Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[notme]

Hi all, I'm starting to think we are about to have a repeat of 2008 when pretty much everything collapsed and the USD shot up in the perceived flight to safety. If this does happen, what do you think will happen to the price of bitcoins? I assume they would plummet along with stocks, gold and silver, at least at first? I've been stacking gold and silver for a while now but I'm new to bitcoin so I'm trying to come up with a plan for my dry powder when the collapse comes (which is starting to look like any day/week now).

If we start moving quickly down in other markets, I wouldn't be terribly surprised by bitcoin taking a brief dip as well.  I anticipate it will meet good support before it heads below $3, if it even makes it that low.  Gold is usually the first to bottom, but bitcoin sometimes leads gold due to the 24/7 nature of it and the unrestricted access to trading info.

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[bitsire]

If there are people chasing USD isn't it also possible that a certain amount of Bitcoin could be chased as well? Say, from some Euro heavy Greeks...

Chodpaba, this is exactly one of the reasons that led me to raise the question - this collapse is not the same as 2008... Bitcoin value could very well shoot up if people start dumping their fiat currencies for it.

As Notme says, it's highly unlikely for it to drop below $3 so I guess all one can do is buy now and try to keep some dry powder aside in case we are given a fire sale.

[hazek]

Hi all, I'm starting to think we are about to have a repeat of 2008 when pretty much everything collapsed and the USD shot up in the perceived flight to safety. If this does happen, what do you think will happen to the price of bitcoins? I assume they would plummet along with stocks, gold and silver, at least at first? I've been stacking gold and silver for a while now but I'm new to bitcoin so I'm trying to come up with a plan for my dry powder when the collapse comes (which is starting to look like any day/week now).

I have the same opinion purely based what happened in 08. I think it all depends on what the politicians but more importantly central bankers will do once the various debt starts to implode, I'm 98% sure they'll counterfeit some more trying to reinflate which will eventually end in rising prices.

[silverbox]

i think its fair to say that today we heard a "snap".  a snap in the nerves of the many vs. the nerves of one.

the problem is, i don't see this changing for a long time.  we are about to breach the 1523 level and once that happens it will get even uglier.

You don't think China and various other countries will be buying up gold?  Eventually all of the EE's gold will be in China's vaults if they don't stop selling it at the depressed Paper price..

[cypherdoc]

i think its fair to say that today we heard a "snap".  a snap in the nerves of the many vs. the nerves of one.

the problem is, i don't see this changing for a long time.  we are about to breach the 1523 level and once that happens it will get even uglier.

You don't think China and various other countries will be buying up gold?  Eventually all of the EE's gold will be in China's vaults if they don't stop selling it at the depressed Paper price..

thats exactly the problem.  they are.

[hazek]

i think its fair to say that today we heard a "snap".  a snap in the nerves of the many vs. the nerves of one.

the problem is, i don't see this changing for a long time.  we are about to breach the 1523 level and once that happens it will get even uglier.

You don't think China and various other countries will be buying up gold?  Eventually all of the EE's gold will be in China's vaults if they don't stop selling it at the depressed Paper price..

only about 10% - 25% of all gold ever mined is in "official" hands, the rest is held privately.

I recommend you read this blog post: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/must-read-another-perspective

It deals with what's to come, the role of gold, ect.. I found it a really good read too.

[bitsire]

And most of that "official" gold is really just paper...

Or tungsten salted bars 

[tvbcof]

And most of that "official" gold is really just paper...

Or tungsten salted bars 

Someone here was planning to 'melt tungsten' and pour it into hollowed out gold bars.  Good luck with that

[silverbox]

And most of that "official" gold is really just paper...

Or tungsten salted bars 

Someone here was planning to 'melt tungsten' and pour it into hollowed out gold bars.  Good luck with that

have to do it the other way around, tungstens melting temp is like 5x that of gold..

[tvbcof]

And most of that "official" gold is really just paper...

Or tungsten salted bars 

Someone here was planning to 'melt tungsten' and pour it into hollowed out gold bars.  Good luck with that

have to do it the other way around, tungstens melting temp is like 5x that of gold..

Au: mp: 1337 Kelvin
W:  mp: 3695 K

You might be able to melt tungsten in a graphite or diamond crucible, but I would guess that applying and holding that much energy in the apparatus would be a challenge.  And, of course, it's likely to turn the recipient gold container into a molten mess almost instantly unless the mass was so big as to make the whole adventure rather pointless.

But anyway, it would be easy enough to drill out the gold and hammer in some pegs which is almost certainly one of the techniques used.

It would be interesting to see if there is a popularization of gold bullion in the form factor of a spaghetti noodle.  This would allow some amount of non-destructive testing based on thermal expansion, and semi-non-destructive testing by giving the unit something of a bending test.  I guess the effectiveness would depend on what sort of metallurgy is possible with tungsten in order to impact its modulus of thermal expansion and elastic characteristics.

[silverbox]

And most of that "official" gold is really just paper...

Or tungsten salted bars 

Someone here was planning to 'melt tungsten' and pour it into hollowed out gold bars.  Good luck with that

have to do it the other way around, tungstens melting temp is like 5x that of gold..

Au: mp: 1337 Kelvin
W:  mp: 3695 K

You might be able to melt tungsten in a graphite or diamond crucible, but I would guess that applying and holding that much energy in the apparatus would be a challenge.  And, of course, it's likely to turn the recipient gold container into a molten mess almost instantly unless the mass was so big as to make the whole adventure rather pointless.

But anyway, it would be easy enough to drill out the gold and hammer in some pegs which is almost certainly one of the techniques used.

It would be interesting to see if there is a popularization of gold bullion in the form factor of a spaghetti noodle.  This would allow some amount of non-destructive testing based on thermal expansion, and semi-non-destructive testing by giving the unit something of a bending test.  I guess the effectiveness would depend on what sort of metallurgy is possible with tungsten in order to impact its modulus of thermal expansion and elastic characteristics.

No need for all that..  A leeb hardness tester or a high current conductivity test should be able to ferret out any tungsten in a non destructive way

[tvbcof]

...

It would be interesting to see if there is a popularization of gold bullion in the form factor of a spaghetti noodle.  This would allow some amount of non-destructive testing based on thermal expansion, and semi-non-destructive testing by giving the unit something of a bending test.  I guess the effectiveness would depend on what sort of metallurgy is possible with tungsten in order to impact its modulus of thermal expansion and elastic characteristics.

Another example of the ridiculous overhead for gold. 

Not to disagree with you point, but one could also argue that it is also an indication of the ridiculous value of the element.

As I think about things, one could have a pretty handy and pretty fool proof device which consists of a water bath, a bending gauge and a length gauge all in one unit.  This would measure density, thermal, and elastic properties in one fairly quick and easy run (assuming my spaghetti form factor bullion idea.)  As a optional features, throw in some sort of a spectrometer to look for other elements and maybe a piezo operated device to characterize the resonate characteristics of the sample.

I officially claim intellectual property rights over all of the above ideas

[tvbcof]

...

It would be interesting to see if there is a popularization of gold bullion in the form factor of a spaghetti noodle.  This would allow some amount of non-destructive testing based on thermal expansion, and semi-non-destructive testing by giving the unit something of a bending test.  I guess the effectiveness would depend on what sort of metallurgy is possible with tungsten in order to impact its modulus of thermal expansion and elastic characteristics.

Another example of the ridiculous overhead for gold. 

Not to disagree with you point, but one could also argue that it is also an indication of the ridiculous value of the element.

Or, just use your private keys to decode a public ledger.

Physical PMs and Bitcoin each have their strengths, weaknesses, and potential failure modes.  But dealing with neither PMs nor Bitcoin is particularly difficult so I'm happily doing both and anticipate continuing to do so making whatever adjustments I deem appropriate as conditions evolve.

[bitsire]

Looks like my questions may be answered sooner than I thought - silver and gold are getting annihilated while bitcoin is stable. I just stumbled across this article as well:

http://www.bitcoinmoney.com/post/23061931511/bitcoin-shtf-plan

Article makes some good points - when SHTF, there's no telling what the value of things will be. Gold and silver will be worthless if you can't find anyone to trade/sell it to. Of course, bitcoin requires an internet connection...

I'm really glad I just diversified into bitcoin as well - it's always best to put many eggs in many baskets.

Disclaimer:

Long gold
Long silver
Long canned hams
And now long bitcoin 

[cypherdoc]

Looks like my questions may be answered sooner than I thought - silver and gold are getting annihilated while bitcoin is stable. I just stumbled across this article as well:

http://www.bitcoinmoney.com/post/23061931511/bitcoin-shtf-plan

Article makes some good points - when SHTF, there's no telling what the value of things will be. Gold and silver will be worthless if you can't find anyone to trade/sell it to. Of course, bitcoin requires an internet connection...

I'm really glad I just diversified into bitcoin as well - it's always best to put many eggs in many baskets.

Disclaimer:

Long gold
Long silver
Long canned hams
And now long bitcoin  

Thank You.

[silverbox]

Long canned hams

Spam??  Guaranteed to be the last thing on your shelf??

[cypherdoc]

Looks like my questions may be answered sooner than I thought - silver and gold are getting annihilated while bitcoin is stable. I just stumbled across this article as well:

http://www.bitcoinmoney.com/post/23061931511/bitcoin-shtf-plan

Article makes some good points - when SHTF, there's no telling what the value of things will be. Gold and silver will be worthless if you can't find anyone to trade/sell it to. Of course, bitcoin requires an internet connection...

I'm really glad I just diversified into bitcoin as well - it's always best to put many eggs in many baskets.

Disclaimer:

Long gold
Long silver
Long canned hams
And now long bitcoin 

Congratulations on being the first of many more.

[miscreanity]

Another example of the ridiculous overhead for gold. 

Gold refining and verification processes are the equivalent of Bitcoin mining. In both cases, the overhead ensures quality and security.

[cypherdoc]

Another example of the ridiculous overhead for gold. 

Gold refining and verification processes are the equivalent of Bitcoin mining. In both cases, the overhead ensures quality and security.

Bitcoin mining is WAY more than that.  It also has the chance to replace the entire banking system.

[silverbox]

Looks like my questions may be answered sooner than I thought - silver and gold are getting annihilated while bitcoin is stable. I just stumbled across this article as well:

Thats not really true..  BTC and gold over the last 2 months have declined almost the exact same amount.   and if you look at the chart for the last 12 months, btc is anything but stable whereas gold has been trading in a fairly narrow range.