[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first  

If bitcoin would go to 300$ again, would this be enough news to have Monero 'moon' to 0.006?

That would be a real btc bear market so if that is the btc price I wouldn't count on that being the Monero price.  Ofc it depends on why.

I just remembered why I originally said September.  There is a hard fork scheduled for September.  The ever present dangling carrot of the GUI alluded to with the timely code words   which doesn't need a hard fork, as well as RingCT which will happen this year.  Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.  A have a vague memory that it does and that it should be ready in time.

Edit:  to me Monero moon is predicated on Monero strength not btc weakness.

I believe he is speaking in relation to and assuming inverse proportionality with his question.

Yes but as aminorex said, 300 won't happen.  As far as inverse proportionality, again it depends on how and why the movements.  Bottom line, no matter where btc goes, in the long run Monero's price relative to btc will be higher.  .....and yet recently I have been buying more btc than Monero.  I guess I was looking at inverse proportionality which did recently last for a little while and then ended.  I kept waiting for Monero to go down and look where we are now   This has made me start to re evaluate when to add to my Monero stash.  Doesn't seem I have much time to decide.


I appreciate the clarity and breadth of aminorex's posts, something I am incapable of.  Also when his posts are convoluted there is more hidden there as well.

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[dEBRUYNE]

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first  

If bitcoin would go to 300$ again, would this be enough news to have Monero 'moon' to 0.006?

That would be a real btc bear market so if that is the btc price I wouldn't count on that being the Monero price.  Ofc it depends on why.

I just remembered why I originally said September.  There is a hard fork scheduled for September.  The ever present dangling carrot of the GUI alluded to with the timely code words   which doesn't need a hard fork, as well as RingCT which will happen this year.  Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.  A have a vague memory that it does and that it should be ready in time.

Edit:  to me Monero moon is predicated on Monero strength not btc weakness.

It does, it's a consensus change.

[_nur]

where can i see the volume of xmr on bitsq?

[novag]

where can i see the volume of xmr on bitsq?

On poloniex.

[smoothie]

 Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.  

I believe it does require a HF.

[TrueCryptonaire]

 Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.  

I believe it does require a HF.

Believing is not knowing.

[smoothie]

 Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.  

I believe it does require a HF.

Believing is not knowing.

Yes and that was the purpose of my statement to make sure to present my view as it could be possibly wrong as I am no expert on monero entirely.

I did carefully read the RingCT white paper by Shen and from what I gathered from all the math, it does require a HF....and yes I BELIEVE.  

 

What do you KNOW?

[sandiman]

Someone please explain the "aminorex/XMR bullish correlation" to me?  I've never heard of that particular Trend Analysis technique!

When there is a bull run and aminorex makes supportive comments about it some people correlate that to a dump in the near future.

It may be true or it may be bias stemming from the fact that some people give credence to what he says as well as the fact that every bull run inevitably ends with a dump.

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first 

Welcome Jon, will you make monero king of the seven kingdom ? or maybe make it the only true god 

[nioc]

Someone please explain the "aminorex/XMR bullish correlation" to me?  I've never heard of that particular Trend Analysis technique!

When there is a bull run and aminorex makes supportive comments about it some people correlate that to a dump in the near future.

It may be true or it may be bias stemming from the fact that some people give credence to what he says as well as the fact that every bull run inevitably ends with a dump.

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first 

Welcome Jon, will you make monero king of the seven kingdom ? or maybe make it the only true god 

When I read your post I draw a complete blank.  In regards to the bolded, it's the same as saying it's only speculation.  Just don't want people to listen to me merely because I'm "legendary" 

In other news; after posting here yesterday it seems I talked myself into buying more today.  

[noobtrader]

wow... 

after bitcoin, ethereum and now Monero too want to do hardfork would be interestin i say  LOL, maybe i should short this thing in case the price tanked because hardfork failed

PS:  my view are purely speculation in accordance to the thread title... 

[aminorex]

XMR requires new terminology to distinguish the regularly scheduled fork.  "Firm fork" seems inevitable.

[iamnotback]

XMR requires new terminology to distinguish the regularly scheduled fork.  "Firm fork" seems inevitable.

Sorry a hard fork is a hard fork. Monero is not decentralized. Some marketing buzzwords attempting to hide that fact will backfire eventually.

How about you finish the project and stop forking it. Then go create a new project with the new features you want to add.

Eventually you need to take off the training wheels, if you want the community to take it seriously as a decentralized protocol that no one can overpower. But any way, Satoshi's design doesn't really remain decentralized anyway, so I guess it is pointless. We just need to admit that none of this stuff is decentralized and we are wasting our time.

[nioc]

wow... 

after bitcoin, ethereum and now Monero too want to do hardfork would be interestin i say  LOL, maybe i should short this thing in case the price tanked because hardfork failed

PS:  my view are purely speculation in accordance to the thread title... 

Harforks are scheduled every 6 months.  The first one was this past March and went fairly smoothly.  The next one is scheduled sometime in September, it happens at a particular block height.  RingCT requires a hardfork and may or may not be ready for the September hardfork.

[nioc]

XMR requires new terminology to distinguish the regularly scheduled fork.  "Firm fork" seems inevitable.

A rose by any other name........

Is it or is it not a rose?

[ArticMine]

XMR requires new terminology to distinguish the regularly scheduled fork.  "Firm fork" seems inevitable.

Sorry a hard fork is a hard fork. Monero is not decentralized. Some marketing buzzwords attempting to hide that fact will backfire eventually.

How about you finish the project and stop forking it. Then go create a new project with the new features you want to add.

Eventually you need to take off the training wheels, if you want the community to take it seriously as a decentralized protocol that no one can overpower. But any way, Satoshi's design doesn't really remain decentralized anyway, so I guess it is pointless. We just need to admit that none of this stuff is decentralized and we are wasting our time.

... and use proof of burn of coins in the old project to create the coins in the new project?

[GingerAle]

XMR requires new terminology to distinguish the regularly scheduled fork.  "Firm fork" seems inevitable.

Sorry a hard fork is a hard fork. Monero is not decentralized. Some marketing buzzwords attempting to hide that fact will backfire eventually.

How about you finish the project and stop forking it. Then go create a new project with the new features you want to add.

Eventually you need to take off the training wheels, if you want the community to take it seriously as a decentralized protocol that no one can overpower. But any way, Satoshi's design doesn't really remain decentralized anyway, so I guess it is pointless. We just need to admit that none of this stuff is decentralized and we are wasting our time.

no one aint never said that the governance is decentralized. At some point humans do stuff. Its what the humans do thats important, not the fact that they're doing stuff.

[nioc]

XMR requires new terminology to distinguish the regularly scheduled fork.  "Firm fork" seems inevitable.

A rose by any other name........

Is it or is it not a rose?

aminorex, sorry I missed the distinction of "regularly scheduled".

[saddambitcoin]

Hard fork has a bad stigma because to date it implies "emergency!", but Monero is changing that. These are planned rolling hard forks. Every 6 months there will be code freeze where the new changes could be implemented 7 months after that.

Example timeline(paraphrased from Fluffypony's example in the Monero Missive):

Feb 15th: code freeze, new version is tagged and released
March 15th: 6 month countdown begins
September 15th and later: Hard fork can be activated! but ONLY if 75-80% of the blocks mined in the past week have been mined with the latest version. if not, no fork!

I like this practice. It's proactive, the community knows about it, there is consensus, the fork does not happen until there are enough nodes mining on the new version. It keeps development resilient and allows improvements/changes/features to easily be incorporated without the *panic* and fighting that we see in other crypto.

Look how difficult it is for Bitcoin to change when it needs to.

I miss the part where decentralized means "no changes, ever". If the community decides in the future that a hard fork is not wanted, they can indeed overpower the core team by not using the new version.

This podcast presents a good explanation of the reasoning behind the rolling hard forks:
https://getmonero.org/2016/06/20/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2016-06-20.html

[Hueristic]

no one aint never said that the governance is decentralized. At some point humans do stuff. Its what the humans do thats important, not the fact that they're doing stuff.

Hey trolldev, can we make the next rolling fork only create 50 mil coins this time? I think the last 100 million was too much.

[aminorex]

XMR requires new terminology to distinguish the regularly scheduled fork.  "Firm fork" seems inevitable.

Sorry a hard fork is a hard fork. Monero is not decentralized. Some marketing buzzwords attempting to hide that fact will backfire eventually.

How about you finish the project and stop forking it. Then go create a new project with the new features you want to add.

Eventually you need to take off the training wheels, if you want the community to take it seriously as a decentralized protocol that no one can overpower. But any way, Satoshi's design doesn't really remain decentralized anyway, so I guess it is pointless. We just need to admit that none of this stuff is decentralized and we are wasting our time.

How about you actually release something or stop talking?

Dude has a very confrontational and critical style. It makes him a profoundly useful gadfly. But it's very easy to get into pointless disputation, internet argument.

Ambitious people everywhere tend to bite off more than they can chew. I certainly resemble that remark.