[XMR] Monero Speculation

[owm123]

Did that big wall at 200,000 sat  get eaten?

I dont know what big is big, but now there is 10btc sell wall at 200k.

[hiddensphinx]

Did that big wall at 200,000 sat  get eaten?

I dont know what big is big, but now there is 10btc sell wall at 200k.

It was 60BTC few hours ago it's got eaten

[americanpegasus]

Did that big wall at 200,000 sat  get eaten?

 
Yeah, I was watching it get taken out in chunks of 1000 earlier in amazement.  Afterwards, someone panick'ed and put up another 6,000 Monero buy wall at 200k satoshi.  Not sure what that accomplishes, especially if you let it get slowly eaten away by the accumulation bot.

Today is the day when the emission of Monero is sub 10 000 XMR/day for the first time.

That's amazing!  Now a slow fall until 432 Monero per day in the year 2022.  By then 432 Monero will likely be a fortune.  It seems like a long way away, but it's not - just 6 short years.

[ArticMine]

On Monday, bitcoin users were up in arms about their transactions taking a long time to be processed by the network, potentially foreshadowing dark, deeply annoying times for the cryptocurrency.

In the past, network slowdowns were the work of hackers or other malicious actors. But this time, the reason for the frustration appears to be much more unsettling and banal. In the absence of any obvious spam transactions or attackers claiming responsibility, some users complained that the bitcoin network is slowing down simply because people are using it the way it’s meant to be used.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/bitcoin-new-normal-slow-confirmation-block-size-debate

This is Monero's other lesser known strength: The adaptive blocksize limit and tail emission coming into play. I have been following this blocksize issue in Bitcoin for over four years now and actually found out about Monero back in 2014 while researching this issue in Bitcoin. If transactions take forever to confirm then a coin becomes effectively unusable. As much as I hate to say this I still remain convinced that this is Bitcoin's Achilles' heel.

[dnaleor]

While Monero has three pillars, ZCash has three foibles: 
 
- The existence of Genesis key shards can never guarantee you can trust the Blockchain implicitly. 
 
- Opaque Blockchain means you can never be sure someone hasn't exploited a flaw and counterfeited tokens.  If such a flaw were discovered and patched, you would still never be able trust the Blockchain again. 
 
- Lack of a view key means there is no way to prove you control an address or offer optional auditability without granting control of your funds to another entity. 

I'll add that there is no plausible deniability about the status of mined coins:
Mining happens publicly. When you want to spend your mined coins anonymously, it will be visible that you anonymized them.
This is for example a hugh problem for the ZCash fund that will receive the 20% tax from the mining rewards during the first 4 years. This will lead to 10% of the total supply (2.1M Zcash) publicly visible. Market could respond negatively when these coins are touched (this is in fact the satoshi coin problem)

[binaryFate]

While Monero has three pillars, ZCash has three foibles: 
 
- The existence of Genesis key shards can never guarantee you can trust the Blockchain implicitly. 
 
- Opaque Blockchain means you can never be sure someone hasn't exploited a flaw and counterfeited tokens.  If such a flaw were discovered and patched, you would still never be able trust the Blockchain again. 
 
- Lack of a view key means there is no way to prove you control an address or offer optional auditability without granting control of your funds to another entity. 

I'll add that there is no plausible deniability about the status of mined coins:
Mining happens publicly. When you want to spend your mined coins anonymously, it will be visible that you anonymized them.
This is for example a hugh problem for the ZCash fund that will receive the 20% tax from the mining rewards during the first 4 years. This will lead to 10% of the total supply (2.1M Zcash) publicly visible. Market could respond negatively when these coins are touched (this is in fact the satoshi coin problem)

We could rephrase the critical question as "Can miners spend there coins without anyone knowing?". Zcash doesn't pass this test any more than Bitcoin.

[dnaleor]

While Monero has three pillars, ZCash has three foibles:  
  
- The existence of Genesis key shards can never guarantee you can trust the Blockchain implicitly.  
  
- Opaque Blockchain means you can never be sure someone hasn't exploited a flaw and counterfeited tokens.  If such a flaw were discovered and patched, you would still never be able trust the Blockchain again.  
  
- Lack of a view key means there is no way to prove you control an address or offer optional auditability without granting control of your funds to another entity.  

I'll add that there is no plausible deniability about the status of mined coins:
Mining happens publicly. When you want to spend your mined coins anonymously, it will be visible that you anonymized them.
This is for example a hugh problem for the ZCash fund that will receive the 20% tax from the mining rewards during the first 4 years. This will lead to 10% of the total supply (2.1M Zcash) publicly visible. Market could respond negatively when these coins are touched (this is in fact the satoshi coin problem)

We could rephrase the critical question as "Can miners spend there coins without anyone knowing?". Zcash doesn't pass this test any more than Bitcoin.

true, although the satoshi coin problem is a bit more general:

imagine some large BTC wallets (not freshly mined coins). When someone wants to spend those, he needs ring signatures to conceal it. So it's not only about mined coin, but in case of ZCash, it will probably be the main problem

although, I heard reports about anonymizing zcash takes 2 minutes, so I guess exchanges will only send transparent transactions when customers withdraw their zcash. If it plays out like that, this will lead to the same problem as described above...

compare this with Monero, where with the next hard fork, every transaction will have a minimum ring size of 2, so you always have plausible deniability when you send your coins.

[dEBRUYNE]

While Monero has three pillars, ZCash has three foibles:  
  
- The existence of Genesis key shards can never guarantee you can trust the Blockchain implicitly.  
  
- Opaque Blockchain means you can never be sure someone hasn't exploited a flaw and counterfeited tokens.  If such a flaw were discovered and patched, you would still never be able trust the Blockchain again.  
  
- Lack of a view key means there is no way to prove you control an address or offer optional auditability without granting control of your funds to another entity.  

I'll add that there is no plausible deniability about the status of mined coins:
Mining happens publicly. When you want to spend your mined coins anonymously, it will be visible that you anonymized them.
This is for example a hugh problem for the ZCash fund that will receive the 20% tax from the mining rewards during the first 4 years. This will lead to 10% of the total supply (2.1M Zcash) publicly visible. Market could respond negatively when these coins are touched (this is in fact the satoshi coin problem)

We could rephrase the critical question as "Can miners spend there coins without anyone knowing?". Zcash doesn't pass this test any more than Bitcoin.

true, although the satoshi coin problem is a bit more general:

imagine some large BTC wallets (not freshly mined coins). When someone wants to spend those, he needs ring signatures to conceal it. So it's not only about mined coin, but in case of ZCash, it will probably be the main problem

although, I heard reports about anonymizing zcash takes 2 minutes, so I guess exchanges will only send transparent transactions when customers withdraw their zcash. If it plays out like that, this will lead to the same problem as described above...

compare this with Monero, where with the next hard fork, every transaction will have a minimum ring size of 2, so you always have plausible deniability when you send your coins.

Since Zerocash will allow both transparent and private transactions, I am curious which one will be used more.

[nioc]

Did that big wall at 200,000 sat  get eaten?

I dont know what big is big, but now there is 10btc sell wall at 200k.

It was 60BTC few hours ago it's got eaten

There is now another wall @200
57 btc//28K XMR

[CrowdWhale]

And yet the market doesn't retreat more than 3%. This guy will run out of ammo soon and then what? There's only so much 27k USD can do to a market trying to gain 10 million or more in market cap. Just a matter of patience.

I don't get why he's selling like that... but that's none of my business

[TechorMarketing]

Today is the day when the emission of Monero is sub 10 000 XMR/day for the first time.

I still consider you a troll because of your history of changing your sentiment 180 degrees (as admitted in your own signature). Nevertheless I enjoy reading your posts and often find they contain some relevant and interesting information.

This google spreadsheet (where I imagine you pulled that data from) is fun to look at:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s

[GingerAle]

And yet the market doesn't retreat more than 3%. This guy will run out of ammo soon and then what? There's only so much 27k USD can do to a market trying to gain 10 million or more in market cap. Just a matter of patience.

I don't get why he's selling like that... but that's none of my business

Because its primer, and he operates a botnet, (well, ok, not really a botnet, but might as well be), and the botnet operators are somewhat incentivized to keep prices low so that there is less interest in mining the coin.

So lets assume botnets are 40% of the hashrate now, at 80 cents / monero. We'll use 10k daily emissions for ease - so thats 4000 xmr / day. Due to xmr's relative small volume, you can control prices with a weeks worth of this emission quite easily. About $22,400 per week

Now, lets bump the price of monero to 5$. Somewhere between 80 cents and 5$, the GPU mining farms switch over to the monero network (from ethereum, litecoin, and Dash). Monero net hash is currently 12 Mh/s. 40% of that is 4.8 Mh/s. Divided by hashrate of 290x (700 h/s), thats 6857 GPUs. So it would take 6857 290x's coming online to decrease the botnets influence by half. So now they are down to 2000 xmr / day, at 2000 * 5$ *7, so we're at $70,000 per week. But the important part is the decrease in xmr they bring in, because the (free, but not free, if you're a botnet sympathizer, and thats ok) xmr provides them the power to control the price.

Take for instance this guy:
https://eth.pp.ua/stats/miner/?address=0xd9176cf582b2f51fad57941e0a84dfba0ed3620d

an ethereum GPU farm operator, obviously. 1476 MH/s on ethereum is roughly 60 290x's. Whole ethereum hashrate 12744, which is 509 290x's. Now I don't know how much infrastructure is in the litecoin, dash, or other networks, but it could be calculated, and I bet there's ~7000 290x mining units out there.

http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency/?sort=hashrate&dir=desc

check that out - ignore the sha256 ones, and look for the network hashrate.



So obviously this is just a theory, but in general my point is there are logical reasons to provide a downward pressure on Monero's price.

[CrowdWhale]

The rate at which his sell walls are eaten (there were at least another 30 BTC sold at 200k besides the two 64 BTC walls) seems unsustainable. He's going to run out of XMR. Sell walls can control the price short term, but after a while the market cap will be the market cap. The only way to prevent a longer term increase is to actually decrease interest in the coin.

Just look at the 30 minute candles. Long wicks. Surprisingly few people have panic sold, but when they do the bots (and a few actual people, I assume) just eat it right back up.

A 25 million market cap is in the works and it'll take a lot more than this guy's got to stop it.

[hiddensphinx]

Exodus?

https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/704651674170880000

[dEBRUYNE]

Exodus?

https://twitter.com/fluffyponyza/status/704651674170880000

More info is on the site: http://www.exodus.io/

Here is a brief video explaining what they do and how the wallet works:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dl0gxBSpP0A&feature=youtu.be

It's basically a GUI wallet that can hold multiple coins (only the ones that are implemented by Exodus though).

EDIT: The wallet isn't released yet, you can sign up for early preview afaik.

[medusa13]

be carefull here. maybe he sells 50% now and use the rest to dump it down with one precisely timed dump(thats what i would do tbh)
first feed the longs, then destroy them.

i dont think he would take such a big risk if he doesnt see a chance for himself to succeed with his plan. If we can not see a realistic chance for him to succeed, maybe we dont know everything yet ?

those who have been around know sentiment can turn around really really fast. now you think he is running out of coins. But only some time later you will be asking yourself where the hell all those coins are coming from. Damn i remember the time, the bulls had no chance.

now it looks different, at least temporal. but once the big dumps start, who really has enough ammo to step in? those who do allready have enough coins i guess.



maybe its me that can not see that times changed now. much more sponatious 1-4k buys now. still, a 50k+ dump will cause panic easily

edit:exodus.io is huge news!!. i love it, good job everyone

[hiddensphinx]

just downloaded Exodus..looks very slick

XMR not implemented yet..their website says summer 2016 

[tifozi]

Monero's userbase seems to have grown a lot over the last few months. Everyone in crypto space seems to be aware of it and most hold decent positions, except perhaps a lot of big names who are condescendingly avoiding discussions about it, hence the slow march upwards.

[aminorex]

I am becoming increasingly bullish.

[persiancat]

Hello everyone. First time poster here.

I've done some research on Monero (vis-a-vis BTC and ETH) and decided to get some XMR.
It's now sitting snugly in simplewallet.

I have a question for moneroj-mining experts here.

Will the upcoming Nvidia Pascal cards significantly up the hashrate per GPU?

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/134957/20160220/nvidia-pascal-gp100-gpu-to-rock-4-tflops-double-precision-12-tflops-single-precision-processing-power.htm

The upcoming Pascal is much anticipated for its more efficient 16nm FinFET architecture and will have up to 16GB of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

Or is it more fuss-free to simply rent servers via Interserver or AWS and use it for remote mining?
Let's take the cost of electricity out of the equation first.

Thanks and appreciate all the ongoing intelligent discussion here.