[XMR] Monero Speculation

[slapper]

If some entity/entities decide to invest 1 billion usd into XMR, and let's assume only 10 % of Moneros are possible to get at any money (most will be held in cold storages as nobody is selling in need of money but for the urgency to help the Moneroless society around). Then, 1 000 000 000 usd / 1 844 500 xmr = 542 usd/xmr.
I think 10 % availability rate is pretty realistic as there are some selling taking place when the price rises. At current prices only a fraction is traded, and even the same coin is probably traded several times within a day back and forth.

Reach out to libertarians Koch brothers then. An easier route is to lay off the pipe.

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[BldSwtTrs]

Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?

[GingerAle]

Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?

Jwinterm made a GUI.
The Monero community funded a developer with 14k XMR to develop the "official" GUI
https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

And there was that other GUI that was made recently by someone.

If poloniex died, volume would probably move to bittrex.

of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?

[TrueCryptonaire]

If some entity/entities decide to invest 1 billion usd into XMR, and let's assume only 10 % of Moneros are possible to get at any money (most will be held in cold storages as nobody is selling in need of money but for the urgency to help the Moneroless society around). Then, 1 000 000 000 usd / 1 844 500 xmr = 542 usd/xmr.
I think 10 % availability rate is pretty realistic as there are some selling taking place when the price rises. At current prices only a fraction is traded, and even the same coin is probably traded several times within a day back and forth.

Reach out to libertarians Koch brothers then. An easier route is to lay off the pipe.

A pitch need to be written. After that bring it to the awareness of all Forbes500 guys/girls. I am sure at least 3-5 will be interested and there you go. There will be literally a chronic shortage of available Moneros.

[flagel8]

Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?

...of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?

Unfair to shame an obvious Monero supporter, who may be unable to do the coding or lobbying which needs to be done. I can’t do it either. Which is why I refrain from commenting, usually. Because I do feel guilty about not doing these things, which, btw, I CAN’T do anyway. I don’t sing the national anthem at the Superbowl either, and anyone with ears should be grateful for that.

The only thing I can do is talk up Monero on this, or other (seemingly unrelated) forums, spread teh word among my friends and acquaintances etc. Is it a lot? No. What do Warren Buffet’s stockholders do for Berkshire Hathaway?

My fear is that we will miss this black swan event, because (among other things) we have no official gui, and only a tiny exchange called Poloniex. Will these issues be resolved before China’s move towards capital controls becomes a fait accompli?

And before Ethereum co-opts Monero’s strengths, or at least, enough of them to induce Cryptospace to embrace them (even more), while ignoring Monero, which, while still technically superior, remains Marketing-Challenged.

Ethereum has time, and timing on their side, as the #2 coin. It has user adoption, a thriving community, without even being finished. OK, no cute mascot. Still, if this event happens, say, in the next month, will Monero be ready to benefit from it? Because even rent by civil war, Hearnia, and constrained capacity, Bitcoin is. Even unfinished, Ethereum is. But Monero? Not so much. Even Dogecoin is! Such Sad, Very Despair.

[dEBRUYNE]

Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?

...of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?

Unfair to shame an obvious Monero supporter, who may be unable to do the coding or lobbying which needs to be done. I can’t do it either. Which is why I refrain from commenting, usually. Because I do feel guilty about not doing these things, which, btw, I CAN’T do anyway. I don’t sing the national anthem at the Superbowl either, and anyone with ears should be grateful for that.

The only thing I can do is talk up Monero on this, or other (seemingly unrelated) forums, spread teh word among my friends and acquaintances etc. Is it a lot? No. What do Warren Buffet’s stockholders do for Berkshire Hathaway?

My fear is that we will miss this black swan event, because (among other things) we have no official gui, and only a tiny exchange called Poloniex. Will these issues be resolved before China’s move towards capital controls becomes a fait accompli?

And before Ethereum co-opts Monero’s strengths, or at least, enough of them to induce Cryptospace to embrace them (even more), while ignoring Monero, which, while still technically superior, remains Marketing-Challenged.

Ethereum has time, and timing on their side, as the #2 coin. It has user adoption, a thriving community, without even being finished. OK, no cute mascot. Still, if this event happens, say, in the next month, will Monero be ready to benefit from it? Because even rent by civil war, Hearnia, and constrained capacity, Bitcoin is. Even unfinished, Ethereum is. But Monero? Not so much. Even Dogecoin is! Such Sad, Very Despair.

You make a few good points and I have said earlier that we shouldn't be so harsh on other guys (who might be unable to do anything) or newcomers. However, at this point the only thing we can do with respect to the GUI is wait until it is finished. Bear in mind that people are now actively working on it, see for instance:

https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity

https://github.com/mbg033/bitmonero

https://github.com/mbg033/monero-core

[GingerAle]

Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?

...of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?

Unfair to shame an obvious Monero supporter, who may be unable to do the coding or lobbying which needs to be done. I can’t do it either. Which is why I refrain from commenting, usually. Because I do feel guilty about not doing these things, which, btw, I CAN’T do anyway. I don’t sing the national anthem at the Superbowl either, and anyone with ears should be grateful for that.

The only thing I can do is talk up Monero on this, or other (seemingly unrelated) forums, spread teh word among my friends and acquaintances etc. Is it a lot? No. What do Warren Buffet’s stockholders do for Berkshire Hathaway?

My fear is that we will miss this black swan event, because (among other things) we have no official gui, and only a tiny exchange called Poloniex. Will these issues be resolved before China’s move towards capital controls becomes a fait accompli?

And before Ethereum co-opts Monero’s strengths, or at least, enough of them to induce Cryptospace to embrace them (even more), while ignoring Monero, which, while still technically superior, remains Marketing-Challenged.

Ethereum has time, and timing on their side, and 15 million USD, as the #2 coin. It has user adoption, a thriving community, without even being finished. OK, no cute mascot. Still, if this event happens, say, in the next month, will Monero be ready to benefit from it? Because even rent by civil war, Hearnia, and constrained capacity, Bitcoin is. Even unfinished, Ethereum is. But Monero? Not so much. Even Dogecoin is! Such Sad, Very Despair.

FTFY.

I'm not shaming. And how is the original post not shaming the Monero developers and community?  

First bold - they buy stock. Monero is not a stock. Its a currency.

[flagel8]

and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

[Shrikez]

Why after all this time there is still no GUI and Poloniex is still a single point of failure?

...of course, the real question to ask, is what have you done after all this time to fix these problems?

Unfair to shame an obvious Monero supporter, who may be unable to do the coding or lobbying which needs to be done. I can’t do it either. Which is why I refrain from commenting, usually. Because I do feel guilty about not doing these things, which, btw, I CAN’T do anyway. I don’t sing the national anthem at the Superbowl either, and anyone with ears should be grateful for that.

The only thing I can do is talk up Monero on this, or other (seemingly unrelated) forums, spread teh word among my friends and acquaintances etc. Is it a lot? No. What do Warren Buffet’s stockholders do for Berkshire Hathaway?

My fear is that we will miss this black swan event, because (among other things) we have no official gui, and only a tiny exchange called Poloniex. Will these issues be resolved before China’s move towards capital controls becomes a fait accompli?

And before Ethereum co-opts Monero’s strengths, or at least, enough of them to induce Cryptospace to embrace them (even more), while ignoring Monero, which, while still technically superior, remains Marketing-Challenged.

Ethereum has time, and timing on their side, as the #2 coin. It has user adoption, a thriving community, without even being finished. OK, no cute mascot. Still, if this event happens, say, in the next month, will Monero be ready to benefit from it? Because even rent by civil war, Hearnia, and constrained capacity, Bitcoin is. Even unfinished, Ethereum is. But Monero? Not so much. Even Dogecoin is! Such Sad, Very Despair.

Some good issues raised but I am sure most people involved are aware of the challenges.

As for the bolded part:

http://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/#USD



EDIT: To be clear I totally support a more even distribution across exchanges but that is obviously up to the exchanges and the traders.

[aerbax]

and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

We have technical superiority. 

Ring signatures in our core are pretty badass.  Privacy and untraceability are not add-ons, or plugins, or features still to be implemented for Monero.

Other coins are touting their privacy as "soon" while their accessibility is "now".  We have the opposite approach - but popular opinion seems to prefer the former.

[klee]

http://www.blockcy.com/bitcoin-vault-making-bitcoin-theft-impossible

Killer app or the nail in the coffin for Bitcoin??

EDIT: https://t.co/UOmKJ1czLh

https://twitter.com/el33th4xor/status/704372103462690816
https://twitter.com/el33th4xor/status/704372301505105920

[flagel8]

and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

We have technical superiority. 

Ring signatures in our core are pretty badass.  Privacy and untraceability are not add-ons, or plugins, or features still to be implemented for Monero.

Other coins are touting their privacy as "soon" while their accessibility is "now".  We have the opposite approach - but popular opinion seems to prefer the former.

Very much agree on the technical superiority. But what good is that if not enough people know about it? Based on market caps, Monero's technical superiority is not enough to overcome its marketing inferiority (sorry, it pains me to write this). We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

[aminorex]

If some entity/entities decide to invest 1 billion usd into XMR, and let's assume only 10 % of Moneros are possible to get at any money (most will be held in cold storages as nobody is selling in need of money but for the urgency to help the Moneroless society around). Then, 1 000 000 000 usd / 1 844 500 xmr = 542 usd/xmr.
I think 10 % availability rate is pretty realistic as there are some selling taking place when the price rises. At current prices only a fraction is traded, and even the same coin is probably traded several times within a day back and forth.

Reach out to libertarians Koch brothers then. An easier route is to lay off the pipe.

hey, that's only 7 yuan per capital PRC.  Seems low-ball to me.  Once you run out of 50kUSD smurfs, or that channel gets squeezed, what are you gonna do?

[americanpegasus]

To lighten the air, I thought this was neat.  I tried to do a 'highest unique bidder' game on the Doge Blockchain a couple of years ago right before Monero was released.  
  
It obviously failed spectacularly and I learned a valuable lesson from it about why public ledgers are not the ultimate solution.  
  
https://www.reddit.com/r/dogebetting/comments/1u7fwv/game_grand_theft_ɖoge_v_break_into_the_vault/

[birr]

http://www.blockcy.com/bitcoin-vault-making-bitcoin-theft-impossible

Killer app or the nail in the coffin for Bitcoin??

EDIT: https://t.co/UOmKJ1czLh

https://twitter.com/el33th4xor/status/704372103462690816
https://twitter.com/el33th4xor/status/704372301505105920

Very not impressed.  The writer sounds like he's a bit out of the loop.
One:
If you need to "reconnect to the internet ever so briefly," as he writes, then it must mean you are exposing something, whether it be a private key or a passphrase.  You never need to do either of those things.  You can do offline signing and never expose a private key, ever.  You can keep your passphrase software for generating private keys isolated, too.
Two:
If you feel the need to implement a security protocol that includes burning your coins, then you should start looking for a dishwashing job and get food stamps.

[aminorex]

Very much agree on the technical superiority. But what good is that if not enough people know about it? Based on market caps, Monero's technical superiority is not enough to overcome its marketing inferiority (sorry, it pains me to write this). We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

You know where github is, right?

Anyhow,  rushing it would only poison the well.  You don't want to get a reputation as not-ready-for-prime-time, because when you are ready, with all the UX issues nailed, then its too late to catch the next big event-based market need, as everyone has moved on to a lower-grade solution, which has become habitual, stolen the mind-share, gained the network effects &c.

The impediment to marketing is not lack of marketing.  It is lack of readiness for marketing.  To solve that you can fund a project on the forum, and/or provide pull requests.  Personally, I figure the big market need comes in about a year from now, when financial repression gets serious worldwide.  Being ready when that happens will be important.

Meanwhile, we are accruing early adopters on an ongoing basis.  The community is definitely growing.  You can buy more stuff, liquidity is rising, technology and infrastructure is improving in many areas, and not slipping in any significant area.  Prospects are very very good, fundamentally.  

I frankly appreciate the price here.  It's a wee high for accumulation IMO, but I keep dribbling, because, hey, you never know when it moons, and FOMO.  DCA means nothing if you start timing it.  And I've proven to myself that I can fail massively when timing it.  My only really good timing moves (other than buying OTC before polo) have been when I had inside info (or more accurately, public info which I believed while the market remained skeptical).

[aerbax]

...
We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

If we're using comic book metaphors, I think we're about to become X-Men's Beast - superhuman strength with genius level intellect.

[dEBRUYNE]

and 15 million USD
Oh, that, LOL. Forgot to mention that. Dunno, but they have it, and we don't. It's yet another strength that they have, and that we have to somehow overcome. Have to hit'em where they ain't. Dogecoin did it with a mascot and a friendly community.

How're we going to do it? Don't know. When some guy attacks me, and he has 50 pounds on me, well, that's an advantage, maybe an unfair one, but I have to overcome it. Or die.

Ethereum is that guy rushing us with 'roid rage, and we're complaining about the illegal juice?!?! Good luck with that.

We have technical superiority. 

Ring signatures in our core are pretty badass.  Privacy and untraceability are not add-ons, or plugins, or features still to be implemented for Monero.

Other coins are touting their privacy as "soon" while their accessibility is "now".  We have the opposite approach - but popular opinion seems to prefer the former.

Very much agree on the technical superiority. But what good is that if not enough people know about it? Based on market caps, Monero's technical superiority is not enough to overcome its marketing inferiority (sorry, it pains me to write this). We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

Fluffypony's presence at the Satoshi Roundtable is already a huge improvent over the status quo. Furthermore, I think in the upcoming months this will only get better.

[tifozi]

zcash team is still researching How To Generate SNARK Parameters Securely

This is a oversimplified article about a very complex problem.

[flagel8]

...
We are the 98 pound genius weakling at the beach. We are still going to get sand kicked in our face. We need to be all 'round good, not excellent, or even the best in some areas, but pitifully deficient in others.

If we're using comic book metaphors, I think we're about to become X-Men's Beast - superhuman strength with genius level intellect.

LOL, good one! Remember Peter Parker, before he was bitten by the spider. A 98 pound weakling genius himself, and then he got the spider powers. I just don't want us to have Peter Parker's terrible timing, and Peter Parker's luck!