[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

I wonder if the third time will be the charm.  Kinda feels like it.

I think so.  Bitcoin use is growing, but XMR is likely to displace a lot of the current use cases over the next 2 years, so selling seems stupid, so supply is likely to be tight and demand high.  Yes there are some stupid or greedy holders, so maybe you can scoop the occasional dump, but mostly, no, not gonna happen.

[birr]

Any idea when mymonero.com is going to start allowing logins again?  It's totally stuck.  I've been trying to log in for the better part of an hour.

[cAPSLOCK]

Any idea when mymonero.com is going to start allowing logins again?  It's totally stuck.  I've been trying to log in for the better part of an hour.

I just logged in.

[birr]

It's something about this wifi I'm on.  It won't let me use vpn either.  I used my cell data connection and was able to log in.  Sorry for the distraction.  Carry on!

[TrueCryptonaire]

I wonder if the third time will be the charm.  Kinda feels like it.

I think so.  Bitcoin use is growing, but XMR is likely to displace a lot of the current use cases over the next 2 years, so selling seems stupid, so supply is likely to be tight and demand high.  Yes there are some stupid or greedy holders, so maybe you can scoop the occasional dump, but mostly, no, not gonna happen.

Dumping any coin without any serious reason is stupid. If you need to get rid of larger amount of coins, more profitable options are to arrange OTC trade or sell slowly to the markets if you do not want to reveal anything to your opponent.

[Anon136]

I wonder if the third time will be the charm.  Kinda feels like it.

I think so.  Bitcoin use is growing, but XMR is likely to displace a lot of the current use cases over the next 2 years, so selling seems stupid, so supply is likely to be tight and demand high.  Yes there are some stupid or greedy holders, so maybe you can scoop the occasional dump, but mostly, no, not gonna happen.

Dumping any coin without any serious reason is stupid. If you need to get rid of larger amount of coins, more profitable options are to arrange OTC trade or sell slowly to the markets if you do not want to reveal anything to your opponent.

I love the idea of running a dark order-book for otc trade. I've tried a couple of times but none have ever taken off. Do let me know if you guys are ever interested. I have developed a very strong reputation as an escrow provider.

[TheKoziTwo]

I'm pleased to see my prediction come true so soon, despite no GUI. That the two largest dark markets are now looking into integrating monero is fantastic. If there was any event that really got bitcoin into mainstream media it was Silk Road. I don't think the effect on Monero will be the same as media has already spun that story. But it seems to me the darknet market is quite large (e.g 100k subs on reddit), so usage in itself could bring us a lot of new users, and a higher price. But more importantly we will probably see a great influx of volume and that makes monero better for everyone, even without price increases.

These news alone makes me incredible bullish, without even taking into consideration that RingCT is also coming up, which will make the anonymity of monero godly.

Every single one who bought and held monero since September 11th 2014 is now in profit. The major resistance is broken. People buying in today will likely have a higher target for selling, so I think we can easily continue from here to 500k+ XMR. I dare not predict where this will top out.

Also, due to the 1000 XMR withdraw limit on poloniex it can be time consuming to withdraw larger amounts. I've written a simple script that let's you withdraw tens of thousands of XMR super quick. https://github.com/TheKoziTwo/poloniex-mass-withdraw

As a side note, I have begun market making in bitsquare and will continue for the next weeks to increase bids/asks. The trading there has started to pick up, and I encourage everyone to try it out. An anonymous crypto needs a way to exchange with full privacy. With bitsquare there is no id requirements and connections are routed through Tor. As a bonus you don't risk your funds with a third party. It can now even be installed on raspberry pi, so it is cheap to keep an instance running 24/7.

[Febo]

Also Monero is not that decentrilized when it comes to the owners. Probably Risto, Warz and a few whales control so high portion of the coin supply that they can wipe everybody out if they so want by dumping Monero literally to the lowest sections of Orwellian hell.
So, the situation is fundamentally the same: In Monero the large owners are whales, in Darkcoin the large owners are the masternodes.

Talking this is total speculation since is impossible to know any holdings. I personally think and speculate none of those 2 gentlemens is one of top5 Monero holders. Maybe are not even in top10.  

You cant compare decentralization of DASH and Monero owners.  I am pretty sure about this,  since Evan and co mined 25% of DASH in first half day. I am sure they have way more then just that since they mined more then only half day.   It is pretty stupid to compare them since Monero is probably one of most decentralized currency in existence.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

Zero chance. Don't be greedy.

I guess I am not able to sell any coins then... 

[novag]

Probable price Monero possible within 0.015-0.02

[pa]

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

I think it has more chances than bitcoin going to 100k, they sure are small but its not zero, the fundamentals are just too strong... decentralized true electronic cash for the first time in history.

I think we'll see both BTCUSD >$100k and XMRUSD >$1k by 2027. Call me an optimist.

[Hueristic]

Crossposted:

I compiled and checked out the GUI and I gotta say I'm really disappointed. It's nothing more than another wrapper. One more vector of attack not plugged. This GUI is no better than the 3rd party ones.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg15986646#msg15986646

[MrGood]

Crossposted:

I compiled and checked out the GUI and I gotta say I'm really disappointed. It's nothing more than another wrapper. One more vector of attack not plugged. This GUI is no better than the 3rd party ones.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg15986646#msg15986646

What do you want it to do? Make you a sandwich?

[aminorex]

Do you think Monero will rise to 1000 usd/xmr? How realistic you guys see it reaching 1000 usd (assuming btc is more or less the same as today)?

Zero chance. Don't be greedy.

I am a thorough-going Bayesian, so I think the posterior is conditioned on the prior.  My priors favor a scenario in which $25 XMR is the central estimate for 2018 average.  Past 2018 there are too many conditional factors of unknown distribution to provide credible intervals for inference, so I prefer not to make estimates past that point, but if a $25 average, or higher, were realized in 2018, then it would seem less unlikely than you suggest.  Until then, I can't or won't say.

[TheKoziTwo]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

[aminorex]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

[dEBRUYNE]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Probabilities

[TheKoziTwo]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Probably the most likely scenario would be better technology replacing XMR, or simply something like zcash that is better marketed and becomes mass adopted while XMR stagnates into nothing.

[birr]

The monero network is still small and weak enough that it's vulnerable to an attack by the state, is it not?
It would cost the U.S. government peanuts to attack monero and crush it.