Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tash]

I get really bad throat infections with flu-like symptoms a few times a year and they're very unpleasant for a few days to a week but as with the flu young/healthy people will likely get over it. It just seems to be mostly killing the already nearly-dead with underlying health conditions anyway and they're probably the ones that need to self-isolate unless it starts killing anyone else.

Yesterday, a 48 year old woman died with no known preconditions in self quarantine.
I have read reports of deaths of formerly healthy doctors and nurses in wuhan, died of covid in their early 30's.
Don't be too sure...

Where from and what's the source? Also, I'm not sure of anything, but until people start dropping like flies I'll continue to believe it's probably over-hyped and one or two young people dying doesn't mean much or scare me. I know of two people who died of heart attacks in their 20's but that's a rare occurrence and there's usually something else going on with them for that to happen. There's always going to be outliers but that doesn't mean to say the entire world needs to panic like it is right now.

From Austria. Source: National Newspapers. Exact cause of death to be examined, that's why it's not added to the Covid statistics yet.

I wonder how those figure compare to flu deaths.

1 per 1000 of population, German scientist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn074EB5NNY&feature=youtu.be

Complete BS.  
The fatality rate of people infected by influenza (aka "the flu") is 0,1%. Your numbers would mean Germany's population is only a few hundred thousands, because a few hundred people die because of the flu there each year. This winter only about 200 so far.
Again: 1-2 out of of 1000 infected influenza cases die. Mainly people over 60 years of age.

Covid fatality will likely be between 2% and 10%. "Just a flu"...  

All-cause mortality levels in up to 24 European countries (maybe someone can point out the pantemic part)
http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Italy pop  2018 60,391,000, so per year 6039
In the US a common used figure is 37000 per year https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Has Italy become a thirth world  country, has lost data for 2 days, almost 50% mortality rate and cant get people healty, total contrast to South Korea

Think about that

China and Italy patient 0 can not be located, what does that mean? How can that be?

[OutOfMemory]

Dude, you're comparing apples with bananas here.
Do you even look at your own links?

The "mystery" of higher death figures of italy vs. south corea is already solved.
Also, you can't compare yearly flu data with a few months of Covid data.
There is a huge amount of common sense missing in your posts.

That was my last try to discuss this with you.

[Ibian]

what makes you think everyone is going to get infected?

...all of the things? 2 week asymptomatic spread, persists outside the body for up to 9 days, R0 of 6, doubling time of infected is about 6 days.

There is no natural immunity as this is a mutated animal virus, it can't be contained and the spread is exponential. Everyone is absolutely going to get infected.

[fillippone]

Lockdowns don’t help with that—and probably won’t help the old folks in the end.

Lockdowns, if implemented early enough and supported by other measures, can help to slow down the spread, which may be the difference between life and death for a lot of people. If you insist on killing yourself that's your business but you probably shouldn't be making that decision for anyone else.

Italy we have a open sky laboratory on lockdowns.

We had  two zones in northern Italy where the disease initially spread.

The first was the one that actually has been quickly locked down almost one month ago. it was a few small village in a rural area. They sent the army patrolling it (quasi-Chinese approach). The people were smart enough to understand the risk and followed the rules closely (being a rural environment helped a lot imho. The disease has almost disappeared, today, no new infections in the last few days.  

The other one was inexplicably missed out. A few cases not correctly diagnosed, as there they followed the "general Italian rule of lockdowns". The disease was in the wild  for a few weeks with people going on with their businesses as usual. Result is the hospital in that  zone (near the mountains) are now close to collapse. I saw a video on WhatsApp (anedoctical evidence I know, with 4x obituaries than usual, none of them diagnosed).

Also Milan, the main city close to the epicenter of the disease, with the best hospital in the country, is ready for the "battle of Milan" facing unprecedented pressure on the health system. Again, anedotical evidence, of many people with symptoms not tested nor accepted in the hospitals because of the critical situation.

I found this graph details the new cases on those provinces.
The the green one is the first put in lockdown, while the yellow is the one I was referring to into my previous message: the difference is clear, and also clear how important is to respect the rules.
(the blue line is Milan, the main northern city).

[nullius]

''How long are we meant to self-isolate for?'' As long as we have to mate. 'Is this going to happen everytime a new form of SARS appears?' Yes if it's serious enough, quit crying about it, not everything has a good solution.

You’re the one who should quit crying.  Or else, good luck, um, eating.  As a practical matter, your proposed rule is a most excellent plan for totally imploding a fragile, technocratic globalized civilization based on centralization and long supply chains and...  (why do I even bother?)

It's a pretty crazy situation. If the virus doesn't recede significantly over the summer, will we stay on global lockdown for 1 year+, while waiting for a vaccine?

A technocratic, industrialized, globalized international economy based on massive centralization and long supply chains cannot survive such a scenario as “global lockdown for 1 year+”.

That is why I accuse headless-chicken governments of destroying the world in a futile attempt to save it from a virus that is not being significantly slowed by all the lockdowns.

My concern is distinct from theymos’ and hilarious’ concerns about the economy.  I don’t share the general worldview of economic thinking—although I think that they are evaluating this situation rationally, for the most part.  Stop panicking!

Between the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, I fear Famine.  I do not fear Plague (at least, not in this instance).  I do fear War.  I have never feared Death; and I do not intend to start now.


The Earth is ridiculously overpopulated.  A long-term global lockdown proximately causing deindustrialization and famine could help to knock off a few billion talking apes.  Maybe it is not such a bad idea after all?

~

I agree with TECSHARE on this.  Who would've thought.

I hope not with this part of the international quotation that I just snipped:

The issue is not that this disease is just so fatally dangerous, but that is is just dangerous enough, and mostly debilitating with many requiring long hospital stays to treat. This disease has a unique combination of long viability on surfaces, being airborne, long incubation periods, passive carriers, and high rates of infection that is basically like a checklist of all the things you would put into a disease you intend to cause a pandemic.

Cf.:

I have a high level of confidence that this is a bioweapon, and will lead to open war. Even if it isn't, it looks like it, and that might be enough to ignite tensions.

Those who habitually spew twisted illogic, quack junk, and extraordinary claims on the basis of merest speculation (not to mention lies about other people) do not suddenly start making sense, unless they radically change their worldviews.  That is psychologically difficult, almost impossible; and it requires an extraordinary mind which would be unlikely to believe nonsense in the first instance.  TEChSHARE remains the same artless Techy as always; and the probability approaches one that he always will.  That is why I distrust him as a person.

We're gonna run out of beds, doctors will have to decide who dies and who doesn't, it's going to suck.

People are going to die.  Yes.  That’s life.


I find myself arguing against each and all of:

• Panic.
• Fantastic dolts who suppose that SARS-CoV-2 must be somehow of different origins from the 2002–03 SARS-CoV.  Wow, a zoonotic jumped species—as has doubtless been the origin of countless diseases throughout the whole history of all living creatures on Earth.  It is closely related to another zoonotic that also jumped species.  Clearly, the most likely explanation is that this is a genetically engineered bioweapon!
• Panic.
• Destroying all that remains of civilization, for the purpose of failing to save it.
• Panic.
• Tyranny.  The naïve, fallible mortal human in me is shocked that nobody notices we have instantaneously entered an era of global dictatorship, without any significant resistance or even protest.  The dispassionate scholar knows human nature, and is therefore not surprised.  The new normality is that every government everywhere can issue any “emergency” order they want, and nobody will even complain!  WTF.  Are you awake?  (Nice question.)
• Panic.

My own perspective:  Humans endured plagues for all time before modern history.  There are now two significant differences:

• Technology makes plagues spread much faster.  I shudder to imagine the Black Death in the era of aeroplanes and automobiles.  Could happen someday—is not the coronavirus situation.  Many coronavirus-type incidents have probably occurred over the centuries, but remained local, minor, barely worth remark.
  
  Indeed, I would suggest that Chinese scholars should probably examine the question of whether there is any evidence of previous SARS outbreaks, before modern times.  My hypothesis:  Variants of this virus have jumped to humans many times within the five millennia for which at least some historical record may exist.  Minor local outbreaks may have burned out without leaving any historical evidence that would be extant today (especially after the last century’s upheavals destroyed much historical evidence in China).  Thus, a negative cannot be proved (as is oft the case with historical hypotheses).
  
  I do think that’s an important question; and it is just the type of question that nobody thinks of.
• Modernity has made humans soft and weak.  Soft, weak creatures do not survive.  In this context, I mean that collectively, in the long run.  Sooner or later, humans have a high risk of going extinct due to having degenerated into wimps who are totally maladapted to the harsh conditions of life in this world.  Evolution is blind:  It does not always “progress” or “advance” a species with godlike intentions, as commonly assumed and implied by pseudoscientific liberals.

I never said that the virus is not bad (although I think its level of badness is much exaggerated, whereas people have faced much worse historically).

I never said that people will not die.  Actually, I am of the opinion that everybody dies someday.

I said and say, stop panicking.  If the current trend does not soon change, then a relatively moderate global epidemic of coronavirus will have ushered in a new era of mass starvation.  It has already inaugurated global tyranny, the full extent of which has yet to be seen.

[estenity]

seems that several oral publications of chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine efficacy are done orally in different countries.
would like to see a full paper.

[ProtonBlast]

Now I'm reading that a large percentage of people have it with no symptoms. Look at those NBA players like Kevin Durant who have it.

[Tash]

Now I'm reading that a large percentage of people have it with no symptoms. Look at those NBA players like Kevin Durant who have it.

A lot of people have it. What is happpening a test is used what is not peer reviewed normaly such a test is not even developed because it is not worth while to do it. More tests handed out to places, more positeve test. Then you have places like Italy where every doctors offices is closed and everyone must go to hospital which then are full. There is also travelrestriction, it is just a mess.
German scientist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn074EB5NNY&feature=youtu.be

[tvbcof]

Some interesting information with some interesting timelines:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J6zm6zgah0

[Tash]

Some interesting information with some interesting timelines:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J6zm6zgah0

Patient 0 has not been found in China and also not in Italy. Patient 1 is known in both Towns.

68 Vaping, EVALI disease deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/basic_information/e-cigarettes/severe-lung-disease.html

[Tash]

68 Countries who have infected but have not reported any death or recovered
42 have reported nobody died from COVID-19 so far,  up 4 from previous day
25 more have died as recovered to this day
The  mostly aged Cruise Ship Passanger recover at a good rate. Strange new infetions , now 712 was 696
Data from Worldometer
* Health expenditure of GDP in 2016.  The winner was Monaco with 1.75%   Source

--------------------	Inf.	Deaths	Rec.	Death/Rec.		GDP *
Singapore	266	0	114	0		4,47%
UAE	113	0	26	0,00%		3,52%
Romania	217	0	19	0,00%		4,98%
Vietnam	66	0	16	0,00%		5,66%
Kuwait	130	0	12	0,00%		3,90%
Oman	33	0	12	0,00%		4,29%
Israel	337	0	11	0,00%		7,31%
Macao	13	0	10	0,00%		4,98%
Finland	322	0	10	0,00%		9,49%
Russia	114	0	8	0,00%		5,27%
Saudi Arabia	171	0	6	0,00%		5,74%
Croatia	69	0	5	0,00%		7,18%
Iceland	247	0	5	0,00%		8,29%
Qatar	442	0	4	0,00%		3,08%
Mexico	82	0	4	0,00%		5,47%
Bangladesh	10	0	3	0,00%		2,36%
Belarus	36	0	3	0,00%		6,32%
Czechia	434	0	3	0,00%		7,15%
Pakistan	247	0	2	0,00%		2,75%
Senegal	27	0	2	0,00%		5,51%
Jamaica	13	0	2	0,00%		6,07%
BosniaHerzegovina	34	0	2	0,00%		9,23%
Malta	38	0	2	0,00%		9,30%
Gibraltar	3	0	2	0,00%		9,76%
Nigeria	3	0	1	0,00%		3,65%
Sri Lanka	44	0	1	0,00%		3,89%
Peru	117	0	1	0,00%		5,14%
Jordan	48	0	1	0,00%		5,47%
Colombia	65	0	1	0,00%		5,91%
Cambodia	33	0	1	0,00%		6,08%
Latvia	60	0	1	0,00%		6,24%
Nepal	1	0	1	0,00%		6,29%
N.Macedonia	31	0	1	0,00%		6,34%
Lithuania	26	0	1	0,00%		6,67%
Estonia	225	0	1	0,00%		6,68%
Tunisia	25	0	1	0,00%		6,95%
Georgia	34	0	1	0,00%		8,44%
Moldova	30	0	1	0,00%		8,98%
Serbia	72	0	1	0,00%		9,14%
Armenia	78	0	1	0,00%		9,93%
Afghanistan	22	0	1	0,00%		10,20%
Andorra	39	0	1	0,00%		10,37%
Bahrain	241	1	88	1,14%		4,87%
Diamond Princess	712	7	456	1,54%		-
Thailand	177	1	41	2,44%		3,71%
Malaysia	673	2	49	4,08%		3,80%
China	80894	3237	69614	4,65%		4,98%
Hong Kong	168	4	81	4,94%		6,20%
Taiwan	77	1	20	5,00%		6,20%
S. Korea	8413	84	1540	5,45%		7,34%
Azerbaijan	34	1	6	16,67%		6,89%
Iran	16169	988	5389	18,33%		8,10%
Australia	452	5	27	18,52%		9,25%
Japan	882	29	144	20,14%		10,93%
India	143	3	14	21,43%		3,66%
Egypt	196	6	26	23,08%		4,64%
Iraq	154	11	41	26,83%		3,31%
France	773	175	602	29,07%		11,54%
Portugal	448	1	3	33,33%		9,08%
Greece	387	5	14	35,71%		8,45%
Germany	9367	26	67	38,81%		11,14%
Ireland	292	2	5	40,00%		7,38%
Algeria	61	5	10	50,00%		6,65%
Austria	1332	4	8	50,00%		10,44%
Hungary	50	1	2	50,00%		7,36%
Brazil	346	1	2	50,00%		11,77%
Spain	11826	533	1028	51,85%		8,97%
Canada	598	8	12	66,67%		10,53%
Argentina	79	2	3	66,67%		7,55%
Belgium	1243	10	14	71,43%		10,04%
Indonesia	172	7	9	77,78%		3,12%
Italy	31506	2503	2941	85,11%		8,94%
Lebanon	124	4	4	100,00%		8,02%
USA	6509	115	106	108,49%		17,07%
UK	195	71	65	109,23%		9,76%
Switzerland	2742	27	15	180,00%		12,25%
Morocco	44	2	1	200,00%		5,84%
San Marino	119	11	4	275,00%		6,40%
Norway	1471	3	1	300,00%		10,50%
Philippines	187	14	4	350,00%		4,39%
Denmark	977	4	1	400,00%		10,35%
Poland	238	5	1	500,00%		6,52%
Sweden	1196	8	1	800,00%		10,93%
Netherlands	1705	43	2	2150,00%		10,36%
Cayman Isl	1	1	0,1#	1000,00%		0
Martinique	15	1	0,1#	1000,00%		0,00%
Turkey	98	1	0,1#	1000,00%		4,31%
Guyana	7	1	0,1#	1000,00%		5,48%
Sudan	1	1	0,1#	1000,00%		5,66%
Guatemala	8	1	0,1#	1000,00%		5,82%
Dominican Rep	21	1	0,1#	1000,00%		6,16%
Luxembourg	140	1	0,1#	1000,00%		6,16%
Albania	55	1	0,1#	1000,00%		6,70%
Panama	69	1	0,1#	1000,00%		7,26%
Slovenia	275	1	0,1#	1000,00%		8,47%
Ukraine	14	2	0,1#	2000,00%		6,73%
Bulgaria	81	2	0,1#	2000,00%		8,23%
Ecuador	111	2	0,1#	2000,00%		8,39%

# Lets give some credit and assume some partially recovered to get past div 0

[TECSHARE]

Butthurt rambling

Also there is another very simple explanation of all of this. You are wrong.



MORE:

"Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries Are Flattening Their Covid-19 Curve"

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/infection-trajectory-see-which-countries-are-flattening-their-covid-19-curve

[fillippone]

I found a very interesting resource.
I think this is the best medical resource I saw so far (not a medic here).

These are medics discussing over a Skype Call diagnosis, therapies and best practises dealing with CoronaVirus patient.

Some people here on the forum, whose mother is currently treated in the hospital, confiorms the protocol they are discussing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CegCk3FwvQ&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR19Uxqe_Bh2QBMBarP4VlW8ZzkQ_SIK_n0IY0nT_PPQTSUC17l8Kz45Oms

if you don't speak italian you can activate subtitles and select your language,. I don't know how reliable are these computer-generated-autotranslated subtitles.

Hope it helps.

Second video from the same medics.
Published yesterday. So more updated.
Thanks to the italian forumer who posted online(he's now quarantined and whose mother is in ICU recovering from COVID) and here a brief index:

Code:

2'40 '' Presentation of the working group (2 minutes ... interesting to understand what this group is ... to listen ...).
05 ': 15' '- 13'49' ': Presentation of data collected by GiViTi (after a couple of minutes some statistics on the characteristics of the intensive covid patients begin to appear. Those who like to analyze data are instructive ..).
13'50 '' - 27'38 '': Cremona experience (super red area, about fifteen minutes ... first patients, organization, therapies, medicines ... then other experiences follow).
27'39 '' - 29'02 '' Small moment of operator discouragement ....
29'03 '- 36'17' 'Lecco Hospital (procedure and history since the COVID tsunami began with perplexity in the preparation meetings .. at the minute 30'10' 'confirmation was given of the underestimation of the extent of the virus, but who has not objectively underestimated it ... I think all of us ... and I in the first place .. I would never have thought of such a thing).
36'18 '' - 43'19 '' training of health personnel using PPE systems and procedures.
43'20 '' Carlo, Piedmontese doctor ... Covid arrived a moment later ... they had prepared a little more than the others ... his experience of a hospital that was not immediately immersed in the fray, but who could see what was going on ...
48'30 '' talks about what they expect ... doubling of patients.
49'05 '' extreme difficulty in patient management ... they are not that easy ... (listen carefully ...).
51'50 '' Gina Emergency (Ebola experience 5/6 years ago in Sierra Leone .. different places and situations but similar emergency x quantity of patients),
54'10 '' how to operate a hospital during the management of this emergency?
56'30 '' expresses the difficulties in the management of the covid patient in a hospital in Italy .. serious problem ... and any systems to prevent the asymptomatic patient from "spraying" everyone, including operators.
58'40 '' COVID 19 infection control prevention, Emergency approach. Valid for hospitals but also for home, at work .. etc etc etc ...
1h 08'14 '' mask duration ffp2.
1h 08'21 '' warm medical advice x staff preparation on patient management in any ward like all COVIDs. Problems in management on departments that were not born to be infectious.
1h 11'25 '' appeal to everyone, doctors and nurses.
1h 12'50 '' lack of devices.
1h 14'50 '' undocumented infections ... serves everyone .. us too, while we are on the street ..
1h 16'40 '' Cremona ... groped to educate nurses who are unfamiliar with this way of working.
1h 18'00 '' Attention to the availability of oxygen that is used ... the use of oxygen in the hospital has increased tenfold ... attention to supplies and that the system is able to stay behind
1h 18'35 '' Delirium in the management of blood cultures ... pay attention to antibiotics ....
1h 19'20 '' Laundry and uniforms ... attention ....
1h 19'40 '' Mask also for patients !!!!
1h 20'10 '' How long can a surgical mask be used?
1h 25'05 '' advice from Lecco (Clara) and Cremona (Pan) at the organizational level of the nurses / doctors tours.
1h 27'30 '' Shortage of personnel and optimization of PPE (PPE monitoring and external organization of personnel) Emergency experience with explanatory slides.
1h 35'30 '' Is it possible to sanitize the masks?
1h 44'15 '' - 1h 46'29 '' management of swabs for positive patient COVID research.
1h 37'26 '' Behaviors x sending biological samples.
1h 39'00 '' urgent interventions on NO COVID patients.
1h 41'43 '' Cremona is no longer a hospital of reference because it lives only COVID and at 1h 43 'minutes we hope that Milan will not start as COVID ... otherwise it's really trouble ...
1h 46'30 '' how a patient is handled without buffer (several false negatives).
1h 48'50 '' - 1h50'56 '' management of immunosuppressed patients.
1h 51'10 '' - 1h 56'34 '' management of relations with relatives (to see .. doctors would not want a similar posting but they don't know how to do it ...)
1h 56'35 '' - 1h 58'34 '' management of relations with family members.
1h58'35 '' - 2h 01'29 '' incubation and quarantine period.
2h01'30 '' - 2h 09'00 'logistics in the management of unidirectional flows in hospitals / covid patient wards.
2h 09'01 '' greetings and renewal to a new meeting next Tuesday (topics on psychlogical aspects of patients / doctors / nurses.

[TwitchySeal]

"Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries Are Flattening Their Covid-19 Curve"

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/infection-trajectory-see-which-countries-are-flattening-their-covid-19-curve

I recommend everyone be very careful taking anything from zerohedge seriously. Mostly just conspiracy/pseudo science based click bait.

[OutOfMemory]

At least the myth (or FUD) that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab has finally been debunked by (...) scientists.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

All conspiracy theorists (or terrorists?) please leave this thread. It's game over now.
Thanks, good bye 

[erikalui]

New report from China that people with A blood group are affected more while O blood group are least affected.

They are claiming this based on just few results.

Source: https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/coronaviruspeople-with-type-a-blood-more-susceptible-to-virus-claims-study/story/398512.html

Also, banks in USA have reduced the loan interest rates to 0 and similarly all other countries are doing the same for helping the banks. The estimated losses of all countries is going to be over $1 trillion.

[TECSHARE]

"Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries Are Flattening Their Covid-19 Curve"

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/infection-trajectory-see-which-countries-are-flattening-their-covid-19-curve

I recommend everyone be very careful taking anything from zerohedge seriously. Mostly just conspiracy/pseudo science based click bait.

As usual, you show your ignorance and bias by attacking what you think is the source while never actually reviewing anything. The link uses The University of Oxford as a source, but I suppose they publish conspiracy theories too? Get bent.


MORE:

"A small town in northern Italy has reportedly stopped all new coronavirus infections as part of a successful experiment."

https://postnewsd2.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-small-town-in-northern-italy-has.html

"Professor Crisanti warned that that for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don't."

[OutOfMemory]

Austria as of today (red means quarantined).
Can you see where this will be going to, already?
Switzerland, Germany, France, Spain...
From Italy to half of Europe. Within a few weeks. Buckle up!

[Tash]

"A small town in northern Italy has reportedly stopped all new coronavirus infections as part of a successful experiment."

What is the name?

"Professor Crisanti warned that that for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don't."

If that is the case immagen the number who already recoved

It seems to affect politicians and celebrities a lot more, homeless people in the sewers seem fine. Have they too many bacteria on them that even viruses avoid them?

[TECSHARE]

"A small town in northern Italy has reportedly stopped all new coronavirus infections as part of a successful experiment."

What is the name?

"Professor Crisanti warned that that for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don't."

If that is the case immagen the number who already recoved

It seems to affect politicians and celebrities a lot more, homeless people in the sewers seem fine. Have they too many bacteria on them that even viruses avoid them?

Can you read?

Imagine how many people are walking around unknowingly infecting others.