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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
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freebud
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October 13, 2014, 11:53:10 AM
Last edit: October 13, 2014, 12:09:13 PM by freebud
 #961

So rather than overcoming a 15 minute learning gap, you'd rather place your money in someone else's API, who is in control of likely 7.5% of the mint, even after they've been hacked in the last year, and Mt. Gox, and everything else? I'm not trying to be accusatory here, just stating what I see.

So collectively, I see that many people (With at least a representative ~7.5% of the mint) would rather have point-and-click operation with no functionality (as the 'coins' you see on the exchange are just representative of the value that you're owed, and not actual value tokens), over typing an average of five words on a command line with full functionality of what cryptonote offers you?
It's not about the learning curve, it's about the fact that I can't do anything on my laptop when running Monero. Because of this I can only run it when I actually want to use it, but then I have to wait for ages for syncing, or have to re-download the blockchain.

I have to ask, for speculation purposes, what is it, exactly, that people think they have bought?
1. The promise of a truly anonymous cryptocurrency with a fair launch.
2. A strong development team & active community that can fulfill the promise.
Currently I evaluate #2 less highly than when I bought.

Additionally, I'd like to point out that I think lower prices are great for higher adoption. So, do people think adoption would suffer if price rises upon release of a GUI wallet, or would adoption fuel a rise in price after release of a GUI? So, if the GUI was already 'priced in', could adoption suffer because the price increased to matched the hype related to a government GUI, or if the GUI was somehow prevented from being 'priced in' before its actual release would adoption then be helped?

Further, what do people view adoption as? Is adoption the moment the software is downloaded and run on your computer, or the moment you click buy on poloniex? I think that's a very important question. My personal view is that adoption is the moment the software is downloaded and run on my computer, and then used for its intended purpose. As this is a currency, the intended purpose would likely be to transact with it. So, as a third question, could adoption be the moment you transact with the software on your computer?

So, other than exchanges and the pending MEW game, what can I use this for to transact in?

Edit: Consider that you can purchase plots of land on the moon right now. Did you buy this as a gag for friends and family, did you purchase with the intent to hold onto it to pass down to your children in case the plot of land becomes claimable, or do you really think you're gonna go and move to the moon tomorrow? Maybe this is a weak analogy, but I consider that anyone who has not downloaded this software and used it on their computer to have not really adopted the coin, in the same way they don't intend to move to the Moon.
Monero is purely a speculative vehicle, and it will take very long time before real adoption is driving the price. Even in bitcoin speculation is what driving the price, and not adoption, although real adoption levels are certainly part of the speculative value.
Declining prices are bad for adoption, why would I tell my friends about my investment if I'm down 40%? why would I donate to the dev team? why would I spend my free time on developing services? Rationally, I should because that is what might actually prop my investment, but psychologically it's not that easy to do.
The DB & GUI are also part of the speculative value, because they are both necessary for adoption and are part of the confidence people have in the dev team. So, I think their release will drive up the price, which will put current holders in a position to help increase adoption.
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October 13, 2014, 12:57:54 PM
Last edit: October 13, 2014, 03:46:11 PM by BanditryAndLoot
 #962

It's not about the learning curve, it's about the fact that I can't do anything on my laptop when running Monero. Because of this I can only run it when I actually want to use it, but then I have to wait for ages for syncing, or have to re-download the blockchain.
Very interesting, I'd forgotten how much ram this takes up (my comps run 16/32Gb ram w/ i7's so I forgot about the validation time and that the blockchain is in ram). A few situations I can consider:

1) a gov't GUI and the core protocol had a DB implementation that didn't bring the entire chain into ram and that does use your entire bandwidth
2) no gov't GUI, but the core protocol had a DB implementation that didn't bring the entire chain into ram and has some kind of bandwidth management
3) The situation now where there are GUI's, but they're clunky because of the rough underlying protocol and the network bandwidth isn't managed (i think this is still happening?)
4) Match the existing GUI's to an updated core protocol with a good DB implementation that didn't bring the entire chain into ram and had network management

Assuming you're someone who, in my point of view, is on the verge of adoption, but haven't totally adopted it yet (where you may own the currency on plx, but do not have the wallet on your computer), and momentarily excluding people who we want to adopt the software (everyone of course Cheesy ), do you personally see any real difference between the above scenarios in regards to the likelihood that you'd personally put the software into use on your computer?

So which of the four likely situations above do you see having the greatest effects on both adoption and price, comparing yourself as a likely future adopter, and someone who may have not even heard of this yet?

1. The promise of a truly anonymous cryptocurrency with a fair launch.
Could I ask what date you had acquired some of this currency?


2. A strong development team & active community that can fulfill the promise.
Currently I evaluate #2 less highly than when I bought.

Interesting again, because after the core team had picked this project up, I had initially operated under the assumption (from what data on this forum I could skim through within a couple of hours) that one of them was a full-time cryptocurrency developer and the rest were unknowns to me, this was april at the time. Since then, I've discovered that at least two others seem to have solid development experience (with limited cryptocurrency development experience), at least one had management/IT experience, and at least one more also seems to have emerged as a software developer with a likely strong understanding of cryptography. That's only the core team, and since then they've gotten in touch with mathematicians/cryptographers and hired general developers. If anything, I've come evaluate this metric on an increasingly higher value than when I first took note of this. What makes you value it less highly than when you bought?




Monero is purely a speculative vehicle, and it will take very long time before real adoption is driving the price.

It seems my questions have brought about a contradiction, as your answer to what you think you bought and your answer to what this is are different. What you think you bought, and what you say this is are two different things because what you think you bought is "The promise of a truly anonymous cryptocurrency with a fair launch, a strong development team & active community that can fulfill the promise(s)", while what you say this is "is purely a speculative vehicle".

My personal answer to what I think I bought was "The promise of a truly anonymous cryptocurrency with a fair launch, a strong development team & active community that can fulfill the promise(s)", but where I think we differ is that I see that Monero currently is "A truly anonymous cryptocurrency with a fair launch, a strong development team & active community that can fulfill the promise(s)." But what I can't seem to understand is why we both agree with what we think we bought, be fail to agree on what we both say this is. Do you have any ideas on this? Could it be, simply, because I've got 16Gb of ram and an i7, and therefore the technical capabilities of the software still match my capability to use them? We say speculation drives the price, but I don't have anything against the claim that "The price is always at the right level to allow the highest level of adoption achieveable currently".

With that statement, do you think that it would be the speculation that drives the adoption, or the adoption that drives the speculation?

Why would I tell my friends about my investment if I'm down 40%?
I would suggest starting from the beginning, even getting people to understand that obtaining a single bitcoin block 4 years ago would have let them live comfortably for an entire year today (or, at least earlier this year, before the return to sane prices Cheesy ). So, for as little as a $20.00 investment in Monero today, one could have the proven possibility of not working for an entire year in 4-5 years, if you were in agreement that decentralized blockchain technology is what drives bitcoin. That's only the economical aspect. Additionally, you can have a legitimate dialogue where you explain what blockchain technology is and what it can do for people. Maybe you can convince them to purchase a graphics card instead, and invest $20.00 in power bills instead of buying it on the market. It's surprising to me that creativity is lacking in this likely unlimited implementation of a sound technology.

Why would I contribute to the dev team?
Because you're an early adopter. I'm not saying hand them your money (unless you really think that's all they want), but if you can't even exchange simple dialogue with them about your hopes, dreams and future prospects for the technology, then what does that say about everyone walking in the door after you? Share ideas with them, and letting them do the developing seems to have gotten me the best turnaround with something so new. Personally, I've shared two ideas with them. Both ideas I've seen manifest (one just very recently, and only one of the two I know came specifically from me). If I must live vicariously through these people, then the least I can do is spare an idea or two Smiley .

why would I spend my free time on developing services? Rationally, I should because that is what might actually prop my investment, but psychologically it's not that easy to do.
I'd make the point here that this is likely why we have <10 core team members, because any more than that would see the same barriers here you do. Even then, someone will eventually see the barrier as small enough to spend some time on. It's not a fault of your own or anything, more that events haven't lined up for either of the parties involved to make it happen, yet. I think it will. Might be a few years, might be never, but when it does I'll be very interested in what someone came up with.

..drive up the price, which will put current holders in a position to help increase adoption.
Generally this will put current holders in a position to take profit, and actually halt the increase to adoption until the price is driven low enough and enough development occurrs that adoption may continue (because people are terrified of being screwed over by all the other people that overbought). Are you saying that as the current holders take their profit, they will be putting their money into services? Or, are you saying that if the price goes up faster, then this cycle can move faster and we can be at the end of the adoption cycle faster? While that may seem logical, I believe that pushing the adoption cycle too fast will likely inhibit the penetration into society. Additionally, I believe that any dropoff in adoption by investors taking profit will inhibit the penetration into society (until such a time where they cannot reasonably take their profit eg: a low).

It's with these ideas in mind, that I'd like this to take as long as possible, and for development to occur in as much free time as possible, because for the market to pull back like it's been doing is showing to be catastrophic to the cycle overall. Look at bitcoin. $275 a few days ago. Eventually the price always returns to the point where healthy adoption levels can be achieved. I bet for every ten people buying it at $1000, there was double that wanting to buy it at $275. Who knows though?


Add: Thank you very much for helping me identify something that I think is pretty unique in this cryptocurrency landscape. I believe we'd identified a unique hinderance to CryptoNote adoption that nobody really foresaw and many still aren't sure what to do about for the time being. With Bitcoin, there never really was the ability to have coins on the exchange but in no way actually own them, because the core protocol was to a decent enough level where people could take their coins and move them in and out of exchanges freely and never really have a technical reason not to take them out of the exhcange.

The technical pitfall that Cryptonote, and in this case Monero, is going through is that people really want to adopt the coin, and have taken the steps toward doing so, but have placed themselves in a situation where they have to settle for the 'fiat' version of Monero. I think it's obscuring many viewpoints, and believe this is a legitimate and dominating source of the general hostile feedback loop that's taken root in the atmosphere of CryptoNote. People wanted a cryptocurrency, but have to live with a fiat version of it. In turn, this seems to have confused people. They've been dealing with it so long that adoption is literally 'backing up' (cautiously avoiding the term 'stunting'). Perhaps, in hindsight, it would have been best to go with the simple ramswap that the other coins were doing temporarily rather than let it get so backed up? Time will only tell though.

If these technical limitations hadn't been in place, perhaps the adoption cycle would have been less hindered (because, by my definition, people could acutally adopt the coin)? Oh well, hindsight here will never be a foresight for me so what's the point of asking that one.

And it's only at the end of fall, that we discover it was naught but the wind that knew when one particular leaf was to fall from one particular tree, only to land in one distinct spot .. to be left for an eternity, and waste its time in a wait sublime. C0A2A1C4
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October 13, 2014, 08:19:57 PM
 #963

From the perspective of development, we need more use for XMR.
Therefore I am hopeful for Risto's Crypto Kingndom project.

Bitcoin used to have Silk Road which brought constant demand for bitcoins, we need similar things for Monero. I think non-kosher money is not the way we should engage actively but this type of projects like Risto's one.
Those projects, when successfully monetized, will bring large amounts of money (I am talking here about not millions but tens of millions, even hundreds of millions usd). If the game is done optimally and it is marketed the best possible ways. it might be a huge success and bring tons of non-crypto people to Monero-community.

I am not capable to do coding and I do not have financial resources to do big projects like this but those who wish I hope they will do them. If you can code, then do.

Also, what I would like to see is a Monero-dedicated auction site (like ebay but in Moneros), then perhaps e-book library which forces one to buy moneros first in order to borrow e-books etc.
This type of services are the ones that will hoover the excessive Moneros from the Poloniex - now there is a flood of Moneros. Slightly below 20 000 Moneros are daily mined currently and I am sure some miners would like to do something with their moneros instead of directly dumping them into Poloniex.  Roll Eyes

Of course I am assuming here the Monero services are not direct dumpers (like the major btc-merchants are just another way to dump the coins into the fiat-btc-markets).
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October 13, 2014, 08:20:55 PM
Last edit: April 19, 2015, 05:17:16 AM by Nekomata
 #964

XMR is the future.
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October 13, 2014, 08:31:25 PM
Last edit: October 13, 2014, 08:54:29 PM by UnicornFarts
 #965

Quote
Bitcoin used to have Silk Road which brought constant demand for bitcoins, we need similar things for Monero. I think non-kosher money is not the way we should engage actively but this type of projects like Risto's one.
Those projects, when successfully monetized, will bring large amounts of money (I am talking here about not millions but tens of millions, even hundreds of millions usd). If the game is done optimally and it is marketed the best possible ways. it might be a huge success and bring tons of non-crypto people to Monero-community.

Something that hit me today ... and this might be impossible to do.  I think that either Edward Snoden or Wikileaks could see the value in an anonymous cryptocurrency.  These seem like more legitimate causes that could benefit from anonymous currency than the blackmarket or ISIS Funding

In the same breath - getting Snowden or Assange to advertise your anonomous cryptocurrency might be a tough thing to do.  If someone pledged enough XMR to make it worthwhile to get a donate button on wikileaks it might work for advertisement (get picked up on coindesk, etc).

I'd feel more comfortable sending XMR than BTC to either of these projects ...

Edit:  A "Download this miner and user your CPU cycles to support us" could also be an interesting social experiment.  CPU coins allow you to support your cause financially with CPU cycles.
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October 13, 2014, 08:37:43 PM
 #966

Quote
Bitcoin used to have Silk Road which brought constant demand for bitcoins, we need similar things for Monero. I think non-kosher money is not the way we should engage actively but this type of projects like Risto's one.
Those projects, when successfully monetized, will bring large amounts of money (I am talking here about not millions but tens of millions, even hundreds of millions usd). If the game is done optimally and it is marketed the best possible ways. it might be a huge success and bring tons of non-crypto people to Monero-community.

Something that hit me today ... and this might be impossible to do.  I think that either Edward Snoden or Wikileaks could see the value in an anonymous cryptocurrency.  These seem like more legitimate causes that could benefit from anonymous currency than the blackmarket or ISIS Funding

In the same breath - getting Snowden or Assange to advertise your anonomous cryptocurrency might be a tough thing to do.  If someone pledged enough XMR to make it worthwhile to get a donate button on wikileaks it might work for advertisement (get picked up on coindesk, etc).

I'd feel more comfortable sending XMR than BTC to either of these projects ...
+1
These are the things that got me interested in Monero in the first place.
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October 13, 2014, 08:39:43 PM
 #967

Quote
Bitcoin used to have Silk Road which brought constant demand for bitcoins, we need similar things for Monero. I think non-kosher money is not the way we should engage actively but this type of projects like Risto's one.
Those projects, when successfully monetized, will bring large amounts of money (I am talking here about not millions but tens of millions, even hundreds of millions usd). If the game is done optimally and it is marketed the best possible ways. it might be a huge success and bring tons of non-crypto people to Monero-community.

Something that hit me today ... and this might be impossible to do.  I think that either Edward Snoden or Wikileaks could see the value in an anonymous cryptocurrency.  These seem like more legitimate causes that could benefit from anonymous currency than the blackmarket or ISIS Funding

In the same breath - getting Snowden or Assange to advertise your anonomous cryptocurrency might be a tough thing to do.  If someone pledged enough XMR to make it worthwhile to get a donate button on wikileaks it might work for advertisement (get picked up on coindesk, etc).

I'd feel more comfortable sending XMR than BTC to either of these projects ...

+1

I am definetely pro-tipping.
But also Monero in order to create demand needs a new class of bagholders and this is easy to do via merchants selling non-tangible things like e-books, online-games, services etc. which have very small fiat-denominated running costs. Cost efficiency enables bagholding.
After all, the bagholding is the very bagbone of each currency.
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October 13, 2014, 08:43:17 PM
 #968

I created a "wall observer" thread in the Monero forum, if you feel like moving the discussion there..
https://forum.monero.cc/2/economics-and-trading/57/wall-observer-xmr-btc-monero-price-movement-tracking-discussion
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October 13, 2014, 09:24:10 PM
 #969

From the perspective of development, we need more use for XMR.
Therefore I am hopeful for Risto's Crypto Kingndom project.

Bitcoin used to have Silk Road which brought constant demand for bitcoins, we need similar things for Monero. I think non-kosher money is not the way we should engage actively but this type of projects like Risto's one.
Those projects, when successfully monetized, will bring large amounts of money (I am talking here about not millions but tens of millions, even hundreds of millions usd). If the game is done optimally and it is marketed the best possible ways. it might be a huge success and bring tons of non-crypto people to Monero-community.

I am not capable to do coding and I do not have financial resources to do big projects like this but those who wish I hope they will do them. If you can code, then do.

Also, what I would like to see is a Monero-dedicated auction site (like ebay but in Moneros), then perhaps e-book library which forces one to buy moneros first in order to borrow e-books etc.
This type of services are the ones that will hoover the excessive Moneros from the Poloniex - now there is a flood of Moneros. Slightly below 20 000 Moneros are daily mined currently and I am sure some miners would like to do something with their moneros instead of directly dumping them into Poloniex.  Roll Eyes

Of course I am assuming here the Monero services are not direct dumpers (like the major btc-merchants are just another way to dump the coins into the fiat-btc-markets).

Dnaleor is working on this, he is advocating for monero on different darkmarket forums. If you want to help, feel free to PM him!

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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October 14, 2014, 09:01:29 AM
 #970

We'd like to see that aswell. After RedHack, Anonymous should accept Bitcoin & Monero donations. We put our national currency donations to Monero, too. These prices are good for us in the long term.

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October 14, 2014, 10:59:52 AM
 #971

From the perspective of development, we need more use for XMR.
Therefore I am hopeful for Risto's Crypto Kingndom project.

Bitcoin used to have Silk Road which brought constant demand for bitcoins, we need similar things for Monero. I think non-kosher money is not the way we should engage actively but this type of projects like Risto's one.
Those projects, when successfully monetized, will bring large amounts of money (I am talking here about not millions but tens of millions, even hundreds of millions usd). If the game is done optimally and it is marketed the best possible ways. it might be a huge success and bring tons of non-crypto people to Monero-community.

I am not capable to do coding and I do not have financial resources to do big projects like this but those who wish I hope they will do them. If you can code, then do.

Also, what I would like to see is a Monero-dedicated auction site (like ebay but in Moneros), then perhaps e-book library which forces one to buy moneros first in order to borrow e-books etc.
This type of services are the ones that will hoover the excessive Moneros from the Poloniex - now there is a flood of Moneros. Slightly below 20 000 Moneros are daily mined currently and I am sure some miners would like to do something with their moneros instead of directly dumping them into Poloniex.  Roll Eyes

Of course I am assuming here the Monero services are not direct dumpers (like the major btc-merchants are just another way to dump the coins into the fiat-btc-markets).

Dnaleor is working on this, he is advocating for monero on different darkmarket forums. If you want to help, feel free to PM him!

Personally I am against criminals and non-kosher money.
Therefore I am not willing to help in this.
I do not want to participate in sin.

When I said Monero needs SR type of businesses I didn't mean non-kosher money but businesses that have low running costs and are therefore able to become a bagholder - just like SR. I did not refer to dirty money here but clean money with businesses that are able to store coins without pouring them out into exchanges for fiat.
Risto's Crypto Kingdomn is this type of business - or Monero-auction house (where you need to pay your fees in form of xmr). I have plenty of this type of ideas but I do not have capability to start running them mainly because of lack of it-skills.

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October 14, 2014, 04:27:24 PM
 #972

Not looking good for XMR. Order book around 100 BTC - the lowest in months. By now even the most enthusiastic see there is something wrong and they are clinging to their last hopes to see price reversal to confirm their bias.

If there will be no quick capitulation the inflation & the lack of adoption itself will do the job. Lack of the adoption is the most worrisome and I doubt new game/online wallet/GUI could save the day.
I would be suprised if the game will see many users without the financial incentives for trying out. The game can be prepared for other coins in a few weeks and all magic is lost.
GUI is only important for sofisticated users (currently around 100-200 people) or maybe creating offline wallets as no sane person will be downloading the whole blockchain. Electrum wallet would be a major breakthrough.
Online wallet is the most important news, but lets wait and see.
I don't know if there is currently any XMR market available or in making on tor.

I wonder when the first whale will capitulate. I know some of them bought below 0.001, but most of them above 0.003. In short, I see prices much lower.



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darlidada
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October 14, 2014, 04:34:51 PM
 #973

Not looking good for XMR. Order book around 100 BTC - the lowest in months. By now even the most enthusiastic see there is something wrong and they are clinging to their last hopes to see price reversal to confirm their bias.

If there will be no quick capitulation the inflation & the lack of adoption itself will do the job. Lack of the adoption is the most worrisome and I doubt new game/online wallet/GUI could save the day.
I would be suprised if the game will see many users without the financial incentives for trying out. The game can be prepared for other coins in a few weeks and all magic is lost.
GUI is only important for sofisticated users (currently around 100-200 people) or maybe creating offline wallets as no sane person will be downloading the whole blockchain. Electrum wallet would be a major breakthrough.
Online wallet is the most important news, but lets wait and see.
I don't know if there is currently any XMR market available or in making on tor.

I wonder when the first whale will capitulate. I know some of them bought below 0.001, but most of them above 0.003. In short, I see prices much lower.

last time price and bids were this low was during the 0.0023 bottom. people were silently accumulating. aminorex and rpietila where nowhere to be seen. operating in the shadows. i remember asking a friend to punch me in the face for not buying more around that time. lets hope the same thing happens.

rumours has it a webwallet is arriving in 2 weeks
fact is that XMR is #1 on coinvote on cryptsy and will be added soon. this is not big per se. but this is big considering BCX is the one responsible for the low price with his fake attack fud. this man is friend with cryptsy. he advises them. only way what happened the last month made sense is if BCX bought a lot of xmr.

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October 14, 2014, 04:35:29 PM
 #974

We need to break 3.2 mBTC ASAP
I hope it happens...





About darknet: i don't know places were crypto is bought and sold. Maybe some whale (i'm not a whale) should "open a shop"

Searching for a trusted escrow service? Check my trust. I use a Trezor device for my escrow services, so your coins are safe. Fee: 0.5% or 0.05 BTC, whichever is lower
I support the largest public transparent p2p ledger Bitcoin (16TwXyEmpz7xKHbyVufZECXGFmUH9wHUyW) and the best private fungible digital cash Monero (dnaleor.weuse.cash)
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UnicornFarts
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October 14, 2014, 04:37:48 PM
 #975

Quote
but this is big considering BCX is the one responsible for the low price with his fake attack fud. this man is friend with cryptsy. he advises them. only way what happened the last month made sense is if BCX bought a lot of xmr.

This is simply not true.  At the height of the fear - it did a flashcrash to .281 (I know because I purchased some).  What we've got now is a constant supply that is over running demand.
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October 14, 2014, 04:41:08 PM
 #976

Quote
but this is big considering BCX is the one responsible for the low price with his fake attack fud. this man is friend with cryptsy. he advises them. only way what happened the last month made sense is if BCX bought a lot of xmr.

This is simply not true.  At the height of the fear - it did a flashcrash to .281 (I know because I purchased some).  What we've got now is a constant supply that is over running demand.

i dont understand the relationship between what i've said and what you said
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October 14, 2014, 05:08:14 PM
 #977

Damn nice price, been away for a while and see this Cheesy

Please dump some more and fill in my buy orders!
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October 14, 2014, 05:12:04 PM
 #978


pinky is an anti-xmr fearmonger, its one thing to not like xmr and want if to fail, its another make these feelings public with nonsense.

im not worried about price, if monero cant keep it up it will crash, maybe more will buy even lower


Ignore at your own peril:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqzcCfUglws



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October 14, 2014, 05:29:18 PM
 #979

Pinky I see you post in other coins' thread as well trying to dissuade people.  Thank you for your altruism. 

Which coin of yours would you like us to buy?

 
Come-In-Behind
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October 14, 2014, 05:53:17 PM
 #980

Pinky I see you post in other coins' thread as well trying to dissuade people.  Thank you for your altruism. 

Which coin of yours would you like us to buy?

 

Pinkycoin of course.
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