2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[satscraper]

In my opinion, we are currently witnessing a crisis of the democratic election system.

How did it happen that in such a large country as the United States there were no younger candidates for President of the United States than Joe Biden and Donald Trump?!

How did such a powerful country as the United States come to gerontocracy? Kamala Harris is much younger than Biden and Trump. But she, in my opinion, is a primitive person who does not have strategic thinking.

Perhaps her actions are secretly controlled by people unknown to us, the gray cardinals of American politics. If we approach this whole situation from the point of view of gambling, then we need to focus on the average American voter, and this is a much more primitive person than the participants of the Bitcointalk forum. The constantly laughing Kamala Harris, in my opinion, has a better chance of being elected to the post of President of the United States than Donald Trump.

The principle will apply here - the stupider, the better. And Donald Trump has already lost his former charm of a class showman, so it will be difficult for him to attract the attention of the average American voter.

Amused. Someone who is living in autocratic Russia Federation ^{(which lacks democracy for at least last 25 years)} is  "witnessing a crisis of the democratic election system" in America.

You have no idea what  the democratic election system  is to voice here and measure Americans and their candidates.

"Kamala primitive"......you must be raving mad... Howard and Berkeley-California are at least two places were she has sharpened her intellect and it's not for you to judge.

[KTChampions]

Are you saying that "eat the rich" which is so popular among the left is not what Harris promotes? Tax on unrealized profits, price regulation (including rent), etc. are all anti-market ideas from the left spectrum. What difference does it make how left they are (communism or socialism or a combination of them) if they are anti-market? Maybe Harris does not support them and uses them just like any populist, but Trump is right when he calls her a communist - he emphasizes that she is trying to gain popularity (among stupid voters) at the expense of harmful dangerous ideas.

For me who is not an American this makes no difference because neither the left nor the right have any impact but when it comes to crypto or bitcoin policy we know who is much more supportive. The idea is who can make pro-people policies because what is expected of the leader is to produce policies that are beneficial and at least those of us in the crypto space are more interested in Trump's policies.

It is easy to be categorized as communism or socialism and leaders must have their own policies. At least Trump is much braver to do something including saying he wants to get the votes of stupid voters and to me that is more honest.

I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

In what way will it affect you, is it because the US is a superpower that currently controls a lot of things. Leaders are expected to be present in the midst of new economic conditions and yes maybe socialism/communism/Marxism would be worse if practiced for any purpose, but from the candidates we can probably get a little bit of insight from the debates that take place. But I'm not saying the outcome of the debates will be the beginning of victory or defeat for one of them. Bitcoin is number 10 and it will affect if the US leader tries to talk about it because this country has the tools to influence and this is just my assumption.

[tread93]

I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

In what way will it affect you, is it because the US is a superpower that currently controls a lot of things. Leaders are expected to be present in the midst of new economic conditions and yes maybe socialism/communism/Marxism would be worse if practiced for any purpose, but from the candidates we can probably get a little bit of insight from the debates that take place. But I'm not saying the outcome of the debates will be the beginning of victory or defeat for one of them. Bitcoin is number 10 and it will affect if the US leader tries to talk about it because this country has the tools to influence and this is just my assumption.

The US affects every country in the entire world somehow with our grip on foreign affairs through our gigantic military presence around the entire world. We are sort of like the Referee and also the best team at the same time if this was football lmao. Our military & global money printer have served us well. Having a cucked leadership under the failed Harris/Biden/Walz Regime will only further worsen America's standing in the world & respect that countries have for us. We will drag our allies into wars that they don't want to be a part of (look at Poland today), we will continue guzzling money into things that don't help anyone except just create more problems to only serve the global elitist agenda. There needs to be some serious revolution in the direction the US is headed and only God at this point can intervene it seems. The Donkey dick heads will try to cheat and steal the election any way possible even if it means serving Trumps head on a silver platter which is exactly what they want so that America can continue going down the tubes and the world goes into chaos mode, especially China and Russia are going to push their boarders boundries and bank accounts to new all time and become the dominant force in this world. Power rules over the evil minds of men & unlimited money gets them to their destination.  

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, we are currently witnessing a crisis of the democratic election system.

How did it happen that in such a large country as the United States there were no younger candidates for President of the United States than Joe Biden and Donald Trump?!

How did such a powerful country as the United States come to gerontocracy? Kamala Harris is much younger than Biden and Trump. But she, in my opinion, is a primitive person who does not have strategic thinking.

Perhaps her actions are secretly controlled by people unknown to us, the gray cardinals of American politics. If we approach this whole situation from the point of view of gambling, then we need to focus on the average American voter, and this is a much more primitive person than the participants of the Bitcointalk forum. The constantly laughing Kamala Harris, in my opinion, has a better chance of being elected to the post of President of the United States than Donald Trump.

The principle will apply here - the stupider, the better. And Donald Trump has already lost his former charm of a class showman, so it will be difficult for him to attract the attention of the average American voter.

Amused. Someone who is living in autocratic Russia Federation ^{(which lacks democracy for at least last 25 years)} is  "witnessing a crisis of the democratic election system" in America.

You have no idea what  the democratic election system  is to voice here and measure Americans and their candidates.

"Kamala primitive"......you must be raving mad... Howard and Berkeley-California are at least two places were she has sharpened her intellect and it's not for you to judge.

What does the authoritarian regime in Russia have to do with it? This topic is about the presidential elections in the USA and bets on this event. In Russia, such bets are impossible at all, since the results of the presidential elections are predetermined.

In the USA, the final result of the elections is unknown, there is competition between the parties, there is intrigue. At the same time, the personalities of the candidates for the US presidency leave no doubt that everything will be bad in the world and we are moving towards a global catastrophe. Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris, in my opinion, are worthy of being the president of such a large and influential country as the USA, at such dramatic moments in human history.

The tragedy is that neither authoritarian nor democratic systems are capable of nominating leaders capable of making strategic decisions for the benefit of all inhabitants of planet Earth. That is why we are moving from catastrophe to catastrophe. 

Kamala Harris (who, in my opinion, will become the new President of the United States) is, in my opinion, a primitive representative of the American establishment, a product of a disciplinary society and primitive modern education (which representatives of the modern elite receive at universities with sonorous names).

Perhaps, of course, you are right, and she is pretending, and in fact she is Leonardo da Vinci or Albert Einstein in terms of intelligence. But we must admit that she pretends very well.

[add1ct3dd]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.

I believe that we are going to see this change one way or another. I know that it is going to be something that will take a bit of a time and we will have to wait until the elections to be sure but I think Kamala will win. It will be a very close race I am sure of that, everything will be decided by a few states once again, and a very close margin in those states as well.

[Hispo]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.

Actually, debates like these ones usually are not aimed for the candidates to get their voting base ready to vote for them or not. Trump and Kamala core supporters are going to vote for them regardless of what happened in the debate, of you asked me.
The real impact of this debates goes to those "undecided" voters who are not sure whether Trump or Harris are the correct person to lead the country for other four years.
If you see changes in the polls or changes in the betting market is because of those undecided people or so-called "swing voters", who have given their attention to the better performance of Kamala when compared to Trump.
Also, In my personal point of view, polls are not as trustworthy as the betting markets are.

[stompix]

I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?
 
And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state? 

In the USA, the final result of the elections is unknown, there is competition between the parties, there is intrigue. At the same time, the personalities of the candidates for the US presidency leave no doubt that everything will be bad in the world and we are moving towards a global catastrophe.

Herad that in 2020 heard that in 2016, oh wait in 2012 and 2008 too
You know when was the first time? In 1984 when the USSR propaganda was telling us that if Regan got re-elected the US economy would crumble and they will launch a nuclear war to save themselves, It's kind of weird if you know what happened afterward!
If there is one thing that died more times than Bitcoin it's the $ and the US economy!

Meanwhile, if anyone is willing to bet there is a huge difference (at this scale) between bookies for this event
Normal odds for betting on the winner at stake:




And some odds that probably nobody wants at Betfair and PP:

[dzungmobile]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would.

It's hard to trust big or small margin from poll results because they only give us results, and we don't know how did they conduct their polls. If methodology is bad, data collection is bad, you know "Garbage in, garbage out" and results can be used to manipulate the crowd thinking and action in the election too.

Actually, debates like these ones usually are not aimed for the candidates to get their voting base ready to vote for them or not. Trump and Kamala core supporters are going to vote for them regardless of what happened in the debate, of you asked me.

It's true that strong and loyal supporters of Republic Party, Democrat Party and each nominee will vote for their party's nominee, not for the opposite nominee. It's super difficult to convince loyal supporters change their mind and vote for an opposite party and its nominee. Except if something is very seriously wrong in your party and with society, serious enough to make you using your vote in order to find change.

The real impact of this debates goes to those "undecided" voters who are not sure whether Trump or Harris are the correct person to lead the country for other four years.

This is main purpose of both nominees in the debate. Undecided voters and swing states are most important to decide a winner in this election because most of loyal states will continue to support their party in most elections. It's easier for two nominees finding a win in a swing state and they all are trying to have it at as many swing states as possible.

[KTChampions]

I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?
 
And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state? 
~

You are confusing economic positioning and political positioning. Look at the Nolan or Eysenck model. The problem is that communists always come to power with "good" slogans and they promise the crowd what it wants (even if they don't believe it themselves), but after they consolidate their power, their rule turns into a dictatorship. Look at the history of Russia, when communists came to power, in some issues they were the most progressive in the world at that time - getting rid of religious oppression, removing sexual taboos, progressive attitude to the racial issue, etc. But in the end, for some fucking reason, the country ended up not in a fairy tale, but in a concentration camp.

As for corporations, they are anti-market by nature: they have won the competition and now want to secure their victory. They advocate regulation, licensing, quotas, and other things that raise the threshold for entering the market. Therefore, corporations try to merge with the state machine (against people). These are the basics.

[stompix]

You are confusing economic positioning and political positioning. Look at the Nolan or Eysenck model. The problem is that communists always come to power with "good" slogans and they promise the crowd what it wants (even if they don't believe it themselves), but after they consolidate their power, their rule turns into a dictatorship.

You're looking at 12 years out of 16 of democrat rule right now.
Does America look like anything communist to you?

Let's make an experiment here and make a topic about corporations in the US you will see that instantly everyone who was calling the Democrats socialist and communist suddenly makes a 180 degree turn and says that corporations own everything in the US, we are all slaves, rich get richer and so on, that socialism is needed! 
Wanna bet on it?
 
 

Look at the history of Russia, when communists came to power, in some issues they were the most progressive in the world at that time - getting rid of religious oppression, removing sexual taboos, progressive attitude to the racial issue, etc.

What alternative history did you read?
When communists came to power (via a civil war) they nationalized everything, introduced the war communism economy movement, collectivization that ended with the famine of 1921, the genocide of Kulaks, and so on.
If you're thinking of the Declaration of Rights that was a joke, probably Lenin and Stalin were laughing their ass out while writing that, the first thing Lenin did was expropriate all churches and declare that religion is opium and destructive to society. Racial stuff, let's not even go there!

As for corporations, they are anti-market by nature: they have won the competition and now want to secure their victory. They advocate regulation, licensing, quotas, and other things that raise the threshold for entering the market. Therefore, corporations try to merge with the state machine (against people). These are the basics.

You still haven't explained how an economy run by corporations is a communist one! 
But let's go one further, if those corporations are bad as you say, why aren't you supporting democrats taxing them more and you're supporting Trump who wants tax cuts for them?  It's a bit hard for me to understand why you want to take the side of the ones who are agsint the people, this in your own words! 

[Haunebu]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.

The debate 100% helped her chances regardless of whether anyone are willing to believe it or not, but I feel it was a small boost. She received a bigger boost thanks to Swift siding with her in my opinion.

A powerful female siding with another powerful female is a proper combo. Trump tweeting childish statements against Swift didn't exactly help him either.

[MinMan]

It's funny how Trump calls Kamala a communist.

...

For most of the world, Kamala isn't even center left, she's right wing.

Of course, everybody knows that proposing price controls, which has not worked since the edict of Diocletian, is a typical right-wing idea. So is stifling the private sector by increasing regulations and taxes.

Another right-wing idea, advocated by the supporters of the Austrian school, is CBDCs, which allow total control by the state of every transaction of individuals.

Not to mention other ideas such as that children do not belong to the parents but “to the community”.

Think twice because you have bought into the overton window so much that you are talking garbage.

While I am not the person you responded to, I just wanted to point out that even right wing have price controls in place at Europe, I do not know much about Asian politics so I can't really talk about that part of the world, but in Europe there are some things that has price control, like medicine for example. Americans typically say stuff like "if healthcare becomes free then who will pay for it!" and think that their taxes will be a lot and they will pay 4 trillion dollars for medical bills.

In reality, you just put price cap to medicine and also hospital bills, that way it's no longer 4 trillion dollars but just 500-800 billion dollars because the price is capped and that way everyone can afford it, it's nearly half of what they pay for military anyway, and more than what they pay yearly to insurance companies, that way they are actually paying less than what they are paying now, and not worry about any costs when they go to hospital. This is what price control is, and all of Europe does it and that is why I think that's not left wing at all.

[baeva]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.

The debate 100% helped her chances regardless of whether anyone are willing to believe it or not, but I feel it was a small boost. She received a bigger boost thanks to Swift siding with her in my opinion.

A powerful female siding with another powerful female is a proper combo. Trump tweeting childish statements against Swift didn't exactly help him either.

There have been observations that have shown that there has been virtually no tipping after Taylor Swift endorsed her, on the contrary, this debate has boosted her chances and actually puts her sometimes ahead according to Polymarket stats. If the second debate does happen - and I don't think it's possible - then she could theoretically pull ahead definitively

[jossiel]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me.

I agree.

That debate really helped her a lot and that's why she's leading right now. Now, we see the polls are changing. When Trump was tempted with an assassination, he reached the ceiling with the polls.

It's interesting that we're seeing a change here and with less than 2 months left, what's more to come and see.

[Hispo]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me.

I agree.

That debate really helped her a lot and that's why she's leading right now. Now, we see the polls are changing. When Trump was tempted with an assassination, he reached the ceiling with the polls.

It's interesting that we're seeing a change here and with less than 2 months left, what's more to come and see.

The thing with Trump's poll numbers and also the betting markets is it is seems Trump has already reached a ceiling or a maximum number/percentage of people who favours him as the winner. An assassination attempt is one of the craziest things which could happen during a presidential campaign and it would certainly make the politician the perpetual favorite for what it is left in the run for the presidency, but with Trump is different, he has already been gone through two assassinations attempts, he has fund-raised a lot of money and it is willing to even go along the cryptocurrency community to reach new levels of popularity, and yet he has not managed to do so beyond what we saw with the first attempt against his life. It speaks volume on the amount of people who blindly follows him snd those who do not.

[TwitchySeal]

I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?
 
And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state? 
~

You are confusing economic positioning and political positioning. Look at the Nolan or Eysenck model. The problem is that communists always come to power with "good" slogans and they promise the crowd what it wants (even if they don't believe it themselves), but after they consolidate their power, their rule turns into a dictatorship. Look at the history of Russia, when communists came to power, in some issues they were the most progressive in the world at that time - getting rid of religious oppression, removing sexual taboos, progressive attitude to the racial issue, etc. But in the end, for some fucking reason, the country ended up not in a fairy tale, but in a concentration camp.

As for corporations, they are anti-market by nature: they have won the competition and now want to secure their victory. They advocate regulation, licensing, quotas, and other things that raise the threshold for entering the market. Therefore, corporations try to merge with the state machine (against people). These are the basics.

You are confusing the actual political idea of communism and communism used in political rhetoric in hopes to swing voters who do not understand what communism is.

[STT]

The impossible thing to measure is the diversity of the support given, a broad range is required to tip the various swing states and thats all that matters.  Trump increasing his support with Republican voters or Harris increasing even more the popular vote in Cali and New York is not going to alter the balance.

 We knew 6 months ago or more that the big votes are there for both parties in their own back yard, alteration there is less important.   Really its capturing the middle ground that matters, did Trump getting shot really alter those in the middle.  Also those who never bother to vote, if they turn up then it can alter everything.

A point I think more important is Harris continuing to harass Trump for a 2nd debate.  He has reason enough to refuse, he has completed 2 debates just the prior was with Biden but thats enough excuse.  However the real reason Harris presses on especially is to send a message with the voters, same as everything they do in politics its for show. Harris wants to show Trump is backing off from the fight, he is on the run; she cant allow him to sell or profit from the narrative of fighting off armed assailants.

   It is exceptional that Trump won previous with no real public service in office, coming under fire slightly gains him that idea of fighting the good fight hence Democrats need to paint him as a coward fleeing the debate challenge etc.   They will continue on that way imo.

[Poker Player]

As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?

Come on, that's all we need. Earlier fellow alani123 saying Kamala is right wing and now you saying Trump's policies are closer to communism. The world turned upside down.

Do you know that the leftist movement has changed or have you stuck with what Lenin did?

Since the 70's and especially when the Berlin Wall fell, as the left could not defend the communist economic system because of the obvious economic disaster, they started focusing on gays, the climate, women's rights or immigrants.

And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state? 

They will have their reasons but you just look at what has happened to a lot of businesses in states like LA or NY, that make policies like those advocated by Kamala, namely, they have fled to states that make policies like those advocated by Trump, like Florida or Tennessee.

[Cryptomultiplier]

The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me.

I agree.

That debate really helped her a lot and that's why she's leading right now. Now, we see the polls are changing. When Trump was tempted with an assassination, he reached the ceiling with the polls.

It's interesting that we're seeing a change here and with less than 2 months left, what's more to come and see.

The thing with Trump's poll numbers and also the betting markets is it is seems Trump has already reached a ceiling or a maximum number/percentage of people who favours him as the winner. An assassination attempt is one of the craziest things which could happen during a presidential campaign and it would certainly make the politician the perpetual favorite for what it is left in the run for the presidency, but with Trump is different, he has already been gone through two assassinations attempts, he has fund-raised a lot of money and it is willing to even go along the cryptocurrency community to reach new levels of popularity, and yet he has not managed to do so beyond what we saw with the first attempt against his life. It speaks volume on the amount of people who blindly follows him and those who do not.

People will blindly follow anyone that seems to speak the kind of language they understand, and know how to fight for what is theirs and that is what i have seen with Trump's campaign so far, he has been more than able to do a lot in terms of convincing the American citizens, the outside world, the cryptocurrency world too, that he has got their back and would make way to allow the use of cryptocurrency as much as he would launch his own crypto currency and make policies to favor cryptocurrency markets.
Whatever be the bet that is making people shake their heads, it is nothing but a format to deceive onlookers and put the presidential ticket in the rightful hands of Trump.

Although I have a good feeling about crypto currency being a bullet point in his campaign, it still doesn't matter much if he wins or losses the election bets, mostly as the outcome could be responsible for Bitcoin or Etherum rise or drop in price as well as other crypto prices.