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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312652 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
futureofbitcoin
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March 24, 2015, 02:49:08 PM
 #3861


Yes, it does. I only discovered Monero (well, rediscovered it from last May) because of Crypto Kingdom. Since then, I have put XX,XXX XMR into the game where it will stay.  I think the ratio of people to gamers in the crypto crowd is significantly higher than most demographics, so this has a great chance of taking off. 

Plus it's FUN!  Finally I can do something with my crypto that is something I would do outside of crypto. I can't underscore the importance of that-I believe that alone will bring the players. Oh, and they might discover Monero as a side benefit Wink

I don't want to say bad things about the game, and I plan on playing it myself once the online version is out. That said, I think the way it's advertised is extremely misleading. Take the bolded for example.

Of course that's where it will stay, because you don't have an option of taking it out. The XMR is given to the developers.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.
It doesn't lock up anything, because the developers can take the money and use it for whatever they want, because it is now theirs. They are selling virtual items for their game, and while you can trade it with other people (assuming other people want it), the developers already sold these virtual items, the money is already theirs. Unlike an exchange, which may tie up funds because the exchange has obligation to let you cash out, this is a game where the money you spent is gone.

IMO, the items in the game, whether it's moneritos or ckg or land or stones should not be advertised as "worth X XMR", which makes it seem as they're pegged to XMR or something. But really, they're not. It's no different from buying stuff from a cash shop in any other game.
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March 24, 2015, 03:08:06 PM
 #3862

monero is currently the number one PROVABLY anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Fixed^.   Smiley

Don't fret about 0cash, it's still vaporware and involves substantial trade-offs of its own.

CryptoNote tech & whitepaper came out of nowhere. Maybe next months someone with a strange pseudonym will release an even better whitepaper.

Have a better whitepaper and implementation only goes so far.  Arguably inferior products win in their sectors all the time (cough, Windows, cough).

A real Monero-killer would have to be so much better that it overcomes our 1st mover and large network effect advantages.

Possible, but not likely, because XMR already does exactly what it says on the box, which is good enough to satisfy the anon market.

XMR is a moving target for competition because it's constantly improving and the ecosystem is blossoming, making it even harder to leapfrog.   Cool


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March 24, 2015, 03:49:28 PM
 #3863


Yes, it does. I only discovered Monero (well, rediscovered it from last May) because of Crypto Kingdom. Since then, I have put XX,XXX XMR into the game where it will stay.  I think the ratio of people to gamers in the crypto crowd is significantly higher than most demographics, so this has a great chance of taking off. 

Plus it's FUN!  Finally I can do something with my crypto that is something I would do outside of crypto. I can't underscore the importance of that-I believe that alone will bring the players. Oh, and they might discover Monero as a side benefit Wink

I don't want to say bad things about the game, and I plan on playing it myself once the online version is out. That said, I think the way it's advertised is extremely misleading. Take the bolded for example.

Of course that's where it will stay, because you don't have an option of taking it out. The XMR is given to the developers.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.
It doesn't lock up anything, because the developers can take the money and use it for whatever they want, because it is now theirs. They are selling virtual items for their game, and while you can trade it with other people (assuming other people want it), the developers already sold these virtual items, the money is already theirs. Unlike an exchange, which may tie up funds because the exchange has obligation to let you cash out, this is a game where the money you spent is gone.

IMO, the items in the game, whether it's moneritos or ckg or land or stones should not be advertised as "worth X XMR", which makes it seem as they're pegged to XMR or something. But really, they're not. It's no different from buying stuff from a cash shop in any other game.

I have already talked with tf2honeybadger and asked him about the progress of the CKG (in-game gold) <-> XMR listing. He confirmed that it is happening. I have also heard this from the Crypto Kingdom people as well, so as far as I am concerned, there will be a medium of getting money in and also out in the near future.  My statement was meant to imply that I would keep the XMR in the game even after that bridge to poloniex is implemented.

As far as things being pegged to XMR, they are being pegged to XMR because the plans for implementation of a CKG to XMR listing is nearly complete.  I don't know about you, but if something is assumed to be having value soon, wouldn't it make sense to discuss it with that value attached to the items? Just because the tech isn't 100% complete doesn't mean the in-game assets are worthless.

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March 24, 2015, 04:10:45 PM
 #3864

Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?
The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?
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March 24, 2015, 04:18:48 PM
 #3865

Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?
The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?

This is unfortunately not possible at the moment.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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March 24, 2015, 04:27:59 PM
 #3866

Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?
The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?

This is unfortunately not possible at the moment.

I guess we should make this coin (Monero) shine like a sun then.  Shocked
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March 24, 2015, 05:07:48 PM
Last edit: March 24, 2015, 05:33:30 PM by futureofbitcoin
 #3867


I have already talked with tf2honeybadger and asked him about the progress of the CKG (in-game gold) <-> XMR listing. He confirmed that it is happening. I have also heard this from the Crypto Kingdom people as well, so as far as I am concerned, there will be a medium of getting money in and also out in the near future.  My statement was meant to imply that I would keep the XMR in the game even after that bridge to poloniex is implemented.

As far as things being pegged to XMR, they are being pegged to XMR because the plans for implementation of a CKG to XMR listing is nearly complete.  I don't know about you, but if something is assumed to be having value soon, wouldn't it make sense to discuss it with that value attached to the items? Just because the tech isn't 100% complete doesn't mean the in-game assets are worthless.

Right, you will eventually be able to trade CKG, which is what I said; you can trade the virtual game items freely with other people. But you are trading it with other players, you are not converting game items back to XMR through the game. The developers have no obligation and likely won't trade back the XMR they earned for virtual game items.

Every time the developers, i.e the "king" sells stuff, land, titles, whatever new content there may be, the "real" money, i.e XMR is siphoned off from the game.

I find it hard to explain my point through text, but CKG is not pegged to XMR just as USD is not pegged to gold. Just as the government can print USD whenever they want, the "king" can "print" land, titles, new content etc, and in all likelihood CKG's value will go way down compared to XMR in the long term.

EDIT: If we assume that X amount of money will go through the game in its lifetime, then the amount of money IN the game will tend to 0 as T tends to infinity, because money that goes to the king is sunk.

This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.


EDIT2: Again, I plan on playing the game, but my main point is that the game is just a game, like any other game out there designed to make money for its designers, with possibly the side effect of helping monero become more known.

Right now, it is really trying to advertise itself as almost a sort investment, which it simply isn't. I know, in the game thread they did say that its just a game and all that blah. But the rest of the post and posts after it really downplays that point, and tries to entice people by saying how xxx is worth thousands of XMR. I'm not really comfortable about that. It's like a scam company putting in a little fine print and continues to try to trick people.
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March 24, 2015, 05:22:47 PM
 #3868

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?

0 USD  Grin but let's not be overconfident.

The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?

I don't think any serious darkmarket is foolish enough to start using DRK. If LEOs can ddos tor-nodes (?) to make deepweb busts, I'm sure they can do things to master nodes...
BTW: Doesn't xmr.to allow super anonymous buying for the people who like privacy?

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March 24, 2015, 05:31:30 PM
 #3869

Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?

I dont think its a correct thing to do start war agains anything, like we all know monero at the momment still at mutch early stage than darkcoin, they are using +/- 6 years of work on bitcoin and on all other altcoins, on the other side monero is 1 year old and monero is based on something that im is not even 2 years old.. so we have mutch work to do... starting fresh is not a bad thing, we as comunity can and should develop a new way to use cryptocurrency...
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March 24, 2015, 05:33:29 PM
 #3870

BTW: Doesn't xmr.to allow super anonymous buying for the people who like privacy?

Thats right, i already use the service to buy some things on the internet and its realy cool to feel 100% annonymus.. long time no feel like this on the internet Smiley
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March 24, 2015, 05:52:03 PM
 #3871


This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.

If you weren't aware, moneritos are pegged to XRM; 1 XRM = 1,000,000 moneritos. The price of gold in-game is fluctuating all the time. If you were to buy gold in-game with your in-game assets, you could then transfer it out of the game into monero. 

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March 24, 2015, 06:04:40 PM
 #3872


This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.

If you weren't aware, moneritos are pegged to XRM; 1 XRM = 1,000,000 moneritos. The price of gold in-game is fluctuating all the time. If you were to buy gold in-game with your in-game assets, you could then transfer it out of the game into monero. 
They're pegged one-way, which is meaningless. You can't trade out your moneritos.

It's like a game where say a cash shop item costs $15, so the dev says it's worth $15, and proceeds to create 100,000,000 of them, and then says his account is now worth $1.5 Billion.
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March 24, 2015, 06:29:42 PM
 #3873

Another poll!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1000833.0

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March 24, 2015, 07:45:09 PM
 #3874

What are the odds Monero will go to similar heights as DRK?
Do you think DRK is permanently gone to these heights or is it similar type of p&d as it was the case with paycoin or countless others?
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March 24, 2015, 08:04:51 PM
 #3875

new monero thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1001642 xmr vs drk

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
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March 24, 2015, 08:13:30 PM
 #3876


Not worth replying, they have been pointed out how their system is broken a dozen times, they don't care about that as long as the masternode lock up enough coins to let the price rise.

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March 24, 2015, 09:28:15 PM
 #3877

Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?
The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?

Yes and No. On the one hand DarkDash can only go up so much. I mean you have to consider the network strength (POS as it relates to POW). "Investors" are going to look at LTC and such, what it attained (.04 or .05 ratio to BTC) during the "boom", the volume at the time and then look at DarkDash and think, how much more? It is already almost halfway there and when things go up this straight it is both limited and extremely suspicious. On the other hand, those that look a bit deeper are going to come across all the questions about DarkDash and then look at Monero and if they do their DD (with mediocre technical understanding), probably find it is quite a bit above DarkDash. So, the upside is higher with Monero and limited (to a degree) with Dark.

It is a gamble either way and even though I'd like to somewhat hedge my bet of Monero with some DarkDash, I can't morally do that. Just like I won't buy cRipple, albeit for a somewhat different reason.

It's about sharing

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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March 24, 2015, 10:25:14 PM
 #3878

Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?
The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?

Yes and No. On the one hand DarkDash can only go up so much. I mean you have to consider the network strength (POS as it relates to POW). "Investors" are going to look at LTC and such, what it attained (.04 or .05 ratio to BTC) during the "boom", the volume at the time and then look at DarkDash and think, how much more? It is already almost halfway there and when things go up this straight it is both limited and extremely suspicious. On the other hand, those that look a bit deeper are going to come across all the questions about DarkDash and then look at Monero and if they do their DD (with mediocre technical understanding), probably find it is quite a bit above DarkDash. So, the upside is higher with Monero and limited (to a degree) with Dark.

It is a gamble either way and even though I'd like to somewhat hedge my bet of Monero with some DarkDash, I can't morally do that. Just like I won't buy cRipple, albeit for a somewhat different reason.

It's about sharing

Comparing to ltc is a moot point. With over 1/3 of the available supply tied up in masternodes there are only around 3.5 million coins out. Some of the big whales such as otoh have tens of thousands of coins. It is likely there are only around (at a complete guess) 2 million coins out of the hands of masternodes and big whales who aren't looking to sell. This is a tiny number of coins left in comparison to ltc, it can and likely will go much higher imo.
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March 24, 2015, 10:50:47 PM
 #3879

I also assume dark/dash goes significantly higher than it is now, for the same stupid reasons the current cultish members are praising it.

anyway I hedge xmr with drk - but it is a double edged sword: I know it is vanilla software and a semi-stupid scam, but at the same time I know it will not stop rising (and then finally collapse). the biggest problem I could be confronted with is that I knew better in the case my prediction is wrong - anyway.

we had this high quality monero economics thread - is it still active?

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March 25, 2015, 12:47:55 AM
 #3880


Not worth replying, they have been pointed out how their system is broken a dozen times, they don't care about that as long as the masternode lock up enough coins to let the price rise.

Current holders shouldn't be the target. In general, confrontation is a win for the smaller brand because it's extra publicity. I don't think crypto is any different.
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