2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[dezoel]

Looking at the results we are going to see the situation not changing anytime soon, we are looking at an election that will be decided on the election day. Literally on election day where whoever ends up showing up will decide on the elections.

Both sides have enough votes to win this election, meaning that whoever ends up getting the most voters turn out for the current situation that means we are going to end up with winner based on just that. The margins are smaller than anything else I have seen so far. Every single close state is within 1% and that is the most important situation.

I believe we are going to see this not changing anytime soon and we are going to see this be the most important part. This is why I believe we are going to have some trouble, thing about the current 1% margins is it's within the margin of error for polls as well. Odds are showing close in all the centralized ones too, just decentralized ones are having a gap.

[Kavelj22]

Most of the comments in this thread discuss the chances of each of the main candidates in this election, but there is no mention of the campaign budgets of each candidate, which include assistance from prominent supporters.

Today I came across a newspaper article published on October 17, two days ago, that explains the difference in donations received by each candidate, taking into account that Kamala Harris entered the election race late after Joe Biden withdrew.

The article explains that according to Politico magazine, Elon Musk has pumped nearly $75 million into his political action committee to support the Republican candidate’s campaign in the US presidential elections, over a period of 3 months. Other conservative billionaires have also reportedly poured huge sums into Trump’s reelection effort, with Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson’s $95 million donation to another leading pro-Trump super PAC, Preserve America, accounting for nearly all of the money it raised during the July-September quarter. Adelson and her late husband Sheldon were among the biggest donors to Republican candidates. Wyoming bank heir Timothy Mellon donated $125 million this cycle to Make America Great Again, a popular super PAC. Other Trump supporters who contributed big during the third quarter include the former Marvel billionaire and his wife Laura, who donated nearly $5 million late last month to the pro-Trump super PAC Right for America.

In contrast, Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party have outraised former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party in combined fundraising over the past three months, according to other sources. The Harris Victory Fund and the Harris Action Fund, the joint fundraising committees between the Harris campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and state Democratic Party committees, raised $652 million between July and September of this year.

The same article says that sources familiar with the matter told NBC that Harris has raised $1 billion in total since entering the race in late July after President Joe Biden dropped out, marking a significant fundraising milestone for her campaign against Republican rival Donald Trump.

I think these numbers are important to consider for both candidates, especially since there is a well-known influencer on the list of supporters who are able to influence voters in swing states.

[TwitchySeal]

They aren't being 'imported' and it's fucked up to dehumanize people like that. Especially people fleeing from places like Haiti and Venezuela.  I'd bet you'd feel a lot differently if you and your family and happened to be born in a country like that.

It's also fucked up to act like they're lying about fleeing Haiti and Venezuela for their own safety.  I supposed thinking of them like they're animals makes it a lot easier though.

And blaming immigrants for the dysfunctional US immigration system is as dumb as it sounds.  

In most cases, crossing the border illegally means walking into border patrol building at the border, being interviewed and processed, and then and then being allowed into the country.

If you're from somewhere like Haiti, like the people in Ohio that Trump has been lying about, you can get approved quickly and literally take a commercial flight in.  

My  focus was not on the CHNV program, which allowed around 400,000 people to immigrate legally. On the other hand, I was more concerned about the 12 million who are in the United States illegally. It is not fair to have people just jumping the fence, when law abiding visitors need to spend huge amount of money and wait for 18 to 24 months to get their visa processed. And AFAIK, almost half of these illegal immigrants are from Mexico. There was a drug war going on for a few years, but things are back to normal there. There is no justification to give any special status to Mexican illegals.

Read my post again.  They aren't jumping the fence (in most cases).

In most cases, crossing the border illegally means walking into border patrol building at the border, being interviewed and processed, and then and then being allowed into the country.

[doomloop]

I am not saying that casinos are manipulating and controlling us. But have you found that there are more losers than winners when it comes to gambling or financial games? The win-loss ratio is not only 50-50, if you bet a large amount of money, your loss ratio can even be up to 99%.

I agree with you, obviously those numbers are not shown because they are Actually the ones that would harm the site , however there is the most legal and that everyone Knows as the house advantage , you can say a probability and statistic only in Trading that for me is more than 95% of people who lose and that in trading , now in the game the statistics must be 99% of those who lose , so in this case they do leave a margin for some Winners , but in itself I am sure that any Casino if it wants to manipulate it will do so and it is very difficult to discover ,  you just have to trust in the ethics and in the reputation and confidence of the major casinos.

The reason why we have polls and odds be this current situation is because we are going to end up with a lot more trouble and because of this the difference makes sense for some people.

The reason why there is a gap between odds and polls is because Trump polls very very badly, meaning, whatever he gets on polls, he gets a lot more on elections, this has been true for both elections so far, and people are waiting for the same as well. Meaning, right now all the polls are showing battleground states to be just a thin margin Trump winning, and this means, people are saying if polls are showing Trump winning battleground states by a thin margin on polls, then it means he is leading by a big margin in reality, based on two previous elections.

[Hispo]

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The reason why there is a gap between odds and polls is because Trump polls very very badly, meaning, whatever he gets on polls, he gets a lot more on elections, this has been true for both elections so far, and people are waiting for the same as well...

He is polling worse than he is going in the betting markets because the first scenario is about asking people how they intend to vote, while the betting market is how people believe the election is going to turn out in a few days. In short, people who put their money where they mouth is are more confident Trump is going to get elected than the average person who does not necessarily bets but is going to vote this next November.
Also, I would not give as much credit to polls, the past two elections (including the midterm election) showed to be a disappointed in the eyes of the Republican party, while in the polls it was predicted they were going to defeat the democrat party very badly.

So far, Trump's seems to be the favorite one. I am just curious to see whether Kamala will change her stand on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency or she will stick to the Biden agenda.

[alani123]

He is polling worse than he is going in the betting markets because the first scenario is about asking people how they intend to vote, while the betting market is how people believe the election is going to turn out in a few days. In short, people who put their money where they mouth is are more confident Trump is going to get elected than the average person who does not necessarily bets but is going to vote this next November.
Also, I would not give as much credit to polls, the past two elections (including the midterm election) showed to be a disappointed in the eyes of the Republican party, while in the polls it was predicted they were going to defeat the democrat party very badly.

So far, Trump's seems to be the favorite one. I am just curious to see whether Kamala will change her stand on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency or she will stick to the Biden agenda.

Well let's admit it though, polling tries to get a representative sample while betting just takes anyone's money and balances out the odds.
People that bet aren't going care about representation. In fact, since there's a stark difference between the two parties in terms of educational background, I'd venture to guess that more Trump fans are actually betting than Democrats. Given that the election is so close by all other accounts, bettors will of course pick their favorite. Especially if there's a lack of other evidence to show one candidate having an edge.

If you go to polymarket now and take a screen shot  of their map, I'll bet you a couple of bucks they'll make bad predictions on at least a couple of states.

Actually, here I took the screenshot myself:

[cabron]

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

[ChiBitCTy]

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

I'm not sure if you're an American or not, but anyone being unbiased who follows closely, and coming from a true down the middle Independent here, it sure does not seem like the case.  I mean I will admit that it's going to be damn close, and all of the polls have them neck and neck, but there's absolutely no clear consensus what so ever. 

On top of that, Kamala has progressed as her campaign has gone on.  Joe Biden had no chance, Kamala does.. I'm starting to think I wont be this time around, it's just so damn close.

[tread93]

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

Trump has to win, for the fate of America at this point lol. Things are bad, reallllly bad! Just like Trump said that Biden would take this country's economy to the shitter and practically turn us into a 3rd world country its insane what is happening. If only most people used their eyes and ears and senses to see how bad of a state America is in then they would come to their wits and vote Republican

[bbc.reporter]

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

I'm not sure if you're an American or not, but anyone being unbiased who follows closely, and coming from a true down the middle Independent here, it sure does not seem like the case.  I mean I will admit that it's going to be damn close, and all of the polls have them neck and neck, but there's absolutely no clear consensus what so ever. 

On top of that, Kamala has progressed as her campaign has gone on.  Joe Biden had no chance, Kamala does.. I'm starting to think I wont be this time around, it's just so damn close.

I reckon that what you might be feeling might also be the effect of mainstream media manipulation and what we might be witnessing on the prediction markets and sportsbooks might be the effect of people betting on Trump because they know that there is a media manipulation being done. They are contrarians heheheh.

If this election is very close, I speculate that the team that can cheat more will be the victorious team. This might be Kamala's team because being the administration, they control much of the machinery.

[TwitchySeal]

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

Trump has to win, for the fate of America at this point lol. Things are bad, reallllly bad! Just like Trump said that Biden would take this country's economy to the shitter and practically turn us into a 3rd world country its insane what is happening. If only most people used their eyes and ears and senses to see how bad of a state America is in then they would come to their wits and vote Republican

Except its the strongest economy in the world.  Best economic recovery from convid in the world.  Inflation under control, unemployment low, gdp growth solid...the economy has exceeded expectations on all fronts with the only exception really being housing prices.  

[bitgolden]

Will the Democrats expel her or will the Democrats be expelled by the people ? While the Democrats and the Biden administration are not crypto-friendly , this could change over time. In other words, they need to adapt to the crowd. If crypto gets a lot of support from the people and voters, but if they continue to maintain anti-crypto policies, which means they are going against the voters ,  they will not get any benefits . So I think they won't be able to maintain that view for much longer .

I am a Trump supporter and want him to win but to be fair we have no guarantee that he supports crypto or is just using it to increase votes .  Nothing can be said for sure until the election is over.


https://cryptoslate.com/harris-explicitly-announces-support-for-crypto-just-weeks-before-election/

This is the type of news that grinds my gears a lot. Kamala Harris never came out and said "oh I love bitcoin, I have so much bitcoin myself, love it lol" type of thing, she is a presidential candidate, she is not a moron, she talks within boundaries of the law. She has been saying since day 1, she thinks it's fine but within law and she is giving SEC power to control all the scams and illegality happening. This is what we have seen in four years so far with Biden too.

All those "with hunt" news about crypto, is all about how people did not follow the law, check everyone in the past four years that had any trouble with law regarding crypto, and you will see they did not follow the law correctly and that's why they got punishment, btu because they were crypto people and punished, the news in crypto world shared it as "crypto people are being hunted!!!!", what did you expect, Kamala and Biden to let these people break the law? Of course not.

She still has the same idea, you and I doing ok if we follow the law, and the guy who breaks the law gets caught and punished, this has been the last four years and if she wins then it will be next four years, there is nothing different.

Just because Trump talks about crypto a lot, doesn't mean Kamala is against it or started to be in favour of it, she had a stance about crypto for the past four years, and still has the same ideas, as long as you follow the law, crypto is fine.

[mindrust]

Trump is winning thanks god. I was afraid of another fuck up but I guess Americans still had some common sense left in them. 2020 was not supposed to happen (some say the election was stolen too) and I guess this time they are going to make it right. Kabala's ratings drop dramatically after her FOX News interview. Such a clueless person. Way worse than Biden.

They say KabalA is younger than Trump and that a plus for her... It is actually the other way around. Kabala looked like a demented fool mumbling random shit during the Fox News interview while Trump is like a machine gun ready for anything anytime and that includes assassination attempts. Go Trump

[cabron]

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

Trump has to win, for the fate of America at this point lol. Things are bad, reallllly bad! Just like Trump said that Biden would take this country's economy to the shitter and practically turn us into a 3rd world country its insane what is happening. If only most people used their eyes and ears and senses to see how bad of a state America is in then they would come to their wits and vote Republican

Except its the strongest economy in the world.  Best economic recovery from convid in the world.  Inflation under control, unemployment low, gdp growth solid...the economy has exceeded expectations on all fronts with the only exception really being housing prices.  

If it is just Trump 2.20 and Harris 2.10, I think it will be just something that people will just consider a few hundred votes away and either of them who will win is not something to suspect something went wrong to the transmission of votes. But the current odds seem obvious.

I'm not sure what you mean about the strongest economy. Economists are aware of what is happening, some of them turned into a prepper already building bunkers because they know what is coming.

[Saint-loup]

If it is just Trump 2.20 and Harris 2.10, I think it will be just something that people will just consider a few hundred votes away and either of them who will win is not something to suspect something went wrong to the transmission of votes. But the current odds seem obvious.

I'm not sure what you mean about the strongest economy. Economists are aware of what is happening, some of them turned into a prepper already building bunkers because they know what is coming.

If we could have those odds somewhere I think anyone would bet on this market because it would mean that you can't lose money. You would get 220-100=$120 (that is to say $20 won) for a victory of Trump while betting $100 on him and on her, and you would get 210-100=$110 (ie $10 won) for a victory of Kamala Harris. So it would be what we call a sure bet actually.
Regarding Kamala I watched a bit his meeting yesterday on Twitch, and she's clearly not good as Trump for this exercise contrary to the debate IMO.

[o48o]

^ By the looks of it, it seems Trump is going to win. Obama didn't help but just upset the black community and Kamala's CNN interview just made her polls worse.

It's already interesting to go to Polymarket but I have not tried it yet, the betting platforms today seem to act like more of the traditional platform and Polymarket is the new one.

Donald Trump 1.68
Kamala Harris 2.35

Only thing this actually reflects to, is that most of the gamblers believe that trump wins. People seem to think that this is some kind of objective poll and that the userbase would be representing everyone.

I also have thought that some whales, like elon could be playing just to manipulate the press. It would actually sound like something he would do. And by quick googling, some others agrees this theory.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-whale-trump-odds-manipulation

[alani123]

I don't think that Kamala Harris will suddenly change her attitude towards crypto, remember that she is affiliated democratic party, which has a hard line stance against crypto. If she made a U-turn then most likely she is going to be expelled by her party.

But Trump and his political party as what they say, they are pro-Bitcoin or pro-crypto themselves. That's why he take advantage of Bitcoiners in the US, but not sure if they are going to vote for him. Although so far, Trump is leading in the polls or at least favored in the betting sites.

Will the Democrats expel her or will the Democrats be expelled by the people ? While the Democrats and the Biden administration are not crypto-friendly , this could change over time. In other words, they need to adapt to the crowd. If crypto gets a lot of support from the people and voters, but if they continue to maintain anti-crypto policies, which means they are going against the voters ,  they will not get any benefits . So I think they won't be able to maintain that view for much longer .

I am a Trump supporter and want him to win but to be fair we have no guarantee that he supports crypto or is just using it to increase votes .  Nothing can be said for sure until the election is over.


https://cryptoslate.com/harris-explicitly-announces-support-for-crypto-just-weeks-before-election/

I honestly don't think this is going to go well for Kamla.

She should have simply stuck with her original promises. Crypto is a nothingburger for her voter base. She's hoping to get voters that don't care about her platform in the first place. People can see through hypocrisy like this. Big crypto investors and companies have been asking for clear regulation instead of lawsuits by the SEC. And let's not lie, Trump's administration failed at that as well. They let states be overly restrictive due to unclear regulation on the federal level and let the landscape be very uncertain from a state to state level.

Things for Crypto were more stable under Biden. The problem was lack of customer protection regulation in the first place. That's how we got FTX, Celsius etc. We don't need presidential support for crypto and I think Kamala fails to get that. We just need clear rules, clear enforcement and authorities that actually protect the consumer, not just the big guys in banks.

[el kaka22]

Expelled from her party? What kind of dream are you guys on* She is the presidential candidate of the party, and she is liked enough to be literally nominee without even having nomination battle with other candidates, she was literally given the nomination for free by the party without ever needing to go against any other party member. That is the most ultimate ever party support you can ever see, nobody had any say in this but the party officials.

Normally when there is a candidacy, like how Biden did, you end up with states all over the nation voting for who should be the candidate, Kamala didn't need that and party just backed her. So believe me when I say this, Kamala has the backing of the party more than any other person in the party and she will be fine, nobody cares about her crypto stance as much as you think.

[STT]

I still dont believe Trump is actually going to win it.  That poll just looks biased to me, they got obligation in law to be totally accurate.   Sure they cant put out fake data or in a deliberate way be biased but it seems these polls can be wildly off.

I'm going with 50/50 outcome still and if someone offers me those odds on Harris and I can place the bet I'm likely to go for it at this point.  Either party could take it still is my take till I can decide otherwise.   Not because I know Harris wins but purely on a good value vs prospects bet I would think thats fair tbh.  Nothing much will change at this point really.

[alani123]

I still dont believe Trump is actually going to win it.  That poll just looks biased to me, they got obligation in law to be totally accurate.   Sure they cant put out fake data or in a deliberate way be biased but it seems these polls can be wildly off.

I'm going with 50/50 outcome still and if someone offers me those odds on Harris and I can place the bet I'm likely to go for it at this point.  Either party could take it still is my take till I can decide otherwise.   Not because I know Harris wins but purely on a good value vs prospects bet I would think thats fair tbh.  Nothing much will change at this point really.

I kinda somewhat agree because in the last few days it's normal for the polling to close in on the two candidates as more people become decided but now so many states are showing an EVEN match. It can't be that all these people are going for Trump in states Kamala had a lead in.

So I'm suspicious. All these polls that were pumped out in the last few days may very well have been over exaggerating the effect of Trump's rise. This had made Democrats rest easy and in the end they lost the 2016 election. So I'd say we should not rely on polls too much. But then again the betting markets seem even more biased even than that.

I think many trump fans are forgetting that all those swing state still allow mail-in voting since 2020 and it's most likely that most of the mail-in voters will be voting Democrat. Democrats have been calling for more people to vote this year and I'm pretty sure they'll have some success at it. I think increased turnout and mail-in ballots is something many pollsters fail to account for. If we see an even further increase of turnout surely Democrats are going to perform well in battleground states.