[XMR] Monero Speculation

[freebud]

the only reason I am not buying more is that there will probably be a serious competitor in the next 6-8 months. otherwise I would buy much more.

there is place for one serious private ledger and that one will be very very powerful in the long term


moneros chances to be that one are quite high

If there is no GUI wallet before this then It will all be downhill.

Hey look I'm in a Moderated topic. This post will be deleted because I'm not delusional.

That's not fair, and not how moderation in Monero happened in the past. Obvious trolling is deleted, rational criticism and speculation is not.

[smooth]

Causes for the price decline (in no particular order):

1. Overall crypto "bear market"
2. No visible progress on DB, official GUI
3. Lack of development of an "economy"
4. BCX threats
5. Crowded market of "anonymous coins"
6. Demand insufficient to absorb emission at previous prices
7. Concern over emission being too fast and not changed
8. Concern over emission being changed

I think Crypto Kingdom is fantastic (#3 above) and we need at least dozen more initiatives like that.

[nakaone]

the only reason I am not buying more is that there will probably be a serious competitor in the next 6-8 months. otherwise I would buy much more.

there is place for one serious private ledger and that one will be very very powerful in the long term


moneros chances to be that one are quite high

If there is no GUI wallet before this then It will all be downhill.

Hey look I'm in a Moderated topic. This post will be deleted because I'm not delusional.

I wrote long-term due to this.

my argument at this point of time there is no real competitor to xmr

there is darkcoin, which is technically inferior and very close to the already existing mixing technology in bitcoin

there is bbr, which is at least from the technical perspective on the same level. that said bbr came second, which is bad luck and so the userbase is maybe around 10% of the existing userbase in xmr.

there is anc which is in alpha stage. the "mixing" will probably even be superior but what is missing is the blockchain obfuscation (I am not entirely sure on technical aspects of a zerocoin implementation).

I think all others can be seen as pump and dump at this point - maybe I do darknote wrong, but they were the third implementation of cryptonote protocol....

I hedge my privatecoin portfolio with these three currencies, but at this point xmr seems to be leading. the most eminemt question for xmrs' long term success will be the question of how well zerocash will be implement and if it works. I got doubts that it works properly and that people trust a system they do not understand but we will see.

I have no doubts that there will be a decentralized private ledger which will be huge the reason for this is that I cannot see any other way to create something like this. And this niche is huge.   

[Its About Sharing]

the only reason I am not buying more is that there will probably be a serious competitor in the next 6-8 months. otherwise I would buy much more.

there is place for one serious private ledger and that one will be very very powerful in the long term


moneros chances to be that one are quite high

If there is no GUI wallet before this then It will all be downhill.

Hey look I'm in a Moderated topic. This post will be deleted because I'm not delusional.

I wrote long-term due to this.

my argument at this point of time there is no real competitor to xmr

there is darkcoin, which is technically inferior and very close to the already existing mixing technology in bitcoin

there is bbr, which is at least from the technical perspective on the same level. that said bbr came second, which is bad luck and so the userbase is maybe around 10% of the existing userbase in xmr.

there is anc which is in alpha stage. the "mixing" will probably even be superior but what is missing is the blockchain obfuscation (I am not entirely sure on technical aspects of a zerocoin implementation).

I think all others can be seen as pump and dump at this point - maybe I do darknote wrong, but they were the third implementation of cryptonote protocol....

I hedge my privatecoin portfolio with these three currencies, but at this point xmr seems to be leading. the most eminemt question for xmrs' long term success will be the question of how well zerocash will be implement and if it works. I got doubts that it works properly and that people trust a system they do not understand but we will see.

I have no doubts that there will be a decentralized private ledger which will be huge the reason for this is that I cannot see any other way to create something like this. And this niche is huge.  

Well said. It is in part a gamble at this point for the developers/holders of XMR. They have a clear lead in the anonymous space (technically speaking, DRK still has a following).
The gamble is that not having a wallet is slowing adoption imo. The gamble is that if a competitor comes out before Xmas (the due date for the Wallet), then we have a problem.
Not sure that anything big is due out before then, but this space is hard to predict. For sure, the Wallet (and DB) have to be done by then...

If we can maintain what we have built till Xmas, I also think that is when BTC is going to begin its run up. (My GANN points at this...)

IAS

[rpietila]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

[UnicornFarts]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

where's this rumor?

i think you pushing it so hard is probably the biggest negative indicator I've seen.  your posts are crossing from suspicious over optimism into desperation.

[smooth]

I'm curious why people think the (two) third party GUI wallets are so insufficient they are hurting the market. For comparison purposes, most Bitcoin users today use third party wallets such as Electrum (or web wallets -- also third party). I would expect this to be more normal than not as a coin matures.

1. Don't like
2. Don't trust
3. Don't know about
4. Can't get to work
5. Doesn't support preferred platform (the .NET one is Windows-only; supposedly the other one is cross platform, but I haven't tried it)
6. other?

where's this rumor?

On this thread apparently.

[BanditryAndLoot]

6. other?

6. Not governmentally subsidized, approved, provided, or licensed. So many people have had to settle for using the fiat version of the coin found on exchanges for so many months now that they feel that the potential profit they can take by hyping a gov't GUI is actually owed to them. I'm sorry.

[Okurkabinladin]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

How reliable is the source of that rumor, if I may ask?

[UnicornFarts]

I'm curious why people think the (two) third party GUI wallets are so insufficient they are hurting the market. For comparison purposes, most Bitcoin users today use third party wallets such as Electrum (or web wallets -- also third party). I would expect this to be more normal than not as a coin matures.

1. Don't like
2. Don't trust
3. Don't know about
4. Can't get to work
5. Doesn't support preferred platform (the .NET one is Windows-only; supposedly the other one is cross platform, but I haven't tried it)
6. other?

where's this rumor?

On this thread apparently.

so rptelia's post is the basis for the rumor?

[smooth]

so rptelia's post is the basis for the rumor?

It is now!

[freebud]

I'm curious why people think the (two) third party GUI wallets are so insufficient they are hurting the market. For comparison purposes, most Bitcoin users today use third party wallets such as Electrum (or web wallets -- also third party). I would expect this to be more normal than not as a coin matures.

1. Don't like
2. Don't trust
3. Don't know about
4. Can't get to work
5. Doesn't support preferred platform (the .NET one is Windows-only; supposedly the other one is cross platform, but I haven't tried it)
6. other?

where's this rumor?

On this thread apparently.

To me it's mostly about confidence in the dev team. I want to know that there is a clear roadmap, and what is promised, is being delivered. As far as I understand the developers that are doing the GUI are not those who handled the crisis, still fluffypony said it was put on the backburner, which I don't quite get.

[UnicornFarts]

The market seems to be judging the news as of little consequence

[Nekomata]

XMR is the future.

[saddambitcoin]

truth be told i'm currently down about -40% on monero at current dumper prices

but i will tell you that i do not care. i have been here before, these times only strengthen the resolve : D

[Its About Sharing]

I'm curious why people think the (two) third party GUI wallets are so insufficient they are hurting the market. For comparison purposes, most Bitcoin users today use third party wallets such as Electrum (or web wallets -- also third party). I would expect this to be more normal than not as a coin matures.

1. Don't like
2. Don't trust
3. Don't know about
4. Can't get to work
5. Doesn't support preferred platform (the .NET one is Windows-only; supposedly the other one is cross platform, but I haven't tried it)
6. other?

I don't think the BitcoinQT wallet is one for the masses. As we can see now, that is more a hardcore wallet due to the space and interface (though it has gotten better).
(I prefer a light wallet like Electrum for a variety of reasons.)

For me, I wanted something that would install easily on my MAC. I am an ex IT guy and I couldn't install the simple wallet from source - I spent a few hours and just gave up trying to get it to run right. I did get it running by just double clicking on the downloaded files, and I did download the blockchain, etc. but I wanted something from source. Having something visual with more options for privacy and such is important imo.

A bigger reason though, is that I think we need something a bit more attractive, just to attract the average person AND keep up with other offerings (other coins). Feature sets are important. Comparing wallets will inevitably be a part of the selection process and if something like Cloak, Dark, etc. (even though INFERIOR) start to take the lead then the average person will be none the wiser.

Just my perspectives and you made some good points, but I think we have to approach this from a "common" user perspective, not expert or power user. I realize it is early in the game, so I don't mean to get ahead of ourselves but I feel we have to stay on top of things to be able to secure that #2 position, and we are a bit down the list, though technically a GREAT coin. So, sooner rather than later on the wallet is what I feel.

IAS

[OrientA]

Wallet is the main way to connect to ordinary users. So it is very important.

[NeuroticFish]

I think that the issue is not (only) the wallet.

The blockchain is still huge and make the daemon slow down everything. Imho that should be the first to be fixed. I was *very* happy when the devs decided to take a look on that, but I saw no news on that matter for quite long time.

[dnaleor]

its not really price that worries me, its the very low bid side. and its not only low just for 1 day like usual, its now down since days, liquidity is missing.
i know bitcoin has an even harder ratio, but if all xmr are 11000 btc and we only have 100 on the major exchange to offer it does not feel right, not at this young stage.,

I think part of the large "ask" side is people holding their coins on polo because they don't want to use the wallet.

[BanditryAndLoot]

So rather than overcoming a 15 minute learning gap, we'd rather place our money in someone else's API, who is in control of likely 7.5% of the mint, even after they've been hacked in the last year, and Mt. Gox, and everything else? I'm not trying to be accusatory here (I am part of this group for the moment), just stating what I see.

So collectively, I see that many people (With at least a representative ~7.5% of the mint) would rather have point-and-click operation with no functionality (as the 'coins' you see on the exchange are just representative of the value that you're owed, and not actual value tokens), over typing an average of five words on a command line with full functionality of what cryptonote offers you?

I have to ask, for speculation purposes, what is it, exactly, that people think they have bought?

Additionally, I'd like to point out that I think lower prices are great for higher adoption. So, do people think adoption would suffer if price rises upon release of a GUI wallet, or would adoption fuel a rise in price after release of a GUI? So, if the GUI was already 'priced in', could adoption suffer because the price increased to matched the hype related to a government GUI, or if the GUI was somehow prevented from being 'priced in' before its actual release would adoption then be helped?

Further, what do people view adoption as? Is adoption the moment the software is downloaded and run on your computer, or the moment you click buy on poloniex? I think that's a very important question. My personal view is that adoption is the moment the software is downloaded and run on my computer, and then used for its intended purpose. As this is a currency, the intended purpose would likely be to transact with it. So, as a third question, could adoption be the moment you transact with the software on your computer?

So, other than exchanges and the pending MEW game, what can I use this for to transact in?

Edit: Consider that you can purchase plots of land on the moon right now. Did you buy this as a gag for friends and family, did you purchase with the intent to hold onto it to pass down to your children in case the plot of land becomes claimable, or do you really think you're gonna go and move to the moon tomorrow? Maybe this is a weak analogy, but I consider that anyone who has not downloaded this software and used it on their computer to have not really adopted the coin (yet ), in the same way they don't intend to move to the Moon.