends on how old you are. The best data we have comes out of China where they have been dealing with this for months.

Looking at tens of thousands of confirmed cases they are reporting a 8% mortality rate in those 70-79 and a nearly 15% mortality rate in those over 80. Yes young people do much better 0.2-0.4% mortality. They are probably missing asymptomatic cases so this is probably an overestimate but if you are old this is serious business

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

[tvbcof]

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Some people conjecture...

It is probably best to avoid conjecture.

The alternative to 'conjecture' is to simply accept one thing and one thing only as a fact, or not think about anything at all.  That's retarded, but a very useful mindset to have amongst one's sheep.

Otherwise things quickly degenerate let's blame the groups we don't like contest.
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No they don't.

There is nothing whatsoever wrong with coming up with ideas about why something might be like it is, or listening to other people's ideas about the same.  In fact it's quite noble.

The only sin is to listen to/generate one conjecture and one conjecture only.

That is EXACTLY what TPTB want their peeps to do.  And for obvious reasons.  That's what they instruct for 12+ years in 'public education'.  Thankfully I was to bored in school to pay much attention but I got pretty indoctrinated anyway and it took many many years of hard work before the indoctrination completely wore off.

[tvbcof]

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TwitchySeal reaction is probably best. Without hard proof we should proceed as though this were a natural interspecies jump. The fact that it is well within the realm of possibility that this was was an engineered interspecies jump requires investigation at this stage and perhaps suspicion but not accusation.
...

A Bat with coronavirus+SARS got bitten by a snake with coronavirus+AIDS which then ass-fucked a pangolin with coronavirus+ebola.  Then some Chinese ran over it and took the carcass to the Wuhan wet market and sold it.  That's the strongest possibility to Twitchy because MSNBC said so, but if they allow for some other explanation in the future he might entertain it.

Forgive me for NOT adopting Twitchy's philosophical methodologies (rightly referred to as a 'reaction' by you.)

[CoinCube]

Forgive me for NOT adopting Twitchy's philosophical methodologies (rightly referred to as a 'reaction' by you.)

Fair enough like I said I suspect this thing was engineered in Wuhan and got out because they screwed up but there is no smoking gun yet.

We do have some US data that indicate that the reported mortality rates out of China are accurate.

Ten deaths have been connected so far to Life Care Center of Kirkland. A further 15 of the the remaining 69 residents are reported to have been transferred to hospitals in the last 48 hours.

We don't know the average age of the population there but presumably its high as the facility is a nursing home. That gives us a mortality rate of approximately 10/79 = 12.6% with a further 19% hospitalization rate presumably for severe or critical illness. This looks to be on par or perhaps even worse worse then the Chinese data but presumably these folks are particularly vulnerable as they have health conditions that necessitate them living in a nursing home.

Also of note of the initial first responders who responded to 911 calls from the facility before the outbreak was diagnosed a total of 31 firefighters and 3 police officers would ultimately be quarantined or isolated. As of this writing, 18 are showing symptoms.

Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/us/coronavirus-washington-state.html
https://www.foxnews.com/health/washington-care-center-hospitalizes-residents
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/family-members-of-residents-at-life-care-center-of-kirkland-nursing-home-decry-response-to-coronavirus/

Edit: Zerohedge is reporting that there was 69 residents at the facility after not before 15 were transferred to the hospital. In this case mortality so far is slightly lower 10/94 = 10.6% in this elderly and vulnerable population.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/its-awful-situation-washington-moves-take-over-nursing-home-epicenter-outbreak

[TwitchySeal]

If Big Bro tells you through an authorized channel (PBS, MSNBC, FOX, etc) that it looks like a chink weapon from their labs I'm sure you will have no problem finding all kinds of 'convincing evidence' for that.  Until then, it's bat soup.  Period.

Cable news in general does more  second hand+ reporting than anything else, their only value to me is the occasional interview with someone noteworthy.  And political debates I guess.

What I will do with the information from the article is to keep it in my mind and pattern-match the hypothesis against new observations as they come in.  That's kind of an old-school method of analysis, but it worked pretty well since the age of enlightenement so I'll stick with it.

I think you should focus on figuring out who the most qualified people to speak about the virus are, and then see what they have to say directly without giving in to any click bait headlines claiming to have the answer to the question you were wondering about.

China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US?  <=== Textbook click bait headline.  (red flag)

BTW, .ca is for 'cananda'.  Globalresearch.ca is not 'Chinese infowars'.  China (mainland) is .cn.  Globalresearch.ca (http://Globalresearch.ca) is headed by some Canadian professor and they have been pretty focused on 'anti-globalization' for a long long time now.  Probably since you were still shitting soft.  I can understand how that might look 'anti-western' to people operating at a fairly simplistic level.

He claims to be a Canadian professor that lives in Shanghai and works for a Chinese University.  There isn't much about him that can be independently verified, but all of his articles get a ton of traffic and reposts across all the big conspiracy blogs.

(1) https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180429.shtml  
(2) https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-23/New-study-shows-Wuhan-seafood-market-not-the-source-of-COVID-19-OjhaHnwdnG/index.html <==misrepresented point of the study
(3) https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930183-5
(4) http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/27/c_138824145.htm  
(5) http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0223/c90000-9661026.html  
(6) https://m.weibo.cn/status/4477008216030027#&video
(7) http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0301/c90000-9663473.html
( http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2020/02/27/coronavirus-italian-strain-isolated-at-sacco-hospital_986ff0c2-7bd6-49fe-bbef-b3a0c1ebd6f4.html
(9) Coronavirus has Mutated, Iran attacked by a Different Strain from Wuhan
(10) https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/health/fort-detrick-lab-shut-down-after-failed-safety-inspection-all/article_767f3459-59c2-510f-9067-bb215db4396d.html
(11) https://www.unz.com/wwebb/bats-gene-editing-and-bioweapons-recent-darpa-experiments-raise-concerns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/
(12) https://www.sohu.com/a/376454525_164026

[Tash]

Two of the makeshift hospitals build in China to close, lack of patients. Two more the next days.

[CoinCube]

Two of the makeshift hospitals build in China to close, lack of patients. Two more the next days.

I suspect the quarantine efforts by China will slow their nationwide spread but I am very skeptical it will do more then that. The Chinese know that if you get this they will take you out of your home and put you in a makeshift quarantine center with a bunch of other sick people.

Heck one of their quarantine centers just collapsed killing large numbers of people.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51784167

So if you were a Chinese citizen and suddenly developed a cough would you rush to report to the government for testing so you could be put in a mass government quarantine or would you keep quiet?

Many will keep quiet which is why given the mild almost asymptomatic spread of this virus containment is impossible.

[BADecker]

That's a really neat chart. Years ago I used to make charts with Excel. They were never this good, but it was usually that I didn't need all the colorful detail. I haven't done it for a long time. I wonder how much I would have to practice to be able to make one like this.

[CoinCube]

That's a really neat chart. Years ago I used to make charts with Excel. They were never this good, but it was usually that I didn't need all the colorful detail. I haven't done it for a long time. I wonder how much I would have to practice to be able to make one like this.

Ok well at then end of the day its really easy to tell if this is all fake or not.

Just wait a few weeks.

If its not fake millions of people across the globe mostly elderly will die an early death over the next few months and hospitals worldwide will be utterly overwhelmed. If its a fake as you seem strongly believe nothing at all will happen.

Prepare or not according to your assumptions.

All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/all-hospital-beds-us-will-be-filled-coronavirus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysis
 
Edit: Here is the research paper from China that is the source of the chart above.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
I suppose one could write up a fake research paper too though so if you believe this is all conspiracy that may not be useful.  

[TwitchySeal]

That's a really neat chart. Years ago I used to make charts with Excel. They were never this good, but it was usually that I didn't need all the colorful detail. I haven't done it for a long time. I wonder how much I would have to practice to be able to make one like this.

Ok well at then end of the day its really easy to tell if this is all fake or not.

Just wait a few weeks.

If its not fake millions of people across the globe mostly elderly will die an early death over the next few months and hospitals worldwide will be utterly overwhelmed. If its a fake as you seem strongly believe nothing at all will happen.

Prepare or not according to your assumptions.

All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/all-hospital-beds-us-will-be-filled-coronavirus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysis
 
Edit: Here is the research paper from China that is the source of the chart above.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
I suppose one could write up a fake research paper too though so if you believe this is all conspiracy that may not be useful.  

The data from that Chinese paper and the WHO-China data seem to be by far the most reliable numbers we have right now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

This chart considers both.


Great resource ==> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[BADecker]

That's a really neat chart. Years ago I used to make charts with Excel. They were never this good, but it was usually that I didn't need all the colorful detail. I haven't done it for a long time. I wonder how much I would have to practice to be able to make one like this.

Ok well at then end of the day its really easy to tell if this is all fake or not.

Just wait a few weeks.

If its not fake millions of people across the globe mostly elderly will die an early death over the next few months and hospitals worldwide will be utterly overwhelmed. If its a fake as you seem strongly believe nothing at all will happen.

Prepare or not according to your assumptions.

All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/all-hospital-beds-us-will-be-filled-coronavirus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysis
 
Edit: Here is the research paper from China that is the source of the chart above.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
I suppose one could write up a fake research paper too though so if you believe this is all conspiracy that may not be useful.  

But be sure to get yourself over to the hospital to see for yourself. And check the testing to make sure it is CV and not something else. And if YOU are a patient, get the doctor who diagnosed you to court on the stand to say it was really CV and how he knows, with witnesses and evidence.

If you are dead, however, simply ignore this post.

[CoinCube]

But be sure to get yourself over to the hospital to see for yourself. And check the testing to make sure it is CV and not something else. And if YOU are a patient, get the doctor who diagnosed you to court on the stand to say it was really CV and how he knows, with witnesses and evidence.

If you are dead, however, simply ignore this post.

I know that there is a single case currently in my town and an elderly male in critical condition in the ICU.
I can confirm for a fact that said patient exists having spoken to one of the doctors who works for that hospital system.

I know they sent a sample of his respiratory secretions to the University of Washington and it was reported back to the hospital that the sample tested positive for Coronavirus. Just today I learned that the Washington state lab confirmed this result so he is no longer a presumptive positive but a confirmed positive.

One of three things must therefore be true.

1) There is a Coronavirus patient in my local ICU.
2) Both the University of Washington Lab and the Washington State lab are part of a giant worldwide conspiracy.
3) I am a nefarious evil member of the NWO trying to trick and mislead you because that matters for some strange reason.

The truth is #1 but if you choose to believe #2 or #3 that is your call.
We all make the best decisions we can in a world of imperfect information.  

Also I am not dead though that last bit was a little morbid given the topic.
 

[BADecker]

But be sure to get yourself over to the hospital to see for yourself. And check the testing to make sure it is CV and not something else. And if YOU are a patient, get the doctor who diagnosed you to court on the stand to say it was really CV and how he knows, with witnesses and evidence.

If you are dead, however, simply ignore this post.

I know that there is a single case currently in my town and an elderly male in critical condition in the ICU.
I can confirm for a fact that said patient exists having spoken to one of the doctors who works for that hospital system.

I know they sent a sample of his respiratory secretions to the University of Washington and it was reported back to the hospital that the sample tested positive for Coronavirus. Just today I learned that the Washington state lab confirmed this result so he is no longer a presumptive positive but a confirmed positive.

One of three things must therefore be true.

1) There is a Coronavirus patient in my local ICU.
2) Both the University of Washington Lab and the Washington State lab are part of a giant worldwide conspiracy.
3) I am a nefarious evil member of the NWO trying to trick and mislead you because that matters for some strange reason.

The truth is #1 but if you choose to believe #2 or #3 that is your call.
We all make the best decisions we can in a world of imperfect information.  

Also I am not dead though that last bit was a little morbid given the topic.
 

You forgot:

4) Some other virus gives the same results as CV.
5) Other viruses convert to CV randomly.
6) People who have CV symptoms and are negative for CV, is because the CV transformed into something else.

Thus, the whole medical is part of the conspiracy by not knowing the things that they say. We probably could easily find a hundred more points. Get them on the stand with proof for what they say. Much more, the media.

[CoinCube]

You forgot:

4) Some other virus gives the same results as CV.
5) Other viruses convert to CV randomly.
6) People who have CV symptoms and are negative for CV, is because the CV transformed into something else.

Thus, the whole medical is part of the conspiracy by not knowing the things that they say. We probably could easily find a hundred more points. Get them on the stand with proof for what they say. Much more, the media.

#4 is unlikely and #5 and #6 are not really possible. I know a little more then most about the testing process so let me share. The test used to detect the coronavirus is RT-PCR which is a common diagnostic test that uses DNA primers to amplify small segments of gene sequence.

Here is a brief three minute video that explains how RT-PCR works
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRwoOBuk00c

The test at the University of Washington uses the primers recommended by the WHO. The WHO reports the results of their testing here.

Diagnostic detection of Wuhan coronavirus 2019 by real-time RTPCR
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/wuhan-virus-assay-v1991527e5122341d99287a1b17c111902.pdf?sfvrsn=d381fc88_2

The primers used by the WHO were reported to generate positive results with this new coronavirus Covid-19 and negative results with both multiple other coronaviruses and multiple other common causes of human respiratory disease.

Specifically the primers used were reported to result in negative results with multiple different samples of the following diseases.

HCoV-HKU1
HCoV-OC43
HCoV-NL63
HCoV-229E
MERS-CoV
Influenza A (H1N1/09)
Influenza A (H3N2)
Influenza A(H5N1)
Influenza B
Rhinovirus/Enterovirus
Respiratory syncytial virus (A/B)
Parainfluenza 1 virus
Parainfluenza 2 virus
Parainfluenza 3 virus
Parainfluenza A or -B virus
Human metapneumovirus
Adenovirus
Human Bocavirus
Legionella spp.
Mycoplasma spp

So #4 Some other virus gives the same results as CV. Is not impossible but these primers have been tested against the known human respiratory pathogens and returned negative results.
#5 Other viruses convert to CV randomly is not really possible based on the nature of DNA and viral replication same with #6.

So I agree you can add #4 to the list of possibilities. But its unlikely and since you don't need to use the WHO primers the CDC in the USA developed their own different primers for example you would need this rare error to occur multiple times with the same disease with different sets of primers or have everyone testing in on the conspiracy.  

[onemd]

That's a really neat chart. Years ago I used to make charts with Excel. They were never this good, but it was usually that I didn't need all the colorful detail. I haven't done it for a long time. I wonder how much I would have to practice to be able to make one like this.

This chart is inaccurate.

1) At the time, they taken 44,000 cases and just divided by death. Without waiting for all cases to resolve. It's cases/death-(lag to diagnose). If you put 50,000 cases inside of a sealed dome, and by day 3 there are 500 deaths. You may say, alright death/cases that's 1% morality rate. But 2 weeks later, all cases resolved and it's 2500 death. Morality is 5%, not 1%.

2) Old people can tend to die quicker, thus biasing the numbers of older faster up if old people died on average 3 days, vs. a healthy person 10 days. It will show a much higher older person of death to younger in ratio. I am not saying that younger people don't have better odds. By being younger, stronger, with better immune systems, they have better odds, but take the chart with a grain of salt.

3) Once the medical system is overwhelmed, there will be no top-tier medical treatment open to everyone, thereby increasing the rate of morality.

4) Do you trust the Chinese dictator government? That is reason alone to be warry of information provided. At the banquet they engineered, and arrested medical doctors, to cover up the data on it. The world could of been spared the wuhan virus if this didn't occur: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5227229.0 (In the main post better detail)

Critical Point: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5227229.msg53981839#msg53981839

[TwitchySeal]

This chart is inaccurate.

Accuracy is relative.

Do you have access to data that is more accurate?

In the end, the most accurate data on mortality rate will be determined only after the virus has been contained.
So the question at this point is 'which data is most likely to be the most accurate'.

China has ~80% of reported cases, so It seems that the WHO-China Joint Mission report, and the Chinese CCDC report , both released a couple weeks ago, is the best we have at the moment.

[franky1]

This chart is inaccurate.

1) At the time, they taken 44,000 cases and just divided by death. Without waiting for all cases to resolve.

NOPE
its 94% recovered/discharged 6% death
its not 94% still sick 6% dead