2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[bbc.reporter]

I have thought about this and I presently consider his argument very uneducated because it can be argued that polls can have personal and political bias. Prediction markets do not have a bias because participants enter this to be right to win the money.

If my argument is correct and if this pump on Trump's ratings on Polymarket continue, it appears that the next president will be a Republican.

Your reasoning makes zero sense here. Betting markets can obviously be manipulated to a great extent since it's all just money that is mainly controlled by whales from around the world just like crypto markets.

Republican supporters are clearly going all in on these betting platforms to provide Trump an advantage when the reality is that it's still 50-50 between them. Think!

The reasoning makes all of the sense. It makes zero sense for you because you imply that the republicans can manipulate the prediction markets easily hehehehe. Have you also witnessed the changes on odds on all of the sportsbooks? Are you also implying that there are republicans around the world who are manipulating these odds also?

However, if you declare that the republicans are manipulating the odds on the all of the sportsbooks and also manipulate the ratings on all of the prediction markets then anyone can also declare that the democrats are manipulating all of the media polls.

[fruktik]

Politicians want to get as many votes as possible. They are willing to use anything to campaign no matter how small the population is. A small amount of votes can be significant to the victory of a candidate. I also suspect that Trump is using the crypto platform to raise funds for his campaign. Major crypto businesses are donating towards his campaign. 

It immediately became obvious that Trump is being assisted by quite influential people who want to see him as president. I also do not rule out the possibility that he has sponsors from abroad. The good thing about crypto is that it is impossible to establish a specific beneficiary of the funds sent. How many different wallets can be used for such purposes? Can they all be tracked? No, it is impossible. This is the reason why Trump uses such a tool in his election campaign.

[yahoo62278]

If Biden and Kamala did very well under their administration, where the people felt some improvement in their lives, would the American people give Trump another chance? I would be very certain that they will not give him another chance.

If most of US citizens think Biden and Kamala improved their lives last four years, they will vote for Kamala to have 4 more years with administration from Democratic Party.

We will know what the US citizens feel about Biden and Harris administration in the next month.

I have yet another scenario, which will probably be 99% of the reason why people vote. Not many people in the world thinks politicians make your world better, we do not like politicians, hell most of us do not even love the people we vote for, but just think the one against who we vote for is even worse and that's why we vote. So maybe, people do not think Biden made the country better, in fact maybe they think he made it worse, but also they think Trump was even worse?

So they may vote for Kamala, thinking she will make the country worse than it is right now, but also voting for her because they think Trump would make it even worse than Kamala could. They are comparing how terrible things will get and voting based on that? I know this feels like a very sad and upsetting reality, but I honestly believe we are seeing this becoming our reality very quickly, this is why it doesn't really feel like it's a new or unique thing, people vote for bad people to avoid evil people.

Trump seems like a person who is just a horrible horrible human being, and his presidency wasn't awesome neither, but more importantly the way he is a terrible human being plays a big role in not voting for him, Kamala on the other hand, could be a worse president, but that doesn't matter to many, because she is not a horrible human being.

People do not like politicians because they are all liars. They run these campaigns during election years and make tons of promises just to get you to look at them and to get your vote, once in office they forget the promises they made and go on about business.

People need to realize that politicians find the general public mostly retarded. That's why you see all these propaganda commercials of each candidate trying to bash the other. They're playing on your emotions and not really discussing the real issues the country might have and how they can/will fix it.

You also need to look at the fact that even when a person takes the office of President, they don't get to start fixing everything. They have to go through the process and nearly everything takes a vote that can be shut down in a few ways.

I personally believe that our vote does not matter. Whomever is in the office is a liar and will do nothing but push their own agenda. For that reason I would vote Trump just for the entertainment factor. The media doesn't give that guy credit for anything as it is controlled by the Dems and their narrative is always to make Republicans look bad.

[OgNasty]

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

[viljy]

It seems to me that such a large advantage of Trump on the Polymarket is quite strange. When the majority bets on the favorite, the "Dark horse" wins - in our case, it is Kamala. And the bets on Trump will lose. The winnings will certainly not be huge, but an almost x1.5 win is quite good, considering that the amounts of the bets there are clearly not small. However, time will tell. Maybe it won't work out that way at all.

[Iranus]

Politicians want to get as many votes as possible. They are willing to use anything to campaign no matter how small the population is. A small amount of votes can be significant to the victory of a candidate. I also suspect that Trump is using the crypto platform to raise funds for his campaign. Major crypto businesses are donating towards his campaign.  

It immediately became obvious that Trump is being assisted by quite influential people who want to see him as president. I also do not rule out the possibility that he has sponsors from abroad. The good thing about crypto is that it is impossible to establish a specific beneficiary of the funds sent. How many different wallets can be used for such purposes? Can they all be tracked? No, it is impossible. This is the reason why Trump uses such a tool in his election campaign.

But which countries will support him when most people know that he is a man who always puts the interests of the United States first and the dominance of the US dollar is always his top priority? In my opinion, most countries are worried that he will win the election, not many countries will support him.

Recently, he once again emphasized that he will impose 100% tariffs on any country that intends to abandon the USD or not use the USD as a reserve. This is not what BRICS members expected. Not to mention, close US allies like NATO will also not be happy if he is elected because of how he treated them during his term in 2016. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have support because according to polymarket, he has a huge advantage over the Democratic candidate in this year's election.

It's really hard to know why he is so pro-crypto, maybe there is some kind of deal between him and crypto companies. But I don't think he accepts foreign donations via crypto because it would be unwise for the Democrats to exploit that. Cryptocurrency transactions are difficult to trace but not all are untraceable.

[freedomgo]

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

I think that just shows most bettors believe Trump will win. Sure, the majority of voters aren't placing bets, but these gambling platforms usually have a better pulse on things than the average voter. So, I don't know what you believe, but I’m leaning towards Trump taking this win.

[tygeade]

I have yet another scenario, which will probably be 99% of the reason why people vote. Not many people in the world thinks politicians make your world better, we do not like politicians, hell most of us do not even love the people we vote for, but just think the one against who we vote for is even worse and that's why we vote. So maybe, people do not think Biden made the country better, in fact maybe they think he made it worse, but also they think Trump was even worse?

So they may vote for Kamala, thinking she will make the country worse than it is right now, but also voting for her because they think Trump would make it even worse than Kamala could. They are comparing how terrible things will get and voting based on that? I know this feels like a very sad and upsetting reality, but I honestly believe we are seeing this becoming our reality very quickly, this is why it doesn't really feel like it's a new or unique thing, people vote for bad people to avoid evil people.

Trump seems like a person who is just a horrible horrible human being, and his presidency wasn't awesome neither, but more importantly the way he is a terrible human being plays a big role in not voting for him, Kamala on the other hand, could be a worse president, but that doesn't matter to many, because she is not a horrible human being.

This is quite true, and not just true between Kamala and Trump, and not just Trump and Biden, or anything this is why I believe we are going to see this in other nations as well. I do not think anyone who votes for anyone at the current world situation ends up voting because we are going to see a great situation when a good candidate ever comes up but even the greatest gets hatred from most people. This is why I believe we can see in Germany, in France, or in UK or wherever else in the world.

This is why I believe we are going to end up with people voting for the terrible people because they fear the other side even worse. I believe we are going to see this election to be exactly like that, we can definitely see people voting for less.

[avp2306]

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

I think that just shows most bettors believe Trump will win. Sure, the majority of voters aren't placing bets, but these gambling platforms usually have a better pulse on things than the average voter. So, I don't know what you believe, but I’m leaning towards Trump taking this win.

But not all gamblers are US voters so this statistics is irrelevant since provably that there are lots of people outside US could able to bet for Trump and with that the percentage or the odds will provably goes in favor with him.

Although I didn't say that we should believe on polls but one thing is for sure that we can see who's strong candidate here when November month came. I'm rooting for politician who support bitcoin to win. Since somehow if the will commit to what he promise to people during in campaign then provably that we as bitcoin  or crypto users would provably benefit for his adaptive attitude.

So things got more exciting as election day is near to happen.

[Smack That Ace]

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

I think that just shows most bettors believe Trump will win. Sure, the majority of voters aren't placing bets, but these gambling platforms usually have a better pulse on things than the average voter. So, I don't know what you believe, but I’m leaning towards Trump taking this win.

But not all gamblers are US voters so this statistics is irrelevant since provably that there are lots of people outside US could able to bet for Trump and with that the percentage or the odds will provably goes in favor with him.

Although I didn't say that we should believe on polls but one thing is for sure that we can see who's strong candidate here when November month came. I'm rooting for politician who support bitcoin to win. Since somehow if the will commit to what he promise to people during in campaign then provably that we as bitcoin  or crypto users would provably benefit for his adaptive attitude.

So things got more exciting as election day is near to happen.

I guess people are relying on the data Polymartket provides and I am also a Trump supporter. But to be fair, that data is unreliable even if only American voters use it to bet on their candidates. Everything remains unknown until the final results of the election are announced as the outcome will depend on the electoral votes, whereas surveys or polls are based only on popular votes. Polls and data provided by gambling sites do not represent the final outcome of the election, we should be realistic and wait and see who will be the final winner.

[Poker Player]

People need to realize that politicians find the general public mostly retarded.

In fact, you are right that all politicians do this, on one side and on the other. It just so happens that the latest example that comes to mind is Obama calling black voters sexist if they don't elect Kamala. I don't know why he hasn't called them racists by the way, anyway. I imagine he hasn't because it would be harder to sneak in.

[baeva]

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

I think that just shows most bettors believe Trump will win. Sure, the majority of voters aren't placing bets, but these gambling platforms usually have a better pulse on things than the average voter. So, I don't know what you believe, but I’m leaning towards Trump taking this win.

But not all gamblers are US voters so this statistics is irrelevant since provably that there are lots of people outside US could able to bet for Trump and with that the percentage or the odds will provably goes in favor with him.

Although I didn't say that we should believe on polls but one thing is for sure that we can see who's strong candidate here when November month came. I'm rooting for politician who support bitcoin to win. Since somehow if the will commit to what he promise to people during in campaign then provably that we as bitcoin  or crypto users would provably benefit for his adaptive attitude.

So things got more exciting as election day is near to happen.

Bitcoin will rise either way, regardless of who is elected as US president. The simple fact is that if Trump wins, it may happen a little faster, but it is not a fact at all, because he may win in November, but he will become president only in January, so there is no difference for Bitcoin who will be president. This is just a small circumstantial reason, nothing more.

[OgNasty]

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

I think that just shows most bettors believe Trump will win. Sure, the majority of voters aren't placing bets, but these gambling platforms usually have a better pulse on things than the average voter. So, I don't know what you believe, but I’m leaning towards Trump taking this win.

But not all gamblers are US voters so this statistics is irrelevant since provably that there are lots of people outside US could able to bet for Trump and with that the percentage or the odds will provably goes in favor with him.

Although I didn't say that we should believe on polls but one thing is for sure that we can see who's strong candidate here when November month came. I'm rooting for politician who support bitcoin to win. Since somehow if the will commit to what he promise to people during in campaign then provably that we as bitcoin  or crypto users would provably benefit for his adaptive attitude.

So things got more exciting as election day is near to happen.

Bitcoin will rise either way, regardless of who is elected as US president. The simple fact is that if Trump wins, it may happen a little faster, but it is not a fact at all, because he may win in November, but he will become president only in January, so there is no difference for Bitcoin who will be president. This is just a small circumstantial reason, nothing more.

It isn’t just about the price rising though. If Kamala decides to continue going to war with crypto, she could make it very difficult to operate a Bitcoin business or even convert funds. Exchanges could be sued or regulated to the point they can’t stay in business. Sure, Bitcoin will be fine, but using Bitcoin will be different between the two candidates.

[STT]

Almost all politics is very close to lying or spinning the facts, very few retain some principles hence why some of the promises given out seem so ridiculously untrue.   Trump but also the other side often get carried away with their claims and end up leaving the realms of any reasonable credibility.   Most people recognize the constant spin and bias put on everything but a few actually believe politics is genuine which is dangerously naive imo.      I dont favor either side, the main problem is the sheer size of government and also then the amounts wasted to only burden people and business its unsustainable.

A couple of times now I hear big business is starting to assume a 'Red sweep' or that Trump is most likely coming back into power.   Why that should be especially certain I dont know, I believe they are assuming far too much.   Business apparently favors the Republican win for the possible tax breaks rather then a continuation or escalation in a higher tax regime.   Business cant vote no matter how much they donate, I dont know that bias is reflected with working people especially in swing states.   Despite some better economic figures, lower inflation people are still struggling so the idea people want to switch is quite feasible but Im not sure to what extent that might be a rising trend bring support to Republican votes.

[TwitchySeal]

Almost all politics is very close to lying or spinning the facts, very few retain some principles hence why some of the promises given out seem so ridiculously untrue.   Trump but also the other side often get carried away with their claims and end up leaving the realms of any reasonable credibility.   Most people recognize the constant spin and bias put on everything but a few actually believe politics is genuine which is dangerously naive imo.      I dont favor either side, the main problem is the sheer size of government and also then the amounts wasted to only burden people and business its unsustainable.

A couple of times now I hear big business is starting to assume a 'Red sweep' or that Trump is most likely coming back into power.   Why that should be especially certain I dont know, I believe they are assuming far too much.   Business apparently favors the Republican win for the possible tax breaks rather then a continuation or escalation in a higher tax regime.   Business cant vote no matter how much they donate, I dont know that bias is reflected with working people especially in swing states.   Despite some better economic figures, lower inflation people are still struggling so the idea people want to switch is quite feasible but Im not sure to what extent that might be a rising trend bring support to Republican votes.

Putting Trump in the same category as literally any other politician when it comes to honesty is like comparing someone with a parking ticket to a convicted serial killer saying 'meh, they both broke the law'.  Works out great for the serial killer every time.

[Kemarit]

It is slightly comical to me that the gambling markets are showing Trump has a 20 point lead while polls I’m seeing on mainstream media are showing Kamala has a slight edge. I guess we’ll see in a month if traditional media had some sort of insight or if they are totally full of shit. I know what I believe…

I think that just shows most bettors believe Trump will win. Sure, the majority of voters aren't placing bets, but these gambling platforms usually have a better pulse on things than the average voter. So, I don't know what you believe, but I’m leaning towards Trump taking this win.

But not all gamblers are US voters so this statistics is irrelevant since provably that there are lots of people outside US could able to bet for Trump and with that the percentage or the odds will provably goes in favor with him.

Although I didn't say that we should believe on polls but one thing is for sure that we can see who's strong candidate here when November month came. I'm rooting for politician who support bitcoin to win. Since somehow if the will commit to what he promise to people during in campaign then provably that we as bitcoin  or crypto users would provably benefit for his adaptive attitude.

So things got more exciting as election day is near to happen.

Bitcoin will rise either way, regardless of who is elected as US president. The simple fact is that if Trump wins, it may happen a little faster, but it is not a fact at all, because he may win in November, but he will become president only in January, so there is no difference for Bitcoin who will be president. This is just a small circumstantial reason, nothing more.

It isn’t just about the price rising though. If Kamala decides to continue going to war with crypto, she could make it very difficult to operate a Bitcoin business or even convert funds. Exchanges could be sued or regulated to the point they can’t stay in business. Sure, Bitcoin will be fine, but using Bitcoin will be different between the two candidates.

Right, we have seen what Biden and potentially Kamala Harris will do if she is elected as the next US president. I mean their party is anti-crypto to the point that everything that relates to win, they wage war on them. So yes, Bitcoin can't be stop by any government, not even the US, however, the bull run might have to be delayed if the elected US president will somewhat be anti-crypto. IMHO.

Of course, we can bet on who we want, if might or might not reflect the right odds, but it's up to the US voters as to who they wanted to get elected, or at least who is the lesser of two evil for them?

[Darker45]

~snip~

Putting Trump in the same category as literally any other politician when it comes to honesty is like comparing someone with a parking ticket to a convicted serial killer saying 'meh, they both broke the law'.  Works out great for the serial killer every time.

That's an interesting analogy which I definitely won't agree. A parking ticket versus a series of murders? That's a bit too much of a difference. Trump may be better than Kamala in one way or another, but it doesn't make him a world different than her. Of course, Kamala is also better than Trump in other ways, but they are of the same feathers. At the end of the day, they're both politicians who are merely after power even if what it takes to grab it is to lie and lie and make false promises.

[EarnOnVictor]

I would argue that the winner of this election on November is not a referendum on whether the people want to give the Donald Trump another chance or not. This will be a referendum of whether the people think that Joe Biden has improved America or not.

This is practically wrong, everything about election and candidacy is subjective, so what voter A is voting for could be different from reason why voter B is voting for a particular candidate. Some will just love Trump or the Republican party without any good reason and vote for him/it, the same thing goes for the opponent. No matter the good you do in the sight of such people, it doesn't count.

If Biden and Kamala did very well under their administration, where the people felt some improvement in their lives, would the American people give Trump another chance? I would be very certain that they will not give him another chance.

Division is in the US and Trump is leveraging on that. There's division in race, international policies and responses, immigration, cryptocurrency and many others. Whether Biden's administration did best or not, for the fact that there are divisions, it will always separate voters, it's not about your performance alone.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I guess people are relying on the data Polymartket provides and I am also a Trump supporter. But to be fair, that data is unreliable even if only American voters use it to bet on their candidates. Everything remains unknown until the final results of the election are announced as the outcome will depend on the electoral votes, whereas surveys or polls are based only on popular votes. Polls and data provided by gambling sites do not represent the final outcome of the election, we should be realistic and wait and see who will be the final winner.

Before, I saw the polls as very reliable, talking about 10 or 15 years ago, but in reality things are not that way anymore I think that now the polls from any provider are not reliable, and that is slaog that can be seen from a mile away. However, the polarization that exists in the USA is too great, each of the candidates has their followers, their fans, but in this case there are many things that favor Trump, for example, the blatant measure of the government powers trying to silence him through accusations, attempting assassinations, everything indicates that they are afraid of Trump. So if they were not afraid of him, would they do all that?

[STT]

All presidents have to make decisions daily that will lead to deaths or not.   Even just natural disaster or mass economics, at some point you are talking about people starving or not.   In a country this size despite being wealthy in parts, that constant choice is inevitable.

Add in that USA is by far the largest army etc. involved in many conflicts at least indirectly its true of all in politics that they have blood on their hands and I dont mean they are to blame exactly but all actions have consequences at that level.

'meh, they both broke the law'.

Im thinking every president since Nixon has broken the law in some regard.  The problem is the law like people is not perfect, the supreme court decision recently may have mystified people in somehow covering Trump from charges but Im not that surprised and I think all recent presidents have faced legal challenges serious and involving life or death in many cases.
   We've all heard many times President <name> is a war criminal, so I do think its naive to believe one party is superior to the other in their worst failures in policy, in actions both deliberate and mistakes made.   

I do keep hearing Trump has a lead in this race and that is a surprise to me, I've said for most of this year this election is the Democrats to lose they have the strong bias of being mid way in what should be at least a 2 term tenure.  I know we have Harris now and the poll lead she had is being described as slipping, quite surprising though she would be the first women etc.