[XMR] Monero Speculation

[wpalczynski]

BullBear report pretty bullish on XMR too.  Things are looking good.

just today I saw somone put a 15 BTC buy wall on poloniex after saying he would... and his name was not rpietila, fact is Monero is one of the most distributed altcoins out there.

btw wall is still there

[TrueCryptonaire]

Do I smell an upcoming pump? 

[TrueCryptonaire]

first and foremost, I would like to thank Risto (rpietila) for providing the liquidity that myself and my group of investors needed to dump at good prices. His spiel about low prices - even though the same logic has been applicable for 7 months or 210 days - gave us the liquidity catalyst to liquidate holdings near our cost basis.

can everyone with buy orders in the .0010 range move your bid orders up a bit higher, I'm trying to form a syndicate bid with a bigger buy wall closer to the International Best Bid Best Offer

I can take out the order at .0017 if someone else fills the order at .00161 , judging conviction before I start filling heavily. I can take out the higher ask because this is still below my cost basis.

no comment needed

fifth I would like to thank the syndicate bidders for their patience, everyone that actually replied (via PM) to my numerous posts about forming syndicate bid knows who they are.

a) none of them were taken out

b) I was forming that before Risto's pump and before missive rumors started. Go look, that wasn't my first post about the syndicate bid

I could not resist the temptation to post this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P2FB9Mg_YI

Apparently you have learned the trading skills from Fyrstikken's vids. 

[Hueristic]

I could not resist the temptation to post this vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P2FB9Mg_YI

Apparently you have learned the trading skills from Fyrstikken's vids. 

[opennux]

Eventually, as usage increases (and I think it will thanks to XMR.to), people that want to buy something privately will maybe buy 50$ worth of XMR even though their purchase only requires 40$ worth. Sure, this is one person now with 10 XMR off the markets, decreasing supply by a tiny tiny fraction, but this will add up, over time.

And further to make speculation of XMR even more difficult, is that the price of XMR doesn't matter for this use case. If I need to buy 50$ worth of XMR to make a private transaction, it doesn't matter if 50$ buys my 150 XMR or if it buys me 0.001 XMR.

When it comes to the idea of price of Monero goes up if it gets more transactional use, this is false statement.
Here is very simple reasoning: You convert 50 usd to xmr and spend them and the merchant dumps the coins back to market => the effect is more or less neutral.
If the merchant keeps the coins and do not dump them, then it is obviously very bullish especially if there are lot more merchants deciding to hodl.

Hodling is the only thing which gives a value for a coin. Without hodling the coin serves a mere token and cannot reach any significiant prices.

The latter part of your message is true - indeed it doesn't matter if you get 0.001 XMR or 150 with 50 usd.

Monero will rise in price only and only if more new people enter to the markets long time enough.

This is not exactly true because no matter how efficient the buyer and seller are in hedging their exposure to XMR there is going to be minimum holding period between the buyer and the seller. The process is is never instantaneous. It is this minimum holding period that makes the use of XMR in commerce very bullish at a fundamental level.

The time would at least be the time the of the average bitcoin transaction - if you were using xmr.to. If you do simple "on the back of a napkin" calculations, of how much of the (xmr & btc) monetary mass would be removed from the market at all times, it's not insignificant.

[smooth]

Eventually, as usage increases (and I think it will thanks to XMR.to), people that want to buy something privately will maybe buy 50$ worth of XMR even though their purchase only requires 40$ worth. Sure, this is one person now with 10 XMR off the markets, decreasing supply by a tiny tiny fraction, but this will add up, over time.

And further to make speculation of XMR even more difficult, is that the price of XMR doesn't matter for this use case. If I need to buy 50$ worth of XMR to make a private transaction, it doesn't matter if 50$ buys my 150 XMR or if it buys me 0.001 XMR.

When it comes to the idea of price of Monero goes up if it gets more transactional use, this is false statement.
Here is very simple reasoning: You convert 50 usd to xmr and spend them and the merchant dumps the coins back to market => the effect is more or less neutral.
If the merchant keeps the coins and do not dump them, then it is obviously very bullish especially if there are lot more merchants deciding to hodl.

Hodling is the only thing which gives a value for a coin. Without hodling the coin serves a mere token and cannot reach any significiant prices.

The latter part of your message is true - indeed it doesn't matter if you get 0.001 XMR or 150 with 50 usd.

Monero will rise in price only and only if more new people enter to the markets long time enough.

This is not exactly true because no matter how efficient the buyer and seller are in hedging their exposure to XMR there is going to be minimum holding period between the buyer and the seller. The process is is never instantaneous. It is this minimum holding period that makes the use of XMR in commerce very bullish at a fundamental level.

The time would at least be the time the of the average bitcoin transaction - if you were using xmr.to. If you do simple "on the back of a napkin" calculations, of how much of the (xmr & btc) monetary mass would be removed from the market at all times, it's not insignificant.

It isn't insignificant but really the bigger factor for use-in-commerce is just that people won't instantly and constantly convert, for convenience reasons if nothing else. If you know you are going to make another purchase tomorrow or the next day or even next week you will just keep the coins. Even in an environment (not now) when short term interest rates are significant, people don't put all their spending money into interest-bearing accounts; they still hold on to some cash.

We're a long way from use-in-commerce being significant enough to matter though. BTC isn't there and BTC is about 700 times bigger than XMR.

[opennux]

Eventually, as usage increases (and I think it will thanks to XMR.to), people that want to buy something privately will maybe buy 50$ worth of XMR even though their purchase only requires 40$ worth. Sure, this is one person now with 10 XMR off the markets, decreasing supply by a tiny tiny fraction, but this will add up, over time.

And further to make speculation of XMR even more difficult, is that the price of XMR doesn't matter for this use case. If I need to buy 50$ worth of XMR to make a private transaction, it doesn't matter if 50$ buys my 150 XMR or if it buys me 0.001 XMR.

When it comes to the idea of price of Monero goes up if it gets more transactional use, this is false statement.
Here is very simple reasoning: You convert 50 usd to xmr and spend them and the merchant dumps the coins back to market => the effect is more or less neutral.
If the merchant keeps the coins and do not dump them, then it is obviously very bullish especially if there are lot more merchants deciding to hodl.

Hodling is the only thing which gives a value for a coin. Without hodling the coin serves a mere token and cannot reach any significiant prices.

The latter part of your message is true - indeed it doesn't matter if you get 0.001 XMR or 150 with 50 usd.

Monero will rise in price only and only if more new people enter to the markets long time enough.

This is not exactly true because no matter how efficient the buyer and seller are in hedging their exposure to XMR there is going to be minimum holding period between the buyer and the seller. The process is is never instantaneous. It is this minimum holding period that makes the use of XMR in commerce very bullish at a fundamental level.

The time would at least be the time the of the average bitcoin transaction - if you were using xmr.to. If you do simple "on the back of a napkin" calculations, of how much of the (xmr & btc) monetary mass would be removed from the market at all times, it's not insignificant.

It isn't insignificant but really the bigger factor for use-in-commerce is just that people won't instantly and constantly convert, for convenience reasons if nothing else. If you know you are going to make another purchase tomorrow or the next day or even next week you will just keep the coins. Even in an environment (not now) when short term interest rates are significant, people don't put all their spending money into interest-bearing accounts; they still hold on to some cash.

We're a long way from use-in-commerce being significant enough to matter though. BTC isn't there and BTC is about 700 times bigger than XMR.

I concur, of course. Holding and spending quickly adds magnitudes to the numbers.

[rpietila]

Assuming someone really wanted to buy like 200BTC worth of XMR when the price was low, he couldnt do that without obviously pumping the price. Even more so when half the sell orders were his own.If you dont say anything people will think that, well, the time they were waiting for may be coming indeed and wont sell. They may even buy more.

So what is best to do? Tell the people that you are manipulating the price. People dislike that. They play along but stay alarmed and sell when they feel a bit scared. After all its just manipulation. So i would argue that you actually manage to buy the coins you wanted at better price by stating that you are manipulating the price.

And this way also has a plus. Your words gain more trust if you say something and that happens. You can use that in the future. Maybe really near future too.

Only thing i really dont think you are going to do is to wait 24h to buy. You actually buy the moment you said that you are going to buy.

Oh and remember, it is also buying when people (from a wannabe syndicates or not) dump on you

I wait 24 hours if I say I wait 24 hours. If I don't say, I can do what I want. Those 24 hours have already expired.

What I currently have said is that:

- Monero price will rise (from the starting point of 115k);
- I will aim to focus the marketing to investor-minded people who have significantly more money than currently invested in Monero;
- I have money under management that is about to flow to Monero;
- I hope that the small guys who already know about Monero, get back on board first.

If you project other wishes of yours to me, hoping that I make them true, you will be disappointed. I have explained what I believe is the best investment approach towards Monero here in this thread, and will probably do it in a dedicated website soon as well.

Both the core team and the MEW are cooperatives, because those aims can only be reached by networks of people. The coming Monero Investment Group (MiG) is largely a one-man effort (to eliminate the possibility of collusion). The aim is to dispense facts for people to act upon, for everyone to make his own decision. Let the MEW take care of the social aspect.

It's becoming tiring to explain the same thing the 4th time in 4 days, and getting accused of untransparency. These are my plans, and as long as Monero stays cheap, no one can stop me from achieving them. When it goes up, they are achieved.

We are changing to the "money talks, bullshit walks" phase. The power that the current holders have against the influx of new money is to sell. That power can be exercised only once. Use it, but with caution, since the target value of Monero is not 10x or even 1,000x, it is 100,000x the current value.

[opennux]

Assuming someone really wanted to buy like 200BTC worth of XMR when the price was low, he couldnt do that without obviously pumping the price. Even more so when half the sell orders were his own.If you dont say anything people will think that, well, the time they were waiting for may be coming indeed and wont sell. They may even buy more.

So what is best to do? Tell the people that you are manipulating the price. People dislike that. They play along but stay alarmed and sell when they feel a bit scared. After all its just manipulation. So i would argue that you actually manage to buy the coins you wanted at better price by stating that you are manipulating the price.

And this way also has a plus. Your words gain more trust if you say something and that happens. You can use that in the future. Maybe really near future too.

Only thing i really dont think you are going to do is to wait 24h to buy. You actually buy the moment you said that you are going to buy.

Oh and remember, it is also buying when people (from a wannabe syndicates or not) dump on you

I wait 24 hours if I say I wait 24 hours. If I don't say, I can do what I want. Those 24 hours have already expired.

What I currently have said is that:

- Monero price will rise (from the starting point of 115k);
- I will aim to focus the marketing to investor-minded people who have significantly more money than currently invested in Monero;
- I have money under management that is about to flow to Monero;
- I hope that the small guys who already know about Monero, get back on board first.

If you project other wishes of yours to me, hoping that I make them true, you will be disappointed. I have explained what I believe is the best investment approach towards Monero here in this thread, and will probably do it in a dedicated website soon as well.

Both the core team and the MEW are cooperatives, because those aims can only be reached by networks of people. The coming Monero Investment Group (MiG) is largely a one-man effort (to eliminate the possibility of collusion). The aim is to dispense facts for people to act upon, for everyone to make his own decision. Let the MEW take care of the social aspect.

It's becoming tiring to explain the same thing the 4th time in 4 days, and getting accused of untransparency. These are my plans, and as long as Monero stays cheap, no one can stop me from achieving them. When it goes up, they are achieved.

We are changing to the "money talks, bullshit walks" phase. The power that the current holders have against the influx of new money is to sell. That power can be exercised only once. Use it, but with caution, since the target value of Monero is not 10x or even 1,000x, it is 100,000x the current value.

Some of us understood perfectly the first time around. Plenty of people read and don't necessarily tell you how appreciative they are. Some read and don't even have user accounts on here. You catch disproportionately more flack than thanks.

Guys, how many other would give a heads up like this to early adopters and passionates?

[arnuschky]

Some of us understood perfectly the first time around. Plenty of people read and don't necessarily tell you how appreciative they are. Some read and don't even have user accounts on here. You catch disproportionately more flack than thanks.

Agree.

[jehst]

Cryptocurrency, generally speaking, is about not trusting people. Risto will agree that you need to do your own research and make your own decisions. If someone offers advice or information, you must interpret that information as best as you can. Ultimately, you are the sole judge and interpreter of your experiences. No one else can do it for you.

[rpietila]

I knew about bitcoin in 2010-2011 and it was not really lack of skill or existing capital that I did not invest, it was because of hard work. I was working too hard to have time to seriously consider Bitcoin.

[rpietila]

Cryptocurrency, generally speaking, is about not trusting people. Risto will agree that you need to do your own research and make your own decisions. If someone offers advice or information, you must interpret that information as best as you can. Ultimately, you are the sole judge and interpreter of your experiences. No one else can do it for you.

That is true.

However - the biggest reward is given not to those who had the most knowledge, but to those who had the most coins.

[jehst]

Cryptocurrency, generally speaking, is about not trusting people. Risto will agree that you need to do your own research and make your own decisions. If someone offers advice or information, you must interpret that information as best as you can. Ultimately, you are the sole judge and interpreter of your experiences. No one else can do it for you.

That is true.

However - the biggest reward is given not to those who had the most knowledge, but to those who had the most coins.

Absolutely. This isn't a university exam. A drunk plumber who spends 5 minutes thinking about bitcoin and decides to throw $1000 at it will make more money than the doctor who spends years debating and delaying. He can also lose more. In the end, the results will speak for themselves.

[coinits]

Do I smell an upcoming pump? 

No. I just finished my morning coffee erm laxative so just the opposite is what you smell.

 

[Exther2]

Monero is a special coin, not many communities are this united towards a common and honest objetive, I think even if we achive only a fraction its thanks to all people involved, capable leaders like the core team and rpietila end changing the world. Of course none of it ever done without a fight, the ground is covered with trolls...

Analyzing your words and will give you my advice:

"Monero is a special coin" - every coin is special by its own way,
"not many communities are this united towards a common and honest objetive" - this is not so stable argument, skipping,

"I think even if we achive only a fraction its thanks to all people involved, capable leaders like the core team and rpietila end changing the world." Amazing? Not. That's only what you think.

"Of course none of it ever done without a fight, the ground is covered with trolls..."
This is truth.

Now, about this "special" coin (you defined it like that), it's nothing special as it's going to die.
Why is it going to die?
Because marketing is too weak, dev's are realy slow (I don't care, but I see long time just some small movements).

Not many people are interested as price has gone down like 5x.
Ok, it is "recovering".
But is it? Or someone is pushing it up a bit?
Can't say for sure any, but for sure it's not the coin of my choice.

[Hueristic]

Now, about this "special" coin (you defined it like that), it's nothing special as it's going to die.
Why is it going to die?
Because marketing is too weak, dev's are realy slow (I don't care, but I see long time just some small movements).

Analyzing your words:

If you believed this then you would not be in this thread, you would just let it die. your motives are clear.

You fail.

[smooth]

Now, about this "special" coin (you defined it like that), it's nothing special as it's going to die.
Why is it going to die?
Because marketing is too weak, dev's are realy slow (I don't care, but I see long time just some small movements).

Analyzing your words:

If you believed this then you would not be in this thread, you would just let it die. your motives are clear.

Not entirely, it could be two possibilities. He may be trolling (and he probably can't help it because trolls are mentally ill, or paid) or he may be talking the price down so he can buy lower.  It is unlikely he has altruistically sharing his insightful analysis the world of poor naive crypto investors.

[Exther2]

I'm saying I like Monero in a Monero thread and you are saying otherwise, I wonder why, the coin already proved itself and its taking off the ground, whether you like it or not, so I say your arguments arrived dead in this conversation. I personally don't want to convince you nor I care what is your "coin of choice", and I guarantee you won't convince me out of my beliefs.

Monero is the special coin.

Proved itself? How? By going so low that 50% people stopped mining it?
Taking off the ground by "jump" and dump?
I will not write about other coins, but this one leaks out with bad marketing and will never be alive as some famous coin.
Work is needed on it and the truth is that some people are working but there is still a lot of work needed to make this coin to be special. For now, it's not special. Not for me.

Not entirely, it could be two possibilities. He may be trolling (and he probably can't help it because trolls are mentally ill, or paid) or he may be talking the price down so he can buy lower.  It is unlikely he has altruistically sharing his insightful analysis the world of poor naive crypto investors.

About mental illness insult I will report you. It's not nice to insult me like that which you clearly did.
About "poor" and "naive" crypto investitors, it's their choice, cant help em.

[Hueristic]

I'm saying I like Monero in a Monero thread and you are saying otherwise, I wonder why, the coin already proved itself and its taking off the ground, whether you like it or not, so I say your arguments arrived dead in this conversation. I personally don't want to convince you nor I care what is your "coin of choice", and I guarantee you won't convince me out of my beliefs.

Monero is the special coin.

Proved itself? How? By going so low that 50% people stopped mining it?
Taking off the ground by "jump" and dump?
I will not write about other coins, but this one leaks out with bad marketing and will never be alive as some famous coin.
Work is needed on it and the truth is that some people are working but there is still a lot of work needed to make this coin to be special. For now, it's not special. Not for me.

Not entirely, it could be two possibilities. He may be trolling (and he probably can't help it because trolls are mentally ill, or paid) or he may be talking the price down so he can buy lower.  It is unlikely he has altruistically sharing his insightful analysis the world of poor naive crypto investors.

About mental illness insult I will report you. It's not nice to insult me like that which you clearly did.
About "poor" and "naive" crypto investitors, it's their choice, cant help em.

I notice you conveniently forgot to rebuke my statement.