Isn't an uninhibited bull run only really possible when there are basically no bears?
Or will there always be bears?
It's generally the other way around - lots of bears means the time is ripe for a bull. There are plenty of sellers and few buyers, so the sellers have no more room to push prices down while the buyers have plenty of room to run up.
edit: i know several of you guys have been pumping pm mining stocks ever since i started the other Gold thread last August. i told you to get out then. how's that going?
The options fell short - couldn't quite break even despite the Feb rally. Bad timing there on my part, but I've noted that I'm typically early anyway (usually by 1/2 to 1 full cycle). You definitely have a honed nose for shorter trading scales.
On the other hand, the mining stocks are cash-flow positive with healthy dividends. Overall NAV from acquisitions since last August is about even, gainers and losers balancing out (AEM is one). It's a different story when looking at accumulation over the past few years, which is highly positive in addition to generating cash-flow.
Keep in mind -
NO ETFs,
NO LEVERAGE,
PHYSICAL METAL ONLY.
Therefore, time is on my side. The same applies with Bitcoin. In fact, I'm expecting a hit on gold/silver tomorrow just as Bitcoin was assaulted today. Bitcoin has been leading the metals by about a day for quite some time now, and I am growing increasingly suspicious of this behaviour.
From a little earlier:
the deflation will has already overwhelmed them.
Fixed
That's why the prices we see today are an illusion. The numbers being given today are fabrications.
Contract != Physical
Because of that, paper contract prices can collapse while physical asset prices climb. Official sources probably will only quote paper prices, so unless you're producing or have some way of accessing relevant production cost (e.g. from a mining company shareholder report or a
Chinese/Singaporean exchange), you won't know the real value of an asset. That's the true power the CME/COMEX/LBMA have - illusion.
Vlad's perspective is dead-on. Death by currency collapse. The short-game makes it look like gold is doomed, but the
hidden movements will cause resumption of explosive volatility in exactly the opposite direction that you're expecting - until full separation, at which point we'll both be right: official prices will fall precipitously while physical metal premiums will skyrocket.
Keep picking the corners - you're damn good at it. Just keep a tight grip on the physical... and Bitcoin
If this is the discusssion you were talking about:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0I don't see any proof that you were "more right":
Gold was around 1600 last August , and today it's around 1660, it wasn't a trap, and it's not collapsing.
Thanks to Bob Prechter, it's now my firm belief that most PM technicians are either clown artists or con artists, with very few exceptions.
For the short-term movements, he was definitely right.
I think most PM techs are neither clowns nor cons, they're simply looking at gold as a mere tradeable security. That's as bad as being a con clown. Prechter is one of them.
For valid analysis:
http://www.jsmineset.com/http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/are you prepared for a generational ramp in the USD from the next deflationary wave? everyone understands inflation. hey, just print.
The only generational action occurring is the USD losing its place as a global exchange medium. Both deflation and inflation take a back seat to increasing irrelevance; it's the greatest insult. Who cares what the USD does if nations stop using it? That makes it worthless no matter what - different dynamic.
Of course, as we agreed in the gold thread, our objectives are different.
Poll
