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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807772 times)
the joint
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May 14, 2012, 08:58:30 PM
 #1201

My forecast based upon my research in precious metals -- keep in mind I've only been learning about precious metals for about 3 months and I did not read through this thread:

1)  Gold short-term outlook = down
2)  Gold mid-term outlook = Huh?
3)  Gold long-term outlook = up

I do not believe the US dollar can sustain itself over time.  Gold will always remain useful for industrial purposes or for jewelry.  It will continue to be a status symbol whether or not it is used to back a currency.  Moreover, if and when the US dollar sees a significant decline in value, I would expect to see a positive correlation between gold and Bitcoin.  

I'm looking to buy a little bit of gold right around $1500, and then more if it hits $1400.

3 mo 'eh?

you see there guys?  now you know you're in trouble.

I'm truly not sure what to make of your response.  I'm genuinely trying to learn about the precious metals market, so if you could elaborate a bit upon what you mean, it'd be helpful Smiley

Son; read the thread.

...

I asked what you meant by the response, not what the thread was about.  And judging by the way you called me "son" coupled with your previous post, "as the USD shoots up to..." I'd rather not wade through 62 pages of what is likely to be a series of cryptographic clues (aka opinions) which have been intentionally made to be indirect.  I'm asking for your direct explanation, and I highly, highly doubt that you have some kind of clairvoyant powers to know for certain what's going to happen in the precious metals market.  I have a feeling that you want me to read the thread in its entirety so you can feel satisfied that someone is meticulously looking over the details in a thread that you yourself created.

You really came off as an arrogant dick the way you phrased that.  I'm not here to bump your self-esteem.  

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silverbox
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May 14, 2012, 08:59:13 PM
 #1202

it's that time again:

Charge!!!!!!!!!


[img) AAPL rulez!! (/img]

Its that time I suppose:

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 5/14

Bitcoin 5.00   (down ~8%)

Gold 1556  (down ~8%)

BTC still isn't up .  Gold is now doing just as badly as BTC.  Its still a tie!!

AAPL 558
tvbcof
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May 14, 2012, 09:10:50 PM
 #1203


Inspired by silverbox's update...

General Comment:  Bitcoin Sad  Harshest of tokes, dude.


Another Score:  5/14/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     8.50         5.00       + 0.59
Gold    1495         1555      + 1.04

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago


Another Score:  5/12/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.40         4.95       + 0.92
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/11/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.00         4.95       +  0.99
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/10/12  (kitco down, gold est from INO.)
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.82         4.90       + 1.28
Gold    1510         1593      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/9/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.75         5.03       + 1.34
Gold    1510         1590      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/8/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.64         5.03       + 1.38
Gold    1497         1605      + 1.07


miscreanity
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May 14, 2012, 10:13:49 PM
 #1204

This entire move since mid-2011 has been an odd mix of amusement and disgust, like watching children pretending to be grown-ups. All of the innocently entertaining aspects intertwined with early, disconcerting patterns of destructive behavior would be less horrifying if the subjects involved weren't so thoroughly out-of-control, and at the same time insulated beyond any measure of influence.

as the USD shoots up to $80.70

Your definition of "shoots" seems truly absurd. It's one thing when Bitcoin spikes with a relative change in one day of 10%, but another entirely when the dollar jumps inches up 0.004% by close. There's also nothing supporting a dollar rise other than it being the "least worst" destination in the mind of the majority, while assets of real value are discarded. I'm bewildered by such an intelligent individual not being able to see the erosion of support. Even if you hold to the thought that the dollar is "backed" by GDP - the GDP is falling apart!


Really? So a 0.004% move now qualifies as floodgates opening?


Taken in perspective, the recent move is even weaker. How much effort has it taken just to keep the 50-DMA flat?

I shouldn't be surprised, considering the fact that you scream gold is collapsing when it's been steadily declining by ~1% per day in a blatant channel of systematized control. Not to mention the blindingly obvious disparity in structure between paper and physical assets in general, let alone gold and silver. It's as though you think suffocation in a low-oxygen environment is impossible if you just focus on the chemistry of gas exchange.

Another thing - you recently suggested that inflation can't be implemented fast enough? Did you actually mean that? How long does it take to type:

$1,000,000,000,000,000

How much longer would it take for computer algorithms to run based on protocols for swap arrangements? Seconds? Maybe minutes? Even including the human delay of communication between major banks that are first to receive funds, hours - maybe a day or two? We're talking about trusted entities, though - push a big red panic button and the financial nukes are launched. A billion dollars could zip around the world and land in bank reserves almost as fast as you could say "billion".

Now how long does it take for contracts to be unwound? How long for markets to reprice assets? Days, weeks, or in the case of what we're witnessing now, years? Can you not see the absurdity of a statement to the effect of inflation not being able to keep up with deflation?

Here's an experiment: offer ten random people $100 as a gift. The next day, tell them that you mistakenly gave too much and that you need half of it back. Extrapolate that to the banking system. Good luck getting deflation to hit faster than inflation.

It's disheartening that you still don't get the deceptive foundation of today's currency and futures markets, preferring to dwell in superficially misleading fiat-based metrics. For all the pontification on the need to understand abusive elements, you're falling short. The only sane move right now is acquisition of real assets, especially gold & silver or productive land and equipment. Instead, you're trying to ski up an avalanche.

At least we can still agree on Bitcoin, but reaching the destination requires tunnelling through a mountain of granite; i.e. it won't happen soon. And with Bitcoinica down and out, nearly the entire leveraged trading environment is effectively shut down for now. Any pressure on Bitcoin's external exchange price will be predominantly from full-reserve liquidation, not forced margin calls. That's exactly how physical gold trades, irrespective of paper derivatives.

Again - I suggest that Bitcoin prices are a better proxy of physical gold (and silver) prices than USD-denominated values.
cypherdoc
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May 14, 2012, 10:33:31 PM
 #1205

oh my miscreanity, oh my. Shocked
the joint
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May 14, 2012, 10:58:44 PM
 #1206

oh my miscreanity, oh my. Shocked

I knew it.  You don't know shit.  This thread is worthless.

MatthewLM
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May 14, 2012, 11:01:14 PM
 #1207

miscreanity is right. It's extremely easy to add numbers on a computer. Google's good at it: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=2+trillion+plus+8+quadrillion Maybe the federal reserve should start using Google's systems? In fact, it seems Google can even handle extremely big numbers: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=2+trillion+plus+1+googol

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cypherdoc
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May 14, 2012, 11:10:10 PM
 #1208

oh my miscreanity, oh my. Shocked

I knew it.  You don't know shit.  This thread is worthless.

you're right.  i don't know shit.  move along...
the joint
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May 14, 2012, 11:15:45 PM
 #1209

oh my miscreanity, oh my. Shocked

I knew it.  You don't know shit.  This thread is worthless.

you're right.  i don't know shit.  move along...


miscreanity
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May 14, 2012, 11:24:10 PM
 #1210

I knew it.  You don't know shit.  This thread is worthless.

Not at all - he's exceptionally capable of perceiving the dynamics within the financial system. It's just incredibly painful to see continued rejection of the real, physical nature of reality in favor of an encapsulated view on financial instruments - especially when the structure is laid bare for all to see, and even further when he can see the big picture in regard to Bitcoin, which is isomorphic to the situation in physical gold.

The greatest danger to remaining in the bankster sandbox is that there's no way of knowing when you'll be forcibly kicked out without your accumulated wealth, nor when the sinkhole it's built on top of will swallow everything up whole. The last people I want to see wiped out are those with the vision to understand Bitcoin - this community is the future of finance, and it needs to remain strong.
tvbcof
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May 14, 2012, 11:26:37 PM
 #1211

oh my miscreanity, oh my. Shocked

I knew it.  You don't know shit.  This thread is worthless.

you're right.  i don't know shit.  move along...



You really can't expect cyperdoc to share his valuable material for free right here in front of God and everybody!

Why don't you see if you can trade him some magical crystals for a subscription to his newsletter?


the joint
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May 14, 2012, 11:32:23 PM
 #1212


miscreanity
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May 14, 2012, 11:36:12 PM
 #1213

Diagnostic imaging showing the onset of societal dementia:



The greater the separation between collective cognition (green) and functional results (blue), the closer a society is to being in a vegetative state. This is rapidly followed by system failure in the absence of external supportive measures.
cypherdoc
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May 14, 2012, 11:38:55 PM
 #1214



hey silverbox, new rocket pictures!  Tongue
silverbox
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May 14, 2012, 11:40:29 PM
 #1215

Diagnostic imaging showing the onset of societal dementia:



The greater the separation between collective cognition (green) and functional results (blue), the closer a society is to being in a vegetative state. This is rapidly followed by system failure in the absence of external supportive measures.

Nice graph!
cypherdoc
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May 14, 2012, 11:42:22 PM
 #1216

I knew it.  You don't know shit.  This thread is worthless.

Not at all - he's exceptionally capable of perceiving the dynamics within the financial system. It's just incredibly painful to see Mr. Market's continued rejection of the real, physical nature of reality in favor of an encapsulated view on financial instruments - especially when the structure is laid bare for all to see, and even further when he Mr. Market can will see the big picture in regard to Bitcoin, which is isomorphic to the situation in physical gold.

The greatest danger to remaining in the bankster sandbox is that there's no way of knowing when you'll be forcibly kicked out without your accumulated wealth, nor when the sinkhole it's built on top of will swallow everything up whole. The last people I want to see wiped out are those with the vision to understand Bitcoin - this community is the future of finance, and it needs to remain strong.

FTFY
cypherdoc
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May 14, 2012, 11:57:57 PM
 #1217

i think its fair to say that today we heard a "snap".  a snap in the nerves of the many vs. the nerves of one.

the problem is, i don't see this changing for a long time.  we are about to breach the 1523 level and once that happens it will get even uglier.
tvbcof
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May 15, 2012, 12:16:07 AM
 #1218

i think its fair to say that today we heard a "snap".  a snap in the nerves of the many vs. the nerves of one.

the problem is, i don't see this changing for a long time.  we are about to breach the 1523 level and once that happens it will get even uglier.

As I've explained, the dip in the price of PM's was entirely anticipated for fundamental reasons.

For from my nerves 'snapping', nothing would make me happier than to see the value of USD increase on the USDX and the USD price of PM's decrease and hold for another month-ish when I'm expecting a chunk of unwanted USD and will be looking for a place to stuff it.  I am hoping against hope the situation can persist that long, or preferably get even 'better'.  It's possible that Greece and the EU will produce a very large gift for me at a very opportune time.  We'll see.


miscreanity
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May 15, 2012, 12:17:31 AM
 #1219

Not at all - he's exceptionally capable of perceiving the dynamics within the financial system. It's just incredibly painful to see Mr. Market's continued rejection of the real, physical nature of reality in favor of an encapsulated view on financial instruments - especially when the structure is laid bare for all to see, and even further when he Mr. Market can will see the big picture in regard to Bitcoin, which is isomorphic to the situation in physical gold.

The greatest danger to remaining in the bankster sandbox is that there's no way of knowing when you'll be forcibly kicked out without your accumulated wealth, nor when the sinkhole it's built on top of will swallow everything up whole. The last people I want to see wiped out are those with the vision to understand Bitcoin - this community is the future of finance, and it needs to remain strong.

FTFY

The western market is not greater than the productive capacity of the entire world - it is part of it.

i think its fair to say that today we heard a "snap".  a snap in the nerves of the many vs. the nerves of one.

the problem is, i don't see this changing for a long time.  we are about to breach the 1523 level and once that happens it will get even uglier.

This decline has actually been my biggest yawn yet.

That will be the separation of paper & physical. A spike with the USD in the hundreds of basis points without correcting is what would indicate it. Every time reality is rejected by the financial part of the world, the greater the chances of that complete separation. If that happens, financial instruments' representation of real value evaporates as long as the separation persists.

Holding dollars on the expectation of exchanging them for Euros and vice versa only lasts so long before there is a need to exchange the currency for real assets. Service economies contribute to this insular situation, further obfuscating the available supply of real assets. In other words, it doesn't matter how many financial instruments are held: we still need to eat. For those who don't grow their own food, only the most reliable form(s) of money will survive.
bitsire
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May 15, 2012, 03:59:37 AM
 #1220

Hi all, I'm starting to think we are about to have a repeat of 2008 when pretty much everything collapsed and the USD shot up in the perceived flight to safety. If this does happen, what do you think will happen to the price of bitcoins? I assume they would plummet along with stocks, gold and silver, at least at first? I've been stacking gold and silver for a while now but I'm new to bitcoin so I'm trying to come up with a plan for my dry powder when the collapse comes (which is starting to look like any day/week now).
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