[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

Any opinions on if there is a bitcoin pump around the halving if Monero will be pegged to bitcoin or fiat?

I think we'll we'll stay pegged to fiat.

XMR under a dollar?  Too good to be true.

What happened to your Cartman avatar?

[1715629353]

1715629353

[DaveyJones]

you can read my observations here.

I agree ... the pumping power of Max and Karl is to no be underestimated as also Quark and Maxcoin showed for a short period of time after the BTC Crash. I think they now remain silent with the BnktoTheFuture and Startcoin stuff till the next big bubble happens.

[pa]

I've never quite understood what's in it for the market makers who provide liquidity. How profitable is it to provide liquidity? How risky is it? Does it entail spending time and energy staring at tickers and charts, or just running a bot? Can such bots be exploited by other market makers?

[vuduchyld]

Oy, the (lack of) volume...

Maybe I'll get some work done this weekend.  Watch some NBA playoffs.  Who knows.

[dEBRUYNE]

Oy, the (lack of) volume...

Maybe I'll get some work done this weekend.  Watch some NBA playoffs.  Who knows.

Lack of / declining volume is usually a good sign in a retrace.

[slapper]

Not kissing anyone's ass, it is just factual. You'll probably want to read the entire post:

[...]

1. I already provided the link to the thread two or three times in this thread, which explains that ICOs sold to non-accredited USA investors are ostensibly illegal.

I hate ICOs by now for other reasons:

2. They contribute to the mainstream thinking that crypto-currency is a scam and thus we will have great difficulty getting CC widely adopted if don't put a stop to these scams.

3. They extract capital to a few scammers, which could be better used to build our real ecosystems which are not vaporware and have real decentralized designs, such as Bitcoin and Monero.

[...]

Too little and too late. For months and months you have been creating Monero hatorade in the forums and enabling Monero haters. No wonder faggots out of nowhere were busy creating scamcoins and ICOs stealing peoples money. Same goes for the ultimate delusional prick that is Spoetnik (and I am the one who had left him a positive feedback for him exposing Blocknet scam).

[inca]

Any opinions on if there is a bitcoin pump around the halving if Monero will be pegged to bitcoin or fiat?

If BTC rally all alts will lose value compared to BTC. After few weeks when new people come in crypto most alts will start getting value back or even improve it.

Pretty much agree. Also I really find almost impossible the halving pump to happen. When everyone expects something it doesn´t happen.

Edit: It seems we all agree on that topic... maybe we are groupthinking too much??

If you count everybody who says that "everybody expects bitcoin to pump so it won't happen" there's actually quite a few. So not everybody expect bitcoin to pump and that's why it will happen But maybe the pump won't be as big... In any case as long as bitcoin goes up now I think XMR is headed sub 0.002 again.

So easy to spot those who have sold and are egging others on to do so.

The truth is no one here knows what will happen if btc bubbles again. Last time it happened in 2013 litecoin hit 45$.

If you like monero for it's merits then it is up to you to decide whether you should buy any. Asking for advice on here is not likely to achieve anything other than revealing a few vocal posters current positions.

On November 17th LTC was worth $4. At that time BTC had already had a significant rally up to around $460. $4/460 = 0.0087 BTC/LTC. Now that's a pretty low rate, in fact LTC didn't fall much further that year (I believe the bottom was in the 0.007x area).

All altcoins got slaughter until all of sudden, on 18th and forward they started pumping. I know who played a great part in the LTC pump of 2013 and you can read my observations here.

We can't always assume that history will repeat, but if we look at the previous two bubbles the same thing has happened. First altcoins suffer really bad while BTC rallies. Altcoins are reaching new lows and BTC new highs. Then once the BTC rally is getting out of control altcoins starts going up. So, if your argument against the price going lower because LTC went to $48 is going to be logically consistent you will need to expect a significant crash in XMR, perhaps in the lower 0.001x. THEN a pump to something like 0.05.

It's true, nobody really knows what will happen, but this is a speculation topic. I speculate that XMR will be dropping sub 0.002. The reasons why:
1. The violent crash we had breaking all support and taking most by surprise.
2. BTC rally
3. ETH is crashing and I think ETH dragged monero up with it. Now it's going to drag us down.

My theory fails if #2 or #3 changes. I believe I am allowed to voice my opinion regarding the price even if it's negative. Why do you not attack people who think the price is going to $1000 soon? If you're going to be logical consistent with your attacks, you should also attack those who currently hold monero and are talking their book, but in a bullish way.

I suspect that you are emotionally invested, probably in a loss, and attack me because I'm not bullish (short-term). If this topic is going to anything but a circlejerk, opinions from both sides of the table should be accepted.

What is funny is a) you felt my neutral post was aimed at you and b) claiming I am attacking you. Read my post again and calm down. Way to prove a point though. Oh and for the record I think my average buy in for monero is probably well below where you sold yours as this coin has a really strange oscillating price which stung some early entrants..

[TPTB_need_war]

Z.cash's Equihash REKTED?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1342065.msg14563245#msg14563245

[TheKoziTwo]

What is funny is a) you felt my neutral post was aimed at you and b) claiming I am attacking you. Read my post again and calm down. Way to prove a point though. Oh and for the record I think my average buy in for monero is probably well below where you sold yours as this coin has a really strange oscillating price which stung some early entrants..

You've been consistently attacking people who has been bearish for the last couple of weeks. Not just me. This was just one of your many posts I decided to quote.

[birr]

I've never quite understood what's in it for the market makers who provide liquidity. How profitable is it to provide liquidity? How risky is it? Does it entail spending time and energy staring at tickers and charts, or just running a bot? Can such bots be exploited by other market makers?

If you use limit orders, you are a liquidity provider.  And if you can maintain your own liquidity (don't get in a bind) while doing so, you will most likely make money.  It's pretty simple in concept, not necessarily easy.

[GreekBitcoin]

Sooo, if anyone thinks that we are eventually going back under 0.002, and antimoneroists? are back posting in the tread, does that means that we are about to rally???


I am just waiting for Herp to come back and give the buy signal.

[Nxtblg]

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need.

Would you mind making each future market prediction in a binary form (which can be objectively judged as true or false by a specified date) along with a specific numeric probability estimate (which you can subsequently update any time)?

Probabilistic predictions are okay as long as you keep a comprehensive list of all of them. You can then test how many of the "80%" predictions are satisfied relative to the ideal 80%.

Now that you mention it, I'm surprised that someone hasn't done that with Gallup's huge swath of polls.

[Nxtblg]

Bullish indicator: look at all the Monero trashing threads on page 1 of Altcoin Discussion.

I love it!

Heh! Welcome to the world of contrary-opinion trading.

[Nxtblg]

We can't always assume that history will repeat, but if we look at the previous two bubbles the same thing has happened. First altcoins suffer really bad while BTC rallies. Altcoins are reaching new lows and BTC new highs. Then once the BTC rally is getting out of control altcoins starts going up. So, if your argument against the price going lower because LTC went to $48 is going to be logically consistent you will need to expect a significant crash in XMR, perhaps in the lower 0.001x. THEN a pump to something like 0.05.

If you're a long-term-oriented fellow and want to put some BTC behind the above scenario, an interesting way to do so is to buy some XMR @ Polo and lend it out on the Lending market. I'm doing exactly that with the Factom Factoids I've got.

It's a fascinating market because the loan rates are so volatile. As I write this, the low offer on the Factom market is 0.0049% and yet I've got several loans (with me as the creditor) at rates ranging from 0.0025% to 0.0475%. I ain't getting rich by doing this - three of my seven loans are teeny in terms of principal and ~25% of my Factoids are unborrowed - but it's a low-risk way to build up some coins that takes advantage of a volatile but uptrending market. As the old saying has it: if you're in a boom town and buying gold pans, you'll likely go broke; if you're in a boom town and selling gold pans, you'll likely prosper.

[vuduchyld]

Sooo, if anyone thinks that we are eventually going back under 0.002, and antimoneroists? are back posting in the tread, does that means that we are about to rally???


I am just waiting for Herp to come back and give the buy signal.

Probably everybody is right.  Sometime in the next 4-6 weeks, I'd suspect we are likely to go up above .0027 or .0028 (which would be a significant jump from here) and ALSO quite possibly below .002. 

[r0ach]

then perhaps orders-of-magnitude more electrically efficient, since the electric consumption will be primarily in the computation and not in the memory. And computation can be radically optimized on an ASIC.

As I predicted when I wrote in the Monero thread about this the other day, it appears the white paper didn't consider electricity as the most important factor. Duh.

The thing with memory hardened vs computationally bound is, on a card like an r9 290, you could get something like 175w power use for something not memory hardened (keccak), while on a memory hardened algo that's also obviously using lots of computation (any scrypt type derivative), power use would be through the roof at something like 250w+.  GPUs seem very power inefficient in terms of dealing with memory configuration parlor tricks, so if they ever do get implemented in ASICs, the power consumption advantage is always enormous.

[smooth]

then perhaps orders-of-magnitude more electrically efficient, since the electric consumption will be primarily in the computation and not in the memory. And computation can be radically optimized on an ASIC.

As I predicted when I wrote in the Monero thread about this the other day, it appears the white paper didn't consider electricity as the most important factor. Duh.

The thing with memory hardened vs computationally bound is, on a card like an r9 290, you could get something like 175w power use for something not memory hardened (keccak), while on a memory hardened algo that's also obviously using lots of computation (any scrypt type derivative), power use would be through the roof at something like 250w+.  GPUs seem very power inefficient in terms of dealing with memory configuration parlor tricks, so if they ever do get implemented in ASICs, the power consumption advantage is always enormous.

Scrypt is not memory bound on GPUs. That is precisely the problem. Using the lookup gap technique it became possible for scrypt's (reduced) scratchpad to fit in local memory and not require scratchpad access on every iteration, so it becomes highly parallel and somewhat CPU bound.

Allegedly the equihash algorithm is provably resistant to such tricks. Still, it does have a compute component, and that could potentially be made more power efficient. Possibly the memory access pattern could also be exploited, since it is (I think) not necessarily random like with a cryptographic scratchpad-type algorithm.

[Hueristic]

Z.cash's Equihash REKTED?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1342065.msg14563245#msg14563245

Didn't you say any topic title with a question mark means NO?

Reading thread now.

[smooth]

Z.cash's Equihash REKTED?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1342065.msg14563245#msg14563245

Didn't you say any topic title with a question mark means NO?

Reading thread now.

That's a fair conclusion here

There are some potential future issues but it is hardly REKT, for now at least.

In terms of quantum-resistance we have bigger problems to worry about (and so does Zcash)

[bitjedi]

Z.cash's Equihash REKTED?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1342065.msg14563245#msg14563245

Didn't you say any topic title with a question mark means NO?

Reading thread now.

That's a fair conclusion here

There are some potential future issues but it is hardly REKT, for now at least.

In terms of quantum-resistance we have bigger problems to worry about (and so does Zcash)

This is a non-issue as the PoW can be forked easily.  If the current NIST recommended encryption curves and algorithms are broken with quantum computing... well, yes, we have bigger issues as smooth points out.