[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-December/011973.html A very interesting analysis by Jeff Garzik describing the economic risk to Bitcoin of doing nothing on the block size issue. He defines "Fee Event" as

FE - "Fee Event", the condition where main chain MSG_BLOCK is 95+% to hard limit for 7 or more days in row, "blocks generally full"   This can also be induced by a miner squeeze collective soft limit reduction).

His key observation is what he describes as an "Economic Change Event"

*Key observation:   A Bitcoin Fee Event (see def. at top) is an Economic Change Event.*
An Economic Change Event is a period of market chaos, where large changes to prices and sets of economic actors occurs over a short time period.
A Fee Event is a notable Economic Change Event, where a realistic projection forsees higher fee/KB on average, pricing some economic actors (bitcoin projects and businesses) out of the system.

The key question here is: What is the impact of an "Economic Change Event" in Bitcoin on the Monero market given that Monero has already a viable solution to this problem and that almost all Monero trading is currently done in terms of Bitcoin?

[americanpegasus]

I don't know anything about Economic Change Events but it's easy to see that Bitcoin will not fulfill it's promise as worldwide digital cash.  All this talk of fee markets, and using it for major settlements implies that though it may be valuable - it is not digital money for global civilization. 
 
The future is exciting for Monero.

[boolberry]

I am still wearing my sun glasses and thus seeing the future pretty dark.
However, I am not selling any of my holdings but I ain't buying either since I have just enough coins for significiant amount of cash in case I am wrong with my bearishness.

Happy Winter Solstice everybody

Happy Winter Solstice!

[medusa13]

...One could argue it could turn in a sell the news event with the new upcoming updates..

Seems unlikely. I have argued before that this is not really a rumour-news event, because no one really knows the date of the new release. I would agree with you if there was a set date for the upcoming release.

One little remark, this is crypto, so you could be right.

EDIT: Also, we had that little spike last week one huge volume. It could very well be that those buyers dumped later because the "spike" lost momentum.

i also do not think it will be a rumor-news thing. many allready tried to frontrun it and got burned by doing so.
the big news is the hardfork in march and my guess it this is not yet priced in. but it will come, even if 0.9 is released in february if i understood correctly. with the first hardfork there wont be this full 6 months cycle. (please tell if wrong)

so yeah there is a date somehow and it will be a very big event for monero. we still have a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this hardfork will increase default functionality for everyone and make monero a much much better coin. having a pimped client with less ram and new db etc is only the bonus if you ask me, its all about the minimum mixing.


btw yes i very much agree on the liquidity thing. since we all provide liquidity, why cant it be higher like it was earlier? in my view it really has a lot to do with polos kyc rules. am i wrong? or are you guys just broke? 

at least the polo kyc is the main reason for me. i do not want to get full registration.

so could an exchange without kyc/aml help against the liquidity shortage? or is it just a general market phase that many coins/markets experience

[ArticMine]

I don't know anything about Economic Change Events but it's easy to see that Bitcoin will not fulfill it's promise as worldwide digital cash.  All this talk of fee markets, and using it for major settlements implies that though it may be valuable - it is not digital money for global civilization.  
  
The future is exciting for Monero.

A fee market that prices in the increase in the blocksize vs transaction fees is critical if a POW crypto - currency is to have global widespread use. So it does make a lot of sense for Bitcoin to be discussing fee markets. Monero already has a fee market solution in place; however the Monero solution cannot be implemented in Bitcoin since it is predicated on a tail emission. Furthermore none of the other major alt coins have a solution to this issue. The best partial solution is Dodgecoin since it also has a tail emission. Bytecoin's "solution" of adaptive blocksize limits without a tail emission is a prescription for disaster since once the emission runs out or becomes minimal there is no way to secure the network. This by the way is what scares many of the the small block crowd including many of the core developers in Bitcoin into not increasing the maximum block size.

At this point in time there is scant awareness of this critical issue in Bitcoin, and the fact the Monero has a working solution right now, within the Monero community let alone outside of it.

[nioc]

medusa13, I believe you are correct about the timing of the hardfork but as smooth pointed out, being that 0.9 will be a vast improvement a majority will upgrade to it once it is released.  

As far as liquidity, I'm not a big fish and accumulate as opposed to trading.  I haven't been on polo since they instituted their KYC policy.  After leaving I first used ShapeShift.  I have no idea what their volume is or even if it can be tracked.  I have used Bittrex for a while now with no KYC.  Their liquidity is low but I can get want I want there.  The bots on Bittrex are tied to the movements on Polo.  My last bid missed out by 1 satoshi a day or 2 ago.  Damn bots

 

[dEBRUYNE]

...One could argue it could turn in a sell the news event with the new upcoming updates..

Seems unlikely. I have argued before that this is not really a rumour-news event, because no one really knows the date of the new release. I would agree with you if there was a set date for the upcoming release.

One little remark, this is crypto, so you could be right.

EDIT: Also, we had that little spike last week one huge volume. It could very well be that those buyers dumped later because the "spike" lost momentum.

i also do not think it will be a rumor-news thing. many allready tried to frontrun it and got burned by doing so.
the big news is the hardfork in march and my guess it this is not yet priced in. but it will come, even if 0.9 is released in february if i understood correctly. with the first hardfork there wont be this full 6 months cycle. (please tell if wrong)

so yeah there is a date somehow and it will be a very big event for monero. we still have a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this hardfork will increase default functionality for everyone and make monero a much much better coin. having a pimped client with less ram and new db etc is only the bonus if you ask me, its all about the minimum mixing.


btw yes i very much agree on the liquidity thing. since we all provide liquidity, why cant it be higher like it was earlier? in my view it really has a lot to do with polos kyc rules. am i wrong? or are you guys just broke?  

at least the polo kyc is the main reason for me. i do not want to get full registration.

so could an exchange without kyc/aml help against the liquidity shortage? or is it just a general market phase that many coins/markets experience

If there is any confusion around the hardfork, read this -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3n06qw/there_seems_to_be_some_confusion_around_the/

Regarding polo and liquidity. It is a bit of both. First, back in the day the max withdrawal limit was the same for everyone. In other words, everyone could withdraw an unlimited (might have been 25k, not entirely sure about that) amount. Thus, it was fairly easy to get out your money quickly. With the KYC in place, polo literally needs to know everything about you before you have this 25k limit. Name and country will only give you a limit of 2k, which is quite small if you want to provide liquidity. Even the 7k limit, that you get after filling in some additional data, such as address if I recall correctly, is quite small if you want to provide liquidity. Certainly with the current BTC prices. At last, providing KYC data to companies is a huge turn off for people involved with cryptocurrency. It isn't necessarily that they are warry of providing the data itself. Just that they are warry of the possibility that their data might leak after a hack. Like I said before, polo literally needs to know everything from you to raise your limit to 25k (including photos if I recall correctly). If this data gets leaked somehow, that's a huge personal risk (think of identity theft, which is certainly no joke).

[medusa13]

exactly. i do not trust a small private company to keep my data safe over the years to come(also i do not trust gov to keep it safe). or what happens to my data if they go broke?

would love to open such an non kyc exchange. but good dev that can handle it are expensive+i fear the legal stuff, it will be expensive too but doable. shapeshift can do it too.
also i have respect from webpages in general, since the browsers just adds this unpredictable factor. sure there are tools to help you test, but its still a pain if you want to have professional product that always works. it seems like a huge and difficult project to me.

security seems doable if manpower is involved to handle the cold wallets and critical tasks. the more automatisation, the more expensive i guess.

[opennux]

...One could argue it could turn in a sell the news event with the new upcoming updates..

Seems unlikely. I have argued before that this is not really a rumour-news event, because no one really knows the date of the new release. I would agree with you if there was a set date for the upcoming release.

One little remark, this is crypto, so you could be right.

EDIT: Also, we had that little spike last week one huge volume. It could very well be that those buyers dumped later because the "spike" lost momentum.

i also do not think it will be a rumor-news thing. many allready tried to frontrun it and got burned by doing so.
the big news is the hardfork in march and my guess it this is not yet priced in. but it will come, even if 0.9 is released in february if i understood correctly. with the first hardfork there wont be this full 6 months cycle. (please tell if wrong)

so yeah there is a date somehow and it will be a very big event for monero. we still have a lot of transactions with mixing 0, this hardfork will increase default functionality for everyone and make monero a much much better coin. having a pimped client with less ram and new db etc is only the bonus if you ask me, its all about the minimum mixing.


btw yes i very much agree on the liquidity thing. since we all provide liquidity, why cant it be higher like it was earlier? in my view it really has a lot to do with polos kyc rules. am i wrong? or are you guys just broke?  

at least the polo kyc is the main reason for me. i do not want to get full registration.

so could an exchange without kyc/aml help against the liquidity shortage? or is it just a general market phase that many coins/markets experience

If there is any confusion around the hardfork, read this -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3n06qw/there_seems_to_be_some_confusion_around_the/

Regarding polo and liquidity. It is a bit of both. First, back in the day the max withdrawal limit was the same for everyone. In other words, everyone could withdraw an unlimited (might have been 25k, not entirely sure about that) amount. Thus, it was fairly easy to get out your money quickly. With the KYC in place, polo literally needs to know everything about you before you have this 25k limit. Name and country will only give you a limit of 2k, which is quite small if you want to provide liquidity. Even the 7k limit, that you get after filling in some additional data, such as address if I recall correctly, is quite small if you want to provide liquidity. Certainly with the current BTC prices. At last, providing KYC data to companies is a huge turn off for people involved with cryptocurrency. It isn't necessarily that they are warry of providing the data itself. Just that they are warry of the possibility that their data might leak after a hack. Like I said before, polo literally needs to know everything from you to raise your limit to 25k (including photos if I recall correctly). If this data gets leaked somehow, that's a huge personal risk (think of identity theft, which is certainly no joke).

Precisely. They have been hacked before (to their credit made customers good again), but you can't make good something like theft of ID. ID theft coupled with the knowledge of how many XMR/BTC you have (and note that many of us speculate they will be worth much more in the future) is surely not a winning proposition.

[SmoothCurves]

I feel like XMR will stay low until Q1 2016 and then take off growing and surprising many folk in the latter parts of that year.

[dEBRUYNE]

In case anyone missed it:

Monero-nodejs v1.0.1: A Node.js wallet manager for interacting with Monero's simplewallet over JSON-RPC

https://github.com/PsychicCat/monero-nodejs

[primer-]

All alts except monero green on polo...  Dash up 20% in the last 48h.
Perfect time to push the price up 10-20%...

[binaryFate]

All alts except monero green on polo...  Dash up 20% in the last 48h.
Perfect time to push the price up 10-20%...

Pumpers not welcomed here.

[primer-]

All alts except monero green on polo...  Dash up 20% in the last 48h.
Perfect time to push the price up 10-20%...

Pumpers not welcomed here.

Market makers you donkey..

[binaryFate]

All alts except monero green on polo...  Dash up 20% in the last 48h.
Perfect time to push the price up 10-20%...

Pumpers not welcomed here.

Market makers you donkey..

Market makers certainly don't feel the need to talk here like you do.

[dEBRUYNE]

All alts except monero green on polo...  Dash up 20% in the last 48h.
Perfect time to push the price up 10-20%...

Pumpers not welcomed here.

I agree with him on this occassion though, would be nice to see it up as well. Even if that is qualified as "pump".

EDIT: Also no need for hostility here.

[primer-]

Market makers certainly don't feel the need to talk here like you do.

...as if you know what market makers are/do..

[dEBRUYNE]

Crosspost:

Where is the podcat?  I don't see it at it's usual location on the Monero Forum.

Meow

Half the fun is finding it.

I guess the forum listing isn't updated yet.

Live on iTunes though -> https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-monero-missive-podcast/id1032156854?mt=2

Monero Missives

In this week's episode we interview psi, from the I2P project, and also announce the new Monero Kovri project, an open-source C++ router. The source can be found here: https://github.com/monero-project/kovri. Until next week! (this is now a running joke...right guys?)

In case you don't have iTunes -> http://podbay.fm/show/1032156854/e/1451151298?autostart=1

EDIT: FYI: There is some discussion in the missive about I2P vs TOR. However, if I understood correctly, you can run I2P either as I2P-only, I2P/IP bridged or IP-only (see -> https://getmonero.org/design-goals/). Thus, the latter will still make it possible for you to run Monero over TOR socks. I am not entirely sure about this, so if what was stated is incorrect, feel free to correct me.

[ArticMine]

...

In case you don't have iTunes -> http://podbay.fm/show/1032156854/e/1451151298?autostart=1

EDIT: FYI: There is some discussion in the missive about I2P vs TOR. However, if I understood correctly, you can run I2P either as I2P-only, I2P/IP bridged or IP-only (see -> https://getmonero.org/design-goals/). Thus, the latter will still make it possible for you to run Monero over TOR socks. I am not entirely sure about this, so if what was stated is incorrect, feel free to correct me.

I do not have ITunes and I am proud of not having iTunes.

I listened to the missive and my understanding is that once this is completed a Monero node would by default connect to both the I2P and IP networks (I2P/IP bridged) and send transactions over I2P if I2P was available. In this default configuration it would act as an I2P/IP bridge for Monero traffic only. The operator of the node could choose to use the Monero software to bridge other types of traffic between I2P and IP. If the IP traffic is routed over TOR socks then the bridge(s) would be between I2P and TOR socks. Of course the node could also be configured as I2P only or IP (TOR socks) only.

[TrueCryptonaire]

All alts except monero green on polo...  Dash up 20% in the last 48h.
Perfect time to push the price up 10-20%...

Pumpers not welcomed here.

I agree. Monero is probably the only coin in the universe which is not meant to be a mere pump and dump coin. All the other coins are just pump and dump schemes while this is the only honest coin.