[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

During the last XBT/USD boom LTC peaked at 0.05 XBT and stayed over 0.02 XBT for a good 4 months. NMC peaked at 0.016 XBT.

[opennux]

During the last XBT/USD boom LTC peaked at 0.05 XBT and stayed over 0.02 XBT for a good 4 months. NMC peaked at 0.016 XBT.

Well, I will answer my own question, because I think that Monero hands are or will be stronger than bitcoin hands. This is second generation holdings. People have learned from what can happen if you leave your old hard drive in a land fill, or if you buy a pizza for 10k btc (WITHOUT replenishing your holding), just spending it nilly willy.
I understand that the aim for Monero is to be cash, but I surmise that a lot of holders are more frugal about their usage of their coins now and at least replenish their holdings up to a individually predetermined amount.

[smooth]

I understand that the aim for Monero is to be cash

The aim is to eventually be cash, but not at 6m USD market cap.

[aminorex]

I still say 0.035 was crazy cheap.  A risk-weighted discounting of future valuation scenarios tells me it was crazy cheap then, and is even crazier cheap today, when risks are significantly less.  Unfortunately, I recently developed a taste for rather aged Barolos (and did not have the benefit of realizing their merits at an earlier age, when i could have put them down cheaply), which is definitely causing some heartache:  XMR for tomorrow, or a sultry luscious red for tonight?  Fortunately I already have enough XMR to buy a smallish continent (in the most optimistic scenarios) so I don't feel stupid when I indulge my senses a bit.

Regarding the coming BTC run-up:  It seems likely that any BTC boom will be accompanied by significant factors which will have the effect of raising awareness of the risks inherent in the transparent ledger.  Such events will occur with increasing frequency due to (1) state agents gaining facility with BTC, and (2) financial repression ratcheting up.

Given the robust history of XMR, and the relatively mature level of understanding of the practical as well as theoretical risk geometry of the technology, I think that the probability of a new crypto overtaking XMR is much less now.  In particular it seems very unlikely that any large institutional crypto will incorporate competitive privacy features, as much of the value of crypto to such institutions lies in control of information flow.  Almost certainly the overwhelming bulk of the risk in XMR lies in the development team.  At 5mm market cap, they may avoid subornation and subversion.  At 1000x that, not so much.



 

[TrueCryptonaire]

 Fortunately I already have enough XMR to buy a smallish continent (in the most optimistic scenarios) so I don't feel stupid when I indulge my senses a bit.



 

Are you buying Moneros anymore (besides trading)?
If I am not mistaken, I have read you reached your core position around New Year.
Have you been able to yield with your maximum amounts? After all, I assume Bill Gates have no maximum amounts of fiat which he do not want to get.

[lyth0s]

I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

we will not see $ 10 this year. i think it is very unrealistic that we will overtake drk,bts and ltc in marketcap.

In the end of this year the daily emission is about 11 000 XMR.
10 USD price means the emission needs 110 000 usd/day which is not impossible - in my opinion. I don't say it will happen but certainly it is possible. I understand that currently it looks pretty distant as emission is 16 000 XMR/day and price is 0.80 USD/XMR.
Last summer Monero cost 3-5 USD so 10 USD is not impossible in my opinion.

It's really a loop that will feed on itself though. If Monero price keeps going up more of the miners will hoard their coins in speculation that they will be worth more "tomorrow", which then leads to a lower available emission on the exchanges, which then creates a more limited supply -> Leading to more hoarding and so on.

Also since most of XMR trading is done via bitcoin the value of XMR could just be seen fixed to what amount of bitcoin you would get for it (rather than a USD amount). If bitcoin goes up in price lets say back to $1000 and XMR is able to hold its exchange rate relative to bitcoin at 0.0025 (lets say that's the current price) then XMR would be worth almost 5x the fiat price it currently is without having to perform better against bitcoin at all. Also after the rise in price of bitcoin suddenly people turn to altcoins as a way to try to increase their profit margins (since they can rise and fall faster in smaller market caps) which could then actually boost its BTC/XMR exchange rate adding to an even higher USD rate. My example of this happening would be what happened to litecoin after bitcoin went through the roof.

[nakaone]

Given the robust history of XMR, and the relatively mature level of understanding of the practical as well as theoretical risk geometry of the technology, I think that the probability of a new crypto overtaking XMR is much less now.  In particular it seems very unlikely that any large institutional crypto will incorporate competitive privacy features, as much of the value of crypto to such institutions lies in control of information flow.  
 

both parts cannot be highlighted more

you cannot build something with this specific kind of potential intrinsic value  in any other way

the risk of being overtaken diminishes from day to day

[cAPSLOCK]

Given the robust history of XMR, and the relatively mature level of understanding of the practical as well as theoretical risk geometry of the technology, I think that the probability of a new crypto overtaking XMR is much less now.

 

I agree we have a lock on the #2 spot in this space, but something will still have to happen to #1.  And it is only relevant that the #1 privacy coin is deeply flawed insofar as it causes it's decline from the top spot.  I don't see enough evidence that is coming yet. Thoughts there?

[futureofbitcoin]

I still say 0.035 was crazy cheap.  A risk-weighted discounting of future valuation scenarios tells me it was crazy cheap then, and is even crazier cheap today, when risks are significantly less.  Unfortunately, I recently developed a taste for rather aged Barolos (and did not have the benefit of realizing their merits at an earlier age, when i could have put them down cheaply), which is definitely causing some heartache:  XMR for tomorrow, or a sultry luscious red for tonight?  Fortunately I already have enough XMR to buy a smallish continent (in the most optimistic scenarios) so I don't feel stupid when I indulge my senses a bit.
 

What is the most optimistic scenario in your mind? 4 digits? 5 digits? overtaking bitcoin and reaching a million?

[smooth]

I still say 0.035 was crazy cheap.  A risk-weighted discounting of future valuation scenarios tells me it was crazy cheap then, and is even crazier cheap today, when risks are significantly less.  Unfortunately, I recently developed a taste for rather aged Barolos (and did not have the benefit of realizing their merits at an earlier age, when i could have put them down cheaply), which is definitely causing some heartache:  XMR for tomorrow, or a sultry luscious red for tonight?  Fortunately I already have enough XMR to buy a smallish continent (in the most optimistic scenarios) so I don't feel stupid when I indulge my senses a bit.
 

What is the most optimistic scenario in your mind? 4 digits? 5 digits? overtaking bitcoin and reaching a million?

The most optimistic is pretty damn broad. How about Bitcoin tears itself apart with the bullshit over the block size or some other political crap, LTC is gone by then (could happen within a few months in my view), and Monero is the most credible PoW cryptocurrency project left standing (some of the less dysfunctional Bitcoin developers would likely join and we would welcome them), which then takes off globally within 3-5 years for a valuation well into the trillions. So yes, that is 1m or more.

Before I'm accused of being a pumper, I'm not making a "call" here, but you asked about most optimistic. Honestly I'm not even sure I reached it. I may not be creative enough.

[dnaleor]

I still say 0.035 was crazy cheap.  A risk-weighted discounting of future valuation scenarios tells me it was crazy cheap then, and is even crazier cheap today, when risks are significantly less.  Unfortunately, I recently developed a taste for rather aged Barolos (and did not have the benefit of realizing their merits at an earlier age, when i could have put them down cheaply), which is definitely causing some heartache:  XMR for tomorrow, or a sultry luscious red for tonight?  Fortunately I already have enough XMR to buy a smallish continent (in the most optimistic scenarios) so I don't feel stupid when I indulge my senses a bit.
 

What is the most optimistic scenario in your mind? 4 digits? 5 digits? overtaking bitcoin and reaching a million?

The most optimistic is pretty damn broad. How about Bitcoin tears itself apart with the bullshit over the block size or some other political crap, LTC is gone by then (could happen within a few months in my view), and Monero is the most credible PoW cryptocurrency project left standing (some of the less dysfunctional Bitcoin developers would likely join and we would welcome them), which then takes off globally within 3-5 years for a valuation well into the trillions. So yes, that is 1m or more.

Before I'm accused of being a pumper, I'm not making a "call" here, but you asked about most optimistic. Honestly I'm not even sure I reached it. I may not be creative enough.

you forgot about the massive alien demand for moneroj that is out there in space...
Within a decade the value of 1 XMR will be around a googol ISD* 



*InterStellar Dollars

[futureofbitcoin]

The most optimistic is pretty damn broad. How about Bitcoin tears itself apart with the bullshit over the block size or some other political crap, LTC is gone by then (could happen within a few months in my view), and Monero is the most credible PoW cryptocurrency project left standing (some of the less dysfunctional Bitcoin developers would likely join and we would welcome them), which then takes off globally within 3-5 years for a valuation well into the trillions. So yes, that is 1m or more.

Before I'm accused of being a pumper, I'm not making a "call" here, but you asked about most optimistic. Honestly I'm not even sure I reached it. I may not be creative enough.

Yeah, I was curious what aminorex was thinking of when he typed that, but I'm always happy to hear other people's insights on this, and from all my reading this past month on crypto in general and monero specifically, I've kind of take you as a somewhat authoritative person on the topic, so thanks for your input

For me, I'm not sure what a "most optimistic" scenario would be, but I think a somewhat "realistic most optimistic" hope is that Monero increases 100-200x on BTC, so to about 0.2-0.4BTC/XMR, and BTC goes up by about 100-200x, bringing the total to 10,000-40,000x current value.

[GingerAle]

I still say 0.035 was crazy cheap.  A risk-weighted discounting of future valuation scenarios tells me it was crazy cheap then, and is even crazier cheap today, when risks are significantly less.  Unfortunately, I recently developed a taste for rather aged Barolos (and did not have the benefit of realizing their merits at an earlier age, when i could have put them down cheaply), which is definitely causing some heartache:  XMR for tomorrow, or a sultry luscious red for tonight?  Fortunately I already have enough XMR to buy a smallish continent (in the most optimistic scenarios) so I don't feel stupid when I indulge my senses a bit.
 

What is the most optimistic scenario in your mind? 4 digits? 5 digits? overtaking bitcoin and reaching a million?

The most optimistic is pretty damn broad. How about Bitcoin tears itself apart with the bullshit over the block size or some other political crap, LTC is gone by then (could happen within a few months in my view), and Monero is the most credible PoW cryptocurrency project left standing (some of the less dysfunctional Bitcoin developers would likely join and we would welcome them), which then takes off globally within 3-5 years for a valuation well into the trillions. So yes, that is 1m or more.

Before I'm accused of being a pumper, I'm not making a "call" here, but you asked about most optimistic. Honestly I'm not even sure I reached it. I may not be creative enough.

you forgot about the massive alien demand for moneroj that is out there in space...
Within a decade the value of 1 XMR will be around a googol ISD* 



*InterStellar Dollars

Most most optimistic - Monero will lead us to transcendence.

[smooth]

The most optimistic is pretty damn broad. How about Bitcoin tears itself apart with the bullshit over the block size or some other political crap, LTC is gone by then (could happen within a few months in my view), and Monero is the most credible PoW cryptocurrency project left standing (some of the less dysfunctional Bitcoin developers would likely join and we would welcome them), which then takes off globally within 3-5 years for a valuation well into the trillions. So yes, that is 1m or more.

Before I'm accused of being a pumper, I'm not making a "call" here, but you asked about most optimistic. Honestly I'm not even sure I reached it. I may not be creative enough.

Yeah, I was curious what aminorex was thinking of when he typed that, but I'm always happy to hear other people's insights on this, and from all my reading this past month on crypto in general and monero specifically, I've kind of take you as a somewhat authoritative person on the topic, so thanks for your input

For me, I'm not sure what a "most optimistic" scenario would be, but I think a somewhat "realistic most optimistic" hope is that Monero increases 100-200x on BTC, so to about 0.2-0.4BTC/XMR, and BTC goes up by about 100-200x, bringing the total to 10,000-40,000x current value.

The "best case" that I would say is "somewhat realistic" for BTC is around 1m. You can get there with the digital gold use case among others.

I don't really know what the "realistic" best cases are for the XMR/BTC ratio. So the "best case" for XMR that I can compute comes from the catastrophic hedge scenario where it replaces BTC and takes over BTC's upside that I just described.

[aminorex]

Most optimistic requires several generations of technological and social change to occur, each of which is prone to failure, so yeah, its pretty darn optimistic, but basically it boils down to (1) no apocalypse destroying technological society, (2) XMR holdings retaining proportionate share of value, and (3) XMR displacing all competing stores of value and media for exchange without counter-party risk.  PQ = global GDP = MV = 18mm * V, with V somewhere from 1 to 10, probably closer to 1.  And yeah, then growing PQ is necessary to increase your value, so mining the asteroid belt, building a Dyson sphere, etc.  XMR + singularity FTW.

Pointless to discuss really, except that communicating vision is often super-effective.  And this peculiar vision is still very much an option, should we, as a species, chose it.  Which is a lot more than I can say for most pipe-dreams.  Moreover, with each day it seems more and more of a moral imperative.  What other option is there for preserving human dignity and individual liberty?

Regarding hoiding limits, I have relaxed my personal rules for the time-being, on the theory that I can always distribute it later (and will exercise the good sense to do so in a timely manner).  So yeah, I am still accumulating a bit.  More when it was lower, but slowly and steadily.  

[Anon136]

Most optimistic, monero is the vanguard that not only protects the integrity of what vestiges of a free market we have now but further leads to the creation of a true free market renaissance and destroys the state in the sense that it will be forced to fund its self through voluntary donations only. In this future sure some are wealthier than others, but just like how modern day poor are in some sense wealthier than kings of old, even the poor in the future will be in most ways better off than billionaires today. Most optimistic, monero makes everyone wealthier in ways that we cant even begin to imagine, even people who never touch the stuff.

*edit* though i think its more accurate to frame this in the context of a broader trend of decentralization of which monero is a small (or potentially large) part rather than to put too much weight on the shoulders of this particular project specifically.

[nioc]

How is this for optimistic?  While I had poloniex open my cat walked across my keyboard and market bought some Monero

[Joshuar]

I was wondering, is there a payment processor for monero out? Like code that you can add to your website if youre a merchant to accept moneroj.

[Quicken]

http://www.coindesk.com/breaking-uk-treasury-issues-landmark-digital-currencies-report/

The United Kingdom's Treasury has published its report on digital currencies in conjunction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer's budget speech today.

The report recommends that anti-money laundering regulation be applied to digital currency exchanges in the UK and that HM Treasury will consult on the regulatory approach in Parliament.

Regulations incoming.

[GingerAle]

I was wondering, is there a payment processor for monero out? Like code that you can add to your website if youre a merchant to accept moneroj.

xmr.to

is the closest we have.