[XMR] Monero Speculation

[DieJohnny]

serious question, how is Monero going to come out on top?

I just dont' see it.

Here is the funniest part: Monero already won the "anon race", if such thing ever existed.

Everyone knows that, but trolls will deny as long as they can, like they did with Bitcoin before.

Give me a link, explain why DarkCoin has failed here when they are used far more.

1. While I can spend an hour with someone and convince them to take my bitcoin, I will never convince them to take my Monero.
2. To the average guy, Monero is 1 in 100 coins that offer anonymity, arguments seem unprovable or uninteresting to the common man, hey like me.
3. Monero seems to be lacking in intellectual and usage critical mass.
4. Other than a prefix of X not much exciting going on in Monero land.

[smooth]

Give me a link, explain why DarkCoin has failed here when they are used far more.

I don't believe any of these coins is "used" a significant amount. It is essentially all speculation.

1. While I can spend an hour with someone and convince them to take my bitcoin, I will never convince them to take my Monero.

Same with DRK. Going to be a million times harder to convince people to take that over BTC unless they are really gullible, or maybe if looking for a speculative investment.

2. To the average guy, Monero is 1 in 100 coins that offer anonymity, arguments seem unprovable or uninteresting to the common man, hey like me.

Not 100, there are far fewer than that of any significance, although if you're going to go there you could say the same thing about DRK.

3. Monero seems to be lacking in intellectual and usage critical mass.

I don't think its lacking in intellectual critical mass at all. What do you call people doing work like this: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/301r4e/crypto_primitive_shorter_than_current_monero_ring/
Be sure to click through to the post, and tell me how that level of math is not intellectual enough for you.

Re: 4. disagree, but obviously subjective.

[smooth]

This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.

If you weren't aware, moneritos are pegged to XRM; 1 XRM = 1,000,000 moneritos. The price of gold in-game is fluctuating all the time. If you were to buy gold in-game with your in-game assets, you could then transfer it out of the game into monero. 

They're pegged one-way, which is meaningless. You can't trade out your moneritos.

It's like a game where say a cash shop item costs $15, so the dev says it's worth $15, and proceeds to create 100,000,000 of them, and then says his account is now worth $1.5 Billion.

No one has said anything is worth $1.5 billion so you are trolling here.

There's no moneritos in the game that are created out of thin air afaik.

[smooth]

What are the odds Monero will go to similar heights as DRK?

Moderate to low.

Do you think DRK is permanently gone to these heights or is it similar type of p&d as it was the case with paycoin or countless others?

No and maybe.

[Anon136]

Moderate to low.

wow smooth. really? why do you say that? is the project not worthy? or do you just have little to no trust in the market? do you think something better will surpass both of us? or do you think no one will ever catch on to drk and it will become the privacy centric altcoin that everyone uses on the dark market? if that than do you think there are flaws in it that will allow everyone's identity to be uncovered some day?

a lot of elaboration on this comment would be nice.

[Brilliantrocket]

Moderate to low.

Wow really? Even I would say the odds are high for Monero to exceed Darkcoin's current market cap. If garbage like Auroracoin went over $100 million, surely something that's actually useful can do better.

[illodin]

Well he's just careful no one can sue him for giving out false financial advice.

[illodin]

Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?
The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?

This is unfortunately not possible at the moment.

I guess we should make this coin (Monero) shine like a sun then.  

It's hard to light a candle, easy to curse the dark instead

[Anon136]

Moderate to low.

wow smooth. really? why do you say that? is the project not worthy? or do you just have little to no trust in the market? do you think something better will surpass both of us? or do you think no one will ever catch on to drk and it will become the privacy centric altcoin that everyone uses on the dark market? if that than do you think there are flaws in it that will allow everyone's identity to be uncovered some day?

a lot of elaboration on this comment would be nice.

You got him in a good mood, last time he said it will all go to zero

I guess hes right now that i think about it. I told my mom to invest in bitcoin back in 2011 and she didnt listen. I told her then that it probably would go to 0 but that the expected roi was posative, sort of like a lottery ticket for smart people. I told her again with nxt and she didnt listen again. I was right about both. I told her that this was her third opportunity, and i told her again that it probably would go to 0 but had a positive expected return on investment.

it probably wont succeed for a million reasons. but im still convinced it has a very strong posative expected ROI despite this fact. And of course, it goes without saying, it deserves to succeed. good thing im a gambling man. i want to be wealthy so badly.

[smooth]

Moderate to low.

Wow really? Even I would say the odds are high for Monero to exceed Darkcoin's current market cap. If garbage like Auroracoin went over $100 million, surely something that's actually useful can do better.

By low I don't mean zero. That is important. I don't disagree for the most part with rpteilla's earlier comments about expected value (may still be high even if the probability of success is low)

But just because Auroracoin did something, doesn't mean any particular other coin is likely to do that.

This is not just a defensive statement to avoid fraud charges, it is my actual opinion.

[Brilliantrocket]

It's hard to light a candle, easy to curse the dark instead

Haha, very apt.

[smooth]

Moderate to low.

wow smooth. really? why do you say that? is the project not worthy? or do you just have little to no trust in the market? do you think something better will surpass both of us? or do you think no one will ever catch on to drk and it will become the privacy centric altcoin that everyone uses on the dark market? if that than do you think there are flaws in it that will allow everyone's identity to be uncovered some day?

a lot of elaboration on this comment would be nice.

You got him in a good mood, last time he said it will all go to zero

Look carefully at my actual quote to see how I've been misquoted:

I don't think that all coins are equally ponzi investments, but all are certainly speculative, and all likely to go to zero (and I've said that about other coins too).

[TrueCryptonaire]

What are the odds Monero will go to similar heights as DRK?

Moderate to low.

Do you think DRK is permanently gone to these heights or is it similar type of p&d as it was the case with paycoin or countless others?

No and maybe.

Wow... And DRK marketcap is not even 100 million usd.
Generally fiat currencies marketcaps are in trillions rather than billions so in this framework even btc has room to grow.
If Monero do not go even to Darkcoin heights I call it a failure and then it has no right to live IMO.

[smooth]

What are the odds Monero will go to similar heights as DRK?

Moderate to low.

Do you think DRK is permanently gone to these heights or is it similar type of p&d as it was the case with paycoin or countless others?

No and maybe.

Wow... And DRK marketcap is not even 100 million usd.
Generally fiat currencies marketcaps are in trillions rather than billions so in this framework even btc has room to grow.
If Monero do not go even to Darkcoin heights I call it a failure and then it has no right to live IMO.

Responded already. Coins are speculative investments with (very) high potential returns and high risks.

[Brilliantrocket]

By low I don't mean zero. That is important. I don't disagree for the most part with rpteilla's earlier comments about expected value (may still be high even if the probability of success is low)

But just because Auroracoin did something, doesn't mean any particular other coin is likely to do that.

This is not just a defensive statement to avoid fraud charges, it is my actual opinion.

I think you're overly pessimistic. If one year from now Bitcoin is at its current price or higher, I'd say the odds for Monero having a market cap of over $25 million are over 80%. This needs to be further qualified with the conditions that the database and GUI are done (the Monero client is stable and can be used on most computers by someone who isn't tech savy), and the team is continuing to work on Monero. Given the conditions I specified, I would say that $25 million is the low end!

[smooth]

By low I don't mean zero. That is important. I don't disagree for the most part with rpteilla's earlier comments about expected value (may still be high even if the probability of success is low)

But just because Auroracoin did something, doesn't mean any particular other coin is likely to do that.

This is not just a defensive statement to avoid fraud charges, it is my actual opinion.

I think you're overly pessimistic. If one year from now Bitcoin is at its current price or higher, I'd say the odds for Monero having a market cap of over $25 million are over 80%. This needs to be further qualified with the conditions that the database and GUI are done, and the team is continuing to work on Monero.

I'll upgrade it a bit because I was thinking more about price than market cap. Given continued emission the cap will likely be higher. I still don't agree with 80% but if you do believe that you should probably go close to all-in on it (unless you think DRK is even better I suppose)

[futureofbitcoin]

This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.

If you weren't aware, moneritos are pegged to XRM; 1 XRM = 1,000,000 moneritos. The price of gold in-game is fluctuating all the time. If you were to buy gold in-game with your in-game assets, you could then transfer it out of the game into monero. 

They're pegged one-way, which is meaningless. You can't trade out your moneritos.

It's like a game where say a cash shop item costs $15, so the dev says it's worth $15, and proceeds to create 100,000,000 of them, and then says his account is now worth $1.5 Billion.

No one has said anything is worth $1.5 billion so you are trolling here.

There's no moneritos in the game that are created out of thin air afaik.

Are you serious? After everything I've typed, all you can do is ad hominem and red herring? Dude, I said it's LIKE A GAME, that's an example, an example to show a point. I didn't say someone claimed this particular game is worth 1.5 billion.

Seriously, it's unnatural how you guys are pretending not to understand this. It's really suspicious. I'm done explaining, I think any intelligent person can make their own decision on this. Unless you guys come up with genuine reasons and points where I am wrong, instead of using obvious red herrings and ad hominem, I'm done.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Moderate to low.

wow smooth. really? why do you say that? is the project not worthy? or do you just have little to no trust in the market? do you think something better will surpass both of us? or do you think no one will ever catch on to drk and it will become the privacy centric altcoin that everyone uses on the dark market? if that than do you think there are flaws in it that will allow everyone's identity to be uncovered some day?

a lot of elaboration on this comment would be nice.

You got him in a good mood, last time he said it will all go to zero

I guess hes right now that i think about it. I told my mom to invest in bitcoin back in 2011 and she didnt listen. I told her then that it probably would go to 0 but that the expected roi was posative, sort of like a lottery ticket for smart people. I told her again with nxt and she didnt listen again. I was right about both. I told her that this was her third opportunity, and i told her again that it probably would go to 0 but had a positive expected return on investment.

it probably wont succeed for a million reasons. but im still convinced it has a very strong posative expected ROI despite this fact. And of course, it goes without saying, it deserves to succeed. good thing im a gambling man. i want to be wealthy so badly.

Thank you for words of encouragement.
The way we can do larger adoption than DRK is to bring it to the hands that are not involved into crypto. This brings fresh cash to the markets and probably those people are for the long haul since often they may not even own a computer(!!!!).

I guess you could convince your mother to invest only a small amount (like 100-1000 usd). This probably will not hurt her if she loses it completely.

[Brilliantrocket]

I'll upgrade it a bit because I was thinking more about price than market cap. Given continued emission the cap will likely be higher. I still don't agree with 80% but if you do believe that you should probably go close to all-in on it (unless you think DRK is even better I suppose)

I see DRK as more of a wild card. If nothing catastrophic happens, the price may be very high indeed. Thanks to the price reinforcing nature of the master node system, as well as the relatively low number of coins in circulation. I'm planning to hold a bit of each.

[Anon136]

Moderate to low.

wow smooth. really? why do you say that? is the project not worthy? or do you just have little to no trust in the market? do you think something better will surpass both of us? or do you think no one will ever catch on to drk and it will become the privacy centric altcoin that everyone uses on the dark market? if that than do you think there are flaws in it that will allow everyone's identity to be uncovered some day?

a lot of elaboration on this comment would be nice.

You got him in a good mood, last time he said it will all go to zero

I guess hes right now that i think about it. I told my mom to invest in bitcoin back in 2011 and she didnt listen. I told her then that it probably would go to 0 but that the expected roi was posative, sort of like a lottery ticket for smart people. I told her again with nxt and she didnt listen again. I was right about both. I told her that this was her third opportunity, and i told her again that it probably would go to 0 but had a positive expected return on investment.

it probably wont succeed for a million reasons. but im still convinced it has a very strong posative expected ROI despite this fact. And of course, it goes without saying, it deserves to succeed. good thing im a gambling man. i want to be wealthy so badly.

Thank you for words of encouragement.
The way we can do larger adoption than DRK is to bring it to the hands that are not involved into crypto. This brings fresh cash to the markets and probably those people are for the long haul since often they may not even own a computer(!!!!).

I guess you could convince your mother to invest only a small amount (like 100-1000 usd). This probably will not hurt her if she loses it completely.

i went ahead and made her a wallet, wrote the mnemonic on a piece of paper, gave her the piece of paper, and told her to hand me cash any time she liked and i would convert it and put it on that key. interested to see if she ever decides to hand me that cash. she makes a lot of money but spreads her self so thin. im not hopeful.