[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.
Even higher emission can be absorbed if there are enough people entering to the markets who want to buy coins at any price.

[jehst]

The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.

Those 280k coins in asks were worth over a million dollars back then. Liquidity was much better.

I have no idea how the order books would change during an XMR bull-run. Undoubtedly, many coins would come out of cold storage to increase the supply and dampen the rise.

[Bassica]

The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.

Those 280k coins in asks were worth over a million dollars back then. Liquidity was much better.

I have no idea how the order books would change during an XMR bull-run. Undoubtedly, many coins would come out of cold storage to increase the supply and dampen the rise.

Also the total mined supply is not constant. 280k / total mined then is not comparable to now.

And, it basicly is all relative. Summer '14 is not comparable to late winter '15. Look at BTC-price, look at all the alt pricing/volume. Be careful when drawing conclusions to quickly about specific coins/situations. It all moves within an ecosphere, within an ecosphere, within a ecosphere.  Ecosphereception

[opennux]

The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.

Those 280k coins in asks were worth over a million dollars back then. Liquidity was much better.

I have no idea how the order books would change during an XMR bull-run. Undoubtedly, many coins would come out of cold storage to increase the supply and dampen the rise.

Also the total mined supply is not constant. 280k / total mined then is not comparable to now.

And, it basicly is all relative. Summer '14 is not comparable to late winter '15. Look at BTC-price, look at all the alt pricing/volume. Be careful when drawing conclusions to quickly about specific coins/situations. It all moves within an ecosphere, within an ecosphere, within a ecosphere.  Ecosphereception

That the emission is higher now is a piece of the puzzle, certainly. Let's say in the middle of summer '14 and rounding up a bit, the total emission was 2.4m with 280k on the books. That's roughly 11.6%.

Today the emission is 6.4m with what? 450k on the books. That's roughly 7%.

Oh and a few days ago there were far less asks (and bids mind you).

Also, the books change quite dramatically. And who might be interested in having lot's of asks on the books?

[stslimited]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

secondly, I would like to thank the operator of Poloniex for their prompt support during a period of high volatility and liquidity, and for raising my bitcoin and monero withdrawal limits

thirdly, I would like to thank fluffypony, smooth et. al for their suspense in releasing the missive, even though it didn't contain anything the market was actually waiting for

fourth, I would like to commend the aforementioned core devs for their surprise decision by committee to release it in audio format, so that the market could not disseminate it fast enough to undermine my selling plans

[thelibertycap]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

[Wexlike]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

And the game of coins goes on.

[stslimited]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

fifth I would like to thank the syndicate bidders for their patience, everyone that actually replied (via PM) to my numerous posts about forming syndicate bid knows who they are.

a) none of them were taken out

b) I was forming that before Risto's pump and before missive rumors started. Go look, that wasn't my first post about the syndicate bid

[onemorebtc]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

fifth I would like to thank the syndicate bidders for their patience, everyone that actually replied (via PM) to my numerous posts about forming syndicate bid knows who they are.

a) none of them were taken out

b) I was forming that before Risto's pump and before missive rumors started. Go look, that wasn't my first post about the syndicate bid

doesnt change the fact that you are a lier.
so no thanks: not interested in you "syndicate"

[Bassica]

Haha, well congrats stslimited. How much did you manage to avoid losing? Couple of K's? Was that really worth your reputation?

Crypto really is to sleazeballs what those blue lights are to flies.

[jehst]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

He was involved in Labcoin (now worth 0), ASICMiner (now worth almost zero), posted about anoncoin (dead) and a bunch of other "cryptoassets."

He first starts posting in this thread (XMR) on or before July, 2014.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg8084343#msg8084343

So he probably got burned by XMR, too. Understandably, he feels frustrated and wants to pump XMR to make back some money, Sorry dude. I'm not interested in shitcoins or P&D syndicates. I didn't move my bids/asks the first time you asked. I didn't respond to your last pm. Yes, I'm an XMR heavy since Oct/Nov, so I'm not desperate nor am I interested in helping you make $100 or whatever kind of small-time bullshit money you're trying to make.

[e-coinomist]

I really appreciate the warning, but heres what I would do: wait longer than I originally announced so most trigger-happy, short-term speculators would start to get dumpey and when prices are near of even bellow my original announcement I would start mass-buying, boom surprise

Stop talking out open about those twisted plots, villain! Secrecy would be really evil, wouldn't it?  

Well only boom surprise visible was telling trigger-happy, short-term Miners not to dump in a hurry and way below value. Would you sell all out for 0.008~9 if you have seen double from that just days ago?

Poking my own nose there, now keeping fresh minted coins.

[stslimited]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

He was involved in Labcoin (now worth 0), ASICMiner (now worth almost zero), posted about anoncoin (dead) and a bunch of other "cryptoassets."

He first starts posting in this thread (XMR) on or before July, 2014.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg8084343#msg8084343

So he probably got burned by XMR, too. Understandably, he feels frustrated and wants to pump XMR to make back some money, Sorry dude. I'm not interested in shitcoins or P&D syndicates. I didn't move my bids/asks the first time you asked. I didn't respond to your last pm. Yes, I'm an XMR heavy since Oct/Nov, so I'm not desperate nor am I interested in helping you make $100 or whatever kind of small-time bullshit money you're trying to make.

Those were actually all very good trades?

I sold the Monero position below my cost basis. It was actually a lot. If Risto disappeared then I couldn't sell without crashing the market. The volume was several hundred bitcoin, the last couple days, and my sells didn't crash the market, they were eaten up very well.

[stslimited]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

fifth I would like to thank the syndicate bidders for their patience, everyone that actually replied (via PM) to my numerous posts about forming syndicate bid knows who they are.

a) none of them were taken out

b) I was forming that before Risto's pump and before missive rumors started. Go look, that wasn't my first post about the syndicate bid

doesnt change the fact that you are a lier.
so no thanks: not interested in you "syndicate"

How? Nobody filled .00161 , that wasn't my order, I sold deep into the bids, you probably got a partial fill from me.

I judged the strength of Risto's pump, set a target, saw that there wasn't any strength. Some people use charts to see their arbitrary breakout patterns, I look specifically at the orders. Anybody can print a higher price on a chart, take a screenshot and say look my technical analysis is coming true. But to judge continuation in the trend you have to see how the orders are acting.

The missive had nothing to help with the rally or with Monero's potentially new found attention, and I decided that there isn't a reason holding this right now. When Risto disappear's I can't sell.

If someone did fill that order at .00161 I would have still filled the order at .0017 and kept the rally going. But it fizzled because it was bullshit, just Risto

so ultimately, my group is getting better returns in other assets in more established markets (not crypto!). Monero is still on the radar but it turns out that we can unlink our transactions whenever we want without needing to hold thousands of monero in the meantime. When we want to do that, we'll pick up some more Monero , no matter where it is in development or exchange rate.

[stslimited]

Haha, well congrats stslimited. How much did you manage to avoid losing? Couple of K's? Was that really worth your reputation?

Crypto really is to sleazeballs what those blue lights are to flies.

haha it was a pretty big position, the volume hasn't been 300 bitcoin just because Risto was trading back and forth. so again like I said, thanks to Risto for the liquidity. (I guarantee he was selling too, you could tell by how some of the sell walls acted)

You should get mad at the pumper.

I'm still doing the syndicate bid when Risto's bs fizzles out, and monero development gets further along in actual consequential usability

[3x2]

Thats why i never buy when big guys recommend 

[stslimited]

Thats why i never buy when big guys recommend  

exactly

Nobody ever said "Fontas you are a godsend", people try to sell before he does!

This is how you should treat Risto, instead of trying to psychoanalyze his [obvious] motives

[jehst]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

He was involved in Labcoin (now worth 0), ASICMiner (now worth almost zero), posted about anoncoin (dead) and a bunch of other "cryptoassets."

He first starts posting in this thread (XMR) on or before July, 2014.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg8084343#msg8084343

So he probably got burned by XMR, too. Understandably, he feels frustrated and wants to pump XMR to make back some money, Sorry dude. I'm not interested in shitcoins or P&D syndicates. I didn't move my bids/asks the first time you asked. I didn't respond to your last pm. Yes, I'm an XMR heavy since Oct/Nov, so I'm not desperate nor am I interested in helping you make $100 or whatever kind of small-time bullshit money you're trying to make.

Those were actually all very good trades?

I sold the Monero position below my cost basis. It was actually a lot. If Risto disappeared then I couldn't sell without crashing the market. The volume was several hundred bitcoin, the last couple days, and my sells didn't crash the market they were eating up very well.

Do you know how I know you're not telling the truth? Because you said "those were all very good trades." There's not a single trader, including Warren Buffett who doesn't make bad calls. The first rule to making your tales of glory sound believable is to add some slight failures. Some hiccups along the way. You need to craft a story with emotional depth that draws the reader in. If you had said "It's true that I lost some money on X, but my gains in Y and Z were 10x my losses on X" then I might actually have a sliver of a doubt that you weren't full of shit. You have a lot to learn if you want to walk the path of the fraudster. But I suggest you turn back now. It will bleed into every aspect of your life, not just business, and ultimately it will lead to misery. But  I guess your life may already be miserable. So you figure "Things really can't can't get worse, can they?" They can.

[nakaone]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

secondly, I would like to thank the operator of Poloniex for their prompt support during a period of high volatility and liquidity, and for raising my bitcoin and monero withdrawal limits

thirdly, I would like to thank fluffypony, smooth et. al for their suspense in releasing the missive, even though it didn't contain anything the market was actually waiting for

fourth, I would like to commend the aforementioned core devs for their surprise decision by committee to release it in audio format, so that the market could not disseminate it fast enough to undermine my selling plans

everybody is free to do what he wants to do, so congratulations for reaching your objectives.

funniest thing is that you even see the potential as later posts show but still decide to sell the potential for 33 cents each - I try hard to understand the objectives of these operations but seem to fail. Maybe you can explain them to me

Anyway maybe we are all dead wrong and you are right, or the market stays longer irrational as we stay solvent - I think only time can tell.

[stslimited]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

secondly, I would like to thank the operator of Poloniex for their prompt support during a period of high volatility and liquidity, and for raising my bitcoin and monero withdrawal limits

thirdly, I would like to thank fluffypony, smooth et. al for their suspense in releasing the missive, even though it didn't contain anything the market was actually waiting for

fourth, I would like to commend the aforementioned core devs for their surprise decision by committee to release it in audio format, so that the market could not disseminate it fast enough to undermine my selling plans

everybody is free to do what he wants to do, so congratulations for reaching your objectives.

funniest thing is that you even see the potential as later posts show but still decide to sell the potential for 33 cents each - I try hard to understand the objectives of these operations but seem to fail. Maybe you can explain them to me

Anyway maybe we are all dead wrong and you are right, or the market stays longer irrational as we stay solvent - I think only time can tell.

the reason is lack of conviction from other market participants.

I think Monero is worth a lot more, buttt not right now.

So when I realized that this thing wasn't going up to my cost basis in Risto's rally. I thought "hm I could sell now and use capital in other places" or be stuck in a position when Risto gets bored. Monero has bounced around to these price levels before, so this time, with the unparalleled liquidity, I decided to hop out. Thanks Risto.

Taking the loss also will help my tax situation, offset gains in other assets.