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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
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pinky
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October 14, 2014, 06:42:16 PM
 #981

Pinky I see you post in other coins' thread as well trying to dissuade people.


Hm, which other coins? Dissuade? AFAIK I am only writing in BBR/XMR threads.

Below are my posts in this thread in the last 30 days. Have I been very wrong? I think not.
You can use ignore button to avoid reading post from me in the future and live happily in your dreamworld.


The bubble has popped. Only whales were buying XMR - other small time investors that really matters and drive the market up don't give shit about XMR as they see other coins with more potential and less risk. Growth has now virtually stopped and is around 1% per week (IMO strong bear market for any coin) and prices are just too high to sustain 0.003 level for much longer (every rally is smaller and got hammered big time, longterm trendline is broken). But hey, I might be totally wrong.

Last two attacks were fixed quickly and trend was not hurt, now we did break the trendline. Average investor is an idiot and will buy things because everyone else is buying. They don't do any research, because facts would destroy their dreams of no risk/high gain investment. There is a big difference now, because one whale dumped coins and people got really scared - emotions (fear and greed) coupled with anticipation is what drives any market up and down!

But hey, I might be completly wrong, we'll see.

Market found out how risky XMR really is, hence it is very likely that adoption has slowed dramatically in the last week and current price doesn't support inflation rate. I don't believe we have seen the lows yet.



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October 14, 2014, 06:46:32 PM
 #982

Below are my posts in this thread in the last 30 days. Have I been very wrong?
Yes, most of those sentences are wrong, overstated, speaking for others not yourself, and without basis.
It rhetoric.
I think not.
I'll give you that one though.

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October 14, 2014, 06:56:08 PM
 #983

Quote
The bubble has popped. Only whales were buying XMR - other small time investors that really matters and drive the market up don't give shit about XMR as they see other coins with  more potential and less risk. slicker marketing gimmicks & false assurances.
I do agree with the former part.  The whales have (mostly) done their buying and now the market goes sideways and down while everyone wonders why.  The next step would be creating demand which would need to be a combination of

. Bitcoin user persecution via nosey government (tax fraud, drug busts, China bans, etc)

. A wallet + database

. A growing acceptance of crypto in general (vs the current stagnation).  Everyone I know now knows about bitcoin without me telling them.  None of them show much interest in it.  Adoption has ceased as everyone knows and anyone who wants to use it is.  This is much the same with XMR.  Everyone who wants to use it / be in on it now is.  Most people who own bitcoin and are semi regulars in the crypto world know about it.

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October 14, 2014, 08:05:47 PM
 #984

Most people who own bitcoin and are semi regulars in the crypto world know about it.



This sums it up. The average joe is completely clueless about Bitcoin, let alone alterantive cryptocurrencies. If they don't see a need to own and use them, then this shit is going nowhere. We'll see tho, what something seemed like an utopia getting mainstream in the past, finally got worldwide adoption. We just have to hope cryptos become trendy as hell in the future.
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October 14, 2014, 08:47:34 PM
 #985

. A growing acceptance of crypto in general (vs the current stagnation).  Everyone I know now knows about bitcoin without me telling them.  None of them show much interest in it.  Adoption has ceased as everyone knows and anyone who wants to use it is.  This is much the same with XMR.  Everyone who wants to use it / be in on it now is.  Most people who own bitcoin and are semi regulars in the crypto world know about it.

Yes I describe this as a crypto dark age. There just isn't much going on in terms of opening of new markets or increased demand for the technology (broadly speaking I include both XMR and BTC here). Look at the BTC chart over the past 10 months. In the moment it seems like a lot is going on with daily/weekly pumps and dumps, China bans, MtGox implosion, but zoomed out you just see stagnation and slow decline.

It will take something new and important to break out of this pattern.
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October 14, 2014, 09:05:54 PM
 #986

. A growing acceptance of crypto in general (vs the current stagnation).  Everyone I know now knows about bitcoin without me telling them.  None of them show much interest in it.  Adoption has ceased as everyone knows and anyone who wants to use it is.  This is much the same with XMR.  Everyone who wants to use it / be in on it now is.  Most people who own bitcoin and are semi regulars in the crypto world know about it.

Yes I describe this as a crypto dark age. There just isn't much going on in terms of opening of new markets or increased demand for the technology (broadly speaking I include both XMR and BTC here). Look at the BTC chart over the past 10 months. In the moment it seems like a lot is going on with daily/weekly pumps and dumps, China bans, MtGox implosion, but zoomed out you just see stagnation and slow decline.

It will take something new and important to break out of this pattern.

Most people among my connections are crypto-virgins and as I have been talking them about bitcoin, they answear me in two ways: 1) It is a bubble, I wish I knew it when it costed like sub 10 usd 2) Bitcoin - so what (meaning: it doesn't bring anything new into my life, I have credit card which works fine and I have a bank account which also works fine)?

In my opinion, bitcoin is facing now huge challenges, it actually doesn't bring anything new for average Joe since via Credit cards you can do all the things you are doing via bitcoin. Personally the only thing which attracts me to bitcoin is the price increases - there is not enough essence in "innovation".
People who adopt bitcoin are doing it mostly due political reasons (they are liberals). Now as all the liberals have adopted bitcoin, how should it change its ideology to attract the masses who are not liberals.
What I am trying to say is that bitcoin adoption is based too much on political ideology instead of tech innovation (which it doesn't obviously have radically enough).

Monero is a right step forward. There are people who simply want to be background with their money and they want to hide their wealth.
Bitcoins can be confiscated but it is much harder to confiscate Moneros due to anonymity feature.
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October 15, 2014, 12:53:06 AM
 #987

Monero down over 30% since I made my last call (that it was going to keep going down).

... I'm just trying to wrap my brain around the number of wrong predictions Reptilia, SaddamBitcoin and Smooth have made since then. It must be in the hundreds.

Yet you guys will keep listening to them like they are the new apostles. Why? There's so many more interesting and novel coins out there with organic movements behind them, why get stuck on a midlevel cryptonote fork?

Getting suckered in by brainwashing, a false sense of hope and community aren't good excuses.

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October 15, 2014, 12:55:26 AM
 #988

no.

Actually it was seeing one of your comments elsewhere that prompted me to write the above one.

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October 15, 2014, 01:00:45 AM
 #989

no.

Actually it was seeing one of your comments elsewhere that prompted me to write the above one.

Actually it was seeing your FUD that prompted me to no.

dont you have to write about backdoors on Monero.

I have no idea how it feels to have lost as much money on cryptocurrency (or any investment for that matter) as you have. I just wouldn't want to wish the same pain on others. Would you?

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October 15, 2014, 01:12:11 AM
 #990


I dont spend my time trying to convince anyone to buy anything,

LOL. Good one.

but when someone like you goes around spewing fud I have to do something about it, you could hurt people that may take your comments without a grain of salt, you wouldn't want that right?

On the contrary, I'm trying to warn people from getting involved with a coin I personally consider to be a scam (XMR). Even if its not a scam, it would be a mediocre-to-terrible investment thusfar, depending on when you bought in.

And if the people you are referring to that I could potentially "hurt" are the devs and bagholders, then good. Teach them a lesson for trying to sell garbage for a living. This coin sucks. The faster it disappears, the better.

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October 15, 2014, 01:20:36 AM
 #991

We're not really comparing XMR notes with a BBR bagholder, are we? 
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October 15, 2014, 02:02:16 AM
 #992

Predicting price movement with any accuracy is not something that can be done without inside knowledge, serious math, or both.

What we can do is look at the ways to catalyze growth, adoption, acceptance and make things happen.

South American nations are ripe for this NOW.  Venezuela has the highest bond rate on the planet, currency failures imminent.
Brazil, Ecuador, and Argentina are right behind.
Argentina especially has a growing middle class.  They are trying to save for their children's college education, but the banks are no good for that because the currency devalues faster than the interest rates.

So they buy cars and stick them in the garage under a tarp because it is a "store of value".  Anything solid.  They'd get gold and silver if they could get their hands on it.
Crypto currencies are VERY hot there.

Currency controls in Asia areas make it a slam dunk.
The USA is not the best market for it.

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October 15, 2014, 06:49:21 AM
 #993

Monero down over 30% since I made my last call (that it was going to keep going down).

... I'm just trying to wrap my brain around the number of wrong predictions Reptilia, SaddamBitcoin and Smooth have made since then. It must be in the hundreds.

Yet you guys will keep listening to them like they are the new apostles. Why? There's so many more interesting and novel coins out there with organic movements behind them, why get stuck on a midlevel cryptonote fork?

Getting suckered in by brainwashing, a false sense of hope and community aren't good excuses.

You remind me of some bum I saw out on the street the other day. He started off by insulting me, then he said I was a "slave of the New World Order".

Shortly after he asked if I could "lend him some money" so he could get a sandwich.
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October 15, 2014, 07:25:56 AM
 #994

It's been a rough few days for many coins it seems.  BBR just took another hit.  Dark, btcdark, dark(duck)note, doge, bitsharesX are all down significantly.  Even ltc is down some.

Although this is not real analysis, these are coins I check every day so to me it seems obvious.

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October 15, 2014, 07:47:10 AM
 #995

We're not really comparing XMR notes with a BBR bagholder, are we?  

I hope you're not talking to me. I wouldn't touch BBR for one of the main reasons I don't like Monero -- its got a silly name. Boolberry? No thanks.


You remind me of some bum I saw out on the street the other day. He started off by insulting me, then he said I was a "slave of the New World Order".

Shortly after he asked if I could "lend him some money" so he could get a sandwich.

Really? That's weird. I don't think you guys are the new world order at all.

But anyways... speculation... speculation...

If XMR falls to 2 and holds, _then_ I would say it might be a good time to buy. However there are other catalysts, known unknowns if you will (in addition to some known knowns), which may collapse XMR over the long run.

Without fresh blood, real-world integration or the saving grace of a whale, XMR is doomed to die a slow death. Don't worry, so are most coins. Its just that people spent an ungodly amount of time fretting over this one.

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October 15, 2014, 09:05:09 AM
 #996

We're not really comparing XMR notes with a BBR bagholder, are we?  

I hope you're not talking to me. I wouldn't touch BBR for one of the main reasons I don't like Monero -- its got a silly name. Boolberry? No thanks.


You remind me of some bum I saw out on the street the other day. He started off by insulting me, then he said I was a "slave of the New World Order".

Shortly after he asked if I could "lend him some money" so he could get a sandwich.

Really? That's weird. I don't think you guys are the new world order at all.

But anyways... speculation... speculation...

If XMR falls to 2 and holds, _then_ I would say it might be a good time to buy. However there are other catalysts, known unknowns if you will (in addition to some known knowns), which may collapse XMR over the long run.

Without fresh blood, real-world integration or the saving grace of a whale, XMR is doomed to die a slow death. Don't worry, so are most coins. Its just that people spent an ungodly amount of time fretting over this one.

Dude come on. There's a difference between being a slave of the New World Order and being the New World Order. I would expect someone coming from the UK to have a better grasp of language.

But anyways... speculation... speculation...

The fact that you're predicting the doom of all coins kinda invalidates your argument. It's true however that there is a lot of buzz around Monero, and when altcoins slide like as is the case now, people seemingly aren't able to make the logical connection between the general slide and a more specific slide. I suppose this is punctuated by lazy investors who really don't have a clue, and when they panic their profits away they immediately look for a scapegoat to blame.
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October 15, 2014, 09:56:02 AM
 #997

a masive dump on polo, whole orderbook down to 25 btc!!

I bought some at that dump. Today all my buy-orders got filled.
One at 265, one at 250 and the third at 230. Now I put some additional buys. I do not care if they do not get filled.

As soon as Monero becomes mainstream, it is easy to sell those coins to stronger hands.

I am sorry for the seller who sold me.  Cry His hands were simply too shaky.

The good thing about monero is that there are real world projects going on (gaming industry).

I agree with the criticism that Monero needs adoption outside the crypto-community.
To be honest, I believe more in wider Monero adoption than wider bitcoin adoption. Bitcoin is like a tyronosaoros Rex which have died.

When Monero is more mainstream I am expecting mass exodus from Bitcoin-community towards Monero. However then it might be too late already.  Embarrassed

To become mainstream, the coin doesn't need to be technically the best possible but only satisfying.

However in my honest opinion we are talking way too little about the inflation aspect. There might arise a huge arguments of community premine if the coin is almost mined when the wider population will enter into the community. Obviously we do not need the current inflation rate for now, but I could see for example the rest of Monero mintage divided more evenly over the coming 100 years. This will guarantee there is not significiant mining done even after tens of years.
By this we can make Monero The Crypto coin since there will be more life expectancy.
TrueCryptonaire
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October 15, 2014, 10:39:17 AM
 #998

The good thing about these low prices are that you can efficiently lower your average buying price. I have exploited this opprtunity since I bought the majority of my coins just under 400 and now I am able to buy sub 3 levels. Why not.  Roll Eyes
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October 15, 2014, 02:14:13 PM
 #999

The good thing about these low prices are that you can efficiently lower your average buying price. I have exploited this opprtunity since I bought the majority of my coins just under 400 and now I am able to buy sub 3 levels. Why not.  Roll Eyes

that was an impressive dump .... wish i'd had some low buy orders
Its About Sharing
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October 15, 2014, 02:17:34 PM
 #1000

I really wonder if the "owners" of Mintpal are dumping our XMR on Poloniex. I had quite a few coins there that I hope to get back but I wonder if they were already sold.
Awfully suspicious for the website to be down after a spontaneous upgrade for a week, and then they file bankruptcy. They say we have till the end of the month to withdraw funds.
Gox 2.0?

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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