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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312652 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
smooth (OP)
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March 23, 2015, 06:46:24 AM
 #3841

Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.

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March 23, 2015, 07:08:32 AM
 #3842

Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.



Ok well then in terms of question Number 2. At $0.70-$0.75 isn't Monero under priced if it were to ever be used in lets say an underground market for example? And what other barriers would there be to implementation of Monero in such a marketplace if any?

Monero - Truly Anonymous Digital Cash. Bitcoin Reading List 2017
smooth (OP)
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March 23, 2015, 07:15:07 AM
 #3843

Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.



Ok well then in terms of question Number 2. At $0.70-$0.75 isn't Monero under priced if it were to ever be used in lets say an underground market for example? And what other barriers would there be to implementation of Monero in such a marketplace if any?

I don't know if it is underpriced or overpriced. I guess it just depends how popular it becomes (is it the only coin used on that market or just one of many, etc.), also how willing people are to hold onto it (even just temporarily) while using it for trading.

As far as barriers, none really, at least no hard barriers. The development effort is there, and the fact that without the DB build the memory requirements are pretty high. But really, if a half dozen or so exchanges, plus xmr.to, plus a former (now absconded) gambling site, and some other sites can integrate the code there can't be show stopping barriers to it.

This will all get better as we continue ticking off the development goals (see web site for the list).
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March 23, 2015, 07:30:03 AM
Last edit: March 23, 2015, 08:50:35 AM by TrueCryptonaire
 #3844

Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.



Ok well then in terms of question Number 2. At $0.70-$0.75 isn't Monero under priced if it were to ever be used in lets say an underground market for example? And what other barriers would there be to implementation of Monero in such a marketplace if any?

The only right way to think about if something will go up or down is to think it from the perspective of supply/demand intermediation.
Supply we know from the parameters. Then you ask yourself a question will there be more propensity to hold coins than today. Note, if there are 2 guys holding each coin for 1 week and one coin per person, it means one coin is held 2 weeks (for instance, if I am paying my rent with 1 xmr after holding it for one week and the landlord of my appartment is holding the coin for 1 more week before cashing it out, the coin is held 2 weeks, but in the hands of different persons).
Therefore, creating chains of holders is important for developing the Monero economy after we have some kind of merchant acceptance.
Now we still are in the age of speculation so we need to think if the willingness to hold a coin will decrease or increase from the current level. Personally I think the price of the coin doesn't matter wether it is under/overpriced, all that matters is, will there be more held coins vs. emitted coins in the future than there is now.
I am optimistic in this and therefore I am holding. I am thinking there is relatively high chance of higher amounts of coins held than there is now. If I didn't think in this way I would have dumped (all) my coins long time ago.

Even if Monero fails in getting merchants, it doesn't mean it wouldn't succeed better than bitcoin. Monero is kind of better coin for storing wealth, in this it is a little bit like UNO but with bigger community.
The network-effect and adoption will happen by raising the price little by little all the time and making sure, the long term holders will not be at loss. That will create satisfied salesmen for the coin and the price can rise exponentially.
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March 23, 2015, 03:32:53 PM
 #3845

Oh, its underpriced alright.  Unless you consider downside risks much larger and upside risks proportionately smaller than I do.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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March 23, 2015, 03:41:41 PM
 #3846

Oh, its underpriced alright.  Unless you consider downside risks much larger and upside risks proportionately smaller than I do.



Are you personally increasing your Monero holdings these days?
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March 23, 2015, 04:18:39 PM
 #3847

Increasing only very slowly now: BTC is too low.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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March 23, 2015, 04:23:20 PM
 #3848

short term downtrend for the 3th time since we broke 0.002. What is interesting is that these downtrends seem to be a little more flat every time it occurs again Smiley



I expect that the that this downtrend will be broken in the next 24 hours, maybe when the new missive is published Wink
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March 23, 2015, 04:35:25 PM
 #3849

Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.



Ok well then in terms of question Number 2. At $0.70-$0.75 isn't Monero under priced if it were to ever be used in lets say an underground market for example? And what other barriers would there be to implementation of Monero in such a marketplace if any?

The only right way to think about if something will go up or down is to think it from the perspective of supply/demand intermediation.
Supply we know from the parameters. Then you ask yourself a question will there be more propensity to hold coins than today. Note, if there are 2 guys holding each coin for 1 week and one coin per person, it means one coin is held 2 weeks (for instance, if I am paying my rent with 1 xmr after holding it for one week and the landlord of my appartment is holding the coin for 1 more week before cashing it out, the coin is held 2 weeks, but in the hands of different persons).
Therefore, creating chains of holders is important for developing the Monero economy after we have some kind of merchant acceptance.
Now we still are in the age of speculation so we need to think if the willingness to hold a coin will decrease or increase from the current level. Personally I think the price of the coin doesn't matter wether it is under/overpriced, all that matters is, will there be more held coins vs. emitted coins in the future than there is now.
I am optimistic in this and therefore I am holding. I am thinking there is relatively high chance of higher amounts of coins held than there is now. If I didn't think in this way I would have dumped (all) my coins long time ago.

Even if Monero fails in getting merchants, it doesn't mean it wouldn't succeed better than bitcoin. Monero is kind of better coin for storing wealth, in this it is a little bit like UNO but with bigger community.
The network-effect and adoption will happen by raising the price little by little all the time and making sure, the long term holders will not be at loss. That will create satisfied salesmen for the coin and the price can rise exponentially.

My point with the market place is that would be a reason for non-holders to then grab some monero and "hold" it (or part of it) at least for as long as they conduct business on the marketplace and thus increasing the demand. Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

Monero - Truly Anonymous Digital Cash. Bitcoin Reading List 2017
TrueCryptonaire
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March 23, 2015, 09:27:29 PM
 #3850

Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.



Ok well then in terms of question Number 2. At $0.70-$0.75 isn't Monero under priced if it were to ever be used in lets say an underground market for example? And what other barriers would there be to implementation of Monero in such a marketplace if any?

The only right way to think about if something will go up or down is to think it from the perspective of supply/demand intermediation.
Supply we know from the parameters. Then you ask yourself a question will there be more propensity to hold coins than today. Note, if there are 2 guys holding each coin for 1 week and one coin per person, it means one coin is held 2 weeks (for instance, if I am paying my rent with 1 xmr after holding it for one week and the landlord of my appartment is holding the coin for 1 more week before cashing it out, the coin is held 2 weeks, but in the hands of different persons).
Therefore, creating chains of holders is important for developing the Monero economy after we have some kind of merchant acceptance.
Now we still are in the age of speculation so we need to think if the willingness to hold a coin will decrease or increase from the current level. Personally I think the price of the coin doesn't matter wether it is under/overpriced, all that matters is, will there be more held coins vs. emitted coins in the future than there is now.
I am optimistic in this and therefore I am holding. I am thinking there is relatively high chance of higher amounts of coins held than there is now. If I didn't think in this way I would have dumped (all) my coins long time ago.

Even if Monero fails in getting merchants, it doesn't mean it wouldn't succeed better than bitcoin. Monero is kind of better coin for storing wealth, in this it is a little bit like UNO but with bigger community.
The network-effect and adoption will happen by raising the price little by little all the time and making sure, the long term holders will not be at loss. That will create satisfied salesmen for the coin and the price can rise exponentially.

My point with the market place is that would be a reason for non-holders to then grab some monero and "hold" it (or part of it) at least for as long as they conduct business on the marketplace and thus increasing the demand. Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

For Monero-virgins this is bargain especially if they are planning to spend fiat into this (rolling via bitcoin obviously).
If they are bitcoiners, the price is still right but perhaps not that good deal - especially if one has paid too much for their bitcoins. On the other hand, DRK, which is currently the leading private coin, is pumping and it is bitcoinwise 5-6 times more expensive than Monero.
My recommendation is to drop some darks when the price rises and buy Moneros instead especially as Monero is sliding down a little bit. There are also now plenty of Moneros for sale relatively close (last time I checked, 10 % with marketbuy costed ~ 100 btc).
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March 23, 2015, 10:46:58 PM
 #3851

Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

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March 23, 2015, 10:49:58 PM
 #3852

Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.
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March 23, 2015, 11:03:32 PM
 #3853

Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
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March 23, 2015, 11:21:23 PM
Last edit: March 23, 2015, 11:34:03 PM by Johnny Mnemonic
 #3854

Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

That would be true if the game actually lowered the barrier of entry to the crypto market, but I don't believe it does at this time (correct me if I'm wrong). So for now, the game's growth is still limited mainly to the cryptosphere.

However, if users could deposit fiat money with a credit card for the purchase of CKG or whatever the in-game currency is, then pretty much anyone could play it and benefit monero. I'm not in the loop with the game's development, so if this is already possible or planned, then disregard.

EDIT: perhaps new accounts must pay a certain amount to play the game, and their account comes with a fixed amount of CKG that is included with all new paid accounts. I'm looking for legal ways to easily distribute crypto that wouldn't be considered "money transmission." I'm not a lawyer.
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March 23, 2015, 11:30:18 PM
 #3855

Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.

Yes, it does. I only discovered Monero (well, rediscovered it from last May) because of Crypto Kingdom. Since then, I have put XX,XXX XMR into the game where it will stay.  I think the ratio of people to gamers in the crypto crowd is significantly higher than most demographics, so this has a great chance of taking off. 

Plus it's FUN!  Finally I can do something with my crypto that is something I would do outside of crypto. I can't underscore the importance of that-I believe that alone will bring the players. Oh, and they might discover Monero as a side benefit Wink

smooth (OP)
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March 23, 2015, 11:39:45 PM
 #3856

Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

That would be true if the game actually lowered the barrier of entry to the crypto market, but I don't believe it does at this time (correct me if I'm wrong). So for now, the game's growth is still limited mainly to the cryptosphere.

However, if users could deposit fiat money with a credit card for the purchase of CKG or whatever the in-game currency is, then pretty much anyone could play it and benefit monero. I'm not in the loop with the game's development, so if this is already possible or planned, then disregard.

EDIT: perhaps new accounts must pay a certain amount to play the game, and their account comes with a fixed amount of CKG that is included with all new paid accounts. I'm looking for legal ways to easily distribute crypto that wouldn't be considered "money transmission." I'm not a lawyer.

There is a freemium model. People will be able to play for free, earn CKG at a slow rate, and earn moneritos (in game XMR) by playing.

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March 24, 2015, 12:16:10 AM
 #3857

serious question, how is Monero going to come out on top?

I just dont' see it.

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March 24, 2015, 12:19:04 AM
 #3858

serious question, how is Monero going to come out on top?

I just dont' see it.

Maybe serious but can you be more specific? It is pretty hard answer such a vague question. Pretty much the only way to answer that would be with some kind of sales pitch, which we generally don't do and isn't appropriate to this thread at all.

Give your own opinion, and more importantly explain why.
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March 24, 2015, 03:38:56 AM
 #3859

Here is the funniest part: Monero already won the "anon race", if such thing ever existed.
Nothing is won. There is no winner. Just different teams that prepare.

There is alot of work and stress ahead and only a small chance of succeeding. But the project itself is really worth, to really(!) give our best, to try everything possible.

Monero is only well-positioned today, but 1.) only against the public known competition.
CryptoNote tech & whitepaper came out of nowhere. Maybe next months someone with a strange pseudonym will release an even better whitepaper.

2.) the crypto landspace, tech and market changes very fast, who is being ahead can and does change very fast
(if u consider winning as surely given, you wont fight enough for the victory)


3.) people in general and especially people acting in a free markets, dont act logically or fact-based, superior tech doesnt gurantee success, having the best and most secure product  is worthless if nobody is going to use it, etc.

these are just three main points, there are alot more to consider
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March 24, 2015, 02:17:42 PM
 #3860

Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

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