2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Haunebu]

I think it is still a bit 50/50 from what I've seen.

It really depends on the source of the polls, many of them support one or the other candidate.

Not sure what will happen in the election, but I'm pretty sure it will be massive, and a very close race.

Maybe even some random event that will change the whole thing, yet again.

Well said. These republican supporters are clearly voicing their support for that clown loudly in Polymarket and within this forum a lot more often recently which is simply silly to say the least.

Am supporting Harris, but I can clearly see that it's still 50:50 between them. This particular election is easily the most chaotic one that I have witnessed so far.

[hedgeh0g]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

Better than any surveys and polls, watch the bets that are made with money, they will definitely not deceive and are the most accurate. For example, prediction markets such as polymarket or kalshi. I often go there to monitor probabilities. You have probably seen how other users on our forum often mention this. Nevertheless, there was an attempt to ban them at the legislative level in the US this spring. I would not like this. I want to say that Trump is currently leading with a probability of 53% and volumes of more than $ 1.5 billion. Nevertheless, there is still time before the election to tip the scales in one direction or another. It is no secret that candidates have professionals who are trying to convince voters to vote for their candidate. I think the whole world is watching this.

[STT]

Betting each by each state result would be much easier then guessing the overall sum total but its the total that matters.

What they should really do if serious about polling is ignore the big safe states for counting popular vote.   We can already assume the Democratic party has the majority of the popular vote.   If there was a recession, if oil goes to $120 by election day then sure it could alter alot but I dont think Trump has a majority secured but also he doesnt have to.

He might have the electoral college, surprising but possible just about.   The polls should assess constantly the state of votes in all the swing states, its under 10 states where it can go either way as I understand it.   Even 10 states it would be hard to survey enough people to get an accurate poll but thats what they should be doing, just asking people in cali or nyc is easy to do but comparatively no new information.

The last thing I'd mention though we havent forgot the 2020 election was right in the middle of a pandemic.  It can easily be different this time beyond expectations just because the setup is really not the same either.

[summonerrk]

I can't even imagine what would have to happen for me to believe that Harris would be elected president. How could she go out and give a speech when her head was completely empty? Without a prompter, she repeated so comically that there were 32 days left until the election! She resembled a student who forgot his cheat sheet at home and now all she can do is repeat the same thought. At the same time, I like the way Trump speaks.

[TwitchySeal]

I can't even imagine what would have to happen for me to believe that Harris would be elected president. How could she go out and give a speech when her head was completely empty? Without a prompter, she repeated so comically that there were 32 days left until the election! She resembled a student who forgot his cheat sheet at home and now all she can do is repeat the same thought. At the same time, I like the way Trump speaks.

I think you're mixing up the two candidates.  Harris is not the orange one.

Question:

"Will you commit to prioritizing legislation to make child care affordable?"

Trump:

“Well, I would do that, and we’re sitting down. You know, I was somebody — we had, Senator Marco Rubio, and my daughter Ivanka, was so impactful on that issue. It’s a very important issue.

"But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I’m talking about — that, because look, child care is child care, couldn’t — you know, there’s something — you have to have it in this country. You have to have it. But when you talk about those numbers, compared to the kind of numbers that I’m talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels that they’re not used to. But they’ll get used to it very quickly. And it’s not going to stop them from doing business with us. But they’ll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. Those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers that we’re talking about, including child care, that it’s going to take care. We’re going to have — I look forward to having no deficits within a fairly short period of time, coupled with the reductions that I told you about on waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country.

"Because I have to stay with child care. I want to stay with child care. But those numbers are small relative to the kind of economic numbers that I’m talking about, including growth, but growth also headed up by what the plan is that I just — that I just told you about. We’re going to be taking in trillions of dollars. And as much as child care is talked about as being expensive, it’s, relatively speaking, not very expensive compared to the kind of numbers will be taking in.

"We’re going to make this into an incredible country that can afford to take care of its people. And then we’ll worry about the rest of the world. Let’s help other people. But we’re going to take care of our country first. This is about America first. It’s about make America great again. We have to do it because right now, we’re a failing nation. So we’ll take care of it. Thank you. Very good question. Thank you.”

[baeva]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

Domestic polls - I think they can be more or less trusted, but bets on Polymarket are not limited to a certain geographical location, it is a decentralised platform, so the share of Americans who bet there is definitely not great, it is more like bets and expectations of people from the world of cryptocurrencies, which in the end will not be able to influence the election in any way

[Hispo]

I can't even imagine what would have to happen for me to believe that Harris would be elected president. How could she go out and give a speech when her head was completely empty? Without a prompter, she repeated so comically that there were 32 days left until the election! She resembled a student who forgot his cheat sheet at home and now all she can do is repeat the same thought. At the same time, I like the way Trump speaks.

Could you please link to the video of such speech? I am interested in watching it.
As for her political skills when comes to speeches and debates, it seems obvious to me she is the kind of person who needs to have some previous preparation before facing the press and questions from a debate moderator, like during the debate she had facing Donald Trump some weeks ago. without that preparation, she is basically a little bit lost in her own thoughts and may not even know what to say to appeal to the public she has in the front of her.

Regardless of the social and cognitive status of both of them, the United States are going to choose again between the lesser of two evils on 5th November. It is not how American democracy is supposed to work, but it is the way the establishment and big corporations have chosen for the people, the latter has clearly lost control over the selection of nominees 

[Docnaster]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

With Donald Trump's recent engagements in cryptocurrency, the crypto community are fully in support of the Republican Party candidate. Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party is expected to give Trump a run for his money but it's my wish that Trump succeeds at the end of the poll. Nov. 5th like you rightly said will be an important day for not just people of the US but everyone that's involved in crypto because the result of that very election will have a big effect on crypto market. 

[wheelz1200]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

With Donald Trump's recent engagements in cryptocurrency, the crypto community are fully in support of the Republican Party candidate. Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party is expected to give Trump a run for his money but it's my wish that Trump succeeds at the end of the poll. Nov. 5th like you rightly said will be an important day for not just people of the US but everyone that's involved in crypto because the result of that very election will have a big effect on crypto market. 

I don't believe either one of them.  They say things all the time to gain the market of that stance.  In this case crypto, they want the votes of everyone who is pro crypto, knowing there isn't a strong hatred for it it's smart and won't lose him votes.  For me I will believe it when I see it.  Politicians are slimy and go back on theor word all the time.  Wouldn't be surprised if he outlawed it and just brush it off since he already got the votes.

[alani123]

Howard Stern recently did an interview with Harris and I found a sound bite that was initially posted on Reddit. I captured it here if you want to listen to it yourself.

Essentially Stern gives a pass to Kalama to answer a direct attack on Trump by saying he would have never imagine a republican wanting to disassemble NATO.
Which is a false statement to begin with.

But of course it would not be in Kamala's interest to debunk this lie as it's a lie against her opponent in the presidential race. So she goes on about how good NATO is... I mean, let here believe whatever she wants about NATO. The facts speak for themselves and in the age of information people can form their own opinions. But even besides that, it's so weird that Democrats are complaining that the republican playbook changed. So to them, it's bad that Trump adopted a few popular opinions when talking about NATO?

I guess Kamala is really worried she has to respond to queries that are out of the ordinary for the US two party system and their systemic approach to everything.
Trump is right to criticize NATO's interventionist policies and this has been an issue recognized worldwide actually. It's a very pragmatic view. And moreover, the American people don't have it in their interest to institute gerime changes in every corner of the world. If no intervention or at best peace deals can be done, it's much better than spending billions for foreign wars.

Trump could really crush this Rhetoric Kamala has like he crushed Hillary in 2016 as a warmonger. I wish he would because it'd be so satisfying seeing Kamala take back this rhetoric that she made up on her own without asking the people's opinion.

[Hispo]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

Not all the politics within the United States has to do with cryptocurrency and whether the sitting president is more or less pro-Bitcoin than their predecessor. I don't think it would be a good strategy to choose someone who has obvious authoritarian traits and has tried to overturn a fair election just because he says he likes Bitcoin and cryptocurrency now.
In reality, Donald Trump does not anything about Bitcoin and what values holders stand for, to begin with.
He has been getting closer to the Bitcoin community and the crypto commubity as a whole because he sees some political advantage in it, in order to defeat Kamala Harris, the latter's belongs to a political faction which has been aggressive against Bitcoin mining and decentralization, but deed within the Republican party does not stand for Bitcoin either.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Not all the politics within the United States has to do with cryptocurrency and whether the sitting president is more or less pro-Bitcoin than their predecessor. I don't think it would be a good strategy to choose someone who has obvious authoritarian traits and has tried to overturn a fair election just because he says he likes Bitcoin and cryptocurrency now.
In reality, Donald Trump does not anything about Bitcoin and what values holders stand for, to begin with.
He has been getting closer to the Bitcoin community and the crypto commubity as a whole because he sees some political advantage in it, in order to defeat Kamala Harris, the latter's belongs to a political faction which has been aggressive against Bitcoin mining and decentralization, but deed within the Republican party does not stand for Bitcoin either.

Well, I am familiar with a few pro-bitcoin Republicans such as Ted Cruz or Cynthia Lummis but I agree that the fact that Trump has approached bitcoin in this election campaign, which he has done out of purely electoral interest, should not make people decide to vote for him but rather take into account other reasons like the ones you mention to see whether it is worth voting for him or Kamala.

[bbc.reporter]

Harris still ahead of that old fart Trump who wants to fire out all sencible Americans  and put on their places the   bastards similar to him. She is steadily building her momentum across all walk of America's life and what I like most is that the  young generations support her visions for future  rather then Trump's ones. I have put my bet on Harris win.

This should be a cause for the gamblers on the election speculate and inquire who is making the mistake? Is this the pollsters or the oddsmakers of the sportsbooks and the participants of the prediction markets? The oddsmakers presently have Trump on 1.83 and Kamala on 1.99. Polymarket participants presently have Trump on 53.6% and Kamala on 45.8%. The money speaking through the sportsbooks and Polymarket is very much not telling us a similar storyline as the pollsters heheheheh. However, if the money speaking through the sportsbooks and the prediction markets are wrong, this might certainly be a good bet for Kamala if you will bet her right now heheheh.

[summonerrk]

I can't even imagine what would have to happen for me to believe that Harris would be elected president. How could she go out and give a speech when her head was completely empty? Without a prompter, she repeated so comically that there were 32 days left until the election! She resembled a student who forgot his cheat sheet at home and now all she can do is repeat the same thought. At the same time, I like the way Trump speaks.

I think you're mixing up the two candidates.  Harris is not the orange one.

Nope. I'm not mixing anything at all.

https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/06/watch-kamala-harris-melts-down-after-teleprompter-malfunctions-at-rally/

I can't even imagine what would have to happen for me to believe that Harris would be elected president. How could she go out and give a speech when her head was completely empty? Without a prompter, she repeated so comically that there were 32 days left until the election! She resembled a student who forgot his cheat sheet at home and now all she can do is repeat the same thought. At the same time, I like the way Trump speaks.

Could you please link to the video of such speech? I am interested in watching it.
As for her political skills when comes to speeches and debates, it seems obvious to me she is the kind of person who needs to have some previous preparation before facing the press and questions from a debate moderator, like during the debate she had facing Donald Trump some weeks ago. without that preparation, she is basically a little bit lost in her own thoughts and may not even know what to say to appeal to the public she has in the front of her.

Regardless of the social and cognitive status of both of them, the United States are going to choose again between the lesser of two evils on 5th November. It is not how American democracy is supposed to work, but it is the way the establishment and big corporations have chosen for the people, the latter has clearly lost control over the selection of nominees  

Sure, my friend, I found it. You can find the link to this video here:

https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/06/watch-kamala-harris-melts-down-after-teleprompter-malfunctions-at-rally/

There is an article about the funny incident I described and it has a video attached from Twitter from Trump War Room and also from Greg Price.
And this video looks very funny
She is like a student taking an exam who doesn't know what to say.

[nullama]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

The reality is that Bitcoin will continue to generate more blocks every roughly 10 minutes, independent of who wins t the election of the us, or even if there is a massive civil war, or mostly anything really.

Bitcoin is extremely resilient and every day that passes makes it even more so.

It has been a long time since it was a fragile new thing. It os now independent of any country

[Jating]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

The reality is that Bitcoin will continue to generate more blocks every roughly 10 minutes, independent of who wins t the election of the us, or even if there is a massive civil war, or mostly anything really.

Bitcoin is extremely resilient and every day that passes makes it even more so.

It has been a long time since it was a fragile new thing. It os now independent of any country

Definitely, our world will continue to move regardless of who is going to win the US election. But I do have to point out that since US is a superpower, who knows, maybe a Bitcoin or crypto President (assuming Trump wins and he did promise to be a pro-crypto), might iron out Bitcoin's image.

As opposed to what Biden did when he was the President, and most likely Kamala Harris will also just continue what his President did, going to be anti-crypto or not putting it in their agenda. So it's about who is the lesser evil as far as crypto market goes.

[jaberwock]

Better than any surveys and polls, watch the bets that are made with money, they will definitely not deceive and are the most accurate. For example, prediction markets such as polymarket or kalshi. I often go there to monitor probabilities. You have probably seen how other users on our forum often mention this. Nevertheless, there was an attempt to ban them at the legislative level in the US this spring. I would not like this. I want to say that Trump is currently leading with a probability of 53% and volumes of more than $ 1.5 billion. Nevertheless, there is still time before the election to tip the scales in one direction or another. It is no secret that candidates have professionals who are trying to convince voters to vote for their candidate. I think the whole world is watching this.

While I do agree that polls are never good, and they are just calling people up, which could be a wrong way for learning about the situation, I also doubt betting is true neither. One reason, because this is a p2p one, meaning if I am a moron that has 50 million to throw, I can make any of them look like they are winning, makes no sense to go with that.

Odd providers are fine though, because in that case it is not p2p, it is you against some sports bookie basically, and they will not want to lose, and they will arrange it better. So no pools, no p2p markets, look at places like stake and similar other websites, they will show you which one is leading, because they are betting their balance to it, and they need the favourite to win, so they will not pay up something high. These days they are very close or even tied at some days and this definitely shows how great we are going with this, we shouldn't really be bothered by it and look for something further in the end as well.

[Marvell1]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.

The reality is that Bitcoin will continue to generate more blocks every roughly 10 minutes, independent of who wins t the election of the us, or even if there is a massive civil war, or mostly anything really.

Bitcoin is extremely resilient and every day that passes makes it even more so.

It has been a long time since it was a fragile new thing. It os now independent of any country

The truth is that bitcoin's existence is not dependent on any country and it would still exist even if the US banned it but that would definitely slow down its growth for years.

Don't forget that the United States is the world's financial center accounting for almost 50% of the financial market capitalization and Bitcoin is also a part of this market. As you can see in just a few short months, ETFs have accumulated nearly 1 million bitcoins and are about to surpass the number of satoshis held. Also, for bitcoin to grow, we need money to flow into the market, and the flow of money into the market is entirely dependent on US monetary policy...Overall, they play an important role and can have a significant impact on the development of bitcoin. It is no coincidence that the entire world economy depends on them, let alone a small asset like bitcoin that can escape them. So don't underestimate their role in the development of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry.


The election may not have a significant impact on bitcoin but their policies will have a significant impact on the future of bitcoin.

[STT]

Trump is right to criticize NATO's interventionist policies and this has been an issue recognized worldwide actually. It's a very pragmatic view.

War is costly and USA should be using the money on more productive measures such as those in bad health who die from lack of basic health care.   Thats a standing point, easily true but Im not sure its an easy solution as Ukraine and other places in the world represent instability which certainly will affect USA in some way.   

If its true USA is a finance centre for the world its also true the prospects are altered by failure around the world.   Theres alot also of business selling those products used in war with employees part of the USA economy, its no simple matter really.    The main campaign by either party in this election is to sell a simple measure of failure by the other side, they rarely go into the details because details are messy and constantly changing.

Harris as part of Biden's term will fail to be elected if Biden's action are seen as worse then Trump's 4 years even if neither leader is the real reason for the economic figures etc.  Its likely they carry that label anyway, Harris speaks as if new to stage and the Trump campaign wants to make sure people dont forget or forgive any past mistake.

  The only difference I can see between them is Harris is in power today and liable for the failures true right now and Trump can shrug it off as more in the past.  Whether people buy that stance I dont know.

[satscraper]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.

My view is opposite. Should Trump be elected he would fleece us of all our crypto as it his nature to betray people who believe in his promises. He may be on the ball when gives promisses at public but  in the reality most of them remain ether not enacted and broken  or compromised ^{(crypto is his previous  Mexico's wall, where it is?)}. I don't trust his crypto-promise and besides of this crypto is nothing compared with the chasm between the haves and the have-nots  which would wait America should he be elected.