[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

[razen489]

monero price above 0.003 the new normal? https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc

[GingerAle]

Okay, so in the polo trollbox and other places, the question often arises "why is XMR price rising". Here are some possibilities in no particular order

XMR provides a valuable service (cryptographically secure private transactions)
active core development
active ecosystem development (openalias)
people that hear about DASH also hear about XMR and decide to buy XMR instead
XMR.to allows you to use XMR wherever XBT (BTC) is accepted
active community (close to instantaneous responses on forums and IRC)
Major XBT market maker said "xmr will now start rising"
Recent bitcoin fungibility problem awareness
XMR is undervalued
XMR was artificially undervalued due to BCX attack threat circa 10/2014
Staying power - been around for almost a year (birthday less than 1 month away)
Large consistent market volume
The longest and slowest pump 'n dump is underway (price has been rising for a month)
I think we're exiting the most linear phase of the ~4 year emission curve - already a 3rd (6 million) of available coins have been emitted



false reasons XMR price is rising:
XMR devs convincing people to buy monero: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg10893672#msg10893672
Monero is a taco


any other things to add to the list?

[generalizethis]

Okay, so in the polo trollbox and other places, the question often arises "why is XMR price rising". Here are some possibilities in no particular order

XMR provides a valuable service (cryptographically secure private transactions)
active core development
active ecosystem development (openalias)
people that hear about DASH also hear about XMR and decide to buy XMR instead
XMR.to allows you to use XMR wherever XBT (BTC) is accepted
active community (close to instantaneous responses on forums and IRC)
Major XBT market maker said "xmr will now start rising"
Recent bitcoin fungibility problem awareness
XMR is undervalued
XMR was artificially undervalued due to BCX attack threat circa 10/2014
Staying power - been around for almost a year (birthday less than 1 month away)
Large consistent market volume
The longest and slowest pump 'n dump is underway (price has been rising for a month)
I think we're exiting the most linear phase of the ~4 year emission curve - already a 3rd (6 million) of available coins have been emitted



false reasons XMR price is rising:
XMR devs convincing people to buy monero: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg10893672#msg10893672
Monero is a taco


any other things to add to the list?

(paraphrasing)

Fluffy telling people not to buy Monero if they're just speculating, but only if they believe in the project or are using it--preferably both.  I love it when leadership is open and honest and doesn't delude people with false promises or play-up inflated expectations.

[MoneroMooo]

any other things to add to the list?

Short squeeze

[rpietila]

any other things to add to the list?

Short squeeze

In a way, yes. Many who have sold in anticipation to buy lower are getting convinced that their trade went bad and are buying back.

- Increased confidence (volatility has been decreasing lately)
- New (Venture Capital -mindset) money is entering in (possibly several 5-figure USD = XMR positions, some perhaps larger) <= not all of this are believers though, some may be looking for a quick buck, which for them is 1-5 years and anything more than 10x gain

The last reason, which I know to be true, however don't know the full extent, is what I have been expecting to happen. These investors are bridging the gap between the reality of expectations(TM) and valuation, of which the latter has been lagging. When the valuation catches the reality, they exit or lighten up.

[eizh]

Monero is a taco

Monero could have been a taco. Sadly, tacotime was opposed to calling Monero's smallest unit a tacoshi (a la satoshi for 1e-8 BTC). A bold opportunity lost.

[Hueristic]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

[TrueCryptonaire]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

So you are basically predicting a significiant drop in the price growth rate?
Currently the situation is, it is building up a nice support at 0.003. It did it in a few months from 0.001 support levels.
To build up a support to 0.005 requires ~ 70 % rise from the current support line and the time zone you are predicting is 3 months..
I would say 0.005 is pretty realistic support line on Monero's first anniversary (or close to this date) and 0.01 can be a support line on 30.06.2015.

Actually given the increase in awarness even higher support level is possible on 30.06.2015. The price growth attracts new people who are competing the scarcer and scarcer coins.

[Hueristic]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

So you are basically predicting a significiant drop in the price growth rate?
Currently the situation is, it is building up a nice support at 0.003. It did it in a few months from 0.001 support levels.
To build up a support to 0.005 requires ~ 70 % rise from the current support line and the time zone you are predicting is 3 months..
I would say 0.005 is pretty realistic support line on Monero's first anniversary (or close to this date) and 0.01 can be a support line on 30.06.2015.

Actually given the increase in awarness even higher support level is possible on 30.06.2015. The price growth attracts new people who are competing the scarcer and scarcer coins.

You should read your own question, And then you may understand the answer. Do not put words in my mouth. I have predicted nothing about how the growth will mature. And I will not predict that. But I will say it will not be linear.

[TrueCryptonaire]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

So you are basically predicting a significiant drop in the price growth rate?
Currently the situation is, it is building up a nice support at 0.003. It did it in a few months from 0.001 support levels.
To build up a support to 0.005 requires ~ 70 % rise from the current support line and the time zone you are predicting is 3 months..
I would say 0.005 is pretty realistic support line on Monero's first anniversary (or close to this date) and 0.01 can be a support line on 30.06.2015.

Actually given the increase in awarness even higher support level is possible on 30.06.2015. The price growth attracts new people who are competing the scarcer and scarcer coins.

You should read your own question, And then you may understand the answer. Do not put words in my mouth. I have predicted nothing about how the growth will mature. And I will not predict that. But I will say it will not be linear.

Yes, everything is speculation except the reality.
I do not believe the price will grow the same rate neither.
That being said, I do not believe the growth rate will drop significiantly just yet.
The larger drops in growth rates enters when the price goes to some serous numbers (such as 10+ usd).
On the other hand, this is speculation which means it can be too optimistic but also too pessimistic.
The future will show. There might be some venture capitilists interested in Monero tech, too.

[razen489]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

So you are basically predicting a significiant drop in the price growth rate?
Currently the situation is, it is building up a nice support at 0.003. It did it in a few months from 0.001 support levels.
To build up a support to 0.005 requires ~ 70 % rise from the current support line and the time zone you are predicting is 3 months..
I would say 0.005 is pretty realistic support line on Monero's first anniversary (or close to this date) and 0.01 can be a support line on 30.06.2015.

Actually given the increase in awarness even higher support level is possible on 30.06.2015. The price growth attracts new people who are competing the scarcer and scarcer coins.

One must be extra careful, Darkcoin.. i mean DASH, have seen a significant boost prior to rebrand.. and now it is downtrending again https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/darkcoin/btc
Is it safe to say that Monero was riding on the news of anonymity coin?

[TrueCryptonaire]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

So you are basically predicting a significiant drop in the price growth rate?
Currently the situation is, it is building up a nice support at 0.003. It did it in a few months from 0.001 support levels.
To build up a support to 0.005 requires ~ 70 % rise from the current support line and the time zone you are predicting is 3 months..
I would say 0.005 is pretty realistic support line on Monero's first anniversary (or close to this date) and 0.01 can be a support line on 30.06.2015.

Actually given the increase in awarness even higher support level is possible on 30.06.2015. The price growth attracts new people who are competing the scarcer and scarcer coins.

One must be extra careful, Darkcoin.. i mean DASH, have seen a significant boost prior to rebrand.. and now it is downtrending again https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/darkcoin/btc
Is it safe to say that Monero was riding on the news of anonymity coin?

I think Monero is absorbing slowly slowly Darkcoin community.
We might soon see how the Darkcoin people have joined us.
The war thread perhaps was a good eye opener for many Darkcoin believer, it might have caused some Darkcoin community members to repent and come home to papa.  

I think Monero has its own merits why it is rising.

[Hueristic]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

So you are basically predicting a significiant drop in the price growth rate?
Currently the situation is, it is building up a nice support at 0.003. It did it in a few months from 0.001 support levels.
To build up a support to 0.005 requires ~ 70 % rise from the current support line and the time zone you are predicting is 3 months..
I would say 0.005 is pretty realistic support line on Monero's first anniversary (or close to this date) and 0.01 can be a support line on 30.06.2015.

Actually given the increase in awarness even higher support level is possible on 30.06.2015. The price growth attracts new people who are competing the scarcer and scarcer coins.

One must be extra careful, Darkcoin.. i mean DASH, have seen a significant boost prior to rebrand.. and now it is downtrending again https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/darkcoin/btc
Is it safe to say that Monero was riding on the news of anonymity coin?

I think Monero is absorbing slowly slowly Darkcoin community.
We might soon see how the Darkcoin people have joined us.
The war threath perhaps was a good eye opener for many Darkcoin believer, it might have caused some Darkcoin community members to repent and come home to papa. 

I think Monero has its own merits why it is rising.

And when they can't hold their bladder back any longer and sell because the price didn't double in a week then it's time to scoop their dumps up.

[TrueCryptonaire]

When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

I'm betting on June 30th, exactly.

So you are basically predicting a significiant drop in the price growth rate?
Currently the situation is, it is building up a nice support at 0.003. It did it in a few months from 0.001 support levels.
To build up a support to 0.005 requires ~ 70 % rise from the current support line and the time zone you are predicting is 3 months..
I would say 0.005 is pretty realistic support line on Monero's first anniversary (or close to this date) and 0.01 can be a support line on 30.06.2015.

Actually given the increase in awarness even higher support level is possible on 30.06.2015. The price growth attracts new people who are competing the scarcer and scarcer coins.

One must be extra careful, Darkcoin.. i mean DASH, have seen a significant boost prior to rebrand.. and now it is downtrending again https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/darkcoin/btc
Is it safe to say that Monero was riding on the news of anonymity coin?

I think Monero is absorbing slowly slowly Darkcoin community.
We might soon see how the Darkcoin people have joined us.
The war threath perhaps was a good eye opener for many Darkcoin believer, it might have caused some Darkcoin community members to repent and come home to papa.  

I think Monero has its own merits why it is rising.

And when they can't hold their bladder back any longer and sell because the price didn't double in a week then it's time to scoop their dumps up.

I have currently no plans to even touch that coin despite it is probably easy to pump.
For Monero it is good that the rest of anon coins have lower marketcap since it brings Monero to the spotlight of anon coins in the eyes of anon virgins.

[aminorex]

Keep in mind that near-term price trajectory, while it influences, does not determine the health of xmr, certainly not technically, but not even economically.  Sustainable economic activity is key.  Technical and usability improvements are crucial to continued growth because they enable a diversity of economic activity.  The bigger your bag the more it matters to you, and the more you can do about it.

Personally I feel guilty occasionally for not investing more time into it.  Then I remember how other projects are so far behind my target schedule...  I need an army.  Good soldiers are hard to find, though.  And expensive.
 

[GTO911]

and who doesn't like tacos?

Do they sell tacos in Canada? i am immigrating soon

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero needs services that are hoovering coins from the markets.
First it is cool to have fiat-xmr-fiat exchange.
Second, services (like btcjam) - people borrow money in xmr and perhaps convert it to fiat and when they repay, they convert the principal ammortization + interest payment from fiat into xmr thus increasing the demand for Monero the sum of interest payment.
Then, all kind of digital stuff, ebay-style auction site that collects comissions in xmr and holds them etc.
Personally I think auction website for Monero would be cool.

They may not make the owners rich but definetely there are some small rivers that make the ocean.  

[Gladimor]

Hopefully the 20 BTC floor on 0.003 BTC won't break 

[thelibertycap]

Monero needs services that are hoovering coins from the markets.
First it is cool to have fiat-xmr-fiat exchange.
Second, services (like btcjam) - people borrow money in xmr and perhaps convert it to fiat and when they repay, they convert the principal ammortization + interest payment from fiat into xmr thus increasing the demand for Monero the sum of interest payment.
Then, all kind of digital stuff, ebay-style auction site that collects comissions in xmr and holds them etc.
Personally I think auction website for Monero would be cool.

They may not make the owners rich but definetely there are some small rivers that make the ocean.  

Someone could always start selling Alpaca socks!

Well, I don't know, you can't buy Alpaca socks with gold either and I think gold is alright.

But it is sure a nice thing to have.